Commentary

The Compute Capital Supercycle: AI’s Silent Infrastructure Revolution

In the history of technological progress, there's often a critical misreading. We think the leap is in the product—the engine, the chip, the app.

Commentary

The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same

In the current land of uncertainty the markets and investors find themselves in, the monthly Employment Situation report is ‘must-see TV’ and will remain that way for the foreseeable future.

Commentary

The Infrastructure That Lets the Future Happen

If we lived in a world where mobile signals were visible, the sky would shimmer like a storm—layers of frequencies rolling over rooftops, crossing oceans and saturating valleys.

Commentary

Jobs Report Yields Sigh of Relief

Last week’s employment report was an important stabilizer for the markets. After concerning revisions and weak ADP numbers raised recession alarms, Friday’s payrolls print calmed fears on labor market deterioration.

Commentary

Trump, Powell & Rates: Tariffs On, Tariffs Off

With tariffs toggling on and off and a major tax bill still in flux, investors should brace for headline-driven volatility through July, particularly around trade and fiscal policy.

Commentary

Economic Data Surprises, While China Tensions Resurface

The economic narrative took a decisive turn last week. A stunning collapse in the trade deficit suggests we could be looking at near 4% GDP growth in the second quarter—a massive upward revision from the consensus of 2%.

Commentary

Gold's Safe-haven Status to Propel it to Significant New Highs

Gold reached a fresh all-time high in April, continuing its strong upward trajectory over the past six months.

Commentary

Investors May Sell in May Until Japan’s JGB Problem Goes Away

Remember last July and August when the yen carry trade blew up? At the time, the central bank surprised the market by signaling a faster pace of rate hikes than expected. Investors sold foreign currency, bought back yen and sent markets into a tailspin.

Commentary

Markets Absorb the Noise, Stay Constructive

Friday’s market tremor was ignited not by economic data, which brought limited new releases, but by revived political uncertainty—specifically, President Trump’s abrupt reinvigorated tariff threats.

Commentary

Welcome to the End of Tasks

In 2025, AI crossed a subtle but monumental threshold: it stopped just answering questions and started executing goals.

Commentary

Putting a Downgrade in Perspective

What investors thought was going to be a nice start to a weekend in May got turned around with a late Friday announcement that Moody’s had just downgraded the U.S. long-term credit rating.

Commentary

The Real AI Revolution Is Accessibility

In a year dominated by multimodal marvels and reasoning breakthroughs, perhaps the most economically significant shift in AI went largely underplayed: cost collapse.

Commentary

Downgrades, Debt, and Durable Optimism

After Friday’s close, Moody’s downgraded U.S. treasuries, as S&P had 14 years ago, in 2011. I criticized the downgrade then…and I do now. The government cannot technically default, as the Fed can always buy the bonds for any auction.

Commentary

Are We Half-Way to a Recession?

After a brief reprieve from all the recession talk while the Fed was raising rates to decades-old high watermarks, the ‘R’ word has come back into vogue once again post-Liberation day.

Commentary

Income Without the Volatility…or Credit Exposure

Our overarching theme for U.S. fixed income has been, and will continue to be, based on the premise that interest rates will stay at more historically “normal” levels, but that, within this backdrop, investors will face heightened volatility.