Commentary

Falling Yields Reinforce Equity Market Resilience

The market continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience. Lower oil prices, easing Treasury yields, and the relentless buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure are still providing a favorable backdrop for risk assets.

Commentary

The U.S. Government Just Became a Quantum Investor

The U.S. government’s decision to invest $2 billion directly into nine quantum-computing companies through minority equity stakes—not just grants—signals a major shift toward treating quantum as a strategic commercial industry, with potential implications for investors seeking targeted exposure through funds like the WisdomTree Quantum Computing Fund (WQTM).

Commentary

Potential Iran Settlement Sends Market To Highs

Yes, we have been there before, only to be disappointed. But the market smells a real settlement to open Hormuz, and WTI oil briefly dipped below 90 for the first time in weeks. If an opening occurs, expect the market to continue its march upward, as the momentum trade gathers strength.

Commentary

‘Warsh’ and Dry

I still don’t think the Fed is close to a rate hike, but for the upcoming June FOMC meeting, a shift in the language of the policy statement from an easing bias to one of a ‘balanced’ outlook seems to be the most likely scenario. However, the fed funds futures market has now fully priced in a rate hike for March 2027, a remarkable shift from its pre-war status of discounting almost three rate cuts for the same timeframe.

Commentary

The Mag Seven’s Free Cash Flow Withers

Stocks’ rally off the March 30 lows has been nothing short of wild, with internal market dynamics showing some performance divergences that we haven’t seen for decades. For example, in the first 6 weeks of the rally, the S&P 500 Growth index beat the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index by more than any other 6-week window on record.

Commentary

China Summit Disappointment Stresses Markets

Markets ended last week under pressure as the optimism that had been building around a potential geopolitical breakthrough faded quickly. The China summit did not deliver the progress that had been hoped for. The Boeing aircraft order was smaller than expected; there was no meaningful movement on Iran; the Taiwan issue was brought forward in a way that unsettled markets; and the hoped-for easing of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz did not materialize.

Commentary

What’s ‘Under the Hood’ of Your Core Bond Position?

Typically, an investor’s traditional bond portfolio begins with a cornerstone, or core holding of some sort. From either a strategic or tactical perspective, a core fixed income position provides the investor with some ballast to help anchor any other strategies that may be included.

Commentary

A Resilient Labor Market Delays Fed Cuts

Last week was very strong for the market narrative because the economic data continued to show resilience where it matters most: jobs, earnings, and investor confidence. The latest payroll report was not just stronger than expected; it showed broad private-sector strength, with government jobs actually declining and the prior month revised higher. That is an important distinction.

Commentary

Powell Stays…Should the Dot Plot?

The April FOMC meeting’s four dissents and resistance to maintaining an easing bias signal a higher bar for rate cuts under incoming Chair Warsh, suggesting investors may favor Treasury floating-rate strategies to navigate a prolonged “higher-for-longer” environment.

Commentary

When is 100 Not a Good Score?

While the Middle East war takes on the lion’s share of headlines, and rightfully so, there has been another development in bond-land that has gone relatively unnoticed. Indeed, one concern that crops up in the U.S. Treasury (UST) market is the potential for higher budget deficits from the already lofty current reading.

Commentary

Fed Bias Shifts and Earnings Reinforce Bullish Outlook

The Federal Reserve held rates steady as expected last week, but the real story was the shift in tone inside the Committee. Three dissents in favor of moving to a neutral bias are highly unusual, and I do not recall seeing dissents on a bias in this way before.

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Commentary

Robust 2026-2027 Earnings Growth is a Live Probability

The stock market would love to see nothing more than the labor market holding up. Time and again, we find monetary policy having a beautiful, lagged effect in the jobless claims series. We are of the view that the cumulative 175 basis points of Fed rate cuts that hit the market in 2024 and 2025 is exactly what the labor market needs in 2026-2027. We will soon find out if manufacturing employment continued to mend in April.

Commentary

Powell’s Last Stand & What Comes Next?

For the third consecutive policy gathering, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to remain ‘on hold,’ keeping the fed funds trading range at 3.50%–3.75%. This result was largely expected by the markets. Unfortunately for the Fed, the policymakers are in a challenging position of juggling incoming economic and inflation data as well as the uncertainties emanating from the Middle East war.

Commentary

Strong Earnings with AI Boom Offset Oil Fears

Markets continue to ebb and flow with every headline out of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, but the most important message from the markets is resilience. Earnings season is off to a very strong start, with roughly a 75% beat rate, and the AI investment cycle continues to provide a powerful tailwind for equities.