Join Morten Paulsen, Head of Industrials Research at CLSA and member of the ROBO Global Strategic Advisory Board, for an in-depth look at his latest research report on the accelerating automation of American manufacturing.
Join Sprott Asset Management for an educational webcast exploring rare earths, their growing strategic importance, and the global effort to build secure supply chains outside China.
Valid until the market close on July 31, 2026
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Gasoline prices fell for a seventh straight week, reaching their lowest level in 3.5 months. As of June 29th, weekly prices were down 8 cents for regular and down 9 cents for premium gasoline.
What are consumers thinking about the economy? Their collective mood offers crucial clues for businesses, investors, and policymakers alike. In June, the two leading benchmarks, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), offered similar views with both showing slight improvement despite ongoing inflation concerns.
The OBBBA created something the industry rarely gets: a defined planning window without a hard deadline attached. Exemptions are historically high, the law has no sunset, and there's a real body of existing work that needs revisiting. The advisors who treat this as an opportunity, rather than waiting for a client to ask, will drive much stronger outcomes compared to those who don’t.
Even people whose money beliefs and behaviors align more closely are not necessarily an ideal match. Partners whose predominant money scripts fall into the money vigilance category may both track expenses, openly discuss finances, and hold similar values around saving.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index cooled 6.0 points in June to 56.7, signaling an expansion in regional business activity for a second straight month. The latest reading was higher than the projected 55.7.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) retreated in April, falling 0.1% from the previous month's record high to 441.4.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® inched up in June, rising 0.6 points to 91.2. Despite the improvement, the index came in below the forecast of 94.4.
These are dark days for free-market economists when one of the few areas of bipartisan consensus is for a terrible idea: Both Vice President JD Vance and Senator Bernie Sanders want the federal government to take an explicit stake in AI firms.
The ETF ecosystem is always changing and growing. Thanks to the ETF’s flexibility, transparency, and tradability, it can help investors achieve plenty of bespoke goals. That even includes investing with an eye towards philanthropic causes as with philanthropic ETFs ASD and DUTY.
Oil headed for the biggest quarterly decline since the pandemic as flows through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated following progress on a peace deal, with Morgan Stanley warning of a potential glut ahead.
A sharp rise in the dollar may emerge as one of the biggest “pain trades” in the second half of the year, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.
Meme mania swept through Wall Street in 2021. Retail investors gathered on social media and coordinated trading strategies to short squeeze high-profile hedge funds.
The money is REAL. The question was never whether it exists. It’s who’s spending it, and what they borrowed to do it. When the wall of cash and the bottom half finally commit to risk at the same moment the Fed turns hawkish, that’s not the start of something. That’s the part of the cycle where the careful investor gets paid to be careful.
Ten years ago this week, the world watched the United Kingdom vote to walk away from the European Union. While the political class was clutching its pearls and every talking head on television was promising Armageddon by Christmas, I told you something different.
Alan Greenspan passed away last week at the ripe old age of 100. Other than presidents, few Americans have wielded as much power in the arena of economic policy as Greenspan did during his roughly eighteen years and five months at the helm of the Federal Reserve.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Despite strong gains in 2026 so far, commodities have remained supported by constrained supply, resilient demand and long investment lead times, pointing to a cycle that seems to remain fundamentally intact.
Whether you’re a seasoned RIA owner looking to accelerate organic growth or a next-gen Advisor building your practice from the ground up, the same fundamentals apply: say clearly who you help, show up consistently where prospects look, and make sure your online presence tells the right story.
Investing is hard enough - This video explains why avoiding overpaying for stocks is one of the most important principles of successful long-term investing. Chuck Carnevale argues that while investing is never risk-free, many costly mistakes can be avoided by understanding a company's intrinsic value rather than reacting to market emotions.
A widening confidence gap in non-traded investment vehicles is testing private credit valuations, sharpening the case for manager selection and diversification beyond direct lending.
It’s hard to believe we’re nearing the halfway point of 2026 – and what an eventful start it’s been. Markets have pushed through a geopolitically driven energy shock, rising inflation pressures and accelerating disruption from the artificial intelligence boom.
AI infrastructure spending is driving record equity market raisings and has lifted expectations for long-term GDP growth in the US. But what will happen to growth when the AI capex surge has peaked? Today’s elevated long-bond yields suggest that the market expects AI-related productivity gains to support faster growth over the longer term.
What has started to stand out more recently is not the opportunity itself, but the behavior forming around it. The conversation has shifted. It is no longer centered on understanding what is being built or how it will be monetized over time.
The top 10 active ETFs YTD by fund flows show some intriguing trends and successful names that may pique the interest.
Six of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through June 29, 2026.
Join ProShares Global Investment Strategist Simeon Hyman and team for a discussion on how consistent share repurchases may reflect important characteristics of a company.
Markets will continue to shift. Headlines will change. Volatility will come and go. What endures is the value of having a thoughtful, well-constructed plan. Planning creates structure during uncertain periods and helps clients stay focused on long-term goals instead of short-term noise.
Jesse Livermore’s prolific trading stories about the fortunes he made and lost are well documented in two books. While his career was marked by the incredible volatility of his wealth, and some consider him a failure as he died broke, his market knowledge is invaluable. Accordingly, we share his 21 market rules.
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for June. The general business activity index fell 0.4 points to 0.0, indicating slower growth of manufacturing activity and stable business conditions perceptions.
The way the SPIVA U.S. Scorecard evaluates performance is not well aligned with the experience of investors. Adjusting for this reveals a more balanced view of active fund performance. While active and passive U.S. equity funds perform similarly, active bond funds tend to outperform.
Wall Street bankers are on a high after record-setting offerings from SpaceX and Google parent Alphabet Inc., lifting expectations for deal activity in the rest of 2026. More deals are on the way, including a steady stream of initial public offerings in the coming weeks, and a potential mega-deal for Anthropic PBC as soon as October.
European firms in critical sectors like nuclear energy and quantum computing are flocking to the US, despite efforts by European authorities and bourses to make the region’s markets more appealing and accessible.
Microsoft Corp. shares are heading for their worst month in years as investors continue to fret about how the software giant will fare in a world marked by artificial intelligence.
Social Security is now just six years away from insolvency, according to the latest annual assessment. Many in Congress might like to keep on ignoring the problem, as they have for years, but this won’t be an option much longer. Senators elected in November will see the system’s trust fund empty during their terms.
The Federal Reserve’s new chairman, Kevin Warsh, plans to convene no fewer than five task forces to review the central bank’s methods and operations. They will ask how the Fed can improve its communications, balance-sheet policy, use of data, understanding of “productivity and jobs in an era of transformation,” and delivery of price stability.
Friedman was reasoning from the equation of exchange, MV = PQ. Money times velocity equals prices times real output. It’s an identity, not a theory. Where it gets interesting is when you ask which variable does the work.
Transformative new technologies and geopolitical tensions have become powerful disruptive forces, redefining business models, global supply chains and the economy. These seismic shifts are upending competitive dynamics across industries and drawing trillions of dollars in capital flows that we believe are reshaping the sources of long-term equity returns.
The dominant theme this week was a tug of war between improving macroeconomic conditions and weakness in parts of the technology sector.
From our experience participating in Fed meetings, we know that the dot plot has never been universally embraced within the institution. The concern was not that it lacked informational value, but rather that markets interpreted it as a forecast, which was never its intended purpose. Forward guidance is meant to shape expectations and influence behavior, not to serve as a firm prediction of future policy decisions.
Markets have been hyper-focused on AI, crypto and buffer ETFs, but REIT ETFs have quietly staged an impressive comeback. The REIT terrain has shifted rapidly over recent years, and forward-looking investors and advisors have taken notice.
As expectations have shifted toward slower growth, higher inflation, and higher rates, investors have rotated back to sectors like large-cap technology and semiconductors, capable of delivering durable earnings in a tougher macro environment.
Circumstances since 2020 have repeatedly demonstrated how adaptable the economy is in the face of new challenges. We see no reason for that resilience to fade in the balance of the year.
During the past month, the ETF market has seen a wave of excitement surrounding a concentrated group of companies. While investors still want exposure to the tech giants that have dominated the past few years, the successful launch of SpaceX in early June created widespread anticipation for planned IPOs like Anthropic and OpenAI.
Last week’s data reaffirmed that inflation pressures remain the defining narrative across the economic landscape.
I’m hopeful new chair Kevin Warsh will help change the Fed’s inflation-tolerating institutional culture. Early signs look positive. Today we’ll talk about how insidious inflation is and why those who think a little inflation is fine should have their heads examined. It is not fine… for anyone.
The AI boom goes from strength to strength. Big technology companies are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into chips, data centers and power-hungry infrastructure. One estimate puts annual AI infrastructure investment above $650 billion in 2025 and potentially over $800 billion in 2026..
Model portfolios have helped many advisors solve for scale. The next challenge is more nuanced: how do advisors keep that scale while delivering more personalization, tax awareness and differentiated value to clients?
Before your firm starts using AI across operations, client service, reporting, or advisor workflows, there’s one basic question leadership needs to answer: what kind of AI are we talking about?
Investors now have more optionality when looking for Nasdaq 100 exposure. State Street Investment Management (SSIM) just launched the State Street SPDR Portfolio Nasdaq 100 ETF (QNDX). It will invariably go heads up with the Qs, namely the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) and the Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM).
The yield on the 10-year note finished June 26, 2026 at 4.38% while the 2-year note ended at 4.07%.
This roller-coaster week for tech stocks from Seoul to New York fueled by extreme investor positioning and worries over chip demand is sending a strong signal: the case for the artificial-intelligence trade is still strong, but the days of everything going up in a straight line appear to be over.
The dollar is wrapping up one of its best months in a year as a raft of Wall Street banks see a turnaround of fortunes for the US currency.
SpaceX’s blockbuster bond sale is weakening so quickly in the secondary market that traders say they can’t recall another recent deal that widened this sharply.
Bitcoin’s collapse is forcing crypto veterans to confront the question every bear market eventually asks: when does mass panic create a buying opportunity? The answer, according to many of the investors and analysts who have lived through previous boom-and-bust cycles, is: not yet.
Private credit is having a moment in the headlines. Higher interest rates and a pullback in certain types of bank lending have pushed more financing activity into private markets. Investors may be left with a simple question: What exactly is private credit?
In a world of high starting yields and rupturing economic alliances, investors who actively diversify across regions, sectors, and currencies can be better positioned to pursue durable returns.
As the market continues to broaden in 2026, a balanced approach matters more than ever.
AI is both a foundational technology and the ultimate replacement product, which we believe explains why it has attracted unprecedented levels of capital and why the investment opportunities are so compelling.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is already reshaping policy communication by reducing forward guidance, questioning the dot plot’s future and emphasizing real-time data, potentially increasing Treasury market volatility.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. named Troy Rohrbaugh and Doug Petno co-presidents as the abrupt departure of consumer banking chief Marianne Lake marked another twist in the race to succeed Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon.
Kevin Warsh, the newly appointed Federal Reserve chair, led his first committee meeting in June. The decision to leave short-term interest rates unchanged didn’t surprise anybody, but there was plenty for markets to chew on. Warsh seems likely to make structural changes that may not impact near-term monetary policy but could matter much more to the US economy over the long run.
Halfway through 2026, this market perspective is harder to write with confidence than most. That’s not a phrase I use lightly. Over four decades of markets, there have been plenty of uncertain moments, but the number of significant, unresolved issues I’m watching right now is unusually high.
The ETF landscape includes plenty of exciting ETFs. Not all, however, can claim to combine high current income and outperformance. The ProShares Russell 2000 High Income ETF (ITWO) has done just that so far this year with its innovative approach to covered calls.
VettaFi currently has index products tied to ETFs issued by American Century, Victory Capital, and ALPS ETFs, but the addition of RAFI products issued by Invesco and PIMCO that are fundamentally weighted is really exciting, according to Rosenbluth.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, climbed 3.4% year-over-year in May. This marks the highest level since October 2023 and marks a pickup from April's 3.3% reading. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.3%.
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of the latest data, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 3.4% and core CPI at 2.9%.
What if the debt crisis investors have feared is not still ahead, but already here, unfolding in plain sight? In his June insight, Richard Bernstein, Global Head of Macro & Customized Investing, makes the case that the market may already be penalizing U.S. fiscal excess, not through a dramatic collapse, but through a slow burn with real consequences for investors and the broader economy.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.70% in May and was up 3.62% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.25% month-over-month and down 0.43% year-over-year.
Market professionals already on edge about the staying power of soaring artificial intelligence stocks are starting to grapple with another risk: public anger toward the technology.
With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up up 0.68% month-over-month. But when adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was up 0.23%.
President Donald Trump signed executive orders Monday aimed at accelerating quantum research, laying the groundwork for federal agencies to adopt the technology and strengthen US defenses against cyberattacks.
Alphabet Inc.’s addition to the Dow Jones Industrial Average marks another step in the benchmark’s effort to catch up with a market increasingly defined by Big Tech.
With back-to-back announcements this week, SK Hynix Inc. and Micron Technology Inc. have solidified the memory chip market as the hottest part of the AI industry.
New orders for manufactured durable goods sank 4.5% in May to $332.05B, slightly less than the projected 5.0% monthly decline.
In the week ending June 20th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 215,000. This represents a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's figure and was lower than the forecast of 225,000.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is changing how the central bank conducts monetary policy. A fresh look is appropriate, especially given the Fed’s failure to achieve its 2% inflation objective for more than five years. But this needs to be done with greater care than Warsh has shown to date.
According to Gleason, the freezing of Russian assets following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine accelerated the global push toward de-dollarization. Nations around the world took notice that access to the dollar-based financial system could be restricted, increasing the appeal of gold as a reserve asset that cannot be frozen or sanctioned by foreign governments.
Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Reserve meeting as chair mattered less for the rate decision than for what he revealed about how the Fed intends to operate. Warsh signaled a shift toward less guidance and more flexibility.
On May 5, 2026, researchers from Cleveland Clinic, RIKEN, and IBM successfully simulated a 12,635-atom protein complex using quantum-centric supercomputing, a problem relevant to drug discovery that classical computing could not match at comparable speed and accuracy.
Municipal bonds often see a seasonal lift during the summer months. This pattern, known as summer technicals, stems from a straightforward supply and demand imbalance that tends to favor bond prices. Over the past ten years, the summer months (May through July) have generally been positive months for the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index, with monthly returns averaging +0.83%, +0.43%, and +0.82%, respectively.
Total-portfolio thinking is gaining momentum across institutional investing, with investors looking to adopt portfolio-wide approaches that integrate risk, liquidity, and capital allocation decisions. As institutions manage broader opportunity sets and place greater emphasis on portfolio integration, total-portfolio thinking is increasingly influencing how they set objectives, allocate capital, implement strategies, and govern portfolios.
The international ETF landscape has become quite popular with investors over the last year. Investors flocked to ex-U.S. equity opportunities over the last 12 months, driven by high domestic valuations and persistent concentration risk. By contrast, emerging and international markets have both offered lower costs and healthy diversification.
In a digital-first environment, reputation is no longer a byproduct of success; it is an asset class in its own right. For ultra-high-net-worth families, reputation capital can influence investment opportunities, business partnerships, philanthropic impact, and multigenerational legacy. It can also be exposed, amplified, or undermined in real time.
In broad terms, there appears to be little headline risk facing advisors and income investors mulling municipal bonds. All 50 states carry investment-grade credit ratings, confirming that their credit quality remains solid.
It’s easy to understand why investors are skeptical about value stocks. After nearly two decades of chronic weakness, value’s strong rebound since early 2025 hasn’t offered enough proof that the turnaround has staying power.
That gap — between believing you are excellent and being able to prove it — is the central problem this article addresses. And solving it is precisely what “The 80/20 Manifesto” was written to do.
New home sales fell more than expected in May while the median price rose for a second straight month.
Global Markets
Automating America: The New Wave of Robotics Demand
Join Morten Paulsen, Head of Industrials Research at CLSA and member of the ROBO Global Strategic Advisory Board, for an in-depth look at his latest research report on the accelerating automation of American manufacturing.
Rare earths: Critical elements at a critical moment
Join Sprott Asset Management for an educational webcast exploring rare earths, their growing strategic importance, and the global effort to build secure supply chains outside China.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: June 2026
Valid until the market close on July 31, 2026
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Gasoline Prices Fall to 3.5-Month Low
Gasoline prices fell for a seventh straight week, reaching their lowest level in 3.5 months. As of June 29th, weekly prices were down 8 cents for regular and down 9 cents for premium gasoline.
Two Measures of Consumer Attitudes: June 2026
What are consumers thinking about the economy? Their collective mood offers crucial clues for businesses, investors, and policymakers alike. In June, the two leading benchmarks, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), offered similar views with both showing slight improvement despite ongoing inflation concerns.
Estate Plans Designed Before OBBBA May Now Be Costing Your Clients Money
The OBBBA created something the industry rarely gets: a defined planning window without a hard deadline attached. Exemptions are historically high, the law has no sunset, and there's a real body of existing work that needs revisiting. The advisors who treat this as an opportunity, rather than waiting for a client to ask, will drive much stronger outcomes compared to those who don’t.
Financial Matchmaking: Why Potential Partners’ Money Beliefs Matter
Even people whose money beliefs and behaviors align more closely are not necessarily an ideal match. Partners whose predominant money scripts fall into the money vigilance category may both track expenses, openly discuss finances, and hold similar values around saving.
Chicago PMI Cools in June but Maintains Expansion
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index cooled 6.0 points in June to 56.7, signaling an expansion in regional business activity for a second straight month. The latest reading was higher than the projected 55.7.
FHFA House Price Index Retreats from Record High
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) retreated in April, falling 0.1% from the previous month's record high to 441.4.
Consumer Confidence Inched Down in June
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® inched up in June, rising 0.6 points to 91.2. Despite the improvement, the index came in below the forecast of 94.4.
AI Might Be a Great Investment, But Not for the Government
These are dark days for free-market economists when one of the few areas of bipartisan consensus is for a terrible idea: Both Vice President JD Vance and Senator Bernie Sanders want the federal government to take an explicit stake in AI firms.
How 2026’s Philanthropic ETFs ASD & DUTY Invest
The ETF ecosystem is always changing and growing. Thanks to the ETF’s flexibility, transparency, and tradability, it can help investors achieve plenty of bespoke goals. That even includes investing with an eye towards philanthropic causes as with philanthropic ETFs ASD and DUTY.
Oil Set for Quarterly Drop as Morgan Stanley Warns of Glut Risks
Oil headed for the biggest quarterly decline since the pandemic as flows through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated following progress on a peace deal, with Morgan Stanley warning of a potential glut ahead.
HSBC Says ‘Explosive’ Dollar Rally Is Among Biggest Pain Trades
A sharp rise in the dollar may emerge as one of the biggest “pain trades” in the second half of the year, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.
An Epic David vs. Goliath Stock Battle Is Underway
Meme mania swept through Wall Street in 2021. Retail investors gathered on social media and coordinated trading strategies to short squeeze high-profile hedge funds.
Record Retail Inflows: Where Is All The Money Coming From?
The money is REAL. The question was never whether it exists. It’s who’s spending it, and what they borrowed to do it. When the wall of cash and the bottom half finally commit to risk at the same moment the Fed turns hawkish, that’s not the start of something. That’s the part of the cycle where the careful investor gets paid to be careful.
Four Lessons Brexit Taught Me About Gold and Protecting Your Wealth
Ten years ago this week, the world watched the United Kingdom vote to walk away from the European Union. While the political class was clutching its pearls and every talking head on television was promising Armageddon by Christmas, I told you something different.
Alan Greenspan, RIP
Alan Greenspan passed away last week at the ripe old age of 100. Other than presidents, few Americans have wielded as much power in the arena of economic policy as Greenspan did during his roughly eighteen years and five months at the helm of the Federal Reserve.
Rotation Nation. Large-Cap Growth on Sale.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Commodities Midyear Outlook 2026: Is There Still Room to Run?
Despite strong gains in 2026 so far, commodities have remained supported by constrained supply, resilient demand and long investment lead times, pointing to a cycle that seems to remain fundamentally intact.
What Makes an Advisory Firm Easy to Refer? (And Why Many Fail This Test)
Whether you’re a seasoned RIA owner looking to accelerate organic growth or a next-gen Advisor building your practice from the ground up, the same fundamentals apply: say clearly who you help, show up consistently where prospects look, and make sure your online presence tells the right story.
Investing is Hard Enough: Here's How to Avoid Obvious Mistakes
Investing is hard enough - This video explains why avoiding overpaying for stocks is one of the most important principles of successful long-term investing. Chuck Carnevale argues that while investing is never risk-free, many costly mistakes can be avoided by understanding a company's intrinsic value rather than reacting to market emotions.
The Credit Market Lens: What BDC Redemptions and NAV Pressures Mean for Investors
A widening confidence gap in non-traded investment vehicles is testing private credit valuations, sharpening the case for manager selection and diversification beyond direct lending.
Markets: What to Watch Midway Through 2026
It’s hard to believe we’re nearing the halfway point of 2026 – and what an eventful start it’s been. Markets have pushed through a geopolitically driven energy shock, rising inflation pressures and accelerating disruption from the artificial intelligence boom.
Can AI Deliver Lasting Growth?
AI infrastructure spending is driving record equity market raisings and has lifted expectations for long-term GDP growth in the US. But what will happen to growth when the AI capex surge has peaked? Today’s elevated long-bond yields suggest that the market expects AI-related productivity gains to support faster growth over the longer term.
FOMO in Market Cycles
What has started to stand out more recently is not the opportunity itself, but the behavior forming around it. The conversation has shifted. It is no longer centered on understanding what is being built or how it will be monetized over time.
What the Top 10 Active ETFs YTD Can Tell Us
The top 10 active ETFs YTD by fund flows show some intriguing trends and successful names that may pique the interest.
World Markets Watchlist: June 29, 2026
Six of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through June 29, 2026.
The S&P 500 Buyback Aristocrats: Quality Through Consistency
Join ProShares Global Investment Strategist Simeon Hyman and team for a discussion on how consistent share repurchases may reflect important characteristics of a company.
Why Planning, Not Prediction, Wins in Volatile Markets
Markets will continue to shift. Headlines will change. Volatility will come and go. What endures is the value of having a thoughtful, well-constructed plan. Planning creates structure during uncertain periods and helps clients stay focused on long-term goals instead of short-term noise.
Old Lessons From Jesse Livermore for Today’s Market
Jesse Livermore’s prolific trading stories about the fortunes he made and lost are well documented in two books. While his career was marked by the incredible volatility of his wealth, and some consider him a failure as he died broke, his market knowledge is invaluable. Accordingly, we share his 21 market rules.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Stable Business Conditions in June
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for June. The general business activity index fell 0.4 points to 0.0, indicating slower growth of manufacturing activity and stable business conditions perceptions.
The SPIVA Scorecard Does Not Capture the Actual Experience of Investors
The way the SPIVA U.S. Scorecard evaluates performance is not well aligned with the experience of investors. Adjusting for this reveals a more balanced view of active fund performance. While active and passive U.S. equity funds perform similarly, active bond funds tend to outperform.
SpaceX Pushes US Share Sales to Record $251 Billion at Midyear
Wall Street bankers are on a high after record-setting offerings from SpaceX and Google parent Alphabet Inc., lifting expectations for deal activity in the rest of 2026. More deals are on the way, including a steady stream of initial public offerings in the coming weeks, and a potential mega-deal for Anthropic PBC as soon as October.
Europe’s Boldest Tech Startups Are Reaching for US SPACs Again
European firms in critical sectors like nuclear energy and quantum computing are flocking to the US, despite efforts by European authorities and bourses to make the region’s markets more appealing and accessible.
Microsoft’s $530 Billion Rout Sets Up Its Worst Month Since 2008
Microsoft Corp. shares are heading for their worst month in years as investors continue to fret about how the software giant will fare in a world marked by artificial intelligence.
Fixing Social Security Is Urgent — and Difficult
Social Security is now just six years away from insolvency, according to the latest annual assessment. Many in Congress might like to keep on ignoring the problem, as they have for years, but this won’t be an option much longer. Senators elected in November will see the system’s trust fund empty during their terms.
The Fed Needs to Follow the Rules. But Which One?
The Federal Reserve’s new chairman, Kevin Warsh, plans to convene no fewer than five task forces to review the central bank’s methods and operations. They will ask how the Fed can improve its communications, balance-sheet policy, use of data, understanding of “productivity and jobs in an era of transformation,” and delivery of price stability.
Friedman Was Right, Just Mostly Misquoted.
Friedman was reasoning from the equation of exchange, MV = PQ. Money times velocity equals prices times real output. It’s an identity, not a theory. Where it gets interesting is when you ask which variable does the work.
Thematic Equity Investing in a World of Disruption and Realignment
Transformative new technologies and geopolitical tensions have become powerful disruptive forces, redefining business models, global supply chains and the economy. These seismic shifts are upending competitive dynamics across industries and drawing trillions of dollars in capital flows that we believe are reshaping the sources of long-term equity returns.
The Strait is Open. What's Next for Markets?
The dominant theme this week was a tug of war between improving macroeconomic conditions and weakness in parts of the technology sector.
Fed Conundrum: Are Rates Restrictive?
From our experience participating in Fed meetings, we know that the dot plot has never been universally embraced within the institution. The concern was not that it lacked informational value, but rather that markets interpreted it as a forecast, which was never its intended purpose. Forward guidance is meant to shape expectations and influence behavior, not to serve as a firm prediction of future policy decisions.
REIT ETFs: Real Estate’s Quiet Revival
Markets have been hyper-focused on AI, crypto and buffer ETFs, but REIT ETFs have quietly staged an impressive comeback. The REIT terrain has shifted rapidly over recent years, and forward-looking investors and advisors have taken notice.
Tech Rally Grounded in Fundamentals
As expectations have shifted toward slower growth, higher inflation, and higher rates, investors have rotated back to sectors like large-cap technology and semiconductors, capable of delivering durable earnings in a tougher macro environment.
Mid-Year Themes
Circumstances since 2020 have repeatedly demonstrated how adaptable the economy is in the face of new challenges. We see no reason for that resilience to fade in the balance of the year.
From Tech Giants to MANGOS: A New ETF Trend Emerges
During the past month, the ETF market has seen a wave of excitement surrounding a concentrated group of companies. While investors still want exposure to the tech giants that have dominated the past few years, the successful launch of SpaceX in early June created widespread anticipation for planned IPOs like Anthropic and OpenAI.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Inflation Remains the Central Focus
Last week’s data reaffirmed that inflation pressures remain the defining narrative across the economic landscape.
Inflation Sinks Deeper
I’m hopeful new chair Kevin Warsh will help change the Fed’s inflation-tolerating institutional culture. Early signs look positive. Today we’ll talk about how insidious inflation is and why those who think a little inflation is fine should have their heads examined. It is not fine… for anyone.
Is AI Inflationary or Deflationary?
The AI boom goes from strength to strength. Big technology companies are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into chips, data centers and power-hungry infrastructure. One estimate puts annual AI infrastructure investment above $650 billion in 2025 and potentially over $800 billion in 2026..
Model Portfolios Are Mainstream. Now Advisors Want Personalization.
Model portfolios have helped many advisors solve for scale. The next challenge is more nuanced: how do advisors keep that scale while delivering more personalization, tax awareness and differentiated value to clients?
Open vs. Closed AI: What Advisory Firm Leaders Need to Know
Before your firm starts using AI across operations, client service, reporting, or advisor workflows, there’s one basic question leadership needs to answer: what kind of AI are we talking about?
State Street Goes Heads Up With Qs, Launches Nasdaq 100 ETF
Investors now have more optionality when looking for Nasdaq 100 exposure. State Street Investment Management (SSIM) just launched the State Street SPDR Portfolio Nasdaq 100 ETF (QNDX). It will invariably go heads up with the Qs, namely the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) and the Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM).
Treasury Yields Snapshot: June 26, 2026
The yield on the 10-year note finished June 26, 2026 at 4.38% while the 2-year note ended at 4.07%.
AI Trade’s Bruising Week Forces Investors to Be More Selective
This roller-coaster week for tech stocks from Seoul to New York fueled by extreme investor positioning and worries over chip demand is sending a strong signal: the case for the artificial-intelligence trade is still strong, but the days of everything going up in a straight line appear to be over.
Wall Street Embraces Dollar as Warsh’s Fed Activates Bulls
The dollar is wrapping up one of its best months in a year as a raft of Wall Street banks see a turnaround of fortunes for the US currency.
Bond Traders Stunned as Losses on SpaceX’s New Debt Keep Growing
SpaceX’s blockbuster bond sale is weakening so quickly in the secondary market that traders say they can’t recall another recent deal that widened this sharply.
Bitcoin Bottom Hunters Fear Fresh Pain After $1.3 Trillion Rout
Bitcoin’s collapse is forcing crypto veterans to confront the question every bear market eventually asks: when does mass panic create a buying opportunity? The answer, according to many of the investors and analysts who have lived through previous boom-and-bust cycles, is: not yet.
Private Credit, Explained
Private credit is having a moment in the headlines. Higher interest rates and a pullback in certain types of bank lending have pushed more financing activity into private markets. Investors may be left with a simple question: What exactly is private credit?
Global Bond Diversification: Higher Yields and New Opportunities for Alpha
In a world of high starting yields and rupturing economic alliances, investors who actively diversify across regions, sectors, and currencies can be better positioned to pursue durable returns.
Market Broadening, AI, and the Case for Diversification
As the market continues to broaden in 2026, a balanced approach matters more than ever.
AI Is a Secular Growth Unicorn
AI is both a foundational technology and the ultimate replacement product, which we believe explains why it has attracted unprecedented levels of capital and why the investment opportunities are so compelling.
A ‘Warsh’ Out at the Fed
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is already reshaping policy communication by reducing forward guidance, questioning the dot plot’s future and emphasizing real-time data, potentially increasing Treasury market volatility.
JPMorgan’s Lake Exits, Setting Up New Race to Succeed Dimon
JPMorgan Chase & Co. named Troy Rohrbaugh and Doug Petno co-presidents as the abrupt departure of consumer banking chief Marianne Lake marked another twist in the race to succeed Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon.
The Federal Reserve’s New Leader Lays Out His Agenda
Kevin Warsh, the newly appointed Federal Reserve chair, led his first committee meeting in June. The decision to leave short-term interest rates unchanged didn’t surprise anybody, but there was plenty for markets to chew on. Warsh seems likely to make structural changes that may not impact near-term monetary policy but could matter much more to the US economy over the long run.
More Moving Parts Than Usual: A Mid-2026 Market Perspective
Halfway through 2026, this market perspective is harder to write with confidence than most. That’s not a phrase I use lightly. Over four decades of markets, there have been plenty of uncertain moments, but the number of significant, unresolved issues I’m watching right now is unusually high.
How Russell 2000 High Income ETF ITWO Is Outperforming
The ETF landscape includes plenty of exciting ETFs. Not all, however, can claim to combine high current income and outperformance. The ProShares Russell 2000 High Income ETF (ITWO) has done just that so far this year with its innovative approach to covered calls.
Rosenbluth Discusses Thematics & RAFI Acquisition on Schwab Network
VettaFi currently has index products tied to ETFs issued by American Century, Victory Capital, and ALPS ETFs, but the addition of RAFI products issued by Invesco and PIMCO that are fundamentally weighted is really exciting, according to Rosenbluth.
Core PCE Inflation at 3.4% in May, Highest Level Since 2023
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, climbed 3.4% year-over-year in May. This marks the highest level since October 2023 and marks a pickup from April's 3.3% reading. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.3%.
Two Measures of Inflation: May 2026
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of the latest data, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 3.4% and core CPI at 2.9%.
Could the U.S. Be the Frog in the Pot?
What if the debt crisis investors have feared is not still ahead, but already here, unfolding in plain sight? In his June insight, Richard Bernstein, Global Head of Macro & Customized Investing, makes the case that the market may already be penalizing U.S. fiscal excess, not through a dramatic collapse, but through a slow burn with real consequences for investors and the broader economy.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.70% in May and was up 3.62% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.25% month-over-month and down 0.43% year-over-year.
AI Backlash Is the Risk Wall Street Fears Can Stop Tech Stocks
Market professionals already on edge about the staying power of soaring artificial intelligence stocks are starting to grapple with another risk: public anger toward the technology.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.2% in May
With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up up 0.68% month-over-month. But when adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was up 0.23%.
Trump Orders US to Speed Quantum Adoption, Boost Cyber Defenses
President Donald Trump signed executive orders Monday aimed at accelerating quantum research, laying the groundwork for federal agencies to adopt the technology and strengthen US defenses against cyberattacks.
Alphabet’s Dow Debut Shows Index Headache in Tech-Driven Economy
Alphabet Inc.’s addition to the Dow Jones Industrial Average marks another step in the benchmark’s effort to catch up with a market increasingly defined by Big Tech.
SK Hynix, Micron Solidify the Memory Chip as Runaway Star of AI
With back-to-back announcements this week, SK Hynix Inc. and Micron Technology Inc. have solidified the memory chip market as the hottest part of the AI industry.
Durable Goods Orders Sink 4.5% in May, Less Than Expected
New orders for manufactured durable goods sank 4.5% in May to $332.05B, slightly less than the projected 5.0% monthly decline.
Initial Unemployment Claims Down 12K, Lower Than Expected
In the week ending June 20th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 215,000. This represents a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's figure and was lower than the forecast of 225,000.
Warsh’s Pivot Risks Confusing the Market and the Fed
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is changing how the central bank conducts monetary policy. A fresh look is appropriate, especially given the Fed’s failure to achieve its 2% inflation objective for more than five years. But this needs to be done with greater care than Warsh has shown to date.
Gold, Fort Knox, and the Dollar’s Future
According to Gleason, the freezing of Russian assets following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine accelerated the global push toward de-dollarization. Nations around the world took notice that access to the dollar-based financial system could be restricted, increasing the appeal of gold as a reserve asset that cannot be frozen or sanctioned by foreign governments.
Will Greater Monetary Policy Uncertainty Lead to Tighter Financial Conditions?
Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Reserve meeting as chair mattered less for the rate decision than for what he revealed about how the Fed intends to operate. Warsh signaled a shift toward less guidance and more flexibility.
Why the Tech Giants Are Always in the Room
On May 5, 2026, researchers from Cleveland Clinic, RIKEN, and IBM successfully simulated a 12,635-atom protein complex using quantum-centric supercomputing, a problem relevant to drug discovery that classical computing could not match at comparable speed and accuracy.
Summer Seasonal Technicals in Municipal Bonds: A Reliable Tailwind?
Municipal bonds often see a seasonal lift during the summer months. This pattern, known as summer technicals, stems from a straightforward supply and demand imbalance that tends to favor bond prices. Over the past ten years, the summer months (May through July) have generally been positive months for the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index, with monthly returns averaging +0.83%, +0.43%, and +0.82%, respectively.
The Rise of Total Portfolio Investing
Total-portfolio thinking is gaining momentum across institutional investing, with investors looking to adopt portfolio-wide approaches that integrate risk, liquidity, and capital allocation decisions. As institutions manage broader opportunity sets and place greater emphasis on portfolio integration, total-portfolio thinking is increasingly influencing how they set objectives, allocate capital, implement strategies, and govern portfolios.
This Elevated International ETF Looks Compelling Right Now
The international ETF landscape has become quite popular with investors over the last year. Investors flocked to ex-U.S. equity opportunities over the last 12 months, driven by high domestic valuations and persistent concentration risk. By contrast, emerging and international markets have both offered lower costs and healthy diversification.
Managing Family Reputation Capital in a Digital-First World
In a digital-first environment, reputation is no longer a byproduct of success; it is an asset class in its own right. For ultra-high-net-worth families, reputation capital can influence investment opportunities, business partnerships, philanthropic impact, and multigenerational legacy. It can also be exposed, amplified, or undermined in real time.
Can Active Management Make a Difference With Municipal Bonds?
In broad terms, there appears to be little headline risk facing advisors and income investors mulling municipal bonds. All 50 states carry investment-grade credit ratings, confirming that their credit quality remains solid.
Value Stocks: The Cash-Flow Case for a Continuing Comeback
It’s easy to understand why investors are skeptical about value stocks. After nearly two decades of chronic weakness, value’s strong rebound since early 2025 hasn’t offered enough proof that the turnaround has staying power.
Can You Prove You're Better? Understanding ‘The 80/20 Manifesto’
That gap — between believing you are excellent and being able to prove it — is the central problem this article addresses. And solving it is precisely what “The 80/20 Manifesto” was written to do.
New Home Sales Drop 7% in May
New home sales fell more than expected in May while the median price rose for a second straight month.