US economic data continue to send mixed signals, keeping uncertainty high on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later this year.
Alex Veroude, Global Head of Fixed Income, believes fixed income investors can prepare for an uncertain journey by recognising trends and diversifying across different assets.
Global markets may be more rattled than ever, but advisors can count on closed-end funds to offer yield, portfolio diversity, and more.
Unlike most other US public retirement plans of its size, the Tampa Fire & Police Pension Fund doesn’t invest in hedge funds, private equity or private credit.
For US traders, developing-country stocks have been a surprising source of returns as Donald Trump’s trade war roiled the S&P 500 Index.
The Senate is continuing to work behind the scenes to develop its version of the "One Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill that passed the House by a singe vote in May.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs, aka Mr. Valuation presents a detailed analysis of Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), a midstream master limited partnership (MLP) known for its high income potential, offering investors a stable and growing dividend yield.
Summer re-runs are popular on TV, but a repeat of last August's "yen-carry" market upheaval isn't likely on the schedule. A shift in positioning by investors is one reason.
In the history of technological progress, there's often a critical misreading. We think the leap is in the product—the engine, the chip, the app.
The US 2025 tax bill enhances certain deductions and includes provisions for business growth and development. Our Bill Cass shares the highlights of what is being debated on Capitol Hill and the impact on business owners.
With tariff news providing constant equity market fluctuations, the case for bonds becomes more compelling. The added uncertainty also punctuates the need for an active management strategy, which one particular Vanguard ETF offers.
Financial markets have been experiencing some of their wildest trading days in history this year. Stock and bond prices have been moving in unison—an alarming scenario for investors and their advisors. With increased volatility, long-term investors might benefit from additional exposure to alternative strategies within their portfolio allocations.
If I told someone with even a little investing experience that I own an asset that pays like stocks but is stable like bonds, they would probably think I was a huckster or a fool. Yet many of the most sophisticated investors claim to own such a thing.
Despite inflation worries, fiscal deficit concerns, and continued geopolitical conflict, equity markets posted strong returns in May on the back of easing tariff tensions, lower probability of recession, and better than expected US Q1 earnings.
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, boosted its annual revenue target for 2030 and set its first-ever firmwide target for private-markets fundraising at $400 billion by then.
After weeks of hand-wringing around demand for long-term US debt, all eyes are on Thursday’s 30-year Treasury auction for a fresh read on whether spiraling deficits are causing investors to shun the maturity.
While crypto’s roots are libertarian and anti-state, stablecoins could serve to entrench the existing tech and monetary order dominated by the US, as 95% of them are dollar-denominated.
The first half of 2025 has been driven by headlines that have caused volatility in both the stock and bond markets. While tariff negotiations have commanded the most attention, we are now pivoting to the federal budget deficit, which feels like a perpetual headline over the last 15 years.
Today, Vanguard released its newest bond fund, the Vanguard Multi-Sector Income Bond ETF (VGMS).
Integrating volatile and illiquid assets into the ETF structure is something to be avoided, Doubleline CEO and CIO Gundlach said.
A new culture of reform at Japanese companies offers exciting potential for equity investors.
In the current land of uncertainty the markets and investors find themselves in, the monthly Employment Situation report is ‘must-see TV’ and will remain that way for the foreseeable future.
Supporters of tax cuts argue that they eventually "pay for themselves" and lower deficits through economic growth and increased revenue, even without significant spending cuts.
What's the debt ceiling? Learn how the debt ceiling works and how a default on federal debt could impact the U.S. stock market and economy.
With the world order in flux, investors can look to fortify portfolios by diversifying across global markets and capitalizing on attractive, high quality yields.
This series has been updated to include the May release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,538, down 5.8% from over 50 years ago.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
US Treasuries surged as easing US consumer inflation prompted traders to increase their wagers on more than one Federal Reserve interest-rate cut this year.
While the immediate path for tariffs may drift lower, the U.S. legislative branch is hammering out a tax and spending bill that seems to favor tax cuts over lower spending, reviving worries over the U.S. budget deficit and a growing debt burden that cannot be ignored.
Advisors looking to add or enhance existing gold exposures in their portfolio have a range of strategies to consider within the ETF vehicle.
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
If we lived in a world where mobile signals were visible, the sky would shimmer like a storm—layers of frequencies rolling over rooftops, crossing oceans and saturating valleys.
The U.S. economy and stock market face a confluence of challenges in the second half of the year, keeping the bar relatively (but not restrictively) high for outperformance.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Robotics was one of the earliest examples of a disruptive technology. It enjoyed some time in the investment community limelight. But it was rapidly usurped by other innovative technologies, including AI.
The US housing market remains in a state of inertia. Despite the arrival of the spring selling season, both new and existing home sales continue to underwhelm.
Diversification of portfolios using international equities can reduce volatility and enhance risk-adjusted returns, especially given recent geopolitical shifts that decrease correlations between U.S. and international markets. Despite some investor skepticism, and as we discuss below, the benefits of international diversification can be significant and should be considered in investment strategies.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, aka Mr. Valuation will do a comprehensive analysis of Autoliv Inc (ALV), the world’s largest automotive safety supplier.
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of May, the labor force participation rate is at 62.4%, down from 62.6% the previous month.
A college degree may be a milestone that represents one possible career path. But it’s not your only route toward a future that is both financially sound and deeply fulfilling.
Stablecoins are a special flavor of cryptocurrency. Unlike Bitcoin or countless wildly traded memecoins, whose values rise and fall based on market moods, the most popular versions of these digital tokens are supposed to always be worth $1 each.
Analysts at firms including Barclays Plc and JPMorgan Chase & Co. see further upside for US stocks, in part because they expect institutional investors to abandon their cautious stance and ramp up exposure to equities.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The recovery was in large part due to owners expecting better business conditions and higher sales volumes.
My unifying theory of finance is that everything goes seriously wrong when people start seeing something — a bond, a mortgage-backed security, a crypto exchange — as risk-free when it isn’t.
The Fear Trade is what most Western investors are familiar with. It’s the flight to safety during times of uncertainty, driven by concerns over inflation, interest rates, geopolitical risk and more.
I spent the last two weeks of May catching up with partners and clients in Malaysia, Singapore, China, and Hong Kong. Following are some reflections on those conversations.
Here’s the blunt truth: Many great investment strategies fail because of poor implementation. Robust capabilities in trading, transition management, overlays and currencies are critical to executing a strategy.
Investors looking to move big blocks of corporate bonds have long relied on exchange-traded funds listed on stock exchanges to jump in and out of positions. But now, they’re increasingly trading directly in the debt market.
The push to put private assets in the hands of individual investors is breathing new life into a relatively quiet corner of the asset management industry: interval funds.
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
For the first time in five months, gold-backed ETFs globally reported modest outflows in May as investors took profits.
After falling 0.7% in April, the S&P 500 gained 6.3% last month, marking the index’s best May return since 1990 and its best monthly return since November 2023 (see the chart).
Back during the Financial Panic of 2008, clickbait media kept screaming “Hyperinflation.” We consistently pushed back against this theme, and argued inflation would not accelerate.
Last week’s employment report was an important stabilizer for the markets. After concerning revisions and weak ADP numbers raised recession alarms, Friday’s payrolls print calmed fears on labor market deterioration.
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through June 9, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 23.23%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 17.73% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.93%.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 139,000.
May's employment report showed that 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours)5
Investors nearing or in retirement who are currently defaulted into TDFs need to stop defaulting and move to safety now.
As small business clients look toward ambitious growth, advisors have the chance to offer something foundational: a term life insurance strategy that turns ambitions into a legacy.
Stablecoins and the concept of digital money represent a significant shift from the current system. While there are many risks with digital money, there is also promise.
US Treasuries were trimming overnight gains, with modest weakness in longer dated debt as investors awaited a Thursday auction of 30-year securities that will offer a fresh test of demand for the beleaguered securities.
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in May.
Yale University’s $41 billion endowment, led for decades by the late investing giant David Swensen, has been the envy – and the blueprint — for many US universities eager to secure their financial future.
Increasing investor preference for actively managed strategies continues in this year’s tumultuous environment. With active ETFs taking increasing market share, advisors and investors have ever-expanding choices when looking to augment existing passive exposures.
Today we’ll continue our SIC highlight series featuring a relatively new face who is now indispensable, plus some new ones who were crowd favorites.
It would seem evident that most investors would understand that consumer spending drives economic growth, ultimately creating corporate earnings growth. Yet, despite this somewhat tautological statement, Wall Street appears to ignore this simple reality when forecasting forward earnings.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) lost its chance to lower interest rates further during the first half of the year, when inflation came down to close to its 2.0% target with very limited risk that its decision would have triggered higher inflation.
Systematic fixed-income investing is attracting increased attention but needs specialist skills and resources. Would your manager have what it takes?
Research trips are an integral component of our active, fundamental investment process. Our investment teams meet with different companies, attend conferences, and travel to new markets around the world, gaining insights for our clients and a deeper understanding of potential investments.
Rebounding demand from ETF investors and resilient buying from central banks and Asia retail have propelled gold prices to fresh records north of US$3,000/oz. Find out why we believe there is more room to run.
Last week, the labor market took center stage, presenting a nuanced picture of continued resilience alongside subtle signs of softening.
The bill contains several tax-code changes that could affect municipal bonds, although we don't think it reduces the appeal of munis for high-income earners.
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 6, 2025 at 4.51%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.04% and the 30-year note ended at 4.97%.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
The ETF market saw a noticeable slowdown of new products launched in May; however, innovation continued to be a driving force.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In May, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 139,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.
Treasuries fell as faster-than-expected US job and wage growth prompted traders to trim back bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
The latest employment report showed that 139,000 jobs were added in May, down from 147,000 in April but higher than the expected 126,000 addition. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, as expected.
The federal government, financial markets and most Americans are all in a state of denial about interest rates.
The White House is seriously considering the proposal, at the behest of some of the country’s largest financial firms.
Bouts of volatility may continue in the second half of 2025 as bond market investors navigate evolving tariff policy, U.S. government debt, and economic uncertainty.
Kristofer Kraus, portfolio manager and co-lead of PIMCO’s asset-based finance business, charts the nuances behind the overall resilience of U.S. consumers – and explains how these insights shape lending and investment strategies.
Abstract SMID-cap investing offers stronger performance and lower volatility than small-caps alone. By using the Russell 2500 index, investors can retain top performers longer, reduce turnover, and enhance portfolio resilience and flexibility.
Privacore Capital, an affiliate of Janus Henderson and an open-architecture solutions provider for alternative investment products tailored to the private wealth market, and Partners Capital Investment Group, a global Investment Office, today announced the launch of the Privacore PCAAM Alternative Growth Fund (“AltsGrow”).
Gold’s recent surge to $3,500 was quickly followed by a sharp correction. Each tariff update or diplomatic rumor sends markets into a frenzy—rallying stocks, selling gold, or reversing course the next day.
We remain underweight most developed market stocks as US tariff policy is still unclear but are more enthusiastic about emerging market assets.
Income
The South Is Beating Inflation — But Not Housing
US economic data continue to send mixed signals, keeping uncertainty high on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later this year.
Fixed Income Outlook: A Not-so-Random Walk
Alex Veroude, Global Head of Fixed Income, believes fixed income investors can prepare for an uncertain journey by recognising trends and diversifying across different assets.
What Closed-End Funds Could Offer Amid Uncertain Times
Global markets may be more rattled than ever, but advisors can count on closed-end funds to offer yield, portfolio diversity, and more.
The Florida Pension Fund Managers Who've Beaten the S&P 500 Over 50 Years
Unlike most other US public retirement plans of its size, the Tampa Fire & Police Pension Fund doesn’t invest in hedge funds, private equity or private credit.
Options Signal EM Firms’ Outperformance Could Fade: Taking Stock
For US traders, developing-country stocks have been a surprising source of returns as Donald Trump’s trade war roiled the S&P 500 Index.
Washington: What to Watch Now
The Senate is continuing to work behind the scenes to develop its version of the "One Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill that passed the House by a singe vote in May.
Invest in Enterprise Products Partners for High and Stable Income
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs, aka Mr. Valuation presents a detailed analysis of Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), a midstream master limited partnership (MLP) known for its high income potential, offering investors a stable and growing dividend yield.
"Yen-Carry" Anniversary Nears, but Worries Fade
Summer re-runs are popular on TV, but a repeat of last August's "yen-carry" market upheaval isn't likely on the schedule. A shift in positioning by investors is one reason.
The Compute Capital Supercycle: AI’s Silent Infrastructure Revolution
In the history of technological progress, there's often a critical misreading. We think the leap is in the product—the engine, the chip, the app.
What Business Owners Need to Know About the New Tax Bill
The US 2025 tax bill enhances certain deductions and includes provisions for business growth and development. Our Bill Cass shares the highlights of what is being debated on Capitol Hill and the impact on business owners.
An Active Option to Ponder as Bonds Look More Compelling
With tariff news providing constant equity market fluctuations, the case for bonds becomes more compelling. The added uncertainty also punctuates the need for an active management strategy, which one particular Vanguard ETF offers.
Should Investors Consider Options-Based Strategies to Help Manage Portfolio Risk?
Financial markets have been experiencing some of their wildest trading days in history this year. Stock and bond prices have been moving in unison—an alarming scenario for investors and their advisors. With increased volatility, long-term investors might benefit from additional exposure to alternative strategies within their portfolio allocations.
Harvard and Yale Will Finally Lift the Veil on Private Assets
If I told someone with even a little investing experience that I own an asset that pays like stocks but is stable like bonds, they would probably think I was a huckster or a fool. Yet many of the most sophisticated investors claim to own such a thing.
Cautious Optimism: Shift Exposure, Stay Balanced
Despite inflation worries, fiscal deficit concerns, and continued geopolitical conflict, equity markets posted strong returns in May on the back of easing tariff tensions, lower probability of recession, and better than expected US Q1 earnings.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Cooler Than Expected in May
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
BlackRock Targets $400 Billion Private-Market Haul by 2030
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, boosted its annual revenue target for 2030 and set its first-ever firmwide target for private-markets fundraising at $400 billion by then.
US Long-Dated Debt Faces Crucial Test in $22 Billion Auction
After weeks of hand-wringing around demand for long-term US debt, all eyes are on Thursday’s 30-year Treasury auction for a fresh read on whether spiraling deficits are causing investors to shun the maturity.
A Digital Dollar Is a Trade War Weapon
While crypto’s roots are libertarian and anti-state, stablecoins could serve to entrench the existing tech and monetary order dominated by the US, as 95% of them are dollar-denominated.
Deficit Pressures Treasuries… But No Crisis: US Treasury Market Is ‘Too Big to Fail’
The first half of 2025 has been driven by headlines that have caused volatility in both the stock and bond markets. While tariff negotiations have commanded the most attention, we are now pivoting to the federal budget deficit, which feels like a perpetual headline over the last 15 years.
Vanguard Debuts New Active Multi-Sector Bond ETF
Today, Vanguard released its newest bond fund, the Vanguard Multi-Sector Income Bond ETF (VGMS).
Gundlach: Illiquid Assets Don’t Belong in Liquid Vehicles
Integrating volatile and illiquid assets into the ETF structure is something to be avoided, Doubleline CEO and CIO Gundlach said.
Japan’s Corporate Reforms Create a Catalyst for Equity Returns
A new culture of reform at Japanese companies offers exciting potential for equity investors.
The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same
In the current land of uncertainty the markets and investors find themselves in, the monthly Employment Situation report is ‘must-see TV’ and will remain that way for the foreseeable future.
Will the Trump Tax Cuts Pay for Themselves?
Supporters of tax cuts argue that they eventually "pay for themselves" and lower deficits through economic growth and increased revenue, even without significant spending cuts.
What Is the Debt Ceiling and Why Does It Matter?
What's the debt ceiling? Learn how the debt ceiling works and how a default on federal debt could impact the U.S. stock market and economy.
The Fragmentation Era
With the world order in flux, investors can look to fortify portfolios by diversifying across global markets and capitalizing on attractive, high quality yields.
Real Middle Class Wages as of May 2025
This series has been updated to include the May release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,538, down 5.8% from over 50 years ago.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: May 2025
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Rises to 2.4% in May, Lower Than Expected
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
Treasuries Rally as Soft Inflation Fuels Bets on Fed Rate Cuts
US Treasuries surged as easing US consumer inflation prompted traders to increase their wagers on more than one Federal Reserve interest-rate cut this year.
A Focus on Fundamentals
While the immediate path for tariffs may drift lower, the U.S. legislative branch is hammering out a tax and spending bill that seems to favor tax cuts over lower spending, reviving worries over the U.S. budget deficit and a growing debt burden that cannot be ignored.
3 Different Gold ETF Strategies for the Second Half
Advisors looking to add or enhance existing gold exposures in their portfolio have a range of strategies to consider within the ETF vehicle.
What's the 10-Year Outlook for Major Asset Classes?
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
The Infrastructure That Lets the Future Happen
If we lived in a world where mobile signals were visible, the sky would shimmer like a storm—layers of frequencies rolling over rooftops, crossing oceans and saturating valleys.
2025 Mid-Year Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy
The U.S. economy and stock market face a confluence of challenges in the second half of the year, keeping the bar relatively (but not restrictively) high for outperformance.
Strategic vs. Tactical
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Intersection of Robotics & AI: Crucial Theme for Tech Sector
Robotics was one of the earliest examples of a disruptive technology. It enjoyed some time in the investment community limelight. But it was rapidly usurped by other innovative technologies, including AI.
Notes from the Desk: MBS Opportunities Amid Quiet Housing Market
The US housing market remains in a state of inertia. Despite the arrival of the spring selling season, both new and existing home sales continue to underwhelm.
Going Abroad for a Free Lunch
Diversification of portfolios using international equities can reduce volatility and enhance risk-adjusted returns, especially given recent geopolitical shifts that decrease correlations between U.S. and international markets. Despite some investor skepticism, and as we discuss below, the benefits of international diversification can be significant and should be considered in investment strategies.
Secure Returns: Investing in the World’s Largest Automotive Safety Supplier for Income and Growth
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, aka Mr. Valuation will do a comprehensive analysis of Autoliv Inc (ALV), the world’s largest automotive safety supplier.
Baby Boomer Employment Through the Decades: May 2025
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
Long-Term Employment Trends by Age and Gender: May 2025
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of May, the labor force participation rate is at 62.4%, down from 62.6% the previous month.
To Graduates: Skilled Trades Can Be a Practical Path to Success
A college degree may be a milestone that represents one possible career path. But it’s not your only route toward a future that is both financially sound and deeply fulfilling.
Stablecoins Bring Crypto to the Mainstream. What Could Go Wrong?
Stablecoins are a special flavor of cryptocurrency. Unlike Bitcoin or countless wildly traded memecoins, whose values rise and fall based on market moods, the most popular versions of these digital tokens are supposed to always be worth $1 each.
Wary Wall Street Positioning Leaves Room for S&P 500 to Rally
Analysts at firms including Barclays Plc and JPMorgan Chase & Co. see further upside for US stocks, in part because they expect institutional investors to abandon their cautious stance and ramp up exposure to equities.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Recovered Slightly in May
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The recovery was in large part due to owners expecting better business conditions and higher sales volumes.
A College Degree is no Longer a Risk-Free Investment
My unifying theory of finance is that everything goes seriously wrong when people start seeing something — a bond, a mortgage-backed security, a crypto exchange — as risk-free when it isn’t.
Meet the “Hermès of Gold” the Chinese Can’t Get Enough Of
The Fear Trade is what most Western investors are familiar with. It’s the flight to safety during times of uncertainty, driven by concerns over inflation, interest rates, geopolitical risk and more.
The View From The Far East
I spent the last two weeks of May catching up with partners and clients in Malaysia, Singapore, China, and Hong Kong. Following are some reflections on those conversations.
Implementation Matters. Is Your OCIO Built to Execute?
Here’s the blunt truth: Many great investment strategies fail because of poor implementation. Robust capabilities in trading, transition management, overlays and currencies are critical to executing a strategy.
Credit Investors Embrace Portfolio Trades as ETF Grip Eases
Investors looking to move big blocks of corporate bonds have long relied on exchange-traded funds listed on stock exchanges to jump in and out of positions. But now, they’re increasingly trading directly in the debt market.
Wall Street Has a Hot Way to Sell Private Assets to the Masses
The push to put private assets in the hands of individual investors is breathing new life into a relatively quiet corner of the asset management industry: interval funds.
Mid-Year Outlook: International Stocks and Economy
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Gold ETF Momentum Eased in May With Modest Outflows
For the first time in five months, gold-backed ETFs globally reported modest outflows in May as investors took profits.
Stocks Bloom In May
After falling 0.7% in April, the S&P 500 gained 6.3% last month, marking the index’s best May return since 1990 and its best monthly return since November 2023 (see the chart).
Thoughts on Inflation
Back during the Financial Panic of 2008, clickbait media kept screaming “Hyperinflation.” We consistently pushed back against this theme, and argued inflation would not accelerate.
Jobs Report Yields Sigh of Relief
Last week’s employment report was an important stabilizer for the markets. After concerning revisions and weak ADP numbers raised recession alarms, Friday’s payrolls print calmed fears on labor market deterioration.
World Markets Watchlist: June 9, 2025
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through June 9, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 23.23%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 17.73% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.93%.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: May 2025
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 139,000.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: May 2025
May's employment report showed that 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours)5
401(k) Podcast Warns Baby Boomers in Target Date Funds to Get Out
Investors nearing or in retirement who are currently defaulted into TDFs need to stop defaulting and move to safety now.
Employee of the Month: Term Life Insurance
As small business clients look toward ambitious growth, advisors have the chance to offer something foundational: a term life insurance strategy that turns ambitions into a legacy.
Stablecoins to the Treasury’s Rescue
Stablecoins and the concept of digital money represent a significant shift from the current system. While there are many risks with digital money, there is also promise.
US Treasuries Win Some Respite as Key 30-Year Auction Looms
US Treasuries were trimming overnight gains, with modest weakness in longer dated debt as investors awaited a Thursday auction of 30-year securities that will offer a fresh test of demand for the beleaguered securities.
Multiple Jobholders Account for 5.2% of Workers in May 2025
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in May.
Yale’s $2.5 Billion Private Equity Sale Tests its Vaunted Endowment Model
Yale University’s $41 billion endowment, led for decades by the late investing giant David Swensen, has been the envy – and the blueprint — for many US universities eager to secure their financial future.
Active ETFs Gain Further Momentum in 2025
Increasing investor preference for actively managed strategies continues in this year’s tumultuous environment. With active ETFs taking increasing market share, advisors and investors have ever-expanding choices when looking to augment existing passive exposures.
Good News and Creative Destruction
Today we’ll continue our SIC highlight series featuring a relatively new face who is now indispensable, plus some new ones who were crowd favorites.
Does Consumer Spending Drive Earnings Growth?
It would seem evident that most investors would understand that consumer spending drives economic growth, ultimately creating corporate earnings growth. Yet, despite this somewhat tautological statement, Wall Street appears to ignore this simple reality when forecasting forward earnings.
Lost Opportunity, Closed Window and Measurement Issues
The Federal Reserve (Fed) lost its chance to lower interest rates further during the first half of the year, when inflation came down to close to its 2.0% target with very limited risk that its decision would have triggered higher inflation.
Seven Questions Before Hiring a Systematic Fixed-Income Manager
Systematic fixed-income investing is attracting increased attention but needs specialist skills and resources. Would your manager have what it takes?
Investing Expeditions: The Ripple Effects of Trade Uncertainty
Research trips are an integral component of our active, fundamental investment process. Our investment teams meet with different companies, attend conferences, and travel to new markets around the world, gaining insights for our clients and a deeper understanding of potential investments.
Gold 2025 Midyear Outlook: A High(er) for Long(er) Gold Price Regime
Rebounding demand from ETF investors and resilient buying from central banks and Asia retail have propelled gold prices to fresh records north of US$3,000/oz. Find out why we believe there is more room to run.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Labor Market in Focus
Last week, the labor market took center stage, presenting a nuanced picture of continued resilience alongside subtle signs of softening.
Will the "Big Beautiful" Tax Bill Affect Munis?
The bill contains several tax-code changes that could affect municipal bonds, although we don't think it reduces the appeal of munis for high-income earners.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: June 6, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 6, 2025 at 4.51%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.04% and the 30-year note ended at 4.97%.
The Big Four Recession Indicators
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
A Roundup of the Most Innovative ETFs Launched in May
The ETF market saw a noticeable slowdown of new products launched in May; however, innovation continued to be a driving force.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: May Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In May, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 139,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.
Wall Street Has a Hot Way to Sell Private Assets to the Masses
The push to put private assets in the hands of individual investors is breathing new life into a relatively quiet corner of the asset management industry: interval funds.
Treasuries Drop as Strong Jobs Data Curb Bets on Fed Rate Cuts
Treasuries fell as faster-than-expected US job and wage growth prompted traders to trim back bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
Employment Report: 139K Jobs Added in May, More Than Expected
The latest employment report showed that 139,000 jobs were added in May, down from 147,000 in April but higher than the expected 126,000 addition. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, as expected.
Financial Repression Won’t Make Interest Rates Lower
The federal government, financial markets and most Americans are all in a state of denial about interest rates.
Private Equity in 401(k)s Isn’t as Smart as It Seems: The Editorial Board
The White House is seriously considering the proposal, at the behest of some of the country’s largest financial firms.
Fixed Income Outlook: Cool and Cloudy
Bouts of volatility may continue in the second half of 2025 as bond market investors navigate evolving tariff policy, U.S. government debt, and economic uncertainty.
Charting the U.S. Consumer with Kristofer Kraus
Kristofer Kraus, portfolio manager and co-lead of PIMCO’s asset-based finance business, charts the nuances behind the overall resilience of U.S. consumers – and explains how these insights shape lending and investment strategies.
Let Your Winners Run: Why SMID-Cap Investing May Be the All-Star Strategy Your Portfolio Needs
Abstract SMID-cap investing offers stronger performance and lower volatility than small-caps alone. By using the Russell 2500 index, investors can retain top performers longer, reduce turnover, and enhance portfolio resilience and flexibility.
Privacore Capital and Partners Capital Investment Group Launch Alternative Growth Registered Fund (“AltsGrow”)
Privacore Capital, an affiliate of Janus Henderson and an open-architecture solutions provider for alternative investment products tailored to the private wealth market, and Partners Capital Investment Group, a global Investment Office, today announced the launch of the Privacore PCAAM Alternative Growth Fund (“AltsGrow”).
The Debt Spiral, Gold’s Rise, and the Dollar’s Fall
Gold’s recent surge to $3,500 was quickly followed by a sharp correction. Each tariff update or diplomatic rumor sends markets into a frenzy—rallying stocks, selling gold, or reversing course the next day.
Barometer: Cautious on Equities as Us Flip-Flops on Tariffs
We remain underweight most developed market stocks as US tariff policy is still unclear but are more enthusiastic about emerging market assets.