Please join Dan Magnusson and Bob Minter from abrdn, as they discuss how the commodity asset class performed in 2024, current investment opportunities in the commodity space, and where broad commodities may fit within a diversified portfolio.
New Yorkers bowing their heads into a cutting wind is typically a bullish sign for natural gas prices, and this January is no exception.
The latest US sanctions on oil tankers hauling Russian petroleum look set to cause severe disruption across the nation’s export machine, with some of Moscow’s flows at risk of a near wipeout if history is any guide.
A look at how the renewable energy opportunity may and may not change.
Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are crafting a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic accord in the coming months while at the same time squeezing Iran and Venezuela, people familiar with the matter said.
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 17, 2025 at 4.61%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.27% and the 30-year note ended at 4.84%.
First came the raid on a Mexico City shopping center known for selling Chinese-made clothing, toys and electronics
Canada’s stock market — where returns have lagged the US for two straight years — might offer investors protection against a downturn in US stocks, a Toronto-based asset manager says.
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.
Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.
As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors.
Despite challenges, the U.S. market saw strong returns in 2024 with a "soft landing" for the economy, leading to key questions and emerging themes for investors in 2025.
Nominal retail sales in December were up 0.45% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.92% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.06% MoM and up 1.00% YoY.
Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief after a surprise slowdown in inflation spurred a stock rally and a plunge in bond yields, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve is on track to keep cutting rates this year.
No country wants external developments to drive up its borrowing costs and weaken its currency, which is what the UK is facing today, together with serious cyclical and structural challenges. But if the British government responds appropriately, recent market volatility might turn out to have a silver lining.
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
Outsourced trading is a growing trend among asset managers, with recent headlines illustrating how firms are reassessing their approach to how trading fits in their broader strategic plans.
The threat of tariffs is ramping up ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. This is pushing up silver and copper prices.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
The calendar page has turned, and that means we have the opportunity to get 2025 off to a good start.
The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.
Most of us like to ring in the new year with fresh energy. The Europeans appear to have made good on this resolution.
Gas prices were unchanged this past week while WTIC rose for a third straight week to its highest level in four months. As of January 13th, the price of regular and premium gas were unchanged from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $77.30, up 5.1% from last week.
Wall Street was set for a higher open on Tuesday, though a renewed rise in Treasury yields damped the sentiment boost offered earlier by the prospect of gradually imposed US trade tariffs.
Ten years ago, Research Affiliates launched the Asset Allocation Interactive online tool, making our CMEs freely available to the public. With one full cycle complete, we can see what has worked well and where we can improve.
What happens when you simply don’t like a colleague but you need to work side-by-side with them every single day?
“Risk,” according to London Business School’s Elroy Dimson, “means that more things can happen than will happen.” Serhii Plokhy’s Chernobyl Roulette provides the reader with a compelling demonstration of that dictum.
For firms chasing digital empowerment it’s especially important to pay attention to the first 60 days of onboarding with a new technology and tech provider.
Traders are bracing for one of the most volatile earnings periods in stock market history.
Over the past few months, I’ve had occasion to speak at a number of conferences concerned with the impact of artificial intelligence on financial jobs.
As we kick off 2025, the economic landscape showcased a strong economy and resilient job market even as higher interest rates weigh on market sentiment. This week’s data underscore the delicate interplay between inflation expectations, real growth, and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.
Private equity wants access to Americans’ retirement accounts, and is lobbying President-elect Donald Trump’s administration to get it.
We identify four categories of risks to the growth outlook.
Every new year brings with it a new opportunity to stop for a moment, revisit resolutions, and refresh outlooks.
Two of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through January 13, 2025. Germany's DAXK is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 0.54% while France's CAC 40 is the only other index in positive territory with a year to date gain of 0.20%.
The Roaring 2020s have been very good so far, but not exceptional when examined in isolation. That said, when viewed in the context of the past 16 years, this record-breaking bull market is spectacular.
I’m not ready to concede that active bests the benchmarks by adding what I consider alpha. For example, “positioning the fund to have more credit risk than its benchmark” is a risk premium much in the same way that the equity risk premium produced returns over the risk-free rate. The credit risk premium may be worth it, but that’s beta, not alpha.
The US labor market has remained relatively strong, but the trend over the last year or so has been one of normalization back to the pre-pandemic levels.
The recent surge in bond yields is directing renewed attention to America’s grim fiscal outlook.
For decades, one of Saudi Arabia’s most strategic overseas outposts was a little-known office in New York City that coordinated its oil sales to American clients.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has upgraded its dollar forecasts, citing a robust US economy and likely higher tariffs that may slow monetary easing.
Treasuries extended their drop after Friday’s blowout employment report strengthened speculation that the Federal Reserve is poised to pause its interest-rate cuts for virtually all of this year.
OpenAI’s top executives are planning to host events in Washington DC and two key swing states to bolster support for investment in artificial intelligence as the company adapts to the biggest change in the US political landscape since ChatGPT launched.
The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.
Rough times are coming, yes, but I think we have at least 12 good months before the worst gets here. Let’s look at some of the reasons why things should be okay and then look at some of the potential problems.
Gold certainly had a great 2024, but 2025 is already shaping up to be an opportune year to build up more exposure through ETFs.
Energy is the star sector of the S&P 500 Index in the early days of 2025, shaking off two consecutive years when it was a market laggard, and gaining despite Wall Street’s dim outlook for oil and gas stocks.
Many people these days are on heightened alert for bubbles, and I’m often asked whether there’s a bubble surrounding the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the handful of stocks that have been leading it.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. December saw a 256,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment ticked down to 4.1%.
After cementing its position as the dominant player in the US for a niche but highly lucrative investment vehicle, Janus Henderson is looking to try its luck in Europe.
A contestant could be forgiven for guessing Boeing Co., but the correct answer would be General Electric Co., and the talented executive is Larry Culp.
Weather has always been a key factor influencing commodity prices, even though not very obvious at first glance. Agricultural yields depend on rainfall, frost can ruin crops, and hurricanes disrupt supply chains.
US equities were up notably in 2024, due to a strong economy, accelerating earnings growth, US election results, and AI/mega-cap strength.
US investment banks have little room for error in their upcoming full-year results.
After hitting nearly 80% of my predictions over the first five years, the past two years are calling into question whether I’m truly the ETF Nostradamus.
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the December 31, 2024 close.
When you aren’t the one in charge, you will always be vulnerable to whatever decisions the leaders might make.
The AI boom of the past two years has largely been a two-horse race. Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Microsoft Corp.-funded OpenAI have duked it out for customers, while Amazon.com Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. have nibbled at the margins for market share.
A few weeks ago, a reader emailed to challenge what he described as our “cautionary, skeptical and net negative” stance on Bitcoin.
On December 6, the S&P 500 set the most extreme level of valuations on record, exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks on measures that we find best-correlated with actual, subsequent 10-12 year S&P 500 total returns across a century of market cycles.
The new year begins with economic resilience, but investors should brace for a challenging path in 2025. Key economic indicators are still “goldilocks” and signal continued growth at a sustainable pace.
It’s important that investors remember to rebalance their commodity ETF exposure, particularly as equity ETFs had a strong year in 2024.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its December services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 54.1, better than the forecast of 53.5. The latest reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the sixth straight month.
The December U.S. services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 56.8, the highest level since March 2022. The latest reading came in below the forecast of 58.5 but keeps the index in expansion territory for the 23rd straight month.
The U.S. international trade in goods and services is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In November, the trade deficit expanded 6.2% to -$78.19B. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -$78.30B.
Stocks are coming off another banner year, but strength has bred a frothy sentiment environment, which continues to loom as a risk for likely coming volatility.
Despite a lackluster 2024 for most bonds, investors with an eye on the long-term time horizon could reap future benefits.
In a recent discussion on TheRealInvestmentShow, Bob Farrell and his 10 investment rules were discussed, which elicited several email questions asking, “Who is Bob Farrell, and where are these rules?”.
The most important issue regarding what lies ahead from an economic perspective is that the economy’s fundamentals remain solid with very few misalignments that could derail it, at least for now.
Three interconnected lessons from 2024 help shape our 2025 outlook.
The most telling moment in the Biden Administration’s decision to block Nippon Steel Corp.’s attempted takeover of United States Steel Corp. was unintentional.
Stocks rallied in 2024, delivering a second consecutive year of gains exceeding 20%, as investors embraced cooling inflation, falling interest rates and the prospect of lower corporate taxes under a second Trump administration.
Most people don’t pay much attention to the political process, either local or federal. This year I think it is something we should all be paying attention to as it might affect our various lives.
Money managers are seeing plenty of reasons to remain bullish on gold, following a stellar 2024 that saw the precious metal post its biggest annual gain since 2010.
President Joe Biden is indefinitely blocking offshore oil and gas development in more than 625 million acres of US coastal waters, warning that drilling there is simply “not worth the risks” and “unnecessary” to meet the nation’s energy needs.
The incoming Trump administration has set a goal of growing the economy by 3% per year, similar to promises made during Donald Trump’s first term in office.
After a strong November 2024, markets were generally down in December. The S&P 500 index was down 2.3%, while energy, small caps, value stocks, and REITs performed considerably worse.
Political uncertainty and volatility create fertile ground for active investors to find companies that can successfully navigate a new era.
The year ahead may present challenges as markets and the economy look to maintain momentum.
Gain insights into 2025’s top tech trends and market opportunities, and what experienced investors should consider for smart tech investments.
Although the general public might not pay much attention to such price swings, they still leave a serious impact on global trade and investment.
Wall Street is forecasting an 8% return in 2025. That’s below the 10.4% average nominal return over the past 99 years, but it is a forecast of even higher highs. Do you believe it? Will “The Bull” keep running this new year, or is it getting tired?
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.3 in December, higher than November's 48.4 reading, but keeping the index in contraction territory for the 9th straight month. The manufacturing sector has now contracted for 25 of the past 26 months. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 48.2.
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 49.4 in December from 49.7 in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of worsening conditions in the manufacturing sector. The latest reading was above the forecasted reading of 48.3.
Quant funds that make money surfing the momentum of markets saw a promising year slip away in 2024 when big bouts of volatility lashed everything from Japanese stocks to cocoa futures and Treasuries.
President Joe Biden has blocked the $14.1 billion sale of United States Steel Corp. to Nippon Steel Corp., killing a high-profile deal that sparked a political firestorm and tensions between the US and Japan.
Continued volatility, falling yields, and other expectations for the year ahead, plus seven strategies to take advantage.
December's market activity highlights the need for caution in the near term.
Commodities
Commodities: The year that was, the year that could be
Please join Dan Magnusson and Bob Minter from abrdn, as they discuss how the commodity asset class performed in 2024, current investment opportunities in the commodity space, and where broad commodities may fit within a diversified portfolio.
The US Gas Comeback Is Real
New Yorkers bowing their heads into a cutting wind is typically a bullish sign for natural gas prices, and this January is no exception.
The Definitive Guide to Where the US Has Squeezed Russia’s Oil Flows the Hardest
The latest US sanctions on oil tankers hauling Russian petroleum look set to cause severe disruption across the nation’s export machine, with some of Moscow’s flows at risk of a near wipeout if history is any guide.
Tariffs, Tempests, Turnarounds: What’s Next for Renewable Energy?
A look at how the renewable energy opportunity may and may not change.
Trump Team Readies Oil Sanctions Plan for Russia Deal, Iran Squeeze
Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are crafting a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic accord in the coming months while at the same time squeezing Iran and Venezuela, people familiar with the matter said.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: January 17, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 17, 2025 at 4.61%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.27% and the 30-year note ended at 4.84%.
Mexico Cozies Up to Trump With Crackdown on China Trade
First came the raid on a Mexico City shopping center known for selling Chinese-made clothing, toys and electronics
Canada a ‘Good Place to Hide’ If US Stocks Drop, Contrarian Says
Canada’s stock market — where returns have lagged the US for two straight years — might offer investors protection against a downturn in US stocks, a Toronto-based asset manager says.
A Deep Dive on the Recent Spike in U.S. Treasury Yields
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.
A US ETF Split Surge in Q4 2024: Digging Into the Data and What It Means for Investors
Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.
Balancing Caution and Optimism: Navigating 2025’s Market Dynamics
As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors.
2024 and 2025 Investment Insights: The Magnificent 7 Stocks, Sector Growth, and Emerging Themes
Despite challenges, the U.S. market saw strong returns in 2024 with a "soft landing" for the economy, leading to key questions and emerging themes for investors in 2025.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Up 0.1% in December
Nominal retail sales in December were up 0.45% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.92% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.06% MoM and up 1.00% YoY.
Wall Street Has Best CPI Day Since at Least 2023: Markets Wrap
Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief after a surprise slowdown in inflation spurred a stock rally and a plunge in bond yields, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve is on track to keep cutting rates this year.
Shock-Proofing the UK Economy
No country wants external developments to drive up its borrowing costs and weaken its currency, which is what the UK is facing today, together with serious cyclical and structural challenges. But if the British government responds appropriately, recent market volatility might turn out to have a silver lining.
Transforming 2024 Insights Into 2025 Action
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Strategic Income Outlook: Magic 8-Ball Says, “Cannot Predict Now”
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
Why More Asset Managers Are Outsourcing or Co-sourcing Trading
Outsourced trading is a growing trend among asset managers, with recent headlines illustrating how firms are reassessing their approach to how trading fits in their broader strategic plans.
Tariff Threats Boost Silver & Copper Prices
The threat of tariffs is ramping up ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. This is pushing up silver and copper prices.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: December 2024
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Ticks Up to 2.9% in December
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
Tax Planning in 2025: Five Key Topics to Discuss With Your Clients Now
The calendar page has turned, and that means we have the opportunity to get 2025 off to a good start.
2025 Outlook: Run It Back
The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.
Europe Moves Further Away From Russian Gas
Most of us like to ring in the new year with fresh energy. The Europeans appear to have made good on this resolution.
Gasoline Prices: WTIC Rises to 4-Month High
Gas prices were unchanged this past week while WTIC rose for a third straight week to its highest level in four months. As of January 13th, the price of regular and premium gas were unchanged from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $77.30, up 5.1% from last week.
Wall Street Set for Higher Open on Tariff Report
Wall Street was set for a higher open on Tuesday, though a renewed rise in Treasury yields damped the sentiment boost offered earlier by the prospect of gradually imposed US trade tariffs.
Asset Allocation Interactive at 10 Years: The Good, the Not Too Bad, and the Ugly
Ten years ago, Research Affiliates launched the Asset Allocation Interactive online tool, making our CMEs freely available to the public. With one full cycle complete, we can see what has worked well and where we can improve.
How Do I Work With Someone I Don’t Like?
What happens when you simply don’t like a colleague but you need to work side-by-side with them every single day?
Catastrophe’s Thin Red Line
“Risk,” according to London Business School’s Elroy Dimson, “means that more things can happen than will happen.” Serhii Plokhy’s Chernobyl Roulette provides the reader with a compelling demonstration of that dictum.
Make It or Break It: Why the First 60 Days of New Tech Adoption Are the Most Important
For firms chasing digital empowerment it’s especially important to pay attention to the first 60 days of onboarding with a new technology and tech provider.
Traders Brace for Biggest S&P Earnings-Day Reactions Ever
Traders are bracing for one of the most volatile earnings periods in stock market history.
Don’t Bank on Your Banking Job Outlasting AI
Over the past few months, I’ve had occasion to speak at a number of conferences concerned with the impact of artificial intelligence on financial jobs.
Economic Resilience Meets “Higher for Longer” Rates
As we kick off 2025, the economic landscape showcased a strong economy and resilient job market even as higher interest rates weigh on market sentiment. This week’s data underscore the delicate interplay between inflation expectations, real growth, and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.
Private Equity Does Not Belong in Your 401(k)
Private equity wants access to Americans’ retirement accounts, and is lobbying President-elect Donald Trump’s administration to get it.
What We're Worrying About
We identify four categories of risks to the growth outlook.
Market Predictions & ETF Ideas for a New Year
Every new year brings with it a new opportunity to stop for a moment, revisit resolutions, and refresh outlooks.
World Markets Watchlist: January 13, 2025
Two of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through January 13, 2025. Germany's DAXK is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 0.54% while France's CAC 40 is the only other index in positive territory with a year to date gain of 0.20%.
The Roaring 2020s Are Prodding the Bull
The Roaring 2020s have been very good so far, but not exceptional when examined in isolation. That said, when viewed in the context of the past 16 years, this record-breaking bull market is spectacular.
Examining the Case for Active Bond Investing
I’m not ready to concede that active bests the benchmarks by adding what I consider alpha. For example, “positioning the fund to have more credit risk than its benchmark” is a risk premium much in the same way that the equity risk premium produced returns over the risk-free rate. The credit risk premium may be worth it, but that’s beta, not alpha.
Labor Market Strong, But Normalization Continues
The US labor market has remained relatively strong, but the trend over the last year or so has been one of normalization back to the pre-pandemic levels.
Surging Bond Yields Make a Strong Case for Fiscal Sanity
The recent surge in bond yields is directing renewed attention to America’s grim fiscal outlook.
US Reliance on Saudi Oil Is Nearing Its Endgame
For decades, one of Saudi Arabia’s most strategic overseas outposts was a little-known office in New York City that coordinated its oil sales to American clients.
Goldman Sees Dollar Rallying 5% or More as US Growth Dominates
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has upgraded its dollar forecasts, citing a robust US economy and likely higher tariffs that may slow monetary easing.
Treasuries Selloff Ripples Through World Markets After Jobs Data
Treasuries extended their drop after Friday’s blowout employment report strengthened speculation that the Federal Reserve is poised to pause its interest-rate cuts for virtually all of this year.
OpenAI Emphasizes China Competition in Pitch to a New Washington
OpenAI’s top executives are planning to host events in Washington DC and two key swing states to bolster support for investment in artificial intelligence as the company adapts to the biggest change in the US political landscape since ChatGPT launched.
The Top 10 U.S. Aerospace and Defense Contractors
The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.
A Partly Cloudy Year
Rough times are coming, yes, but I think we have at least 12 good months before the worst gets here. Let’s look at some of the reasons why things should be okay and then look at some of the potential problems.
Gold Investments Still Shine This Year
Gold certainly had a great 2024, but 2025 is already shaping up to be an opportune year to build up more exposure through ETFs.
Energy Sector Goes From S&P 500’s ‘Worst to First’ in 2025 Start
Energy is the star sector of the S&P 500 Index in the early days of 2025, shaking off two consecutive years when it was a market laggard, and gaining despite Wall Street’s dim outlook for oil and gas stocks.
On Bubble Watch
Many people these days are on heightened alert for bubbles, and I’m often asked whether there’s a bubble surrounding the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the handful of stocks that have been leading it.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: December Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. December saw a 256,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment ticked down to 4.1%.
Janus Henderson Takes CLO-Tracking Fund to Europe After US Win
After cementing its position as the dominant player in the US for a niche but highly lucrative investment vehicle, Janus Henderson is looking to try its luck in Europe.
Boeing Investors Shouldn’t Bank on a GE-Style Windfall
A contestant could be forgiven for guessing Boeing Co., but the correct answer would be General Electric Co., and the talented executive is Larry Culp.
Climate Shocks: The Unseen Drivers of Commodity Market Fluctuations in 2023-2024
Weather has always been a key factor influencing commodity prices, even though not very obvious at first glance. Agricultural yields depend on rainfall, frost can ruin crops, and hurricanes disrupt supply chains.
With New Risks Surfacing, How Should Investors Position Portfolios in 2025?
US equities were up notably in 2024, due to a strong economy, accelerating earnings growth, US election results, and AI/mega-cap strength.
Bankers Need the Right Trump Outcome to Justify Stock Optimism
US investment banks have little room for error in their upcoming full-year results.
5 ETF Predictions for 2025
After hitting nearly 80% of my predictions over the first five years, the past two years are calling into question whether I’m truly the ETF Nostradamus.
The Four Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the December 31, 2024 close.
Low Standards and Big Secrets in the Workplace
When you aren’t the one in charge, you will always be vulnerable to whatever decisions the leaders might make.
Google’s Most Serious Rival Isn’t Microsoft. It’s a Startup
The AI boom of the past two years has largely been a two-horse race. Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Microsoft Corp.-funded OpenAI have duked it out for customers, while Amazon.com Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. have nibbled at the margins for market share.
Bitcoin Is Not a Nothing, But Not a Something Either
A few weeks ago, a reader emailed to challenge what he described as our “cautionary, skeptical and net negative” stance on Bitcoin.
Pressing for Yet More
On December 6, the S&P 500 set the most extreme level of valuations on record, exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks on measures that we find best-correlated with actual, subsequent 10-12 year S&P 500 total returns across a century of market cycles.
A Cautious Take on the New Year’s Market
The new year begins with economic resilience, but investors should brace for a challenging path in 2025. Key economic indicators are still “goldilocks” and signal continued growth at a sustainable pace.
Don’t Forget Commodity ETF Exposure in 2025
It’s important that investors remember to rebalance their commodity ETF exposure, particularly as equity ETFs had a strong year in 2024.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Sixth Straight Month in December
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its December services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 54.1, better than the forecast of 53.5. The latest reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the sixth straight month.
S&P Global Services PMI: Reaches 33-Month High in December
The December U.S. services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 56.8, the highest level since March 2022. The latest reading came in below the forecast of 58.5 but keeps the index in expansion territory for the 23rd straight month.
Trade Balance Jumps 6.2% in November
The U.S. international trade in goods and services is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In November, the trade deficit expanded 6.2% to -$78.19B. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -$78.30B.
It Was a Very Good Year
Stocks are coming off another banner year, but strength has bred a frothy sentiment environment, which continues to loom as a risk for likely coming volatility.
Bond Investors Could Reap Rewards in the Long Term
Despite a lackluster 2024 for most bonds, investors with an eye on the long-term time horizon could reap future benefits.
The Rules Of Bob Farrell – An Updated Illustrated Guide
In a recent discussion on TheRealInvestmentShow, Bob Farrell and his 10 investment rules were discussed, which elicited several email questions asking, “Who is Bob Farrell, and where are these rules?”.
Economy Will Remain Supportive of Markets in 2025
The most important issue regarding what lies ahead from an economic perspective is that the economy’s fundamentals remain solid with very few misalignments that could derail it, at least for now.
Three Investment Lessons From 2024
Three interconnected lessons from 2024 help shape our 2025 outlook.
Biden’s Steel Move Is No Way to Treat an Ally
The most telling moment in the Biden Administration’s decision to block Nippon Steel Corp.’s attempted takeover of United States Steel Corp. was unintentional.
AI Frenzy Drove the S&P 500’s Best Two-Year Gains Since the Dot-Com Era
Stocks rallied in 2024, delivering a second consecutive year of gains exceeding 20%, as investors embraced cooling inflation, falling interest rates and the prospect of lower corporate taxes under a second Trump administration.
A Controversial Start
Most people don’t pay much attention to the political process, either local or federal. This year I think it is something we should all be paying attention to as it might affect our various lives.
Gold Investors Stay Bullish for 2025 on Trump Volatility
Money managers are seeing plenty of reasons to remain bullish on gold, following a stellar 2024 that saw the precious metal post its biggest annual gain since 2010.
Biden Bars Offshore Oil Drilling in US Atlantic and Pacific
President Joe Biden is indefinitely blocking offshore oil and gas development in more than 625 million acres of US coastal waters, warning that drilling there is simply “not worth the risks” and “unnecessary” to meet the nation’s energy needs.
How Trump Can Achieve Sustained 3% GDP Growth
The incoming Trump administration has set a goal of growing the economy by 3% per year, similar to promises made during Donald Trump’s first term in office.
QuantStreet January 2025 Letter: Trump-Trade Reversal
After a strong November 2024, markets were generally down in December. The S&P 500 index was down 2.3%, while energy, small caps, value stocks, and REITs performed considerably worse.
Equity Outlook: Preparing for Profound Policy-Driven Change
Political uncertainty and volatility create fertile ground for active investors to find companies that can successfully navigate a new era.
2025 Investing Outlook
The year ahead may present challenges as markets and the economy look to maintain momentum.
Tech Investing in 2025: Emerging Trends and Market Opportunities
Gain insights into 2025’s top tech trends and market opportunities, and what experienced investors should consider for smart tech investments.
How Climate Volatility Is Redefining Commodity Markets
Although the general public might not pay much attention to such price swings, they still leave a serious impact on global trade and investment.
A 99-Year Perspective on US Markets — Is the Bull Getting Tired?
Wall Street is forecasting an 8% return in 2025. That’s below the 10.4% average nominal return over the past 99 years, but it is a forecast of even higher highs. Do you believe it? Will “The Bull” keep running this new year, or is it getting tired?
ISM Manufacturing Index Contracts for 9th Straight Month
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.3 in December, higher than November's 48.4 reading, but keeping the index in contraction territory for the 9th straight month. The manufacturing sector has now contracted for 25 of the past 26 months. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 48.2.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Tough End to 2024
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 49.4 in December from 49.7 in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of worsening conditions in the manufacturing sector. The latest reading was above the forecasted reading of 48.3.
Fast-Money Quants Saw Big Year Go Bust in Wild Cross-Asset Ride
Quant funds that make money surfing the momentum of markets saw a promising year slip away in 2024 when big bouts of volatility lashed everything from Japanese stocks to cocoa futures and Treasuries.
Biden Blocks Nippon Steel’s $14.1 Billion Takeover of US Steel
President Joe Biden has blocked the $14.1 billion sale of United States Steel Corp. to Nippon Steel Corp., killing a high-profile deal that sparked a political firestorm and tensions between the US and Japan.
Fixed-Income Outlook 2025: Fertile Ground
Continued volatility, falling yields, and other expectations for the year ahead, plus seven strategies to take advantage.
S&P 500 Records Its Second Straight Year of 20%-Plus Gains
December's market activity highlights the need for caution in the near term.