Large Cap Growth

The strong performance of large-cap stocks over the past decade has left the market exceptionally top-heavy. By some measures, stock market capitalization has never been more concentrated among a handful of large stocks as today.

The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.

Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.

As we kick off 2025, the economic landscape showcased a strong economy and resilient job market even as higher interest rates weigh on market sentiment. This week’s data underscore the delicate interplay between inflation expectations, real growth, and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.

Every new year brings with it a new opportunity to stop for a moment, revisit resolutions, and refresh outlooks.

Markets are coming off back-to-back gains of more than 20% each on an annual basis. The chances of a hat trick in 2025 are slim to none.

We are pro-risk, with the biggest overweight in U.S. stocks, yet eye three areas that could spur a view change.

The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.

Rough times are coming, yes, but I think we have at least 12 good months before the worst gets here. Let’s look at some of the reasons why things should be okay and then look at some of the potential problems.

With 2024 in the books, market participants now know that the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index surged about 85% over the past two years.

Many people these days are on heightened alert for bubbles, and I’m often asked whether there’s a bubble surrounding the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the handful of stocks that have been leading it.

2024 certainly saw cap-weighted strategies outperform equally weighted alternatives, but that could very well change this year.

After another resilient year for the US economy, we look ahead to the new year.

U.S. equities closed 2024 on top and U.S. growth took back leadership from U.S. value.

US equities were up notably in 2024, due to a strong economy, accelerating earnings growth, US election results, and AI/mega-cap strength.

After hitting nearly 80% of my predictions over the first five years, the past two years are calling into question whether I’m truly the ETF Nostradamus.

In our year ahead outlook, we unveil 5 key factors we believe offer rare certainty in these uncertain times. Discover how we’re navigating this landscape and positioning portfolios to seize opportunities and mitigate risks in the year ahead.

Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. Investors should expect more equity market volatility ahead.

On December 6, the S&P 500 set the most extreme level of valuations on record, exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks on measures that we find best-correlated with actual, subsequent 10-12 year S&P 500 total returns across a century of market cycles.

The new year begins with economic resilience, but investors should brace for a challenging path in 2025. Key economic indicators are still “goldilocks” and signal continued growth at a sustainable pace.

Stocks are coming off another banner year, but strength has bred a frothy sentiment environment, which continues to loom as a risk for likely coming volatility.

2024 was about as good as it gets in the equity markets – with the BGEP up 31% and the broader market as a whole posting double digit gains. Underneath the surface, we believe that there are three main drivers of the year’s solid returns. We discuss them below in our market review and outlook.

The same themes that drove sharp 2024 returns among the Magnificent 7 stocks appear to be very much alive in the new year.

Stocks rallied in 2024, delivering a second consecutive year of gains exceeding 20%, as investors embraced cooling inflation, falling interest rates and the prospect of lower corporate taxes under a second Trump administration.

Most people don’t pay much attention to the political process, either local or federal. This year I think it is something we should all be paying attention to as it might affect our various lives.

Continuing last year's trend, our 2025 outlook shows fixed income benefiting from high rates, while equities face a narrowing edge over risk-free investments.

After a strong November 2024, markets were generally down in December. The S&P 500 index was down 2.3%, while energy, small caps, value stocks, and REITs performed considerably worse.

Political uncertainty and volatility create fertile ground for active investors to find companies that can successfully navigate a new era.

The year ahead may present challenges as markets and the economy look to maintain momentum.

The AI market has evolved significantly in the past two years, shifting from a heavy reliance on mega-cap and semiconductor dominance to a more diverse set of beneficiaries.

December's market activity highlights the need for caution in the near term.

The market commentary will explore market predictions, the Santa Claus Rally, and the current state of the markets heading into 2025.

Investors continue to enjoy the bull market but remain somewhat nervous about valuation. Policy uncertainty is higher than usual, in part because there are so many policy changes at the same time.

I expect three major innovation cycles to dramatically affect our world in the next decade, with impacts comparable to steam engines, electricity, automobiles, and even the internet. Every new invention helps us explore even further.

I never thought someone would label me a “Permabull.” This is particularly true of the numerous articles I wrote over the years about the risks of excess valuations, monetary interventions, and artificially suppressed interest rates.

We prefer equities over fixed income, in particular U.S. equities as the outlook for the U.S. economy is solid and promising.

The S&P 500 Index posted its best month of the year in November, with a clear election result and a “no-surprise” Fed rate cut providing support.

Last week’s market volatility was not surprising for readers of these commentaries, as I anticipated a jarring adjustment to readouts from the Fed Dot Plot that suggested less rate cuts in 2025.

Today often kicks off the Santa Claus rally. Stocks rose and volatility is down sharply from recent peaks, but yields keep rising, which has hurt the non-tech part of the market.

Over the last decade, U.S. large cap growth stocks have been far and away the best performing major financial asset in the world.

If you happen to be a Bitcoin skeptic, you’re not alone. A recent Pew Research survey found that 63% of Americans are not confident in the reliability or safety of cryptocurrencies in general.