Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account. Margin debt is often seen as a measure of investor sentiment and risk appetite. High levels of margin debt can signal confidence, but extreme spikes may also indicate excessive speculation, increasing the risk of market instability.
New home sales reached a six-month high in March while the median price fell for a second straight month.
Stock markets have been rattled by trade war tensions and economic uncertainty driven by US tariff policies. Yet history suggests that equities have usually performed well in the aftermath of peak market volatility.
Andrew Leigh is a very good storyteller, making “How Economics Explains the World” an easy and fun read. In the hands of someone unfamiliar with basic economic reasoning, it might lead them to pursue economics further. Even if you’re farther along in your economic education, we almost always benefit from relearning things we already know, but in a new light.
Four of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through April 21, 2025. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.03%. Germany’s DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 5.35% while China's Shanghai is in third with a year to date gain of 0.88%.
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed a decline in activity this month. The index sank nearly 39 points to -26.4, its lowest reading in two years. The latest reading was much lower than the forecast of 2.2.
The month of April will unfortunately go down in financial market folklore as being one of the more noteworthy on record.
Nominal retail sales in March were up 1.43% month-over-month (MoM) and up 4.60% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 1.48% MoM and up 2.15% YoY.
Builder confidence inched up in April thanks to a recent dip in mortgage rates however economic uncertainty stemming from tariff concerns kept sentiment negative for a 12th straight month. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 40 this month, up 1 point from March. The latest reading was above the 38 forecast.
In San Francisco’s financial district, the One Montgomery building evokes the opulence of America’s turn of the 20th century gilded age. With its Tuscan columns, marble staircases and bronze doors, the Renaissance Revival landmark once housed Crocker Bank, named after one of the tycoons who built the western portion of America’s first transcontinental railroad.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for March showed a surge in consumer spending last month, with headline sales rising 1.4%. This is the largest monthly increase since January 2023 and higher than the expected 1.3% growth.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
While we continue to feel the U.S. has structural investment advantages, we are mindful that the scope of the current administration's policy shifts may present challenges to our sustained economic momentum.
Travel on all roads and streets declined in February. The 12-month moving average was down 0.11% month-over-month but was up 0.95% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.17% MoM and down 0.95% YoY.
Manufacturing activity contracted for a second consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing April survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions rose 11.9 points but remained below zero at -8.1. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -12.8.
Wholesale inflation unexpectedly fell in March, dropping for the first time in 17 months. The producer price index for final demand was down 0.4% month-over-month after a 0.1% increase in February. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
Concerns about a trade war have rattled markets so far in 2025, but we believe fixed income investors need to be patient, stay defensive, and see how things evolve before making any big decisions.
Q1 earnings season is about to kick off amidst what some might consider to be the most uncertain environment for US corporations since the COVID-19 pandemic.
This series has been updated to include the March release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,322, down 5.9% from over 50 years ago.
Inflation cooled for a second straight month in March, falling to its lowest level in over four years. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
A Wall Street axiom states that the stock markets lead the economy by about six months. While not a perfect predictor, the stock market reacts to investor expectations about future corporate earnings, economic activity, interest rates, and inflation.
How might the recently announced US trade measures translate into economic reality?
With a number of factors at play, the short-term pullback in gold will likely meet resistance to the long-term, unchanged fundamentals,
When it’s finally completed seven years from now, Citadel LLC’s New York tower will be the second tallest building in the city, after the World Trade Center. It will also loom over the headquarters of JPMorgan Chase & Co. just a few hundred yards south along Park Avenue.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for March. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 228,000.
BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said New York is plagued by crime and filth and lacks enough good schools, and he called on politicians to make it easier for financial firms to do business in the city.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped for a third straight month, falling to 97.4 in March. Notably, the net percent of small business owners expecting higher sales volume fell for a third consecutive month after surging from recession levels after the election.
March's employment report showed that 82.6% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).
Traders boosted expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year — and raised the specter of a reduction before the central bank’s next meeting — as the US administration’s tariffs ignite fears of a global recession.
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the March 31, 2025 close.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In March, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 228,000, while the unemployment rate inched up to 4.2%.
Investors crushed the stocks of consumer discretionary companies on Thursday in response to President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, making little distinction between home goods companies such as Williams-Sonoma Inc., apparel names including Nike Inc. or restaurants such as Cheesecake Factory Inc.
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed as exports surged and imports inched lower. In February, the trade deficit shrank 6.1% to -$122.7B, the first decline in four months.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its March Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 50.8—below the forecast of 53.0. This marks the ninth consecutive month of expansion but the slowest growth since June 2024.
The March U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 54.4, just above the 54.3 forecast. The reading marks the 26th consecutive month of expansion and the fastest growth of the year so far.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 26.1 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 34.7.
Investors often debate the merits of value versus growth investing, but when it comes to developed international equities, the conversation isn't static; it moves in cycles.
February's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed a larger-than-anticipated drop in job openings, falling to 7.568 million from January's revised 7.762 million. The latest reading was below the forecast of 7.690 million. Additionally, layoffs and hiring saw slight increases, while quits declined.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.0 in March, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing after marginal expansion in February. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 49.5.
U.S. manufacturing growth stalled in March amid economic and tariff uncertainty. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a third straight month in March at 50.2 signaling a marginal improvement in operating conditions. The latest reading was higher than the 49.8 forecast.
In a recent piece, I analyzed the construction of downside-protected strategies. Here, I propose a measure of the relative attractiveness of these strategies over time and examine their historical performance.
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for March. The general business activity index came in at -16.3, its lowest level since July. This marks an 8 point decline from the previous month and the second straight monthly decline.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) rose for a third straight month in March, reaching its highest level since November 2023. The index increased to 47.6 from 45.5 in February, surpassing the 45.5forecast. The latest reading marks the 16th consecutive month the index has contracted.
With the release of February's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.83% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.50% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 3.63% nominal and 1.06% real.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in February and is up 3.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.1% month-over-month and up 1.1% year-over-year.
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report showed inflation remained elevated at the start of 2025. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 2.8% year-over-year in February and 0.4% from December. Both readings were higher than expected.
Investing requires more than just understanding global markets. Geopolitical risk matters, from China to Russia to Europe and more.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q4 GDP second estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.
The third estimate for Q4 GDP came in at 2.45%, a deceleration from 3.07% for the Q3 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.82%, a slowdown from 2.22% for the Q3 headline number.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity decreased modestly in March, with the composite index at -2. This is slightly above February's -5 reading and is tied for the highest reading since August 2023. Future expectations stayed positive, though they dipped from 14 in February to 10 in March.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index increased more than expected in February, rebounding from the previous month's record low. The index came in at 72.0, a 2.0% rise from the previous month but a 3.6% drop from one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to rise 0.9% month-over-month.
Discord Inc., a social communications platform popular with video-game players and programmers, is working with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. on an initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter.
The global economy is undergoing an unprecedented wave of industrial and infrastructure expansion, driving relentless demand for commodities across energy, metals and agriculture.
The parallels between the AI narrative driving the current market and the dot-com bubble of a quarter century ago raise important concerns for investors.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® sank to its lowest level in over four years in March. The index fell to 92.9 this month from February's upwardly revised 100.1, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak since 2012
Home prices continued to trend upwards in December as the benchmark national index rose for a 24th consecutive month to a 19th straight record high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.6% increase MoM, and a 4.1% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.3% and YoY fell to -0.5%.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 436.5 in January. U.S. house prices were up 0.2% from the previous month, as expected, and up 4.8% from one year ago. This marks the 29th consecutive monthly increase for the index.
The sense of gloom on Wall Street is putting pressure on some of the most committed backers of American exceptionalism: South Korea’s risk-seeking retail investors.
With only eight trading days left in the first quarter, M&A announcements are set to come in at their lowest level since Q2 2020.
Existing home sales rebounded in February with their largest monthly increase in a year. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales rose 4.2% from January, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million units in February.
On the predictable side, the Fed kept policy rates in a range of 4.25%-4.5%, and the rate-setting committee pledged to slow the pace at which it’s allowing securities to roll off its balance sheet.
The Federal Reserve concluded its second meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
One of the biggest challenges investors face today is navigating the most concentrated U.S. stock market in history, where the largest stocks represent a record share of total market value.
As of Q4 2024, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 93% since the 2009 trough.
As the consumer goes, so goes the U.S. economy. Consumers make up roughly 70 percent of U.S. GDP.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said the neutral level for the central bank’s policy rate had likely risen since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Ever since interest rates got up off the floor in 2022, there’s been increased interest in credit, and that’s why I’m devoting this memo to it. It’ll come a little closer than usual to “talking my book,” but I think the subject justifies that.
The world’s recent experience of faster inflation may make it harder for central banks to control prices in future, former US Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke said.
Ultra-wealthy investors have unique needs and goals. While a typical high net worth client is focused on the next dozen years, these more deep-pocketed clients – like their institutional counterparts – have a much longer time horizon.
Russ Koesterich discusses the risk of higher interest rates and the potential impact (both positive and negative) such a move could have on markets.
Eggs add to perceptions of high inflation.
Should you avoid lower-rated, riskier investments like high-yield corporate bonds or bank loans? Not necessarily, but you should understand the risks.
The U.S. economy remains structurally productive. American Economic Exceptionalism is powered by innovation and labor flexibility.
For the last five years, BP Plc has put ideology ahead of profitability. This week, its board of directors has a final chance to change direction. If it doesn’t, an investor revolt will follow, and many executives could be out of a job by summer.
Efforts to secure supply chains and energy sources are creating powerful and enduring themes for equity investors—even in these turbulent times.
Trump Confusion Syndrome, or TCS, is distinct from Trump Derangement Syndrome in which afflicted people feel outrage about everything the president says or does. TCS isn’t about agreeing or disagreeing. It’s mostly about understanding. And then when something still seems wrong, feeling free to say it out loud.
Building a bond portfolio these days isn’t easy. Interest rates have been volatile. Credit spreads are tight. And sweeping change in US fiscal, trade, and regulatory policy is underway. We think securitized assets deserve a closer look.
We are observing a significant shift in global supply chains away from China, presenting a substantial investment opportunity. What are the reasons behind this shift?
While domestic politics can certainly influence asset prices, it is just one of many variables, and our research has shown it to be an inaccurate indicator of future returns. We caution investors against making changes to their portfolios based on political developments.
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.
The urbanist and economist Edward Glaeser called cities “man’s greatest invention,” but cities have hit a bit of a rough patch lately. Why are cities so important to human life? What has gone wrong with them? And what can we do to make urban life better?
In the report, Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons explain the reasons for healthcare’s recent underperformance and why they believe valuations are now disconnected from the sector’s long-term prospects.
Despite continued underperformance in 2024, the biotech sector enters 2025 with a brighter outlook driven by groundbreaking innovations like mRNA cancer vaccines and CRISPR-based therapies.
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
Are U.S. stocks in a massive valuation bubble? We don’t think so. Will U.S. stocks outperform their European and Asian counterparts over the next 10 years? Maybe.
The Second Trump Era has begun. If you are confident about what it will bring (either good or bad), I would like to gently suggest you reconsider. None of us should be sure what is coming.
European equity markets may look vulnerable to fallout from new US policies. But some companies offer investors reasons to cheer.
Netflix Inc. shares soared to a record high on Wednesday after the streaming giant reported its biggest quarterly subscriber gain in history, buoyed by its first major live sporting events and the return of Squid Game.
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
COVID-19: Coronavirus Coverage
Margin Debt: March 2025
Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account. Margin debt is often seen as a measure of investor sentiment and risk appetite. High levels of margin debt can signal confidence, but extreme spikes may also indicate excessive speculation, increasing the risk of market instability.
New Home Sales Reach Six-Month High in March
New home sales reached a six-month high in March while the median price fell for a second straight month.
Gauging the Fear Factor: From Volatility Peaks to Equity Returns
Stock markets have been rattled by trade war tensions and economic uncertainty driven by US tariff policies. Yet history suggests that equities have usually performed well in the aftermath of peak market volatility.
Is Economics About Everything? A Review of ‘How Economics Explains the World'
Andrew Leigh is a very good storyteller, making “How Economics Explains the World” an easy and fun read. In the hands of someone unfamiliar with basic economic reasoning, it might lead them to pursue economics further. Even if you’re farther along in your economic education, we almost always benefit from relearning things we already know, but in a new light.
World Markets Watchlist: April 21, 2025
Four of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through April 21, 2025. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.03%. Germany’s DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 5.35% while China's Shanghai is in third with a year to date gain of 0.88%.
Gauging the Fear Factor: From Volatility Peaks to Equity Returns
Stock markets have been rattled by trade war tensions and economic uncertainty driven by US tariff policies. Yet history suggests that equities have usually performed well in the aftermath of peak market volatility.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: Sinks to 2-Year Low
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed a decline in activity this month. The index sank nearly 39 points to -26.4, its lowest reading in two years. The latest reading was much lower than the forecast of 2.2.
The Fed Can Use the “Alphabet” if Need Be
The month of April will unfortunately go down in financial market folklore as being one of the more noteworthy on record.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Jump 1.5% in March
Nominal retail sales in March were up 1.43% month-over-month (MoM) and up 4.60% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 1.48% MoM and up 2.15% YoY.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Uncertainty Continues to Weigh on Builder Confidence
Builder confidence inched up in April thanks to a recent dip in mortgage rates however economic uncertainty stemming from tariff concerns kept sentiment negative for a 12th straight month. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 40 this month, up 1 point from March. The latest reading was above the 38 forecast.
Billionaires and CEOs Bet on Cheap San Francisco Real Estate
In San Francisco’s financial district, the One Montgomery building evokes the opulence of America’s turn of the 20th century gilded age. With its Tuscan columns, marble staircases and bronze doors, the Renaissance Revival landmark once housed Crocker Bank, named after one of the tycoons who built the western portion of America’s first transcontinental railroad.
Retail Sales Surge 1.4% in March, Higher Than Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for March showed a surge in consumer spending last month, with headline sales rising 1.4%. This is the largest monthly increase since January 2023 and higher than the expected 1.3% growth.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: March 2025
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Equity Outlook: American Exceptionalism Reexamined
While we continue to feel the U.S. has structural investment advantages, we are mindful that the scope of the current administration's policy shifts may present challenges to our sustained economic momentum.
America's Driving Habits: February 2025
Travel on all roads and streets declined in February. The 12-month moving average was down 0.11% month-over-month but was up 0.95% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.17% MoM and down 0.95% YoY.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Continued to Contract in April
Manufacturing activity contracted for a second consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing April survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions rose 11.9 points but remained below zero at -8.1. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -12.8.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Unexpectedly Falls in March
Wholesale inflation unexpectedly fell in March, dropping for the first time in 17 months. The producer price index for final demand was down 0.4% month-over-month after a 0.1% increase in February. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
Strategic Income Outlook: Magic 8-Ball Says, “Ask Again Later"
Concerns about a trade war have rattled markets so far in 2025, but we believe fixed income investors need to be patient, stay defensive, and see how things evolve before making any big decisions.
Q1 Earnings Season Mired in Uncertainty as Banks Begin Reporting Friday
Q1 earnings season is about to kick off amidst what some might consider to be the most uncertain environment for US corporations since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Real Middle Class Wages as of March 2025
This series has been updated to include the March release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,322, down 5.9% from over 50 years ago.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Cools to 2.4% in March
Inflation cooled for a second straight month in March, falling to its lowest level in over four years. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
The Stock Market Warning Of A Recession?
A Wall Street axiom states that the stock markets lead the economy by about six months. While not a perfect predictor, the stock market reacts to investor expectations about future corporate earnings, economic activity, interest rates, and inflation.
The Tale of Tariffs Round Two for the US Economy
How might the recently announced US trade measures translate into economic reality?
Should You Be Concerned About the Pullback in Gold?
With a number of factors at play, the short-term pullback in gold will likely meet resistance to the long-term, unchanged fundamentals,
Shadow Banks Are Too Big to Stay in the Shadows
When it’s finally completed seven years from now, Citadel LLC’s New York tower will be the second tallest building in the city, after the World Trade Center. It will also loom over the headquarters of JPMorgan Chase & Co. just a few hundred yards south along Park Avenue.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: March 2025
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for March. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 228,000.
Larry Fink to New York: Fix Crime, Filth or Lose More Firms
BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said New York is plagued by crime and filth and lacks enough good schools, and he called on politicians to make it easier for financial firms to do business in the city.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Sales Growth Expectations Scaled Back
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped for a third straight month, falling to 97.4 in March. Notably, the net percent of small business owners expecting higher sales volume fell for a third consecutive month after surging from recession levels after the election.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: March 2025
March's employment report showed that 82.6% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).
Traders Add to Bets on 2025 Fed Cuts With Risk of Emergency Move
Traders boosted expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year — and raised the specter of a reduction before the central bank’s next meeting — as the US administration’s tariffs ignite fears of a global recession.
The Four Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the March 31, 2025 close.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: March Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In March, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 228,000, while the unemployment rate inched up to 4.2%.
Where Will Consumers Go?
Investors crushed the stocks of consumer discretionary companies on Thursday in response to President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, making little distinction between home goods companies such as Williams-Sonoma Inc., apparel names including Nike Inc. or restaurants such as Cheesecake Factory Inc.
Trade Deficit Narrows in February as Exports Surge
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed as exports surged and imports inched lower. In February, the trade deficit shrank 6.1% to -$122.7B, the first decline in four months.
ISM Services PMI: Lowest Reading Since June
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its March Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 50.8—below the forecast of 53.0. This marks the ninth consecutive month of expansion but the slowest growth since June 2024.
S&P Global Services PMI: Growth Picked Up in March
The March U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 54.4, just above the 54.3 forecast. The reading marks the 26th consecutive month of expansion and the fastest growth of the year so far.
P/E10 and Market Valuation: March 2025
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 26.1 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 34.7.
The Rhythm of Style: Value vs. Growth in Developed International Markets—Part 1
Investors often debate the merits of value versus growth investing, but when it comes to developed international equities, the conversation isn't static; it moves in cycles.
Job Openings Fall More Than Expected in February
February's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed a larger-than-anticipated drop in job openings, falling to 7.568 million from January's revised 7.762 million. The latest reading was below the forecast of 7.690 million. Additionally, layoffs and hiring saw slight increases, while quits declined.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: Slipped to Contraction Territory in March
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.0 in March, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing after marginal expansion in February. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 49.5.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Growth Stalled in March
U.S. manufacturing growth stalled in March amid economic and tariff uncertainty. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a third straight month in March at 50.2 signaling a marginal improvement in operating conditions. The latest reading was higher than the 49.8 forecast.
Downside-Protected Strategies: Relative Value
In a recent piece, I analyzed the construction of downside-protected strategies. Here, I propose a measure of the relative attractiveness of these strategies over time and examine their historical performance.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Conditions Worsen to 8-Month Low
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for March. The general business activity index came in at -16.3, its lowest level since July. This marks an 8 point decline from the previous month and the second straight monthly decline.
Chicago PMI Hits Highest Level Since November 2023
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) rose for a third straight month in March, reaching its highest level since November 2023. The index increased to 47.6 from 45.5 in February, surpassing the 45.5forecast. The latest reading marks the 16th consecutive month the index has contracted.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.5% in February
With the release of February's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.83% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.50% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 3.63% nominal and 1.06% real.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.1% in February
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in February and is up 3.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.1% month-over-month and up 1.1% year-over-year.
Core PCE Inflation Rises 2.8% in February, Higher Than Expected
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report showed inflation remained elevated at the start of 2025. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 2.8% year-over-year in February and 0.4% from December. Both readings were higher than expected.
Ian Bremmer on Geopolitical Market Risk at Exchange
Investing requires more than just understanding global markets. Geopolitical risk matters, from China to Russia to Europe and more.
An Inside Look at the Q4 2024 GDP Third Estimate
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q4 GDP second estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.
GDP Per Capita: Q4 2024 Third Estimate
The third estimate for Q4 GDP came in at 2.45%, a deceleration from 3.07% for the Q3 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.82%, a slowdown from 2.22% for the Q3 headline number.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing: Activity Decreased Modestly in March
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity decreased modestly in March, with the composite index at -2. This is slightly above February's -5 reading and is tied for the highest reading since August 2023. Future expectations stayed positive, though they dipped from 14 in February to 10 in March.
Pending Home Sales Rebound 2.0% in February
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index increased more than expected in February, rebounding from the previous month's record low. The index came in at 72.0, a 2.0% rise from the previous month but a 3.6% drop from one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to rise 0.9% month-over-month.
Chat App Discord Is Working With Goldman, JPMorgan on Planned IPO
Discord Inc., a social communications platform popular with video-game players and programmers, is working with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. on an initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter.
A World Under Construction
The global economy is undergoing an unprecedented wave of industrial and infrastructure expansion, driving relentless demand for commodities across energy, metals and agriculture.
The AI Boom vs. the Dot-Com Bubble: Have We Seen This Movie Before?
The parallels between the AI narrative driving the current market and the dot-com bubble of a quarter century ago raise important concerns for investors.
Consumer Confidence Sinks to 4-Year Low in March
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® sank to its lowest level in over four years in March. The index fell to 92.9 this month from February's upwardly revised 100.1, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak since 2012
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: 4.1% Annual Gain in January
Home prices continued to trend upwards in December as the benchmark national index rose for a 24th consecutive month to a 19th straight record high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.6% increase MoM, and a 4.1% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.3% and YoY fell to -0.5%.
FHFA House Price Index Up 0.2% in January
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 436.5 in January. U.S. house prices were up 0.2% from the previous month, as expected, and up 4.8% from one year ago. This marks the 29th consecutive monthly increase for the index.
US Tech Rout Fuels Wild Bets From Korean Retail Investors
The sense of gloom on Wall Street is putting pressure on some of the most committed backers of American exceptionalism: South Korea’s risk-seeking retail investors.
Economic Headwinds Chill M&A Deals
With only eight trading days left in the first quarter, M&A announcements are set to come in at their lowest level since Q2 2020.
Existing Home Sales Rebound 4.2% in February
Existing home sales rebounded in February with their largest monthly increase in a year. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales rose 4.2% from January, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million units in February.
The Federal Reserve Is Driving Blind
On the predictable side, the Fed kept policy rates in a range of 4.25%-4.5%, and the rate-setting committee pledged to slow the pace at which it’s allowing securities to roll off its balance sheet.
Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: March 19, 2025
The Federal Reserve concluded its second meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
How To Survive Falling Markets
One of the biggest challenges investors face today is navigating the most concentrated U.S. stock market in history, where the largest stocks represent a record share of total market value.
Household Net Worth Q4 2024: The "Real" Story
As of Q4 2024, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 93% since the 2009 trough.
All Eyes on the Consumer: Is the Economic Engine Sputtering?
As the consumer goes, so goes the U.S. economy. Consumers make up roughly 70 percent of U.S. GDP.
Fed’s Bowman Says Economy’s Neutral Rate Higher Since Covid
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said the neutral level for the central bank’s policy rate had likely risen since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Gimme Credit
Ever since interest rates got up off the floor in 2022, there’s been increased interest in credit, and that’s why I’m devoting this memo to it. It’ll come a little closer than usual to “talking my book,” but I think the subject justifies that.
Bernanke Says Recent Price Surge May Impact Inflation Control
The world’s recent experience of faster inflation may make it harder for central banks to control prices in future, former US Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke said.
Why Ultra-Wealthy Investors Can – and Should – Invest Like an Institution
Ultra-wealthy investors have unique needs and goals. While a typical high net worth client is focused on the next dozen years, these more deep-pocketed clients – like their institutional counterparts – have a much longer time horizon.
Rates Still a Risk for Stocks
Russ Koesterich discusses the risk of higher interest rates and the potential impact (both positive and negative) such a move could have on markets.
Which Came First: Inflation or the Egg?
Eggs add to perceptions of high inflation.
Fixed Income: Taking Risk in Moderation
Should you avoid lower-rated, riskier investments like high-yield corporate bonds or bank loans? Not necessarily, but you should understand the risks.
American 'Economic Exceptionalism' Isn't Dead: How the US Is 'Built Different'
The U.S. economy remains structurally productive. American Economic Exceptionalism is powered by innovation and labor flexibility.
BP Has a Final Chance to Return to Big Payouts
For the last five years, BP Plc has put ideology ahead of profitability. This week, its board of directors has a final chance to change direction. If it doesn’t, an investor revolt will follow, and many executives could be out of a job by summer.
Investing for Security in Unstable Times: Energy and Supply Chains
Efforts to secure supply chains and energy sources are creating powerful and enduring themes for equity investors—even in these turbulent times.
Trump Confusion Syndrome
Trump Confusion Syndrome, or TCS, is distinct from Trump Derangement Syndrome in which afflicted people feel outrage about everything the president says or does. TCS isn’t about agreeing or disagreeing. It’s mostly about understanding. And then when something still seems wrong, feeling free to say it out loud.
Why It May Be Time to Lean Into Securitized Assets
Building a bond portfolio these days isn’t easy. Interest rates have been volatile. Credit spreads are tight. And sweeping change in US fiscal, trade, and regulatory policy is underway. We think securitized assets deserve a closer look.
Beyond China
We are observing a significant shift in global supply chains away from China, presenting a substantial investment opportunity. What are the reasons behind this shift?
Politics and Investing
While domestic politics can certainly influence asset prices, it is just one of many variables, and our research has shown it to be an inaccurate indicator of future returns. We caution investors against making changes to their portfolios based on political developments.
Home Ownership Rate: 65.7% in Q4 2024
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.
Better Together: Why Cities Are Man’s Greatest Invention and How We Could Fix them
The urbanist and economist Edward Glaeser called cities “man’s greatest invention,” but cities have hit a bit of a rough patch lately. Why are cities so important to human life? What has gone wrong with them? And what can we do to make urban life better?
Trailing the S&P 500, Healthcare Stocks Look Deeply Undervalued
In the report, Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons explain the reasons for healthcare’s recent underperformance and why they believe valuations are now disconnected from the sector’s long-term prospects.
From Underperformance to Opportunity: Biotech's Case for 2025
Despite continued underperformance in 2024, the biotech sector enters 2025 with a brighter outlook driven by groundbreaking innovations like mRNA cancer vaccines and CRISPR-based therapies.
Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation?
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
The Mother of All Bubbles?
Are U.S. stocks in a massive valuation bubble? We don’t think so. Will U.S. stocks outperform their European and Asian counterparts over the next 10 years? Maybe.
Crucial Questions
The Second Trump Era has begun. If you are confident about what it will bring (either good or bad), I would like to gently suggest you reconsider. None of us should be sure what is coming.
Can European Stocks Overcome Fallout From “America First” Agenda?
European equity markets may look vulnerable to fallout from new US policies. But some companies offer investors reasons to cheer.
Netflix Shares Soar to Record After Huge Gain in Subscribers
Netflix Inc. shares soared to a record high on Wednesday after the streaming giant reported its biggest quarterly subscriber gain in history, buoyed by its first major live sporting events and the return of Squid Game.
2025 Municipal Bond Sector Outlook: Stability and Resiliency
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.