Investment banks and private equity firms are fighting over the kids again.
Gold plays a distinct role in the global monetary system. Simply put, it’s perceived as money, and its function as a store of value makes it arguably the world’s most popular hedge against inflation.
Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities Lucas Klein and Head of Americas Equities Marc Pinto argue that progress on the trade impasse, further monetary easing, pro-growth reforms, and an innovation revolution should all prove supportive to equities over the mid term once the market moves past near-term volatility.
Financial markets have been experiencing some of their wildest trading days in history this year. Stock and bond prices have been moving in unison—an alarming scenario for investors and their advisors. With increased volatility, long-term investors might benefit from additional exposure to alternative strategies within their portfolio allocations.
If I told someone with even a little investing experience that I own an asset that pays like stocks but is stable like bonds, they would probably think I was a huckster or a fool. Yet many of the most sophisticated investors claim to own such a thing.
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, boosted its annual revenue target for 2030 and set its first-ever firmwide target for private-markets fundraising at $400 billion by then.
The first half of 2025 has been driven by headlines that have caused volatility in both the stock and bond markets. While tariff negotiations have commanded the most attention, we are now pivoting to the federal budget deficit, which feels like a perpetual headline over the last 15 years.
Integrating volatile and illiquid assets into the ETF structure is something to be avoided, Doubleline CEO and CIO Gundlach said.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for May puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.35%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for a 24th straight month. Additionally, for a 4th consecutive month, inflation sits below the 10-year moving average which is at 2.99%.
This series has been updated to include the May release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,538, down 5.8% from over 50 years ago.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
US stocks oscillated between small gains and losses on Wednesday, as traders look past an upbeat report on cooling consumer prices and assess the outlook for global trade.
While the immediate path for tariffs may drift lower, the U.S. legislative branch is hammering out a tax and spending bill that seems to favor tax cuts over lower spending, reviving worries over the U.S. budget deficit and a growing debt burden that cannot be ignored.
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
If we lived in a world where mobile signals were visible, the sky would shimmer like a storm—layers of frequencies rolling over rooftops, crossing oceans and saturating valleys.
The U.S. economy and stock market face a confluence of challenges in the second half of the year, keeping the bar relatively (but not restrictively) high for outperformance.
Robotics was one of the earliest examples of a disruptive technology. It enjoyed some time in the investment community limelight. But it was rapidly usurped by other innovative technologies, including AI.
Diversification of portfolios using international equities can reduce volatility and enhance risk-adjusted returns, especially given recent geopolitical shifts that decrease correlations between U.S. and international markets. Despite some investor skepticism, and as we discuss below, the benefits of international diversification can be significant and should be considered in investment strategies.
Gas prices dropped for a third straight week this week. As of June 9th, the price of regular gas was down 2 cents while the price of premium gas was down 3 cents from the previous week.
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of May, the labor force participation rate is at 62.4%, down from 62.6% the previous month.
A college degree may be a milestone that represents one possible career path. But it’s not your only route toward a future that is both financially sound and deeply fulfilling.
Small-cap stocks tend to offer greater growth potential than their large-cap peers, but those returns have yet to materialize consistently. What will it take to turn the tide?
Stablecoins are a special flavor of cryptocurrency. Unlike Bitcoin or countless wildly traded memecoins, whose values rise and fall based on market moods, the most popular versions of these digital tokens are supposed to always be worth $1 each.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The recovery was in large part due to owners expecting better business conditions and higher sales volumes.
The Fear Trade is what most Western investors are familiar with. It’s the flight to safety during times of uncertainty, driven by concerns over inflation, interest rates, geopolitical risk and more.
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Markets may be fretting over Federal Reserve policy and economic soft landings, but a handful of momentum ETFs have quietly been stealing the show. Across the array of factor funds, momentum has performed best this year.
As we head into the second half of the year, US markets seem to be turning around, with economic data that is still coming in mixed. The major US indices were up the first three days of last week, dipping on Thursday after weaker back-to-back readings of the US labor market.
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through June 9, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 23.23%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 17.73% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.93%.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 139,000.
May's employment report showed that 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours)5
Investors nearing or in retirement who are currently defaulted into TDFs need to stop defaulting and move to safety now.
As small business clients look toward ambitious growth, advisors have the chance to offer something foundational: a term life insurance strategy that turns ambitions into a legacy.
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in May.
US stocks flipped between small gains and losses on Monday as investors awaited the outcome of crucial trade talks between Washington and Beijing in London.
Retail traders using sophisticated quantitative strategies are starting to have a surprising and noticeable impact on financial prices.
Today we’ll continue our SIC highlight series featuring a relatively new face who is now indispensable, plus some new ones who were crowd favorites.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) lost its chance to lower interest rates further during the first half of the year, when inflation came down to close to its 2.0% target with very limited risk that its decision would have triggered higher inflation.
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 6, 2025 at 4.51%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.04% and the 30-year note ended at 4.97%.
The Buffett Indicator, made popular by Warren Buffett, assesses the overall value of the stock market relative to the economy. This video provides the May 2025 update on Buffett Valuation Indicator.
Abstract SMID-cap investing offers stronger performance and lower volatility than small-caps alone. By using the Russell 2500 index, investors can retain top performers longer, reduce turnover, and enhance portfolio resilience and flexibility.
Privacore Capital, an affiliate of Janus Henderson and an open-architecture solutions provider for alternative investment products tailored to the private wealth market, and Partners Capital Investment Group, a global Investment Office, today announced the launch of the Privacore PCAAM Alternative Growth Fund (“AltsGrow”).
Wall Street is cranking up the bond machine as US homeowners — finding that buying a new house is out of reach since mortgage rates started climbing in 2022 – are instead getting home equity loans and sprucing up their current properties.
Bond traders priced in an earlier start to expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts on fresh clues the US job market is losing momentum.
Since 2019 and the establishment of the ETF Rule, traditional active managers, armed with decades of expertise, have flocked to ETFs.
The U.S. trade deficit shrank to its lowest level since September 2023 as exports increased and imports declined. In April, the trade deficit fell 55.5% to -$61.6B. This marks the largest monthly decline since 1992.
In the last three months tariff news has whipped financial markets around remarkably in response to President Trump’s ever changing tariff policies. The most pronounced reactions were concentrated in the US stock market.
Passive capitalization-weighted index funds now surpass active management in aggregate investor allocations.
On the trade front, investor uncertainty eased for a short time as President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs seemed to lose traction. Several key developments contributed, including a 90-day tariff pause with China, the signing of a US-UK trade agreement and progress on negotiations with other partners, including Europe.
The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in August 1978. Almost 50 years later, it is down 36.0% from that peak.
The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 53.7, above the 52.3 forecast. The reading marks the 28th consecutive month of expansion and was a noticeable pickup from April's 17-month low.
America’s holiday from history is over: Debt matters again. It is not just that the national debt is so big it cannot be ignored.
Global equities hit a record high for the first time since February, as signs of a resilient US economy overshadowed uncertainty around trade negotiations.
U.S.-Europe negotiations involve more than just tariffs.
Market leadership is shifting and the once-dominant Magnificent 7 may no longer be so magnificent. Our latest report reveals why broader opportunities are emerging across sectors and regions, with quality, value, and growth converging in unexpected places.
The economic narrative took a decisive turn last week. A stunning collapse in the trade deficit suggests we could be looking at near 4% GDP growth in the second quarter—a massive upward revision from the consensus of 2%.
The muted IPO market which has become commonplace in the last few years continued in that fashion through the first five months of 2025. However, the last few weeks has brought a renewed focus to dealmaking after a couple of highly anticipated IPOs began trading, and a cryptocurrency unicorn filed to IPO.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the May 2025 close.
Constellation Energy Corp. agreed to sell power from an Illinois nuclear plant to Meta Platforms Inc. as artificial intelligence sends power demand soaring.
f you are wondering why the S&P 500 Index has held up so well in the past two months, look no further than the technology and communications sectors, which collectively account for nearly half of the index by weighting.
Treasury floating rate notes and ETFs like the WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury Fund (USFR) are often seen as beneficial tools to fixed income investors when yields on U.S. government debt are rising.
Amid a fair amount of market tumult, we wrote two months ago that the best course of action was to stay invested in roughly the same portfolios that we’ve had throughout, and let the market stabilize.
Most clients are relatively conservative when it comes to determining how much they can afford to spend in retirement. All things being equal, clients would generally rather die with too much money than too little.
This article presents a different perspective on the question of why bond yields are rising. I focus on the difference between narratives and fundamentals.
Similar to the equity market’s response to the recently announced tariffs, the bond market responded with a widening of credit spreads. These spreads represent the difference in yield between a U.S. Treasury bond and other bonds of the same maturity but different credit quality.
As discussions about reshoring continue to dominate economic policy debates, VettaFi hosted a timely webcast with Dr. Daniela Rus, director of MIT’s Computer Science and AI Lab (CSAIL).
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. As of May 31, 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.44%.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 48.5 in May, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a third straight month. The latest reading was below the forecast of 49.3.
U.S. manufacturing growth picked up in May, but tariffs and trade policy continued to dominate the sector's landscape. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fifth straight month in May at 52.0. The latest reading was lower than the 52.3 forecast.
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of May 23rd, the index was at 7.708, down 1.292 from the previous week, with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
It doesn’t take much to understand that Ray Dalio, a hedge fund titan, is like every other human being and is prone to error. I will not dismiss Dalio entirely, as his track record of managing money at Bridgewater is nothing to be scoffed at.
Today I’m going to highlight some speakers who added an equity market perspective to their big-picture views. Getting both right would be much easier if more investors behaved rationally. Alas, they don’t, which is why stock prices do incomprehensible things. Fortunately, you can succeed without catching every twist and turn.
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for April showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.5%. The March core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 2.8%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
With current home sales at historical lows and mortgage rates hovering between 6% and 7%, homeowners who are locked into previously secured low-interest mortgages remain hesitant to sell. In fact, existing home sales have reached depressed levels unseen in three to four decades.
Valid until the market close on June 30, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell for a second straight month to its lowest level in four months. The index sank to 40.5 this month from 44.6 in April, falling short of the 45.1 forecast. The latest reading marks the 18th consecutive month the index has contracted.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in April and is up 4.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and up 2.1% year-over-year.
With the release of April's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.80% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.70% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 4.47% nominal and 2.27% real.
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 2.5% year-over-year in April, marking the lowest level for the index in over four years. This was consistent with the forecast and a slowdown from 2.7% in March. On a monthly basis, the core index was up 0.1%, as expected.
Emerging markets debt held its ground in the first quarter, but staying ahead means staying selective. We’re reassessing positioning across high-, low-, and frontier-beta currencies and rates as trade tensions and U.S. policy inject fresh uncertainty.
The "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax-and-spending plan was passed by the House of Representatives and now moves on to the Senate. Here's what's in it.
The second estimate for Q1 GDP came in at -0.24%, a deceleration from 2.45% for the Q4 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at -0.74%, a slowdown from 1.82% for the Q4 headline number.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 2025 GDP second estimate, two of the four components made positive contributions.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index fell more than expected in April, experiencing its largest monthly decrease since June 2022. The index came in at 71.3, the third lowest reading in the series' history.
The long-term bearish case for the dollar remained intact after a court ruled that the vast majority of President Donald Trump’s global trade tariffs are illegal, amplifying uncertainty over the US economic outlook.
Two of Wall Street’s top investment banks cautioned that the impact of a court ruling striking down many of President Donald Trump’s tariff measures may prove limited, given that the administration has other avenues to impose import duties.
Small Cap
JPMorgan Can Retain Junior Bankers With Cash, Not Threats
Investment banks and private equity firms are fighting over the kids again.
Gold has Glittered Amidst Storming Markets
Gold plays a distinct role in the global monetary system. Simply put, it’s perceived as money, and its function as a store of value makes it arguably the world’s most popular hedge against inflation.
Equities Outlook: Era of Rapid Change Creates Opportunities
Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities Lucas Klein and Head of Americas Equities Marc Pinto argue that progress on the trade impasse, further monetary easing, pro-growth reforms, and an innovation revolution should all prove supportive to equities over the mid term once the market moves past near-term volatility.
Should Investors Consider Options-Based Strategies to Help Manage Portfolio Risk?
Financial markets have been experiencing some of their wildest trading days in history this year. Stock and bond prices have been moving in unison—an alarming scenario for investors and their advisors. With increased volatility, long-term investors might benefit from additional exposure to alternative strategies within their portfolio allocations.
Harvard and Yale Will Finally Lift the Veil on Private Assets
If I told someone with even a little investing experience that I own an asset that pays like stocks but is stable like bonds, they would probably think I was a huckster or a fool. Yet many of the most sophisticated investors claim to own such a thing.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Cooler Than Expected in May
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
BlackRock Targets $400 Billion Private-Market Haul by 2030
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, boosted its annual revenue target for 2030 and set its first-ever firmwide target for private-markets fundraising at $400 billion by then.
Deficit Pressures Treasuries… But No Crisis: US Treasury Market Is ‘Too Big to Fail’
The first half of 2025 has been driven by headlines that have caused volatility in both the stock and bond markets. While tariff negotiations have commanded the most attention, we are now pivoting to the federal budget deficit, which feels like a perpetual headline over the last 15 years.
Gundlach: Illiquid Assets Don’t Belong in Liquid Vehicles
Integrating volatile and illiquid assets into the ETF structure is something to be avoided, Doubleline CEO and CIO Gundlach said.
Inflation Since 1872: A Long-Term Look at the CPI
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for May puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.35%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for a 24th straight month. Additionally, for a 4th consecutive month, inflation sits below the 10-year moving average which is at 2.99%.
Real Middle Class Wages as of May 2025
This series has been updated to include the May release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,538, down 5.8% from over 50 years ago.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: May 2025
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Rises to 2.4% in May, Lower Than Expected
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
US Stocks Waffle as Traders Weigh US-China Trade Progress
US stocks oscillated between small gains and losses on Wednesday, as traders look past an upbeat report on cooling consumer prices and assess the outlook for global trade.
A Focus on Fundamentals
While the immediate path for tariffs may drift lower, the U.S. legislative branch is hammering out a tax and spending bill that seems to favor tax cuts over lower spending, reviving worries over the U.S. budget deficit and a growing debt burden that cannot be ignored.
What's the 10-Year Outlook for Major Asset Classes?
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
The Infrastructure That Lets the Future Happen
If we lived in a world where mobile signals were visible, the sky would shimmer like a storm—layers of frequencies rolling over rooftops, crossing oceans and saturating valleys.
2025 Mid-Year Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy
The U.S. economy and stock market face a confluence of challenges in the second half of the year, keeping the bar relatively (but not restrictively) high for outperformance.
Intersection of Robotics & AI: Crucial Theme for Tech Sector
Robotics was one of the earliest examples of a disruptive technology. It enjoyed some time in the investment community limelight. But it was rapidly usurped by other innovative technologies, including AI.
Going Abroad for a Free Lunch
Diversification of portfolios using international equities can reduce volatility and enhance risk-adjusted returns, especially given recent geopolitical shifts that decrease correlations between U.S. and international markets. Despite some investor skepticism, and as we discuss below, the benefits of international diversification can be significant and should be considered in investment strategies.
Gas Prices Drop for Third Straight Week
Gas prices dropped for a third straight week this week. As of June 9th, the price of regular gas was down 2 cents while the price of premium gas was down 3 cents from the previous week.
Long-Term Employment Trends by Age and Gender: May 2025
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of May, the labor force participation rate is at 62.4%, down from 62.6% the previous month.
To Graduates: Skilled Trades Can Be a Practical Path to Success
A college degree may be a milestone that represents one possible career path. But it’s not your only route toward a future that is both financially sound and deeply fulfilling.
What's Holding Back Small Caps?
Small-cap stocks tend to offer greater growth potential than their large-cap peers, but those returns have yet to materialize consistently. What will it take to turn the tide?
Stablecoins Bring Crypto to the Mainstream. What Could Go Wrong?
Stablecoins are a special flavor of cryptocurrency. Unlike Bitcoin or countless wildly traded memecoins, whose values rise and fall based on market moods, the most popular versions of these digital tokens are supposed to always be worth $1 each.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Recovered Slightly in May
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The recovery was in large part due to owners expecting better business conditions and higher sales volumes.
Meet the “Hermès of Gold” the Chinese Can’t Get Enough Of
The Fear Trade is what most Western investors are familiar with. It’s the flight to safety during times of uncertainty, driven by concerns over inflation, interest rates, geopolitical risk and more.
Mid-Year Outlook: International Stocks and Economy
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Momentum ETFs Regaining Mojo
Markets may be fretting over Federal Reserve policy and economic soft landings, but a handful of momentum ETFs have quietly been stealing the show. Across the array of factor funds, momentum has performed best this year.
Reverse Splits Start to Moderate After Hitting a Record High in Q1 2025
As we head into the second half of the year, US markets seem to be turning around, with economic data that is still coming in mixed. The major US indices were up the first three days of last week, dipping on Thursday after weaker back-to-back readings of the US labor market.
World Markets Watchlist: June 9, 2025
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through June 9, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 23.23%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 17.73% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.93%.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: May 2025
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 139,000.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: May 2025
May's employment report showed that 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours)5
401(k) Podcast Warns Baby Boomers in Target Date Funds to Get Out
Investors nearing or in retirement who are currently defaulted into TDFs need to stop defaulting and move to safety now.
Employee of the Month: Term Life Insurance
As small business clients look toward ambitious growth, advisors have the chance to offer something foundational: a term life insurance strategy that turns ambitions into a legacy.
Multiple Jobholders Account for 5.2% of Workers in May 2025
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in May.
US Stocks Fluctuate as US-China Trade Talks Kick Off in London
US stocks flipped between small gains and losses on Monday as investors awaited the outcome of crucial trade talks between Washington and Beijing in London.
Retail Quants May Be the Next Stabilizing Force for Markets
Retail traders using sophisticated quantitative strategies are starting to have a surprising and noticeable impact on financial prices.
Good News and Creative Destruction
Today we’ll continue our SIC highlight series featuring a relatively new face who is now indispensable, plus some new ones who were crowd favorites.
Lost Opportunity, Closed Window and Measurement Issues
The Federal Reserve (Fed) lost its chance to lower interest rates further during the first half of the year, when inflation came down to close to its 2.0% target with very limited risk that its decision would have triggered higher inflation.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: June 6, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 6, 2025 at 4.51%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.04% and the 30-year note ended at 4.97%.
Buffett Valuation Indicator: May 2025
The Buffett Indicator, made popular by Warren Buffett, assesses the overall value of the stock market relative to the economy. This video provides the May 2025 update on Buffett Valuation Indicator.
Let Your Winners Run: Why SMID-Cap Investing May Be the All-Star Strategy Your Portfolio Needs
Abstract SMID-cap investing offers stronger performance and lower volatility than small-caps alone. By using the Russell 2500 index, investors can retain top performers longer, reduce turnover, and enhance portfolio resilience and flexibility.
Privacore Capital and Partners Capital Investment Group Launch Alternative Growth Registered Fund (“AltsGrow”)
Privacore Capital, an affiliate of Janus Henderson and an open-architecture solutions provider for alternative investment products tailored to the private wealth market, and Partners Capital Investment Group, a global Investment Office, today announced the launch of the Privacore PCAAM Alternative Growth Fund (“AltsGrow”).
Home Remodeling Bond Sales Surge as Americans Avoid Moving
Wall Street is cranking up the bond machine as US homeowners — finding that buying a new house is out of reach since mortgage rates started climbing in 2022 – are instead getting home equity loans and sprucing up their current properties.
Traders Embrace September Fed Rate Cut Amid Job Market Weakness
Bond traders priced in an earlier start to expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts on fresh clues the US job market is losing momentum.
Active EM ETF Offers Access to a Time-Tested Strategy
Since 2019 and the establishment of the ETF Rule, traditional active managers, armed with decades of expertise, have flocked to ETFs.
Trade Deficit Shrinks to Smallest Level Since September 2023
The U.S. trade deficit shrank to its lowest level since September 2023 as exports increased and imports declined. In April, the trade deficit fell 55.5% to -$61.6B. This marks the largest monthly decline since 1992.
From Tariff Angst to Optimism
In the last three months tariff news has whipped financial markets around remarkably in response to President Trump’s ever changing tariff policies. The most pronounced reactions were concentrated in the US stock market.
2025 Mid-Year Outlook: Global Stocks and Economy
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Passive Aggressive: The Increasing Risks of Passive Dominance
Passive capitalization-weighted index funds now surpass active management in aggregate investor allocations.
Political Noise Continued to Dominate Headlines in May
On the trade front, investor uncertainty eased for a short time as President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs seemed to lose traction. Several key developments contributed, including a 90-day tariff pause with China, the signing of a US-UK trade agreement and progress on negotiations with other partners, including Europe.
Vehicle Sales: May 2025
The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in August 1978. Almost 50 years later, it is down 36.0% from that peak.
S&P Global Services PMI: Growth Strengthens in May
The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 53.7, above the 52.3 forecast. The reading marks the 28th consecutive month of expansion and was a noticeable pickup from April's 17-month low.
Both Parties Need to Face Fiscal Reality
America’s holiday from history is over: Debt matters again. It is not just that the national debt is so big it cannot be ignored.
Global Stocks Hit Record as Economic Bets Outweigh Trade Jitters
Global equities hit a record high for the first time since February, as signs of a resilient US economy overshadowed uncertainty around trade negotiations.
Transatlantic Tussle
U.S.-Europe negotiations involve more than just tariffs.
The Mag 7 Becomes the Mid 7
Market leadership is shifting and the once-dominant Magnificent 7 may no longer be so magnificent. Our latest report reveals why broader opportunities are emerging across sectors and regions, with quality, value, and growth converging in unexpected places.
Economic Data Surprises, While China Tensions Resurface
The economic narrative took a decisive turn last week. A stunning collapse in the trade deficit suggests we could be looking at near 4% GDP growth in the second quarter—a massive upward revision from the consensus of 2%.
IPO Filings Remain Low in Q2
The muted IPO market which has become commonplace in the last few years continued in that fashion through the first five months of 2025. However, the last few weeks has brought a renewed focus to dealmaking after a couple of highly anticipated IPOs began trading, and a cryptocurrency unicorn filed to IPO.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since 2000 Highs as of May 2025
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the May 2025 close.
Meta to Buy Nuclear Power From Constellation as AI Demand Soars
Constellation Energy Corp. agreed to sell power from an Illinois nuclear plant to Meta Platforms Inc. as artificial intelligence sends power demand soaring.
Why the S&P 500 Is Cruising Through Policy Upheaval
f you are wondering why the S&P 500 Index has held up so well in the past two months, look no further than the technology and communications sectors, which collectively account for nearly half of the index by weighting.
Floating Rate Notes Are Appealing Fixed Income Ideas
Treasury floating rate notes and ETFs like the WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury Fund (USFR) are often seen as beneficial tools to fixed income investors when yields on U.S. government debt are rising.
QuantStreet May 2025 Letter: Negotiations
Amid a fair amount of market tumult, we wrote two months ago that the best course of action was to stay invested in roughly the same portfolios that we’ve had throughout, and let the market stabilize.
Use the Funded Status Metric & A ‘Surplus Bucket’ to Increase Spending in Retirement
Most clients are relatively conservative when it comes to determining how much they can afford to spend in retirement. All things being equal, clients would generally rather die with too much money than too little.
Narratives vs. Fundamentals: Battle in the Bond Market
This article presents a different perspective on the question of why bond yields are rising. I focus on the difference between narratives and fundamentals.
Credit Markets React to Tariffs
Similar to the equity market’s response to the recently announced tariffs, the bond market responded with a widening of credit spreads. These spreads represent the difference in yield between a U.S. Treasury bond and other bonds of the same maturity but different credit quality.
AI, Robotics & the Future of U.S. Manufacturing
As discussions about reshoring continue to dominate economic policy debates, VettaFi hosted a timely webcast with Dr. Daniela Rus, director of MIT’s Computer Science and AI Lab (CSAIL).
10-Year Treasury Yield Long-Term Perspective: May 2025
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. As of May 31, 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.44%.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: Slipped Further into Contraction in May
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 48.5 in May, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a third straight month. The latest reading was below the forecast of 49.3.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Growth Picked Up in May
U.S. manufacturing growth picked up in May, but tariffs and trade policy continued to dominate the sector's landscape. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fifth straight month in May at 52.0. The latest reading was lower than the 52.3 forecast.
RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of May 23rd, the index was at 7.708, down 1.292 from the previous week, with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
Ray Dalio Is Predicting A Financial Crisis…Again.
It doesn’t take much to understand that Ray Dalio, a hedge fund titan, is like every other human being and is prone to error. I will not dismiss Dalio entirely, as his track record of managing money at Bridgewater is nothing to be scoffed at.
Bullish Highlights
Today I’m going to highlight some speakers who added an equity market perspective to their big-picture views. Getting both right would be much easier if more investors behaved rationally. Alas, they don’t, which is why stock prices do incomprehensible things. Fortunately, you can succeed without catching every twist and turn.
Two Measures of Inflation: April 2025
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for April showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.5%. The March core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 2.8%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Court Delivers Good News on Tariffs, But…
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
The Housing Market’s Next Move
With current home sales at historical lows and mortgage rates hovering between 6% and 7%, homeowners who are locked into previously secured low-interest mortgages remain hesitant to sell. In fact, existing home sales have reached depressed levels unseen in three to four decades.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: May 2025
Valid until the market close on June 30, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Chicago PMI Sinks to 4-Month Low
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell for a second straight month to its lowest level in four months. The index sank to 40.5 this month from 44.6 in April, falling short of the 45.1 forecast. The latest reading marks the 18th consecutive month the index has contracted.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.3% in April
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in April and is up 4.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and up 2.1% year-over-year.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.7% in April
With the release of April's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.80% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.70% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 4.47% nominal and 2.27% real.
Core PCE Inflation Rises 2.5% in April, Lowest Level Since 2021
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 2.5% year-over-year in April, marking the lowest level for the index in over four years. This was consistent with the forecast and a slowdown from 2.7% in March. On a monthly basis, the core index was up 0.1%, as expected.
Risk Rethought: Local Currency in a Shifting World
Emerging markets debt held its ground in the first quarter, but staying ahead means staying selective. We’re reassessing positioning across high-, low-, and frontier-beta currencies and rates as trade tensions and U.S. policy inject fresh uncertainty.
Tax Bill Moves on to the Senate—What's Next?
The "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax-and-spending plan was passed by the House of Representatives and now moves on to the Senate. Here's what's in it.
GDP Per Capita: Q1 2025 Second Estimate
The second estimate for Q1 GDP came in at -0.24%, a deceleration from 2.45% for the Q4 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at -0.74%, a slowdown from 1.82% for the Q4 headline number.
An Inside Look at the Q1 2025 GDP Second Estimate
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 2025 GDP second estimate, two of the four components made positive contributions.
Pending Home Sales Sink 6.3% in April
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index fell more than expected in April, experiencing its largest monthly decrease since June 2022. The index came in at 71.3, the third lowest reading in the series' history.
Dollar Bounce Is Short-Lived After Trump Tariffs Move Into Limbo
The long-term bearish case for the dollar remained intact after a court ruled that the vast majority of President Donald Trump’s global trade tariffs are illegal, amplifying uncertainty over the US economic outlook.
Goldman, Morgan Stanley Say Trump Can Deploy Other Tariff Tools
Two of Wall Street’s top investment banks cautioned that the impact of a court ruling striking down many of President Donald Trump’s tariff measures may prove limited, given that the administration has other avenues to impose import duties.