Donald Trump’s return to the White House will likely protect US stocks from a big selloff, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, as investors focus on his protectionist agenda and proposals for lower corporate taxes.
As we close the chapter on Biden’s presidency, we take a moment to reflect on his legacy.
Strong U.S. economic data has spurred a strong rise in Treasury yields but a tepid response in the stock market. Uncertainty likely will continue in coming months.
Surging long-term interest rates and stubborn inflation are inflaming divisions among congressional Republicans over paying for the sweeping tax cuts Donald Trump promised, complicating the path to passage with the party’s already tenuous majority.
In response to the 2008 stock market and real estate crash, the Federal Reserve stimulated the economy by reducing interest rates to (almost) zero under its zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP). It “printed money” that amazingly did not bring serious inflation, yet.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits ticked down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.483 million in December. This marks a 0.7% decrease from November and a 3.1% decline compared to one year ago.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts jumped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.499 million in December, the highest level in ten months. This marks a 15.8% increase from November and a 4.4% decline compared to one year ago.
With all eyes focused on the White House, investors must decide what the incoming President’s policies will mean for markets and how to position accordingly. Ahead of the inauguration, we asked our portfolio managers what they think should be front of mind.
Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.
While stocks can move higher, the bond market will continue to matter. Higher rates suggest that equity leadership may continue to reside in companies that are relatively rate insensitive.
For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, the VettaFi writers debate the case for using sector ETFs to make bets on the new market regime.
In December, nominal home values increased for a 21st straight months to a new all-time high. However, once we adjust for inflation, "real" home values declined for an 8th consecutive month to their lowest level since June 2021.
Builder confidence inched up in January to its highest level in 9 months on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 47 this month, up one point from December. The latest reading came was above the forecast of 45.
The latest updates on the labor market and consumer prices show President-elect Donald Trump inherits an economy where inflation is poised to return to the Federal Reserve’s target later this year.
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
The US housing market faces a delicate balancing act in 2025, influenced by effects of the pandemic and persistently high mortgage rates.
On top of the human tragedy they’re still inflicting, the Los Angeles wildfires are exposing a gap between what people thought their homes were worth and what they’ll actually get from insurance companies when those houses have been reduced to ash. Potentially thousands of homeowners are learning it won’t be nearly enough.
US government bonds surged as benign inflation data prompted traders to resume their bets on additional Federal Reserve interest rate cuts by July.
Direct indexing has been around for more than 30 years, yet many people still don’t know what it is or how it continues to grow and evolve.
US equities had a stellar 2024, with the S&P 500 up 25%, but the year ended on a softer note. The sharp rise in bond yields has caught the market's eye
The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.
Uncertainty with regard to interest rate policy warrants an active management strategy inherent in the Vanguard Short Duration Bond ETF.
Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.
Ten years ago, Research Affiliates launched the Asset Allocation Interactive online tool, making our CMEs freely available to the public. With one full cycle complete, we can see what has worked well and where we can improve.
Managing Director, Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills looks at how several of the top market-relevant Washington DC issues could play out in 2025.
The question asked of me most often recently: "Why are bond yields rising?" After verbally answering it plenty of times, it's time to put my answer in writing for everyone else to see.
If you’re going to remember one important fact about the housing market, it’s that with the brief exception of COVID, the US has consistently built too few homes almost every year since the housing bust got rough in 2007.
As we enter 2025, the financial markets are optimistic. That optimism is fueled by strong market performance over the last two years and analyst’s projections for continued growth. However, as “Curb Your Enthusiasm” often demonstrates, even the best-laid plans can unravel when overlooked details come to light. Here are five reasons why a more cautious approach to investing might be warranted in 2025.
The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.
Many people these days are on heightened alert for bubbles, and I’m often asked whether there’s a bubble surrounding the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the handful of stocks that have been leading it.
2024 certainly saw cap-weighted strategies outperform equally weighted alternatives, but that could very well change this year.
Stock investors have been watching the runup in US Treasury yields with considerable alarm of late.
After another resilient year for the US economy, we look ahead to the new year.
As we enter 2025, there has been a lot of conjecture about a return to the 5% threshold.
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes break down the factors likely to impact economic growth, inflation and interest rates.
U.S. equities closed 2024 on top and U.S. growth took back leadership from U.S. value.
US equities were up notably in 2024, due to a strong economy, accelerating earnings growth, US election results, and AI/mega-cap strength.
Since dividend investing can be boiled down to a single strategy—generating income—you might assume we don’t need a toolbox full of tools. We know that’s not true.
Yields may trade in a wide range as markets work through issues in the new year. Navigating volatility may mean capturing higher nominal and real yields over the longer term.
While the market has largely moved past that year’s recession debate, it’s worth noting that the traditional definition that persisted for all our careers—two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth—did occur in the first half of 2022.
Two key components drive the shape of the yield curve: expectations for the short-term interest rate and expectations for the term premium.
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. Investors should expect more equity market volatility ahead.
US mortgage rates edged up to just shy of 7% at the turn of year and a gauge of home-purchase applications tumbled to the lowest level since February, adding to evidence of a struggling housing market.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its December services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 54.1, better than the forecast of 53.5. The latest reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the sixth straight month.
The December U.S. services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 56.8, the highest level since March 2022. The latest reading came in below the forecast of 58.5 but keeps the index in expansion territory for the 23rd straight month.
Stocks are coming off another banner year, but strength has bred a frothy sentiment environment, which continues to loom as a risk for likely coming volatility.
In a recent discussion on TheRealInvestmentShow, Bob Farrell and his 10 investment rules were discussed, which elicited several email questions asking, “Who is Bob Farrell, and where are these rules?”.
The most important issue regarding what lies ahead from an economic perspective is that the economy’s fundamentals remain solid with very few misalignments that could derail it, at least for now.
2024 was about as good as it gets in the equity markets – with the BGEP up 31% and the broader market as a whole posting double digit gains. Underneath the surface, we believe that there are three main drivers of the year’s solid returns. We discuss them below in our market review and outlook.
Stocks rallied in 2024, delivering a second consecutive year of gains exceeding 20%, as investors embraced cooling inflation, falling interest rates and the prospect of lower corporate taxes under a second Trump administration.
What happens in the US economy doesn’t always stay there, particularly when it comes to the UK.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the central bank’s communication will be part of its 2025 monetary policy review.
Continuing last year's trend, our 2025 outlook shows fixed income benefiting from high rates, while equities face a narrowing edge over risk-free investments.
After a strong November 2024, markets were generally down in December. The S&P 500 index was down 2.3%, while energy, small caps, value stocks, and REITs performed considerably worse.
Gain insights into 2025’s top tech trends and market opportunities, and what experienced investors should consider for smart tech investments.
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 49.4 in December from 49.7 in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of worsening conditions in the manufacturing sector. The latest reading was above the forecasted reading of 48.3.
December's market activity highlights the need for caution in the near term.
Fixed income is top of mind as investors look to a new interest rate regime. Sylvia Yeh dives into the outlook for 2025.
Valid until the market close on January 1, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Investors continue to enjoy the bull market but remain somewhat nervous about valuation. Policy uncertainty is higher than usual, in part because there are so many policy changes at the same time.
All portfolio managers practice a stock-picking discipline in which they make choices. Growth stock investors attempt to predict which companies will grow the most in the future and compare the growth they expect to what they have to pay to participate.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in October as the benchmark national index rose for the 21st consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% increase MoM, and a 3.6% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to -0.1% and YoY fell to -1.5%.
It’s now half a decade since anything in the US housing market could be considered normal. The pandemic boom was followed by a transaction bust, induced by the central bank, that did little to lower sky-high prices.
It’s that time of year again, when pundits are forecasting next year’s stock market performance. I believe investors are being gaslighted more than usual this year because the basic underlying assumptions are optimistic and unlikely.
One of the benefits of purchasing property as an investment is the tax benefits that can come with it – both while you own it and after you sell. Applying tax-efficient strategies will help you make the most out of your investment property.
We prefer equities over fixed income, in particular U.S. equities as the outlook for the U.S. economy is solid and promising.
Tokenization, or the process of creating digital representations of real-world assets on a blockchain, has become one of this year’s buzzwords in both conventional and crypto finance circles.
Annuities can provide a guaranteed lifetime income stream in retirement, no matter how long you live. They thrive under high interest rate environments and are currently offering the highest payouts seen in years.
America’s national debt would have horrified Ronald Reagan.
Today often kicks off the Santa Claus rally. Stocks rose and volatility is down sharply from recent peaks, but yields keep rising, which has hurt the non-tech part of the market.
The Federal Reserve’s recent meeting signaled a notable shift in its monetary policy approach.
For 2025, the financial markets will be entering a new chapter in the ever-evolving policy story. Indeed, not only will the U.S. economy be operating under a new political and attendant fiscal backdrop, but it will also be in the midst of a different monetary policy setting—rate cuts, not the after-effects of rate hikes.
We expect the playbook for emerging markets to be one of volatility at the start of the year, transitioning to growth and opportunity as U.S. trade policies and China stimulus plans become clearer.
People often make a distinction between “good debt” and “bad debt,” in terms of both personal finances and public spending.
As investors continue to step out of cash and potentially rebalance out of equities following their strong performance, we expect bonds to play a larger role in diversified portfolios next year.
If you happen to be a Bitcoin skeptic, you’re not alone. A recent Pew Research survey found that 63% of Americans are not confident in the reliability or safety of cryptocurrencies in general.
Index funds emerged in the early 1970s and were designed to match rather than beat the market. For decades, they were associated with the capitalization-weighted (CW) market indexes that defined their investment approach.
As we near the end of 2024, researchers, businesses, and investors have begun to question the overheated artificial intelligence sentiment.
Since we are not going to publish Weekly Economics on December 27, 2024, we will take this opportunity to say farewell to 2024 and to all our readers, we want to wish you a very happy holiday season and a very prosperous New Year 2025!
Has the U.S. economy diverged from the global economy, or are a lot of economic canaries in coalmines keeling over and warning the U.S. is soon to catch down?
This is the first part of a series of Bloomberg Opinion columns exploring the risks related to the US’s rapidly expanding debt and budget deficit.
Macroeconomic uncertainties prompted the Federal Reserve to signal a slower pace of policy rate cuts in 2025 and beyond.
This brief market commentary will run through some stats and provide context to the market’s recent fluctuations.
As the year comes to a close, we revisit some of the key market themes and moves for 2024 and the year ahead.
Private credit firms want more than corporate lending. The largest are laying the groundwork to finance everything from auto loans and residential mortgages to chip manufacturing and data centers in an effort to swell the size of the market by the trillions.
Despite the expectation of rate cuts, a push-pull dynamic could exist if high inflation continues, opening the door for short-term bonds.
Real Estate
BofA’s Hartnett Says Trump Trade to Shield US Stocks From Plunge
Donald Trump’s return to the White House will likely protect US stocks from a big selloff, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, as investors focus on his protectionist agenda and proposals for lower corporate taxes.
Reviewing Market and Economic Performance During the Biden Administration
As we close the chapter on Biden’s presidency, we take a moment to reflect on his legacy.
Schwab Market Perspective: Markets vs. Economy
Strong U.S. economic data has spurred a strong rise in Treasury yields but a tepid response in the stock market. Uncertainty likely will continue in coming months.
Surging Long-Term Rates Stoke GOP Tensions on Paying for Tax Cut
Surging long-term interest rates and stubborn inflation are inflaming divisions among congressional Republicans over paying for the sweeping tax cuts Donald Trump promised, complicating the path to passage with the party’s already tenuous majority.
Life Without ZIRP Spells RIR: Rising Interest Rates
In response to the 2008 stock market and real estate crash, the Federal Reserve stimulated the economy by reducing interest rates to (almost) zero under its zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP). It “printed money” that amazingly did not bring serious inflation, yet.
Building Permits Tick Down 0.7% in December
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits ticked down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.483 million in December. This marks a 0.7% decrease from November and a 3.1% decline compared to one year ago.
Housing Starts Jump 15.8% in December
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts jumped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.499 million in December, the highest level in ten months. This marks a 15.8% increase from November and a 4.4% decline compared to one year ago.
Investment Considerations for the Second Trump Presidency
With all eyes focused on the White House, investors must decide what the incoming President’s policies will mean for markets and how to position accordingly. Ahead of the inauguration, we asked our portfolio managers what they think should be front of mind.
A US ETF Split Surge in Q4 2024: Digging Into the Data and What It Means for Investors
Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.
Will Higher Rates Doom Stocks? Not Necessarily
While stocks can move higher, the bond market will continue to matter. Higher rates suggest that equity leadership may continue to reside in companies that are relatively rate insensitive.
Bull vs. Bear: Using Sector ETFs to Make Bets on the New Regime
For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, the VettaFi writers debate the case for using sector ETFs to make bets on the new market regime.
Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Value Falls to 3.5 Year Low
In December, nominal home values increased for a 21st straight months to a new all-time high. However, once we adjust for inflation, "real" home values declined for an 8th consecutive month to their lowest level since June 2021.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Inches to 9-Month High in January
Builder confidence inched up in January to its highest level in 9 months on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 47 this month, up one point from December. The latest reading came was above the forecast of 45.
The Inflation Genie Is Moving to the White House
The latest updates on the labor market and consumer prices show President-elect Donald Trump inherits an economy where inflation is poised to return to the Federal Reserve’s target later this year.
Uncertainty Is Certain
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Bonds – The Dual Benefit
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Transforming 2024 Insights Into 2025 Action
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Strategic Income Outlook: Magic 8-Ball Says, “Cannot Predict Now”
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
High Rates, Tight Supply: Housing’s 2025 Balancing Act
The US housing market faces a delicate balancing act in 2025, influenced by effects of the pandemic and persistently high mortgage rates.
The $2 Trillion Home Insurance Nightmare Is Getting Even Worse
On top of the human tragedy they’re still inflicting, the Los Angeles wildfires are exposing a gap between what people thought their homes were worth and what they’ll actually get from insurance companies when those houses have been reduced to ash. Potentially thousands of homeowners are learning it won’t be nearly enough.
Treasuries Surge as Easing Inflation Boosts Fed Rate-Cut Bets
US government bonds surged as benign inflation data prompted traders to resume their bets on additional Federal Reserve interest rate cuts by July.
How Parametric Strives to Stay Ahead in Direct Indexing
Direct indexing has been around for more than 30 years, yet many people still don’t know what it is or how it continues to grow and evolve.
Bond Yields Surge’s Potential Impacts on the Equity Market
US equities had a stellar 2024, with the S&P 500 up 25%, but the year ended on a softer note. The sharp rise in bond yields has caught the market's eye
2025 Outlook: Run It Back
The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.
Amid Rate Uncertainty, Shorten Duration With This Active ETF
Uncertainty with regard to interest rate policy warrants an active management strategy inherent in the Vanguard Short Duration Bond ETF.
Expect Innovation Led American Exceptionalism to Continue
Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.
Asset Allocation Interactive at 10 Years: The Good, the Not Too Bad, and the Ugly
Ten years ago, Research Affiliates launched the Asset Allocation Interactive online tool, making our CMEs freely available to the public. With one full cycle complete, we can see what has worked well and where we can improve.
2025 Political Outlook
Managing Director, Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills looks at how several of the top market-relevant Washington DC issues could play out in 2025.
Why Are Bond Yields Rising?
The question asked of me most often recently: "Why are bond yields rising?" After verbally answering it plenty of times, it's time to put my answer in writing for everyone else to see.
The Housing Outlook: 2025
If you’re going to remember one important fact about the housing market, it’s that with the brief exception of COVID, the US has consistently built too few homes almost every year since the housing bust got rough in 2007.
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” In 2025
As we enter 2025, the financial markets are optimistic. That optimism is fueled by strong market performance over the last two years and analyst’s projections for continued growth. However, as “Curb Your Enthusiasm” often demonstrates, even the best-laid plans can unravel when overlooked details come to light. Here are five reasons why a more cautious approach to investing might be warranted in 2025.
The Top 10 U.S. Aerospace and Defense Contractors
The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.
On Bubble Watch
Many people these days are on heightened alert for bubbles, and I’m often asked whether there’s a bubble surrounding the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the handful of stocks that have been leading it.
Could Equal Weight Strategies Make a Comeback This Year?
2024 certainly saw cap-weighted strategies outperform equally weighted alternatives, but that could very well change this year.
Who’s Afraid of Rising Treasury Yields? Not Stocks
Stock investors have been watching the runup in US Treasury yields with considerable alarm of late.
Outlook 2025: Planning for Growth and Embracing Change
After another resilient year for the US economy, we look ahead to the new year.
Five Alive: Where Is the Treasury 10-Year Yield Headed?
As we enter 2025, there has been a lot of conjecture about a return to the 5% threshold.
2025 Economic Outlook
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes break down the factors likely to impact economic growth, inflation and interest rates.
Q4 Recap: US Growth Closes the Year on Top
U.S. equities closed 2024 on top and U.S. growth took back leadership from U.S. value.
With New Risks Surfacing, How Should Investors Position Portfolios in 2025?
US equities were up notably in 2024, due to a strong economy, accelerating earnings growth, US election results, and AI/mega-cap strength.
A Necessary Tool for Income Investors… Especially Now
Since dividend investing can be boiled down to a single strategy—generating income—you might assume we don’t need a toolbox full of tools. We know that’s not true.
Treasury Bonds: Riding the Range
Yields may trade in a wide range as markets work through issues in the new year. Navigating volatility may mean capturing higher nominal and real yields over the longer term.
High Hopes or Hollow Hype? A 2025 Reality Check
While the market has largely moved past that year’s recession debate, it’s worth noting that the traditional definition that persisted for all our careers—two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth—did occur in the first half of 2022.
Notes From the Desk: The Starting Line for the US Yield Curve
Two key components drive the shape of the yield curve: expectations for the short-term interest rate and expectations for the term premium.
The January 25 Dashboard: Our 3 Layers of Risk Management
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. Investors should expect more equity market volatility ahead.
US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Just Shy of 7% Bridles Home Purchases
US mortgage rates edged up to just shy of 7% at the turn of year and a gauge of home-purchase applications tumbled to the lowest level since February, adding to evidence of a struggling housing market.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Sixth Straight Month in December
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its December services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 54.1, better than the forecast of 53.5. The latest reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the sixth straight month.
S&P Global Services PMI: Reaches 33-Month High in December
The December U.S. services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 56.8, the highest level since March 2022. The latest reading came in below the forecast of 58.5 but keeps the index in expansion territory for the 23rd straight month.
It Was a Very Good Year
Stocks are coming off another banner year, but strength has bred a frothy sentiment environment, which continues to loom as a risk for likely coming volatility.
Notes From the Desk: The Starting Line for the US Yield Curve
Two key components drive the shape of the yield curve: expectations for the short-term interest rate and expectations for the term premium.
The Rules Of Bob Farrell – An Updated Illustrated Guide
In a recent discussion on TheRealInvestmentShow, Bob Farrell and his 10 investment rules were discussed, which elicited several email questions asking, “Who is Bob Farrell, and where are these rules?”.
Economy Will Remain Supportive of Markets in 2025
The most important issue regarding what lies ahead from an economic perspective is that the economy’s fundamentals remain solid with very few misalignments that could derail it, at least for now.
Fourth Quarter 2024 Performance Commentary and Review
2024 was about as good as it gets in the equity markets – with the BGEP up 31% and the broader market as a whole posting double digit gains. Underneath the surface, we believe that there are three main drivers of the year’s solid returns. We discuss them below in our market review and outlook.
AI Frenzy Drove the S&P 500’s Best Two-Year Gains Since the Dot-Com Era
Stocks rallied in 2024, delivering a second consecutive year of gains exceeding 20%, as investors embraced cooling inflation, falling interest rates and the prospect of lower corporate taxes under a second Trump administration.
The UK Can Find Its Place in Trump’s America
What happens in the US economy doesn’t always stay there, particularly when it comes to the UK.
Three Ways the Fed's Message Falls Short — and How to Fix Them
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the central bank’s communication will be part of its 2025 monetary policy review.
Schwab's 2025 Long-Term Capital Market Expectations
Continuing last year's trend, our 2025 outlook shows fixed income benefiting from high rates, while equities face a narrowing edge over risk-free investments.
QuantStreet January 2025 Letter: Trump-Trade Reversal
After a strong November 2024, markets were generally down in December. The S&P 500 index was down 2.3%, while energy, small caps, value stocks, and REITs performed considerably worse.
Tech Investing in 2025: Emerging Trends and Market Opportunities
Gain insights into 2025’s top tech trends and market opportunities, and what experienced investors should consider for smart tech investments.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Tough End to 2024
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 49.4 in December from 49.7 in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of worsening conditions in the manufacturing sector. The latest reading was above the forecasted reading of 48.3.
S&P 500 Records Its Second Straight Year of 20%-Plus Gains
December's market activity highlights the need for caution in the near term.
Muni Bonds in a New Interest Rate Regime
Fixed income is top of mind as investors look to a new interest rate regime. Sylvia Yeh dives into the outlook for 2025.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes December 2024 Down 2.5%
Valid until the market close on January 1, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
10 Predictions for 2025
Investors continue to enjoy the bull market but remain somewhat nervous about valuation. Policy uncertainty is higher than usual, in part because there are so many policy changes at the same time.
Dissecting Our Discipline
All portfolio managers practice a stock-picking discipline in which they make choices. Growth stock investors attempt to predict which companies will grow the most in the future and compare the growth they expect to what they have to pay to participate.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Hits 17th Consecutive All-Time High in October
Home prices continued to trend upwards in October as the benchmark national index rose for the 21st consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% increase MoM, and a 3.6% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to -0.1% and YoY fell to -1.5%.
What the Housing Industry Needs in 2025
It’s now half a decade since anything in the US housing market could be considered normal. The pandemic boom was followed by a transaction bust, induced by the central bank, that did little to lower sky-high prices.
A Look Behind the Gaslight Curtain: Optimistic Assumptions Underlie 2025 Market Forecasts
It’s that time of year again, when pundits are forecasting next year’s stock market performance. I believe investors are being gaslighted more than usual this year because the basic underlying assumptions are optimistic and unlikely.
Tax-Efficient Strategies for Investment Properties
One of the benefits of purchasing property as an investment is the tax benefits that can come with it – both while you own it and after you sell. Applying tax-efficient strategies will help you make the most out of your investment property.
High Hopes, Solid Grounds
We prefer equities over fixed income, in particular U.S. equities as the outlook for the U.S. economy is solid and promising.
Tokenization Has Become Wall Street’s Latest Favorite Crypto Buzzword
Tokenization, or the process of creating digital representations of real-world assets on a blockchain, has become one of this year’s buzzwords in both conventional and crypto finance circles.
The Popular Rise of Lifetime Income on Annuities
Annuities can provide a guaranteed lifetime income stream in retirement, no matter how long you live. They thrive under high interest rate environments and are currently offering the highest payouts seen in years.
In American Debt We Trust — But for How Long?
America’s national debt would have horrified Ronald Reagan.
Stocks Rise in Shortened Session
Today often kicks off the Santa Claus rally. Stocks rose and volatility is down sharply from recent peaks, but yields keep rising, which has hurt the non-tech part of the market.
Decoding the Fed’s Latest Meeting: Impacts and Insights
The Federal Reserve’s recent meeting signaled a notable shift in its monetary policy approach.
2025 Economic & Market Outlook: Turning the Page
For 2025, the financial markets will be entering a new chapter in the ever-evolving policy story. Indeed, not only will the U.S. economy be operating under a new political and attendant fiscal backdrop, but it will also be in the midst of a different monetary policy setting—rate cuts, not the after-effects of rate hikes.
Volatility and Opportunity
We expect the playbook for emerging markets to be one of volatility at the start of the year, transitioning to growth and opportunity as U.S. trade policies and China stimulus plans become clearer.
Good Debt? Bad Debt? There’s No Such Thing
People often make a distinction between “good debt” and “bad debt,” in terms of both personal finances and public spending.
2025 Fixed Income Outlook: Monetary and Fiscal Crosscurrents May Create Volatility, Yet Opportunity Persists
As investors continue to step out of cash and potentially rebalance out of equities following their strong performance, we expect bonds to play a larger role in diversified portfolios next year.
BlackRock Says Bitcoin Deserves a Spot in Your Portfolio
If you happen to be a Bitcoin skeptic, you’re not alone. A recent Pew Research survey found that 63% of Americans are not confident in the reliability or safety of cryptocurrencies in general.
Capitalization-Weighted Indexes, RAFI, “Smart Beta,” and Factors (JPM Series)
Index funds emerged in the early 1970s and were designed to match rather than beat the market. For decades, they were associated with the capitalization-weighted (CW) market indexes that defined their investment approach.
Artificial Intelligence Doesn’t Appear Ready to Take Over the World Yet
As we near the end of 2024, researchers, businesses, and investors have begun to question the overheated artificial intelligence sentiment.
Extending the Runway to Achieve the Inflation Target
Since we are not going to publish Weekly Economics on December 27, 2024, we will take this opportunity to say farewell to 2024 and to all our readers, we want to wish you a very happy holiday season and a very prosperous New Year 2025!
Global Conditions Portend a Catch-Down in America
Has the U.S. economy diverged from the global economy, or are a lot of economic canaries in coalmines keeling over and warning the U.S. is soon to catch down?
America Needs to Break Its Debt Addiction — Crisis or Not
This is the first part of a series of Bloomberg Opinion columns exploring the risks related to the US’s rapidly expanding debt and budget deficit.
December Fed Takeaway: A Foggier Outlook and a More Cautious Path
Macroeconomic uncertainties prompted the Federal Reserve to signal a slower pace of policy rate cuts in 2025 and beyond.
A Tale of 2 Markets: Tech Dominance and Broader Market Weakness
This brief market commentary will run through some stats and provide context to the market’s recent fluctuations.
Notes From the Desk: Fixed Income Year in Review
As the year comes to a close, we revisit some of the key market themes and moves for 2024 and the year ahead.
Private Credit Plots Expansion in Bid for $40 Trillion Prize
Private credit firms want more than corporate lending. The largest are laying the groundwork to finance everything from auto loans and residential mortgages to chip manufacturing and data centers in an effort to swell the size of the market by the trillions.
Inflation Expectations Keep Short-Term Bonds in Play
Despite the expectation of rate cuts, a push-pull dynamic could exist if high inflation continues, opening the door for short-term bonds.