In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses the potential impact of seasonal weakness, momentum and the effect these factors could have on earnings in 2H2025.
Discounted municipal bonds could expose you to unexpected taxes. Here's what to know before you buy.
One of the biggest stories in the ETF market in 2025 has been the nonstop impressive asset-gathering pace of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO).
The materiality of ESG factors differs across sectors and markets. Investors need to understand how.
The April Consumer Price Index (‘CPI’) report was released last Wednesday and gave the Federal Reserve another positive data point in its inflation fight, as did Thursday’s negative Producer Price Index (‘PPI’).
The shifting change in market leadership to international outperformance may call for a portfolio review to assess overexposure risks.
The retailers are closing out the season in their usual fashion, but the early results have been mixed as they deal with headwinds ranging from a softening US consumer to impending tariffs.
Emerging-market (EM) stocks might not seem an obvious choice for anxious investors during a trade war. But history suggests that past volatility peaks have created favorable moments to invest in EM stocks.
As investors, we need to step back and examine the history of previous debt downgrades and their outcomes for the stock and bond markets. Let’s start with what Moody’s rating agency stated about its rating change.
By incorporating growth CDs into a diversified retirement plan, retirees can take advantage of equity market growth, protect their lifestyle, and avoid the fear of market downturns diminishing their savings.
President Donald Trump’s first overseas trip since returning to the White House is turning heads across the aerospace & defense and semiconductor industries.
Over the past ten years, we’ve discussed this question with about 50 of our friends and clients, resulting in many animated and productive conversations.
Fisher Investments recently wrote an interesting article asking whether corporate stock buybacks affect markets.
Stocks have rebounded since the White House delayed steep tariffs that were announced in early April, but trade policy remains a potential driver of volatility.
Despite the announcement of new tariffs, long-term inflation expectations—as measured by the 5y5y inflation rate—have remained stable
Builder confidence fell sharply in May as uncertainty stemming from elevated rates, tariffs, building costs, and the cloudy economic outlook dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 18 months.
Our overarching theme for U.S. fixed income has been, and will continue to be, based on the premise that interest rates will stay at more historically “normal” levels, but that, within this backdrop, investors will face heightened volatility.
In 2025, liquidity is not a background variable — it's a front-line risk factor, one that’s being tested repeatedly as global markets navigate a web of geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic signals.
Inflation cooled for a third straight month in April, hitting its lowest level in over four years. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.3% year-over-year, down from 2.4% in March and lower than the expected 2.4% growth.
The Q1 2025 earnings season heads into its final peak week with mostly positive results from S&P 500 companies thus far. With 90% of companies from the index now reporting, 78% have beaten Wall Street’s expectations, slightly better than what we’ve seen historically.
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through May 12, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 20.01%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 15.71% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.24%.
The dollar soared and Treasuries fell as the trade war between China and the US eased, stoking appetite for risk assets.
The US and China will temporarily lower tariffs on each other’s products in a dramatic ratcheting down of trade tensions that buys the world’s two largest economies three months to work toward a broader agreement.
Last week featured a light economic calendar, with the Fed holding its benchmark interest rate steady for the third consecutive meeting.
S&P 500® earnings per share estimates have come down sharply. According to FactSet, calendar year 2025 is now expected to show $266 in operating EPS for the Index.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for April. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 177,000.
Currently, the Three Tactical Rules are a “flashing yellow light” - a roughly neutral rating which represents a slight downgrade.
Over years, the US cemented its position as an exceptional source of earnings growth that fueled outsize equity returns. Many investors are now questioning whether the US will retain its advantages as President Trump’s trade policies add uncertainty to the outlook across industries.
A time-honored signal heeded by Wall Street’s credit industry — the weekly flow of money — is breaking down.
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.4% of civilian employment in April.
Travel on all roads and streets increased in March. The 12-month moving average was up 0.10% month-over-month but was up 0.99% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.03% MoM and down 0.91% YoY.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
A look back at the impacts of tariff announcements last quarter, and what we might expect from tariff negotiations during the 90-day implementation delay in Q2.
Results from some of the Magnificent 7 names last week reignited the AI trade. Both Meta and Microsoft reported after-the-bell on Wednesday, blowing past analyst estimates
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its March Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 51.6—above the forecast of 50.2. This marks the tenth consecutive month of expansion for the index.
The April U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 50.8, below the 51.4 forecast. The reading marks the 27th consecutive month of expansion and the slowest growth since November 2023.
In investing, success is often judged by numbers—returns on investment, percentage gains, and the ability to outperform benchmarks like the S&P 500. However, some investors frequently pursue a peculiar set of “awards” without realizing the pitfalls they embody.
April was a volatile and policy-sensitive month in the markets. Every week, my colleagues and I were joined by Professor Jeremy Siegel to discuss how macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy and the variety of tariff proposals from President Trump shaped sentiment and the investment landscape.
Economic data can be soft or hard. “Soft” data reflects attitudes, expectations, opinions, and feelings. It’s a step removed from the “hard” data reflecting actual events. Soft data is still valuable because future expectations shape the hard data that follows.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 24.5 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 32.6.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 48.7 in April, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a second straight month. The latest reading was above the forecast of 48.0.
U.S. manufacturing growth remained subdued in April as confidence in the outlook hit a ten-month low and prices continued to quickly rise. With that said, the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fourth straight month in April at 50.2 signaling a marginal expansion. The latest reading was lower than the 50.7 forecast.
The Covid-19 pandemic brought some big shifts in the US labor market. The biggest was the departure of millions of older workers, ending a decades-long rise in employment and labor-force participation rates for those 65 and older.
With flexibility, humility and disciplined processes, equity investors can find a way forward.
With the release of March's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.42% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.46% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 3.33% nominal and 1.01% real.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index rose more than expected in March, experiencing its largest monthly increase in over two years. The index came in at 76.5, a 6.1% jump from the previous month but a 0.6% decline from one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to rise 0.9% month-over-month.
As we have written…The Era of Easy Everything is ending. Part of this involves bringing inflation back to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%. We could debate that number, but the Fed is getting closer.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in February as the benchmark national index rose for the 25th consecutive month to a 21st straight record high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% increase MoM, and a 3.9% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.0% and YoY fell to -0.5%.
High-yield bonds may be an attractive choice for investors looking to rebalance portfolios.
Gold has been a high-performing investment over the prior year. It has rallied on the back of falling short-term interest rates and recently increased uncertainty about global trade and economic growth.
It’s harder to make it as a professional stock picker than it used to be, which is saying a lot because it was never easy.
Five pivotal U.S. economic considerations, including tariffs, monetary policy, fiscal policy, debt overhang, and demographics, are aligning to depress economic growth for the balance of this year and into 2026.
A well-planned defensive strategy can position equity portfolios to be resilient in a very harsh market environment.
Tesla Inc. reported abysmal numbers for the first quarter on Tuesday evening. Naturally, Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk kicked off the call with a discussion on why he must fix America’s finances, facing down an army of alleged moochers.
Uncertainty surrounding trade policy is a key driver of our forecast this quarter, which includes an increased probability of a recession.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity declined modestly in April, with the composite index at -4. This marks the 20th consecutive month the index has been negative. Future expectations stayed positive, though they eased from 10 in March to 6 in April.
Existing home sales sank in March with their largest monthly decline since 2022. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell 5.9% from February, hitting a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units in March.
Recent volatility has pushed yields to historically high levels, potentially creating opportunities in municipal bonds, especially for higher-net-worth investors.
The bond market has been extremely volatile the past couple of weeks since the introduction of global tariffs by the US. Bond yields have sold off almost 50 basis points, and today we'd like to examine why did that occur, what's next, and how should investors think about duration in this environment?
Coming off a wild ending to a disappointing first quarter, investors must navigate unsettled capital markets and decipher a wave of incoming policy news.
Stock markets have been rattled by trade war tensions and economic uncertainty driven by US tariff policies. Yet history suggests that equities have usually performed well in the aftermath of peak market volatility.
With many of the big financial reports out of the way, the S&P 500 blended EPS growth rate for Q1 stands at 7.2%. Thus far only 12% of S&P 500 constituents have released results.
U.S. defensives and international lead.a
Active management has not disappeared — it has simply evolved. Rather than focusing on outdated stock selection methodologies, today’s most effective active strategies center on active portfolio construction and dynamic asset allocation.
Banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. can thank the White House’s aggressive disruptions on tariff policy and other issues for record hauls from equities trading in the first quarter, when market volatility began to surge.
LPL Financial LLC announced today that financial advisor Steve Jones of Tenacity Investment Group has joined LPL Financial’s broker-dealer, Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) and custodial platforms.
CIO Sean Taylor assesses a better-than-expected quarter for emerging markets and takes stock of the drivers that may support the asset class in what could be difficult months ahead for global markets.
It’s always an honor for me to both attend and speak at the Barron’s conference. In thinking about this column, I am recalling many of the amazing presentations, great insights and fabulous speakers I heard.
If the goal is to use technological platforms to customize and maximize the experience for your clients, it seems many of us still have a way to go.
Markets have had a wild ride these past couple of weeks, alongside chaotic tariff-related news, with volatility (and its policy triggers) most elevated in the bond market.
On Monday, April 7, the S&P 500 dropped as much as 4.7% at the session low before whiplashing higher on reports of a potential tariff delay—closing the day up 3.4% from Friday’s close.
On the evening before his presentation at the Exchange Conference last week, I sat down with Rob Arnott to discuss whether now is the time for smart beta to shine. Arnott is the founder and chair of Research Affiliates and is known as the “godfather of smart beta.”
If Trump is successful in ending — or at least significantly changing — the current global economic structure, the economy and geopolitics will change dramatically. Initially, this will be highly challenging from an investment perspective.
As with all decisions involving uncertainty, we want to find the answer which maximizes your expected risk-adjusted return, not your base-case or expected return. This means that we have to go beyond the industry standard and explicitly account for risk in our analysis.
Bonds have gained as investors sought shelter amid growing fears around a tariff-driven global economic slowdown.
Markets responded swiftly to President Trump’s recent announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs, with the S&P 500 falling more than 3% in a single day.
Last week President Trump announced tariffs on nearly all US trading partners, a move that far exceeded the most pessimistic expectations of market participants.
Members of Congress from both parties were among the many caught off guard by last week's Rose Garden tariff announcement.
In an era when a select group of tech behemoths has dominated market returns, investors are growing increasingly wary of the concentration risk it poses.
The fifth edition of our annual “Voice of the American Workplace” survey, conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of Franklin Templeton, includes the perspectives of both employers and workers. The 2025 survey found US workers are prioritizing work-life balance and their mental health. Employers are listening and strengthening their focus on improving benefits and communication. In this piece, our Jacque Reardon shares findings from the survey and potential implications for employers.
Many of us came into the year with highly concentrated portfolios, which now were faced with changing market conditions.
The recent market drawdown highlights risks of a concentrated S&P 500—and the case for diversification now.
As investors are uncomfortably aware of, global equity markets have been in freefall since U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of “reciprocal tariffs” on April 2.
VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the T. Rowe Price International Equity ETF (TOUS) on this week’s “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.”
Like a crossword puzzle, President Trump has been bombarding the media with clues about his economic policy. Given the importance of inflation and interest rates to the economy and the financial markets, it's worth assessing his clues and formulating some answers about what Trump may be up to.
Last week's economic landscape was dramatically reshaped by President Trump's announcement of sweeping tariff policies on what he declared "Liberation Day." His announcement triggered a historic sell-off in the stock market.
Global markets are in freefall in response to President Donald Trump’s universal 10% tariff on all goods being imported into the U.S., with as many as 60 countries facing “reciprocal” tariffs on top of that.
Factor-Based Investing
Seasonal Weakness Is a Bigger Risk This Year
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses the potential impact of seasonal weakness, momentum and the effect these factors could have on earnings in 2H2025.
Buying a Muni Below Par? Reasons to Think Twice
Discounted municipal bonds could expose you to unexpected taxes. Here's what to know before you buy.
5 Unique Passive ETF Ways of Owning the S&P 500
One of the biggest stories in the ETF market in 2025 has been the nonstop impressive asset-gathering pace of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO).
Materiality Matters: The ESG Factors That Count
The materiality of ESG factors differs across sectors and markets. Investors need to understand how.
Inflation Continues to Cool
The April Consumer Price Index (‘CPI’) report was released last Wednesday and gave the Federal Reserve another positive data point in its inflation fight, as did Thursday’s negative Producer Price Index (‘PPI’).
Why International and Why Now
The shifting change in market leadership to international outperformance may call for a portfolio review to assess overexposure risks.
Retailers Close Out the Q1 Earnings Season with Mixed Results
The retailers are closing out the season in their usual fashion, but the early results have been mixed as they deal with headwinds ranging from a softening US consumer to impending tariffs.
Why Does Volatility Often Lead to Strong Emerging Equity Returns?
Emerging-market (EM) stocks might not seem an obvious choice for anxious investors during a trade war. But history suggests that past volatility peaks have created favorable moments to invest in EM stocks.
Moody’s Debt Downgrade – Does It Matter?
As investors, we need to step back and examine the history of previous debt downgrades and their outcomes for the stock and bond markets. Let’s start with what Moody’s rating agency stated about its rating change.
Growth CDs: Access Stock Market Appreciation With FDIC Protection
By incorporating growth CDs into a diversified retirement plan, retirees can take advantage of equity market growth, protect their lifestyle, and avoid the fear of market downturns diminishing their savings.
Trump’s Gulf Visit Ignites Record Military Sales and AI Infrastructure Boom
President Donald Trump’s first overseas trip since returning to the White House is turning heads across the aerospace & defense and semiconductor industries.
The Most Revealing Question in Personal Investing…and How Warren Buffett Helps Us Answer It
Over the past ten years, we’ve discussed this question with about 50 of our friends and clients, resulting in many animated and productive conversations.
Corporate Stock Buybacks – Do They Affect Markets?
Fisher Investments recently wrote an interesting article asking whether corporate stock buybacks affect markets.
Schwab Market Perspective: The Tariff Effect
Stocks have rebounded since the White House delayed steep tariffs that were announced in early April, but trade policy remains a potential driver of volatility.
Inflation Expectations Hold Firm Amid Tariff Noise
Despite the announcement of new tariffs, long-term inflation expectations—as measured by the 5y5y inflation rate—have remained stable
NAHB Housing Market Index: Growing Uncertainty Drags Down Builder Confidence
Builder confidence fell sharply in May as uncertainty stemming from elevated rates, tariffs, building costs, and the cloudy economic outlook dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 18 months.
Income Without the Volatility…or Credit Exposure
Our overarching theme for U.S. fixed income has been, and will continue to be, based on the premise that interest rates will stay at more historically “normal” levels, but that, within this backdrop, investors will face heightened volatility.
Liquidity Risk in 2025: A Strategic Priority, Not a Side Concern
In 2025, liquidity is not a background variable — it's a front-line risk factor, one that’s being tested repeatedly as global markets navigate a web of geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic signals.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Cools to 2.3% in April, Lower Than Expected
Inflation cooled for a third straight month in April, hitting its lowest level in over four years. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.3% year-over-year, down from 2.4% in March and lower than the expected 2.4% growth.
A Better-than-Expected Q1 Earnings Season Wraps up with the Retailers
The Q1 2025 earnings season heads into its final peak week with mostly positive results from S&P 500 companies thus far. With 90% of companies from the index now reporting, 78% have beaten Wall Street’s expectations, slightly better than what we’ve seen historically.
World Markets Watchlist: May 12, 2025
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through May 12, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 20.01%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 15.71% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.24%.
Dollar Surges, Treasuries Fall as US-China Trade Tensions Ease
The dollar soared and Treasuries fell as the trade war between China and the US eased, stoking appetite for risk assets.
US, China to Slash Tariffs During 90-Day Reprieve for Talks
The US and China will temporarily lower tariffs on each other’s products in a dramatic ratcheting down of trade tensions that buys the world’s two largest economies three months to work toward a broader agreement.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Fed Holds Steady Amid Services Growth & Record Trade Gap
Last week featured a light economic calendar, with the Fed holding its benchmark interest rate steady for the third consecutive meeting.
Dividend Hikes Offer Optimism Amid Tariff Turmoil
S&P 500® earnings per share estimates have come down sharply. According to FactSet, calendar year 2025 is now expected to show $266 in operating EPS for the Index.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: April 2025
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for April. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 177,000.
Tactical Rules Move to Neutral
Currently, the Three Tactical Rules are a “flashing yellow light” - a roughly neutral rating which represents a slight downgrade.
Is US Exceptionalism Over for Equity Investors?
Over years, the US cemented its position as an exceptional source of earnings growth that fueled outsize equity returns. Many investors are now questioning whether the US will retain its advantages as President Trump’s trade policies add uncertainty to the outlook across industries.
Citi Says Fast-Money ETFs Are Shaking Up Flows Across Credit
A time-honored signal heeded by Wall Street’s credit industry — the weekly flow of money — is breaking down.
Multiple Jobholders Account for 5.4% of Workers in April 2025
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.4% of civilian employment in April.
America's Driving Habits: March 2025
Travel on all roads and streets increased in March. The 12-month moving average was up 0.10% month-over-month but was up 0.99% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.03% MoM and down 0.91% YoY.
Unemployment Claims and the CLF as a Recession Indicator: April 2025
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Tariffs: Q1 Impacts and Q2 Negotiations
A look back at the impacts of tariff announcements last quarter, and what we might expect from tariff negotiations during the 90-day implementation delay in Q2.
Big Tech Breathes Life into Q1 Earnings
Results from some of the Magnificent 7 names last week reignited the AI trade. Both Meta and Microsoft reported after-the-bell on Wednesday, blowing past analyst estimates
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Tenth Straight Month in April
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its March Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 51.6—above the forecast of 50.2. This marks the tenth consecutive month of expansion for the index.
S&P Global Services PMI: Slowest Growth in 17 Months
The April U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 50.8, below the 51.4 forecast. The reading marks the 27th consecutive month of expansion and the slowest growth since November 2023.
The Awards You Never Get When Investing
In investing, success is often judged by numbers—returns on investment, percentage gains, and the ability to outperform benchmarks like the S&P 500. However, some investors frequently pursue a peculiar set of “awards” without realizing the pitfalls they embody.
Top Lessons from Professor Siegel This April
April was a volatile and policy-sensitive month in the markets. Every week, my colleagues and I were joined by Professor Jeremy Siegel to discuss how macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy and the variety of tariff proposals from President Trump shaped sentiment and the investment landscape.
Soft Data Gets Softer
Economic data can be soft or hard. “Soft” data reflects attitudes, expectations, opinions, and feelings. It’s a step removed from the “hard” data reflecting actual events. Soft data is still valuable because future expectations shape the hard data that follows.
P/E10 and Market Valuation: April 2025
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 24.5 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 32.6.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: Slipped Further into Contraction in April
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 48.7 in April, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a second straight month. The latest reading was above the forecast of 48.0.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Subdued Growth in April
U.S. manufacturing growth remained subdued in April as confidence in the outlook hit a ten-month low and prices continued to quickly rise. With that said, the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fourth straight month in April at 50.2 signaling a marginal expansion. The latest reading was lower than the 50.7 forecast.
Gen Z’s Hole in the Labor Market Could Soon Grow
The Covid-19 pandemic brought some big shifts in the US labor market. The biggest was the departure of millions of older workers, ending a decades-long rise in employment and labor-force participation rates for those 65 and older.
Three Ways to Avoid the Eye of the Equity Market Storm
With flexibility, humility and disciplined processes, equity investors can find a way forward.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.5% in March
With the release of March's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.42% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.46% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 3.33% nominal and 1.01% real.
Pending Home Sales Jump 6.1% in March
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index rose more than expected in March, experiencing its largest monthly increase in over two years. The index came in at 76.5, a 6.1% jump from the previous month but a 0.6% decline from one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to rise 0.9% month-over-month.
Don't Watch "Cash on the Sidelines"
As we have written…The Era of Easy Everything is ending. Part of this involves bringing inflation back to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%. We could debate that number, but the Fed is getting closer.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: 3.9% Annual Gain in February
Home prices continued to trend upwards in February as the benchmark national index rose for the 25th consecutive month to a 21st straight record high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% increase MoM, and a 3.9% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.0% and YoY fell to -0.5%.
High-Yield Bonds: An Antidote to Volatility?
High-yield bonds may be an attractive choice for investors looking to rebalance portfolios.
The Gold Investment Thesis Revisited
Gold has been a high-performing investment over the prior year. It has rallied on the back of falling short-term interest rates and recently increased uncertainty about global trade and economic growth.
Star Stock Pickers Must Now Beat Their Clones
It’s harder to make it as a professional stock picker than it used to be, which is saying a lot because it was never easy.
Quarterly Review and Outlook
Five pivotal U.S. economic considerations, including tariffs, monetary policy, fiscal policy, debt overhang, and demographics, are aligning to depress economic growth for the balance of this year and into 2026.
Defense and Discipline: How to Stay Calm in Unruly Equity Markets
A well-planned defensive strategy can position equity portfolios to be resilient in a very harsh market environment.
Tesla’s Cure for Musk’s Missteps Is More Musk
Tesla Inc. reported abysmal numbers for the first quarter on Tuesday evening. Naturally, Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk kicked off the call with a discussion on why he must fix America’s finances, facing down an army of alleged moochers.
Asset Allocation Quarterly: 2nd Quarter 2025
Uncertainty surrounding trade policy is a key driver of our forecast this quarter, which includes an increased probability of a recession.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing: Activity Declined Modestly in April
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity declined modestly in April, with the composite index at -4. This marks the 20th consecutive month the index has been negative. Future expectations stayed positive, though they eased from 10 in March to 6 in April.
Existing Home Sales Sink 5.9% in March
Existing home sales sank in March with their largest monthly decline since 2022. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell 5.9% from February, hitting a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units in March.
Why the Tariff Rollout Spooked the Muni Market
Recent volatility has pushed yields to historically high levels, potentially creating opportunities in municipal bonds, especially for higher-net-worth investors.
Anatomy of a US Treasury Sell-Off
The bond market has been extremely volatile the past couple of weeks since the introduction of global tariffs by the US. Bond yields have sold off almost 50 basis points, and today we'd like to examine why did that occur, what's next, and how should investors think about duration in this environment?
Capital Markets Outlook 2Q 2025: At the Intersection of Fear and Hope
Coming off a wild ending to a disappointing first quarter, investors must navigate unsettled capital markets and decipher a wave of incoming policy news.
Gauging the Fear Factor: From Volatility Peaks to Equity Returns
Stock markets have been rattled by trade war tensions and economic uncertainty driven by US tariff policies. Yet history suggests that equities have usually performed well in the aftermath of peak market volatility.
Magnificent 7 Earnings Out this Week will Shed Light on Big Tech’s Tariff Concerns
With many of the big financial reports out of the way, the S&P 500 blended EPS growth rate for Q1 stands at 7.2%. Thus far only 12% of S&P 500 constituents have released results.
Why Does Volatility Often Lead to Strong Emerging Equity Returns?
Emerging-market (EM) stocks might not seem an obvious choice for anxious investors during a trade war. But history suggests that past volatility peaks have created favorable moments to invest in EM stocks.
Quarterly Recap Q1 2025
U.S. defensives and international lead.a
The Evolution of Active Management: From Stock Picking to Active Asset Allocation
Active management has not disappeared — it has simply evolved. Rather than focusing on outdated stock selection methodologies, today’s most effective active strategies center on active portfolio construction and dynamic asset allocation.
The Dark Side of Surging Bank Trading Revenue
Banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. can thank the White House’s aggressive disruptions on tariff policy and other issues for record hauls from equities trading in the first quarter, when market volatility began to surge.
Why Does Volatility Often Lead to Strong Emerging Equity Returns?
Emerging-market (EM) stocks might not seem an obvious choice for anxious investors during a trade war. But history suggests that past volatility peaks have created favorable moments to invest in EM stocks.
Gauging the Fear Factor: From Volatility Peaks to Equity Returns
Stock markets have been rattled by trade war tensions and economic uncertainty driven by US tariff policies. Yet history suggests that equities have usually performed well in the aftermath of peak market volatility.
LPL Financial Welcomes Tenacity Investment Group
LPL Financial LLC announced today that financial advisor Steve Jones of Tenacity Investment Group has joined LPL Financial’s broker-dealer, Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) and custodial platforms.
Domestic Drivers in Tariff Headwinds
CIO Sean Taylor assesses a better-than-expected quarter for emerging markets and takes stock of the drivers that may support the asset class in what could be difficult months ahead for global markets.
Key Conference Takeaways on Being a Better Manager
It’s always an honor for me to both attend and speak at the Barron’s conference. In thinking about this column, I am recalling many of the amazing presentations, great insights and fabulous speakers I heard.
Making It Personal: Improve Your Online Presence With Smart Data Usage
If the goal is to use technological platforms to customize and maximize the experience for your clients, it seems many of us still have a way to go.
Upside Down(side): Markets' Wild Rides
Markets have had a wild ride these past couple of weeks, alongside chaotic tariff-related news, with volatility (and its policy triggers) most elevated in the bond market.
Lessons From the Dip: A Gameplan for Market Chaos
On Monday, April 7, the S&P 500 dropped as much as 4.7% at the session low before whiplashing higher on reports of a potential tariff delay—closing the day up 3.4% from Friday’s close.
Is It Time for Smart Beta to Be Smart?
On the evening before his presentation at the Exchange Conference last week, I sat down with Rob Arnott to discuss whether now is the time for smart beta to shine. Arnott is the founder and chair of Research Affiliates and is known as the “godfather of smart beta.”
Trump’s Economic Revolution: Unraveling a Blessing & a Curse
If Trump is successful in ending — or at least significantly changing — the current global economic structure, the economy and geopolitics will change dramatically. Initially, this will be highly challenging from an investment perspective.
Where Did I Put My Investments?
As with all decisions involving uncertainty, we want to find the answer which maximizes your expected risk-adjusted return, not your base-case or expected return. This means that we have to go beyond the industry standard and explicitly account for risk in our analysis.
As Tariffs Cloud Outlook, Municipal Bonds May Offer Opportunity
Bonds have gained as investors sought shelter amid growing fears around a tariff-driven global economic slowdown.
Tariffs, Turbulence, and the Case for Staying Diversified
Markets responded swiftly to President Trump’s recent announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs, with the S&P 500 falling more than 3% in a single day.
The Path Forward After the Tariff Shock
Last week President Trump announced tariffs on nearly all US trading partners, a move that far exceeded the most pessimistic expectations of market participants.
Washington: What to Watch Now
Members of Congress from both parties were among the many caught off guard by last week's Rose Garden tariff announcement.
Small Caps, Big Opportunities: Investing Beyond Large-Cap Stocks
In an era when a select group of tech behemoths has dominated market returns, investors are growing increasingly wary of the concentration risk it poses.
Aligning for Success: From Conflict to Consensus
The fifth edition of our annual “Voice of the American Workplace” survey, conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of Franklin Templeton, includes the perspectives of both employers and workers. The 2025 survey found US workers are prioritizing work-life balance and their mental health. Employers are listening and strengthening their focus on improving benefits and communication. In this piece, our Jacque Reardon shares findings from the survey and potential implications for employers.
3 ETF Demand Trends Amid Market Turmoil
Many of us came into the year with highly concentrated portfolios, which now were faced with changing market conditions.
Market Madness: The 'Elite 8' Are Becoming a Liability
The recent market drawdown highlights risks of a concentrated S&P 500—and the case for diversification now.
What to Watch in The Face of Tariff Turbulence
As investors are uncomfortably aware of, global equity markets have been in freefall since U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of “reciprocal tariffs” on April 2.
T. Rowe Price International Equity ETF (TOUS)
VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the T. Rowe Price International Equity ETF (TOUS) on this week’s “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.”
Solving Trump’s Economic Puzzle
Like a crossword puzzle, President Trump has been bombarding the media with clues about his economic policy. Given the importance of inflation and interest rates to the economy and the financial markets, it's worth assessing his clues and formulating some answers about what Trump may be up to.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Jobs Strength in Rearview Mirror as Tariff Fears Grip Markets
Last week's economic landscape was dramatically reshaped by President Trump's announcement of sweeping tariff policies on what he declared "Liberation Day." His announcement triggered a historic sell-off in the stock market.
America’s Tariff Rate Hits the Highest Level Since 1909—And That’s Before Retaliation
Global markets are in freefall in response to President Donald Trump’s universal 10% tariff on all goods being imported into the U.S., with as many as 60 countries facing “reciprocal” tariffs on top of that.