Capital Growth

U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.

Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.

While stocks can move higher, the bond market will continue to matter. Higher rates suggest that equity leadership may continue to reside in companies that are relatively rate insensitive.

Reflecting ongoing uncertainty around inflation and the trajectory of monetary policy, yield volatility posed challenges in 2024. Yet it also highlighted the importance of tax-efficient strategies like loss harvesting in fixed income portfolios.

The Social Security Fairness Act is expected to enhance benefits for many starting in 2024. Our Bill Cass explains the significance of the new law.

Despite challenges, the U.S. market saw strong returns in 2024 with a "soft landing" for the economy, leading to key questions and emerging themes for investors in 2025.

For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, the VettaFi writers debate the case for using sector ETFs to make bets on the new market regime.

Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.

Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.

Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.

Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.

Outsourced trading is a growing trend among asset managers, with recent headlines illustrating how firms are reassessing their approach to how trading fits in their broader strategic plans.

Economic data and policies out of China are typically delayed until mid-March. Stock volatility may be prevalent until initiatives are clarified after the Lunar New Year.

The strong performance of large-cap stocks over the past decade has left the market exceptionally top-heavy. By some measures, stock market capitalization has never been more concentrated among a handful of large stocks as today.

The calendar page has turned, and that means we have the opportunity to get 2025 off to a good start.

I publish an updated version of my New Year “investor” resolutions yearly. The purpose of the process is to take an annual inventory of what I did and did not do over the last year to improve my portfolio management practices.

Direct indexing has been around for more than 30 years, yet many people still don’t know what it is or how it continues to grow and evolve.

US equities had a stellar 2024, with the S&P 500 up 25%, but the year ended on a softer note. The sharp rise in bond yields has caught the market's eye

The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.

Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.

Ten years ago, Research Affiliates launched the Asset Allocation Interactive online tool, making our CMEs freely available to the public. With one full cycle complete, we can see what has worked well and where we can improve.

Active fixed income could stand out in 2025, with active offering a way to refresh bond portfolios and allocations.

As we kick off 2025, the economic landscape showcased a strong economy and resilient job market even as higher interest rates weigh on market sentiment. This week’s data underscore the delicate interplay between inflation expectations, real growth, and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.

The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.

Managing Director, Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills looks at how several of the top market-relevant Washington DC issues could play out in 2025.

On the inaugural edition of Market Week in Review for 2025, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, discussed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as well as the latest batch of U.S. and global economic data.

Every new year brings with it a new opportunity to stop for a moment, revisit resolutions, and refresh outlooks.

Markets are coming off back-to-back gains of more than 20% each on an annual basis. The chances of a hat trick in 2025 are slim to none.

We are pro-risk, with the biggest overweight in U.S. stocks, yet eye three areas that could spur a view change.

The US labor market has remained relatively strong, but the trend over the last year or so has been one of normalization back to the pre-pandemic levels.

As we enter 2025, the financial markets are optimistic. That optimism is fueled by strong market performance over the last two years and analyst’s projections for continued growth. However, as “Curb Your Enthusiasm” often demonstrates, even the best-laid plans can unravel when overlooked details come to light. Here are five reasons why a more cautious approach to investing might be warranted in 2025.

The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.

Rough times are coming, yes, but I think we have at least 12 good months before the worst gets here. Let’s look at some of the reasons why things should be okay and then look at some of the potential problems.

With 2024 in the books, market participants now know that the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index surged about 85% over the past two years.

Many people these days are on heightened alert for bubbles, and I’m often asked whether there’s a bubble surrounding the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the handful of stocks that have been leading it.

2024 certainly saw cap-weighted strategies outperform equally weighted alternatives, but that could very well change this year.

After another resilient year for the US economy, we look ahead to the new year.

Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes break down the factors likely to impact economic growth, inflation and interest rates.

U.S. equities closed 2024 on top and U.S. growth took back leadership from U.S. value.

US equities were up notably in 2024, due to a strong economy, accelerating earnings growth, US election results, and AI/mega-cap strength.

After hitting nearly 80% of my predictions over the first five years, the past two years are calling into question whether I’m truly the ETF Nostradamus.

Since dividend investing can be boiled down to a single strategy—generating income—you might assume we don’t need a toolbox full of tools. We know that’s not true.

While the market has largely moved past that year’s recession debate, it’s worth noting that the traditional definition that persisted for all our careers—two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth—did occur in the first half of 2022.

Although underlying fundamentals and company financial statements can be difficult to analyze, the general public can easily discern price movements and understand the primary objective—buy low and sell high.

In our year ahead outlook, we unveil 5 key factors we believe offer rare certainty in these uncertain times. Discover how we’re navigating this landscape and positioning portfolios to seize opportunities and mitigate risks in the year ahead.

Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. Investors should expect more equity market volatility ahead.