New Yorkers bowing their heads into a cutting wind is typically a bullish sign for natural gas prices, and this January is no exception.
The latest US sanctions on oil tankers hauling Russian petroleum look set to cause severe disruption across the nation’s export machine, with some of Moscow’s flows at risk of a near wipeout if history is any guide.
A look at how the renewable energy opportunity may and may not change.
Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are crafting a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic accord in the coming months while at the same time squeezing Iran and Venezuela, people familiar with the matter said.
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 17, 2025 at 4.61%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.27% and the 30-year note ended at 4.84%.
Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.
Nominal retail sales in December were up 0.45% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.92% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.06% MoM and up 1.00% YoY.
Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief after a surprise slowdown in inflation spurred a stock rally and a plunge in bond yields, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve is on track to keep cutting rates this year.
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.
Most of us like to ring in the new year with fresh energy. The Europeans appear to have made good on this resolution.
Gas prices were unchanged this past week while WTIC rose for a third straight week to its highest level in four months. As of January 13th, the price of regular and premium gas were unchanged from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $77.30, up 5.1% from last week.
“Risk,” according to London Business School’s Elroy Dimson, “means that more things can happen than will happen.” Serhii Plokhy’s Chernobyl Roulette provides the reader with a compelling demonstration of that dictum.
As we kick off 2025, the economic landscape showcased a strong economy and resilient job market even as higher interest rates weigh on market sentiment. This week’s data underscore the delicate interplay between inflation expectations, real growth, and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.
The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.
For decades, one of Saudi Arabia’s most strategic overseas outposts was a little-known office in New York City that coordinated its oil sales to American clients.
Treasuries extended their drop after Friday’s blowout employment report strengthened speculation that the Federal Reserve is poised to pause its interest-rate cuts for virtually all of this year.
The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.
Rough times are coming, yes, but I think we have at least 12 good months before the worst gets here. Let’s look at some of the reasons why things should be okay and then look at some of the potential problems.
Energy is the star sector of the S&P 500 Index in the early days of 2025, shaking off two consecutive years when it was a market laggard, and gaining despite Wall Street’s dim outlook for oil and gas stocks.
Many people these days are on heightened alert for bubbles, and I’m often asked whether there’s a bubble surrounding the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the handful of stocks that have been leading it.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. December saw a 256,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment ticked down to 4.1%.
After another resilient year for the US economy, we look ahead to the new year.
US equities were up notably in 2024, due to a strong economy, accelerating earnings growth, US election results, and AI/mega-cap strength.
US investment banks have little room for error in their upcoming full-year results.
Since dividend investing can be boiled down to a single strategy—generating income—you might assume we don’t need a toolbox full of tools. We know that’s not true.
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the December 31, 2024 close.
The AI boom of the past two years has largely been a two-horse race. Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Microsoft Corp.-funded OpenAI have duked it out for customers, while Amazon.com Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. have nibbled at the margins for market share.
A few weeks ago, a reader emailed to challenge what he described as our “cautionary, skeptical and net negative” stance on Bitcoin.
On December 6, the S&P 500 set the most extreme level of valuations on record, exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks on measures that we find best-correlated with actual, subsequent 10-12 year S&P 500 total returns across a century of market cycles.
For 2025 and beyond, a few particular global and industry trends can offer attractive long-term returns for advisors and investors alike.
It’s important that investors remember to rebalance their commodity ETF exposure, particularly as equity ETFs had a strong year in 2024.
The December U.S. services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 56.8, the highest level since March 2022. The latest reading came in below the forecast of 58.5 but keeps the index in expansion territory for the 23rd straight month.
President-elect Donald Trump is said to be interested in the privatization of the US Postal Service, a prospect that also appeals to his DOGE project and its allies in Congress.
Stocks rallied in 2024, delivering a second consecutive year of gains exceeding 20%, as investors embraced cooling inflation, falling interest rates and the prospect of lower corporate taxes under a second Trump administration.
Most people don’t pay much attention to the political process, either local or federal. This year I think it is something we should all be paying attention to as it might affect our various lives.
President Joe Biden is indefinitely blocking offshore oil and gas development in more than 625 million acres of US coastal waters, warning that drilling there is simply “not worth the risks” and “unnecessary” to meet the nation’s energy needs.
After a strong November 2024, markets were generally down in December. The S&P 500 index was down 2.3%, while energy, small caps, value stocks, and REITs performed considerably worse.
Political uncertainty and volatility create fertile ground for active investors to find companies that can successfully navigate a new era.
Gain insights into 2025’s top tech trends and market opportunities, and what experienced investors should consider for smart tech investments.
Although the general public might not pay much attention to such price swings, they still leave a serious impact on global trade and investment.
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 49.4 in December from 49.7 in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of worsening conditions in the manufacturing sector. The latest reading was above the forecasted reading of 48.3.
December's market activity highlights the need for caution in the near term.
As of December 31, 2024, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
Investors continue to enjoy the bull market but remain somewhat nervous about valuation. Policy uncertainty is higher than usual, in part because there are so many policy changes at the same time.
All portfolio managers practice a stock-picking discipline in which they make choices. Growth stock investors attempt to predict which companies will grow the most in the future and compare the growth they expect to what they have to pay to participate.
This year is shaping up to be a dramatic one for climate tech investors.
Before I undertake the hard task of predicting where the crypto industry will go in 2025, let’s take a minute to recall where it has been.
With Donald Trump’s re-election as President of the United States, debates have reignited about the potential impact on markets, trade, and the global economy. The new administration has promised deregulation, tax cuts and a focus on energy independence.
I expect three major innovation cycles to dramatically affect our world in the next decade, with impacts comparable to steam engines, electricity, automobiles, and even the internet. Every new invention helps us explore even further.
Treasuries were mixed in thin trading as traders absorbed the prospect of a less aggressive path ahead for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and priced in greater risk for US long-term debt.
The new year will start with plenty of intrigue, especially in manufacturing, aerospace and logistics, the area where I hunt for interesting storylines about how companies navigate opportunities and pitfalls.
We look back on six themes that defined another eventful year.
Last week’s market volatility was not surprising for readers of these commentaries, as I anticipated a jarring adjustment to readouts from the Fed Dot Plot that suggested less rate cuts in 2025.
US crude exports to China plunged by almost half this year as shifts in the nation’s economy weighed on demand and it bought more barrels from other countries including Russia and Iran.
If you happen to be a Bitcoin skeptic, you’re not alone. A recent Pew Research survey found that 63% of Americans are not confident in the reliability or safety of cryptocurrencies in general.
Has the U.S. economy diverged from the global economy, or are a lot of economic canaries in coalmines keeling over and warning the U.S. is soon to catch down?
Forced to seek a government rescue barely a year ago, Siemens Energy AG was an unlikely candidate for Europe’s best performing stock of 2024.
I must confess, I have been aware of quantum computing for quite some time, but it was one of those things that always seemed far off. It’s now getting much closer.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in November and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.1% year-over-year.
Private credit firms want more than corporate lending. The largest are laying the groundwork to finance everything from auto loans and residential mortgages to chip manufacturing and data centers in an effort to swell the size of the market by the trillions.
Taxes are on my mind. Do I factor in whether a dividend is considered qualified or ordinary when making my recommendations?
The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) recently blocked the merger of Albertson’s and Kroger, which are the two largest stand-alone grocery chains.
A conversation with our stock selection team, part two.
Brent Olson and Thomas Ross, fixed income portfolio managers, believe that high yield bonds offer comfortable driving for now, but investors might need to negotiate more difficult terrain later in 2025.
Surprises most often are hiding in plain sight. Being aware and prepared with a plan for the unexpected are keys to achieving goals.
VettaFi discusses the significant improvement in MLPs over the last decade.
Energy is everything. Or, if Einstein was right, you and I are just energy in material form. Accelerate us to lightspeed squared and we might become something else.
The clouds hanging over Boeing’s operations finally appear to be clearing.
"Trump Trade 2.0" fueled U.S. equity and digital asset rallies, while real assets faltered under a strong dollar.
To most of us, a power plant is a source of electricity. To Exxon Mobil Corp., it’s a machine that converts natural gas into money. And this is a propitious time for doing that.
In the two years since ChatGPT burst onto the scene, artificial intelligence has come to dominate investor consciousness more than any other technological breakthrough in the past two decades.
Republicans have lashed out at the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a landmark package of incentives for clean energy, since it was passed two years ago.
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
An enduring image from 2024 will be the capture of the SpaceX booster rocket by the Mechazilla robot arms on its return to Earth. This achievement served as a powerful metaphor for the year: the improbable not only became possible but redefined expectations.
Better than expected economic data in November appears to be thwarting the FOMC's efforts to engineer lower short-term interest rates.
Riverfront's stock selection team performs analysis on individual equities that provides useful insights into how we position our portfolios.
There are not many attractive opportunities in the US large-cap space. History suggests the market is overdue for a correction.
Alphabet Inc.’s Google is investing in mega energy parks that will generate renewable power as the company races to fuel its data centers.
Just a few short years (months?) ago, few would have believed it possible. But it happened: Bitcoin has traded above $100,000 for the first time ever.
Investment themes are highly dynamic, shouldn’t your investment process be too? Learn about a systematic framework to help with identifying and investing across the themes driving markets.
U.S. policies are set for a major reshaping as full Republican control takes hold in 2025.
Getting a stay of execution doesn’t mean you’re no longer on death row.
In the port city of Duluth, Minnesota, local activists and Washington-based groups are coalescing to scrutinize — and possibly stall — a $6.2 billion acquisition of a power utility led by Global Infrastructure Partners.
If you thought the detention and subsequent release of Resolute Mining Ltd.’s chief executive by the government of Mali two weeks ago was a one-off, you would have been wrong.
The next few years are set to see a significant expansion in global LNG export capacity, led by North America and Qatar.
While the economy helped President Trump win a second term, it also created expectations that could prove difficult to meet.
Donald Trump’s tariff barrage may trigger a response from the Federal Reserve that the new president won’t like.
Energy
The US Gas Comeback Is Real
New Yorkers bowing their heads into a cutting wind is typically a bullish sign for natural gas prices, and this January is no exception.
The Definitive Guide to Where the US Has Squeezed Russia’s Oil Flows the Hardest
The latest US sanctions on oil tankers hauling Russian petroleum look set to cause severe disruption across the nation’s export machine, with some of Moscow’s flows at risk of a near wipeout if history is any guide.
Tariffs, Tempests, Turnarounds: What’s Next for Renewable Energy?
A look at how the renewable energy opportunity may and may not change.
Trump Team Readies Oil Sanctions Plan for Russia Deal, Iran Squeeze
Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are crafting a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic accord in the coming months while at the same time squeezing Iran and Venezuela, people familiar with the matter said.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: January 17, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 17, 2025 at 4.61%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.27% and the 30-year note ended at 4.84%.
A US ETF Split Surge in Q4 2024: Digging Into the Data and What It Means for Investors
Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Up 0.1% in December
Nominal retail sales in December were up 0.45% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.92% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.06% MoM and up 1.00% YoY.
Wall Street Has Best CPI Day Since at Least 2023: Markets Wrap
Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief after a surprise slowdown in inflation spurred a stock rally and a plunge in bond yields, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve is on track to keep cutting rates this year.
Uncertainty Is Certain
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: December 2024
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Ticks Up to 2.9% in December
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
2025 Outlook: Run It Back
The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.
Europe Moves Further Away From Russian Gas
Most of us like to ring in the new year with fresh energy. The Europeans appear to have made good on this resolution.
Gasoline Prices: WTIC Rises to 4-Month High
Gas prices were unchanged this past week while WTIC rose for a third straight week to its highest level in four months. As of January 13th, the price of regular and premium gas were unchanged from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $77.30, up 5.1% from last week.
Catastrophe’s Thin Red Line
“Risk,” according to London Business School’s Elroy Dimson, “means that more things can happen than will happen.” Serhii Plokhy’s Chernobyl Roulette provides the reader with a compelling demonstration of that dictum.
Economic Resilience Meets “Higher for Longer” Rates
As we kick off 2025, the economic landscape showcased a strong economy and resilient job market even as higher interest rates weigh on market sentiment. This week’s data underscore the delicate interplay between inflation expectations, real growth, and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.
Private Credit Outlook: Expanding the Universe
The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.
US Reliance on Saudi Oil Is Nearing Its Endgame
For decades, one of Saudi Arabia’s most strategic overseas outposts was a little-known office in New York City that coordinated its oil sales to American clients.
Treasuries Selloff Ripples Through World Markets After Jobs Data
Treasuries extended their drop after Friday’s blowout employment report strengthened speculation that the Federal Reserve is poised to pause its interest-rate cuts for virtually all of this year.
The Top 10 U.S. Aerospace and Defense Contractors
The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.
A Partly Cloudy Year
Rough times are coming, yes, but I think we have at least 12 good months before the worst gets here. Let’s look at some of the reasons why things should be okay and then look at some of the potential problems.
Energy Sector Goes From S&P 500’s ‘Worst to First’ in 2025 Start
Energy is the star sector of the S&P 500 Index in the early days of 2025, shaking off two consecutive years when it was a market laggard, and gaining despite Wall Street’s dim outlook for oil and gas stocks.
On Bubble Watch
Many people these days are on heightened alert for bubbles, and I’m often asked whether there’s a bubble surrounding the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the handful of stocks that have been leading it.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: December Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. December saw a 256,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment ticked down to 4.1%.
Outlook 2025: Planning for Growth and Embracing Change
After another resilient year for the US economy, we look ahead to the new year.
With New Risks Surfacing, How Should Investors Position Portfolios in 2025?
US equities were up notably in 2024, due to a strong economy, accelerating earnings growth, US election results, and AI/mega-cap strength.
Bankers Need the Right Trump Outcome to Justify Stock Optimism
US investment banks have little room for error in their upcoming full-year results.
A Necessary Tool for Income Investors… Especially Now
Since dividend investing can be boiled down to a single strategy—generating income—you might assume we don’t need a toolbox full of tools. We know that’s not true.
The Four Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the December 31, 2024 close.
Google’s Most Serious Rival Isn’t Microsoft. It’s a Startup
The AI boom of the past two years has largely been a two-horse race. Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Microsoft Corp.-funded OpenAI have duked it out for customers, while Amazon.com Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. have nibbled at the margins for market share.
Bitcoin Is Not a Nothing, But Not a Something Either
A few weeks ago, a reader emailed to challenge what he described as our “cautionary, skeptical and net negative” stance on Bitcoin.
Pressing for Yet More
On December 6, the S&P 500 set the most extreme level of valuations on record, exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks on measures that we find best-correlated with actual, subsequent 10-12 year S&P 500 total returns across a century of market cycles.
Keep These Investment Themes In Mind For 2025
For 2025 and beyond, a few particular global and industry trends can offer attractive long-term returns for advisors and investors alike.
Don’t Forget Commodity ETF Exposure in 2025
It’s important that investors remember to rebalance their commodity ETF exposure, particularly as equity ETFs had a strong year in 2024.
S&P Global Services PMI: Reaches 33-Month High in December
The December U.S. services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 56.8, the highest level since March 2022. The latest reading came in below the forecast of 58.5 but keeps the index in expansion territory for the 23rd straight month.
Privatize the USPS? Not in an Era of Crony Capitalism
President-elect Donald Trump is said to be interested in the privatization of the US Postal Service, a prospect that also appeals to his DOGE project and its allies in Congress.
AI Frenzy Drove the S&P 500’s Best Two-Year Gains Since the Dot-Com Era
Stocks rallied in 2024, delivering a second consecutive year of gains exceeding 20%, as investors embraced cooling inflation, falling interest rates and the prospect of lower corporate taxes under a second Trump administration.
A Controversial Start
Most people don’t pay much attention to the political process, either local or federal. This year I think it is something we should all be paying attention to as it might affect our various lives.
Biden Bars Offshore Oil Drilling in US Atlantic and Pacific
President Joe Biden is indefinitely blocking offshore oil and gas development in more than 625 million acres of US coastal waters, warning that drilling there is simply “not worth the risks” and “unnecessary” to meet the nation’s energy needs.
QuantStreet January 2025 Letter: Trump-Trade Reversal
After a strong November 2024, markets were generally down in December. The S&P 500 index was down 2.3%, while energy, small caps, value stocks, and REITs performed considerably worse.
Equity Outlook: Preparing for Profound Policy-Driven Change
Political uncertainty and volatility create fertile ground for active investors to find companies that can successfully navigate a new era.
Tech Investing in 2025: Emerging Trends and Market Opportunities
Gain insights into 2025’s top tech trends and market opportunities, and what experienced investors should consider for smart tech investments.
How Climate Volatility Is Redefining Commodity Markets
Although the general public might not pay much attention to such price swings, they still leave a serious impact on global trade and investment.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Tough End to 2024
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 49.4 in December from 49.7 in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of worsening conditions in the manufacturing sector. The latest reading was above the forecasted reading of 48.3.
S&P 500 Records Its Second Straight Year of 20%-Plus Gains
December's market activity highlights the need for caution in the near term.
Treasury Yields Long-Term Perspective - December 2024
As of December 31, 2024, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
10 Predictions for 2025
Investors continue to enjoy the bull market but remain somewhat nervous about valuation. Policy uncertainty is higher than usual, in part because there are so many policy changes at the same time.
Dissecting Our Discipline
All portfolio managers practice a stock-picking discipline in which they make choices. Growth stock investors attempt to predict which companies will grow the most in the future and compare the growth they expect to what they have to pay to participate.
Where the Smart Climate Tech Venture Money Is Going in 2025
This year is shaping up to be a dramatic one for climate tech investors.
A Crypto Optimist’s Guide for 2025
Before I undertake the hard task of predicting where the crypto industry will go in 2025, let’s take a minute to recall where it has been.
Strategies for Investing Under the New Administration: Insights and Opportunities
With Donald Trump’s re-election as President of the United States, debates have reignited about the potential impact on markets, trade, and the global economy. The new administration has promised deregulation, tax cuts and a focus on energy independence.
Live Free and Don't Die
I expect three major innovation cycles to dramatically affect our world in the next decade, with impacts comparable to steam engines, electricity, automobiles, and even the internet. Every new invention helps us explore even further.
Treasuries Trade Mixed, With 30-Year Yield Near 2024 Highs
Treasuries were mixed in thin trading as traders absorbed the prospect of a less aggressive path ahead for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and priced in greater risk for US long-term debt.
Boeing Headlines Industrial Prospects and Pitfalls in 2025
The new year will start with plenty of intrigue, especially in manufacturing, aerospace and logistics, the area where I hunt for interesting storylines about how companies navigate opportunities and pitfalls.
Reflections on 2024
We look back on six themes that defined another eventful year.
2025 Outlook: Moderated Returns, A Rotation Possible
Last week’s market volatility was not surprising for readers of these commentaries, as I anticipated a jarring adjustment to readouts from the Fed Dot Plot that suggested less rate cuts in 2025.
US Oil Exports to China Dwindle as Demand Wanes, Buying Shifts
US crude exports to China plunged by almost half this year as shifts in the nation’s economy weighed on demand and it bought more barrels from other countries including Russia and Iran.
BlackRock Says Bitcoin Deserves a Spot in Your Portfolio
If you happen to be a Bitcoin skeptic, you’re not alone. A recent Pew Research survey found that 63% of Americans are not confident in the reliability or safety of cryptocurrencies in general.
Global Conditions Portend a Catch-Down in America
Has the U.S. economy diverged from the global economy, or are a lot of economic canaries in coalmines keeling over and warning the U.S. is soon to catch down?
Europe’s Hottest Stock Has an American Architect
Forced to seek a government rescue barely a year ago, Siemens Energy AG was an unlikely candidate for Europe’s best performing stock of 2024.
Quantum Supremacy
I must confess, I have been aware of quantum computing for quite some time, but it was one of those things that always seemed far off. It’s now getting much closer.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.2% in November
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in November and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.1% year-over-year.
Private Credit Plots Expansion in Bid for $40 Trillion Prize
Private credit firms want more than corporate lending. The largest are laying the groundwork to finance everything from auto loans and residential mortgages to chip manufacturing and data centers in an effort to swell the size of the market by the trillions.
In an Uncertain World, There’s 1 Sure Thing
Taxes are on my mind. Do I factor in whether a dividend is considered qualified or ordinary when making my recommendations?
Don’t Trust Antitrust
The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) recently blocked the merger of Albertson’s and Kroger, which are the two largest stand-alone grocery chains.
Don’t Forget About Growth!
A conversation with our stock selection team, part two.
High Yield Bonds Outlook: Taking the Scenic Route in 2025
Brent Olson and Thomas Ross, fixed income portfolio managers, believe that high yield bonds offer comfortable driving for now, but investors might need to negotiate more difficult terrain later in 2025.
Top Five Surprises for 2025
Surprises most often are hiding in plain sight. Being aware and prepared with a plan for the unexpected are keys to achieving goals.
Now vs. Then: Why MLPs are a Better Investment Today
VettaFi discusses the significant improvement in MLPs over the last decade.
Demanding Energy
Energy is everything. Or, if Einstein was right, you and I are just energy in material form. Accelerate us to lightspeed squared and we might become something else.
Boeing Resumes Production as the Airline Industry Prepares for a Record-Breaking 2025
The clouds hanging over Boeing’s operations finally appear to be clearing.
Monthly Market Recap: Trumpmania 2.0
"Trump Trade 2.0" fueled U.S. equity and digital asset rallies, while real assets faltered under a strong dollar.
Exxon's AI Power Play Aims to Beat Nuclear
To most of us, a power plant is a source of electricity. To Exxon Mobil Corp., it’s a machine that converts natural gas into money. And this is a propitious time for doing that.
Big Tech Is Betting on AI. Should You?
In the two years since ChatGPT burst onto the scene, artificial intelligence has come to dominate investor consciousness more than any other technological breakthrough in the past two decades.
The Future of the Inflation Reduction Act
Republicans have lashed out at the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a landmark package of incentives for clean energy, since it was passed two years ago.
Sector Views: Monthly Stock Sector Outlook
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
2025 Annual Global Market Outlook: The Mechazilla Moment
An enduring image from 2024 will be the capture of the SpaceX booster rocket by the Mechazilla robot arms on its return to Earth. This achievement served as a powerful metaphor for the year: the improbable not only became possible but redefined expectations.
Better Than Expected Economic Data in November
Better than expected economic data in November appears to be thwarting the FOMC's efforts to engineer lower short-term interest rates.
Value Investing in the US and Beyond
Riverfront's stock selection team performs analysis on individual equities that provides useful insights into how we position our portfolios.
Valuations Have Richened, But Areas Outside of Large-Caps Remain Attractive
There are not many attractive opportunities in the US large-cap space. History suggests the market is overdue for a correction.
Google Invests in Venture to Build Energy Parks for Data Centers
Alphabet Inc.’s Google is investing in mega energy parks that will generate renewable power as the company races to fuel its data centers.
Bitcoin’s Rise to $100,000 Signals Global Adoption Shift
Just a few short years (months?) ago, few would have believed it possible. But it happened: Bitcoin has traded above $100,000 for the first time ever.
Thematic Investing: Tomorrow’s Themes, Today
Investment themes are highly dynamic, shouldn’t your investment process be too? Learn about a systematic framework to help with identifying and investing across the themes driving markets.
An Investor’s Guide to Potential U.S. Policy Changes in 2025
U.S. policies are set for a major reshaping as full Republican control takes hold in 2025.
GM Is on a Road to Nowhere in China
Getting a stay of execution doesn’t mean you’re no longer on death row.
BlackRock’s Big Bet on GIP Puts Fink’s Firm in Local Spotlight
In the port city of Duluth, Minnesota, local activists and Washington-based groups are coalescing to scrutinize — and possibly stall — a $6.2 billion acquisition of a power utility led by Global Infrastructure Partners.
Africans Demand a Bigger Share of Their Natural Resources Wealth
If you thought the detention and subsequent release of Resolute Mining Ltd.’s chief executive by the government of Mali two weeks ago was a one-off, you would have been wrong.
Who Will Need the Next Wave of LNG Export Capacity?
The next few years are set to see a significant expansion in global LNG export capacity, led by North America and Qatar.
Monthly Global Economic Report
While the economy helped President Trump win a second term, it also created expectations that could prove difficult to meet.
Tariff Inflation Will Likely Be Transitory, But Fed Won’t Say So
Donald Trump’s tariff barrage may trigger a response from the Federal Reserve that the new president won’t like.