Join the experts at VictoryShares and VettaFi for an in-depth exploration of FCF and how it can be used to maximize your portfolio’s potential.
In 2025, two titans of technology stand at the forefront of innovation: quantum computing and robotics. Each offers a vision of a future transformed, where the impossible becomes achievable and industries are redefined.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that President Donald Trump signed into law in December 2017 imposed a $10,000 limit on the amount of state and local taxes that can be deducted on a federal income tax return.
The latest US sanctions on oil tankers hauling Russian petroleum look set to cause severe disruption across the nation’s export machine, with some of Moscow’s flows at risk of a near wipeout if history is any guide.
A look at how the renewable energy opportunity may and may not change.
There are a few things it makes sense to get a start on when a new year begins. One is tax-loss harvesting.
Strong U.S. economic data has spurred a strong rise in Treasury yields but a tepid response in the stock market. Uncertainty likely will continue in coming months.
As we close the chapter on Biden’s presidency, we take a moment to reflect on his legacy.
At CES 2025, Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, offered a compelling vision of AI’s future—one that combines bold technological advances with practical applications.
The Federal Reserve faces a reckoning: Sometime soon, it’ll probably have to subject its stress tests to public scrutiny, highlighting serious flaws in what has become its primary tool for ensuring the resilience of the banking system.
New policies could disrupt markets, but high starting yields and strong demand for income should provide ballast.
Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are crafting a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic accord in the coming months while at the same time squeezing Iran and Venezuela, people familiar with the matter said.
BlackRock Inc. is tapping into a fast-growing corner of the options-powered ETF world with an offering aimed at Wall Street investors bracing for the S&P 500 to tread water.
First came the raid on a Mexico City shopping center known for selling Chinese-made clothing, toys and electronics
Microsoft Corp. has plowed tens of billions of dollars into artificial intelligence. With its stock struggling, the key question is how quickly those investments can prove to be successful.
Canada’s stock market — where returns have lagged the US for two straight years — might offer investors protection against a downturn in US stocks, a Toronto-based asset manager says.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits ticked down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.483 million in December. This marks a 0.7% decrease from November and a 3.1% decline compared to one year ago.
There will be more humanoid robots than people by 2040, Elon Musk recently bragged.
With all eyes focused on the White House, investors must decide what the incoming President’s policies will mean for markets and how to position accordingly. Ahead of the inauguration, we asked our portfolio managers what they think should be front of mind.
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.
Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.
Reflecting ongoing uncertainty around inflation and the trajectory of monetary policy, yield volatility posed challenges in 2024. Yet it also highlighted the importance of tax-efficient strategies like loss harvesting in fixed income portfolios.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares an outlook for U.S. growth, inflation, employment and interest rates.
The Social Security Fairness Act is expected to enhance benefits for many starting in 2024. Our Bill Cass explains the significance of the new law.
While stocks can move higher, the bond market will continue to matter. Higher rates suggest that equity leadership may continue to reside in companies that are relatively rate insensitive.
Natural disasters test—but don’t break—municipalities’ resilience.
As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors.
Despite challenges, the U.S. market saw strong returns in 2024 with a "soft landing" for the economy, leading to key questions and emerging themes for investors in 2025.
For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, the VettaFi writers debate the case for using sector ETFs to make bets on the new market regime.
In December, nominal home values increased for a 21st straight months to a new all-time high. However, once we adjust for inflation, "real" home values declined for an 8th consecutive month to their lowest level since June 2021.
Earlier this week we posted an update on the median household income for the 50 states and DC which includes annual data from 1984 to 2023. Let's now look at the actual purchasing power of those median incomes. For this adjustment, we're using the "C2ER Cost of Living Index" produced by C2ER, the Council for Community and Economic Research.
Nominal retail sales in December were up 0.45% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.92% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.06% MoM and up 1.00% YoY.
Builder confidence inched up in January to its highest level in 9 months on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 47 this month, up one point from December. The latest reading came was above the forecast of 45.
Whether you’re speaking with Europe’s largest money manager, Australia’s giant pension funds, or a cash-rich insurer in Japan, there’s a resounding message you’ll hear when it comes to US Treasuries: They are still hard to beat.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December revealed headline sales were up 0.4% last month. Additionally, November retail sales were revised higher to 0.8%. The latest reading was lower than the expected 0.6% monthly growth in consumer spending.
Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief after a surprise slowdown in inflation spurred a stock rally and a plunge in bond yields, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve is on track to keep cutting rates this year.
The latest updates on the labor market and consumer prices show President-elect Donald Trump inherits an economy where inflation is poised to return to the Federal Reserve’s target later this year.
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumped to its highest level since April 2021 as manufacturing activity increased overall. In January, the index rose to 44.3 from -10.9 in December, the largest monthly increase since June 2020. The latest reading was much higher than the forecast of -5.0.
BlackRock Inc. attracted an annual record of $641 billion in client cash, underlining the firm’s global reach across public and, increasingly, private assets as it integrates multibillion-dollar acquisitions and reshapes its leadership.
In the week ending January 11th, initial jobless claims rose or the first time in five weeks. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 217,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was worse than the 210,000 forecast.
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Donald Trump and Republicans support sweeping changes that could affect the economy, markets and investors. But narrow margins in Congress could complicate that agenda.
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
Outsourced trading is a growing trend among asset managers, with recent headlines illustrating how firms are reassessing their approach to how trading fits in their broader strategic plans.
The threat of tariffs is ramping up ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. This is pushing up silver and copper prices.
This series has been updated to include the December release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,595, down 6.7% from over 50 years ago.
The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.
Economic data and policies out of China are typically delayed until mid-March. Stock volatility may be prevalent until initiatives are clarified after the Lunar New Year.
Nvidia Corp.’s $3 trillion run-up in market value in the two years since ChatGPT helped trigger an AI frenzy is bigger than any stock rally in history in such a short time span.
One of the longest, most technical and, as it turns out, most inconsequential public-policy debates of the 21st century was about net neutrality.
On top of the human tragedy they’re still inflicting, the Los Angeles wildfires are exposing a gap between what people thought their homes were worth and what they’ll actually get from insurance companies when those houses have been reduced to ash. Potentially thousands of homeowners are learning it won’t be nearly enough.
Manufacturing activity declined in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing January survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions was fell nearly 15 points to -12.6. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 2.7.
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
The strong performance of large-cap stocks over the past decade has left the market exceptionally top-heavy. By some measures, stock market capitalization has never been more concentrated among a handful of large stocks as today.
Engaging up front with four key workstreams may smooth the process of adding a solution.
The calendar page has turned, and that means we have the opportunity to get 2025 off to a good start.
I publish an updated version of my New Year “investor” resolutions yearly. The purpose of the process is to take an annual inventory of what I did and did not do over the last year to improve my portfolio management practices.
US equities had a stellar 2024, with the S&P 500 up 25%, but the year ended on a softer note. The sharp rise in bond yields has caught the market's eye
Direct indexing has been around for more than 30 years, yet many people still don’t know what it is or how it continues to grow and evolve.
The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.
Most of us like to ring in the new year with fresh energy. The Europeans appear to have made good on this resolution.
Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.
Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and nearly one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.
Gas prices were unchanged this past week while WTIC rose for a third straight week to its highest level in four months. As of January 13th, the price of regular and premium gas were unchanged from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $77.30, up 5.1% from last week.
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of December, the labor force participation rate is at 62.5%, unchanged from the previous month.
Wall Street was set for a higher open on Tuesday, though a renewed rise in Treasury yields damped the sentiment boost offered earlier by the prospect of gradually imposed US trade tariffs.
Ten years ago, Research Affiliates launched the Asset Allocation Interactive online tool, making our CMEs freely available to the public. With one full cycle complete, we can see what has worked well and where we can improve.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for December. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 256,000.
What happens when you simply don’t like a colleague but you need to work side-by-side with them every single day?
We need to face the reality that we’ve chosen a system that prioritizes lower taxes over centralized health care.
For firms chasing digital empowerment it’s especially important to pay attention to the first 60 days of onboarding with a new technology and tech provider.
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged to its highest level in over six years last month, coming in at 105.1. December's reading marks the 2nd consecutive month the index has been above the historical average of 97.9 and was higher than the forecast of 101.3.
Managing Director, Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills looks at how several of the top market-relevant Washington DC issues could play out in 2025.
We identify four categories of risks to the growth outlook.
On the inaugural edition of Market Week in Review for 2025, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, discussed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as well as the latest batch of U.S. and global economic data.
The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.
The December PMI report, released on January 5, 2025, indicates that the U.S. services sector continued to grow, albeit at a measured pace, suggesting resilience in certain areas of the economy.
Every new year brings with it a new opportunity to stop for a moment, revisit resolutions, and refresh outlooks.
Two of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through January 13, 2025. Germany's DAXK is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 0.54% while France's CAC 40 is the only other index in positive territory with a year to date gain of 0.20%.
Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.
The question asked of me most often recently: "Why are bond yields rising?" After verbally answering it plenty of times, it's time to put my answer in writing for everyone else to see.
Markets are coming off back-to-back gains of more than 20% each on an annual basis. The chances of a hat trick in 2025 are slim to none.
I’m not ready to concede that active bests the benchmarks by adding what I consider alpha. For example, “positioning the fund to have more credit risk than its benchmark” is a risk premium much in the same way that the equity risk premium produced returns over the risk-free rate. The credit risk premium may be worth it, but that’s beta, not alpha.
Let's take a close look at December's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 82.7% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.3% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
When and how will new policies take shape?
The US labor market has remained relatively strong, but the trend over the last year or so has been one of normalization back to the pre-pandemic levels.
Multiple jobholders account for 5.3% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.
For decades, one of Saudi Arabia’s most strategic overseas outposts was a little-known office in New York City that coordinated its oil sales to American clients.
Smart Beta
Diversifying Mag 7 Concentration Risks with a Free Cash Flow Approach
Join the experts at VictoryShares and VettaFi for an in-depth exploration of FCF and how it can be used to maximize your portfolio’s potential.
Titans of Tomorrow: Quantum Computing and Robotics on the Brink of Revolution
In 2025, two titans of technology stand at the forefront of innovation: quantum computing and robotics. Each offers a vision of a future transformed, where the impossible becomes achievable and industries are redefined.
Raising the SALT Cap Is Supposed to Benefit Whom, Exactly?
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that President Donald Trump signed into law in December 2017 imposed a $10,000 limit on the amount of state and local taxes that can be deducted on a federal income tax return.
The Definitive Guide to Where the US Has Squeezed Russia’s Oil Flows the Hardest
The latest US sanctions on oil tankers hauling Russian petroleum look set to cause severe disruption across the nation’s export machine, with some of Moscow’s flows at risk of a near wipeout if history is any guide.
Tariffs, Tempests, Turnarounds: What’s Next for Renewable Energy?
A look at how the renewable energy opportunity may and may not change.
Direct Indexing: An Easy Way to Tax-Loss Harvest All Year Round
There are a few things it makes sense to get a start on when a new year begins. One is tax-loss harvesting.
Schwab Market Perspective: Markets vs. Economy
Strong U.S. economic data has spurred a strong rise in Treasury yields but a tepid response in the stock market. Uncertainty likely will continue in coming months.
Reviewing Market and Economic Performance During the Biden Administration
As we close the chapter on Biden’s presidency, we take a moment to reflect on his legacy.
The Future of AI: How NVIDIA’s Vision Is Shaping Our World
At CES 2025, Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, offered a compelling vision of AI’s future—one that combines bold technological advances with practical applications.
The Fed’s Stress Tests Are Facing a Stress Test
The Federal Reserve faces a reckoning: Sometime soon, it’ll probably have to subject its stress tests to public scrutiny, highlighting serious flaws in what has become its primary tool for ensuring the resilience of the banking system.
2025 Credit Outlook: On Firm Ground, Despite Shifting Political Sands
New policies could disrupt markets, but high starting yields and strong demand for income should provide ballast.
Trump Team Readies Oil Sanctions Plan for Russia Deal, Iran Squeeze
Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are crafting a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic accord in the coming months while at the same time squeezing Iran and Venezuela, people familiar with the matter said.
BlackRock’s Amped Up ETF Taps Into Wall Street’s Stock Anxiety
BlackRock Inc. is tapping into a fast-growing corner of the options-powered ETF world with an offering aimed at Wall Street investors bracing for the S&P 500 to tread water.
Mexico Cozies Up to Trump With Crackdown on China Trade
First came the raid on a Mexico City shopping center known for selling Chinese-made clothing, toys and electronics
Microsoft’s Stock Revival Hinges on Showing Growth From AI Binge
Microsoft Corp. has plowed tens of billions of dollars into artificial intelligence. With its stock struggling, the key question is how quickly those investments can prove to be successful.
Canada a ‘Good Place to Hide’ If US Stocks Drop, Contrarian Says
Canada’s stock market — where returns have lagged the US for two straight years — might offer investors protection against a downturn in US stocks, a Toronto-based asset manager says.
Building Permits Tick Down 0.7% in December
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits ticked down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.483 million in December. This marks a 0.7% decrease from November and a 3.1% decline compared to one year ago.
Elon Musk’s Robotopia Will Bloom in Aging Europe
There will be more humanoid robots than people by 2040, Elon Musk recently bragged.
Investment Considerations for the Second Trump Presidency
With all eyes focused on the White House, investors must decide what the incoming President’s policies will mean for markets and how to position accordingly. Ahead of the inauguration, we asked our portfolio managers what they think should be front of mind.
A Deep Dive on the Recent Spike in U.S. Treasury Yields
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.
A US ETF Split Surge in Q4 2024: Digging Into the Data and What It Means for Investors
Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.
Is Your Fixed Income Manager Delivering Tax Alpha?
Reflecting ongoing uncertainty around inflation and the trajectory of monetary policy, yield volatility posed challenges in 2024. Yet it also highlighted the importance of tax-efficient strategies like loss harvesting in fixed income portfolios.
US Economic Outlook: Pre-Season Prospects
The Northern Trust Economics team shares an outlook for U.S. growth, inflation, employment and interest rates.
Social Security Changes Mean Higher Benefits for Certain Public Workers
The Social Security Fairness Act is expected to enhance benefits for many starting in 2024. Our Bill Cass explains the significance of the new law.
Will Higher Rates Doom Stocks? Not Necessarily
While stocks can move higher, the bond market will continue to matter. Higher rates suggest that equity leadership may continue to reside in companies that are relatively rate insensitive.
Assessing the Potential Impact of California’s Wildfires on Municipal Bonds
Natural disasters test—but don’t break—municipalities’ resilience.
Balancing Caution and Optimism: Navigating 2025’s Market Dynamics
As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors.
2024 and 2025 Investment Insights: The Magnificent 7 Stocks, Sector Growth, and Emerging Themes
Despite challenges, the U.S. market saw strong returns in 2024 with a "soft landing" for the economy, leading to key questions and emerging themes for investors in 2025.
Bull vs. Bear: Using Sector ETFs to Make Bets on the New Regime
For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, the VettaFi writers debate the case for using sector ETFs to make bets on the new market regime.
Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Value Falls to 3.5 Year Low
In December, nominal home values increased for a 21st straight months to a new all-time high. However, once we adjust for inflation, "real" home values declined for an 8th consecutive month to their lowest level since June 2021.
Median Household Purchasing Power for the 50 States and DC: 2023 Update
Earlier this week we posted an update on the median household income for the 50 states and DC which includes annual data from 1984 to 2023. Let's now look at the actual purchasing power of those median incomes. For this adjustment, we're using the "C2ER Cost of Living Index" produced by C2ER, the Council for Community and Economic Research.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Up 0.1% in December
Nominal retail sales in December were up 0.45% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.92% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.06% MoM and up 1.00% YoY.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Inches to 9-Month High in January
Builder confidence inched up in January to its highest level in 9 months on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 47 this month, up one point from December. The latest reading came was above the forecast of 45.
US Bond ‘Death Spiral’ Risk Brushed Aside by Foreign Funds
Whether you’re speaking with Europe’s largest money manager, Australia’s giant pension funds, or a cash-rich insurer in Japan, there’s a resounding message you’ll hear when it comes to US Treasuries: They are still hard to beat.
Retail Sales Up 0.4% in December, Lower Than Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December revealed headline sales were up 0.4% last month. Additionally, November retail sales were revised higher to 0.8%. The latest reading was lower than the expected 0.6% monthly growth in consumer spending.
Wall Street Has Best CPI Day Since at Least 2023: Markets Wrap
Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief after a surprise slowdown in inflation spurred a stock rally and a plunge in bond yields, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve is on track to keep cutting rates this year.
The Inflation Genie Is Moving to the White House
The latest updates on the labor market and consumer prices show President-elect Donald Trump inherits an economy where inflation is poised to return to the Federal Reserve’s target later this year.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Jumps to Highest Level Since April 2021
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumped to its highest level since April 2021 as manufacturing activity increased overall. In January, the index rose to 44.3 from -10.9 in December, the largest monthly increase since June 2020. The latest reading was much higher than the forecast of -5.0.
BlackRock Gets Record Client Cash, Revamps Leadership Team
BlackRock Inc. attracted an annual record of $641 billion in client cash, underlining the firm’s global reach across public and, increasingly, private assets as it integrates multibillion-dollar acquisitions and reshapes its leadership.
Unemployment Claims Up 14K, Worse Than Expected
In the week ending January 11th, initial jobless claims rose or the first time in five weeks. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 217,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was worse than the 210,000 forecast.
Uncertainty Is Certain
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Bonds – The Dual Benefit
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
New Congress Faces Massive Policy Agenda
Donald Trump and Republicans support sweeping changes that could affect the economy, markets and investors. But narrow margins in Congress could complicate that agenda.
Transforming 2024 Insights Into 2025 Action
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Strategic Income Outlook: Magic 8-Ball Says, “Cannot Predict Now”
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
Why More Asset Managers Are Outsourcing or Co-sourcing Trading
Outsourced trading is a growing trend among asset managers, with recent headlines illustrating how firms are reassessing their approach to how trading fits in their broader strategic plans.
Tariff Threats Boost Silver & Copper Prices
The threat of tariffs is ramping up ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. This is pushing up silver and copper prices.
Real Middle Class Wages as of December 2024
This series has been updated to include the December release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,595, down 6.7% from over 50 years ago.
Median Household Income by State: 2023 Update
The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.
What's Ahead for China in 2025?
Economic data and policies out of China are typically delayed until mid-March. Stock volatility may be prevalent until initiatives are clarified after the Lunar New Year.
Nvidia’s $3 Trillion Rally Is On Edge, Wall Street Is Unfazed
Nvidia Corp.’s $3 trillion run-up in market value in the two years since ChatGPT helped trigger an AI frenzy is bigger than any stock rally in history in such a short time span.
So Long, Net Neutrality, and Good Riddance
One of the longest, most technical and, as it turns out, most inconsequential public-policy debates of the 21st century was about net neutrality.
The $2 Trillion Home Insurance Nightmare Is Getting Even Worse
On top of the human tragedy they’re still inflicting, the Los Angeles wildfires are exposing a gap between what people thought their homes were worth and what they’ll actually get from insurance companies when those houses have been reduced to ash. Potentially thousands of homeowners are learning it won’t be nearly enough.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Declines in January
Manufacturing activity declined in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing January survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions was fell nearly 15 points to -12.6. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 2.7.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Ticks Up to 2.9% in December
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
Slimming Down a Top-Heavy Market
The strong performance of large-cap stocks over the past decade has left the market exceptionally top-heavy. By some measures, stock market capitalization has never been more concentrated among a handful of large stocks as today.
Early Groundwork Is Key for Implementing Lifetime Income Solutions
Engaging up front with four key workstreams may smooth the process of adding a solution.
Tax Planning in 2025: Five Key Topics to Discuss With Your Clients Now
The calendar page has turned, and that means we have the opportunity to get 2025 off to a good start.
Investor Resolutions For 2025
I publish an updated version of my New Year “investor” resolutions yearly. The purpose of the process is to take an annual inventory of what I did and did not do over the last year to improve my portfolio management practices.
Bond Yields Surge’s Potential Impacts on the Equity Market
US equities had a stellar 2024, with the S&P 500 up 25%, but the year ended on a softer note. The sharp rise in bond yields has caught the market's eye
How Parametric Strives to Stay Ahead in Direct Indexing
Direct indexing has been around for more than 30 years, yet many people still don’t know what it is or how it continues to grow and evolve.
2025 Outlook: Run It Back
The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.
Europe Moves Further Away From Russian Gas
Most of us like to ring in the new year with fresh energy. The Europeans appear to have made good on this resolution.
Expect Innovation Led American Exceptionalism to Continue
Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.
Employment Trends for the 50+ Workforce: December 2024
Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and nearly one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.
Gasoline Prices: WTIC Rises to 4-Month High
Gas prices were unchanged this past week while WTIC rose for a third straight week to its highest level in four months. As of January 13th, the price of regular and premium gas were unchanged from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $77.30, up 5.1% from last week.
Long-Term Employment Trends by Age and Gender: December 2024
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of December, the labor force participation rate is at 62.5%, unchanged from the previous month.
Wall Street Set for Higher Open on Tariff Report
Wall Street was set for a higher open on Tuesday, though a renewed rise in Treasury yields damped the sentiment boost offered earlier by the prospect of gradually imposed US trade tariffs.
Asset Allocation Interactive at 10 Years: The Good, the Not Too Bad, and the Ugly
Ten years ago, Research Affiliates launched the Asset Allocation Interactive online tool, making our CMEs freely available to the public. With one full cycle complete, we can see what has worked well and where we can improve.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: December 2024
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for December. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 256,000.
How Do I Work With Someone I Don’t Like?
What happens when you simply don’t like a colleague but you need to work side-by-side with them every single day?
The Missing Piece in America’s Healthcare Debate
We need to face the reality that we’ve chosen a system that prioritizes lower taxes over centralized health care.
Make It or Break It: Why the First 60 Days of New Tech Adoption Are the Most Important
For firms chasing digital empowerment it’s especially important to pay attention to the first 60 days of onboarding with a new technology and tech provider.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Surges to Six-Year High
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged to its highest level in over six years last month, coming in at 105.1. December's reading marks the 2nd consecutive month the index has been above the historical average of 97.9 and was higher than the forecast of 101.3.
2025 Political Outlook
Managing Director, Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills looks at how several of the top market-relevant Washington DC issues could play out in 2025.
What We're Worrying About
We identify four categories of risks to the growth outlook.
Health Check: How Is the Global Economy Holding Up?
On the inaugural edition of Market Week in Review for 2025, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, discussed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as well as the latest batch of U.S. and global economic data.
Private Credit Outlook: Expanding the Universe
The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.
PMI Report Highlights: Inflation Pressures Persist Amid Services Sector Growth
The December PMI report, released on January 5, 2025, indicates that the U.S. services sector continued to grow, albeit at a measured pace, suggesting resilience in certain areas of the economy.
Market Predictions & ETF Ideas for a New Year
Every new year brings with it a new opportunity to stop for a moment, revisit resolutions, and refresh outlooks.
World Markets Watchlist: January 13, 2025
Two of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through January 13, 2025. Germany's DAXK is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 0.54% while France's CAC 40 is the only other index in positive territory with a year to date gain of 0.20%.
Median Household Incomes by Age Bracket: 1967-2023
Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.
Why Are Bond Yields Rising?
The question asked of me most often recently: "Why are bond yields rising?" After verbally answering it plenty of times, it's time to put my answer in writing for everyone else to see.
Chasing Alpha: Top Active Equity Strategies for 2025
Markets are coming off back-to-back gains of more than 20% each on an annual basis. The chances of a hat trick in 2025 are slim to none.
Examining the Case for Active Bond Investing
I’m not ready to concede that active bests the benchmarks by adding what I consider alpha. For example, “positioning the fund to have more credit risk than its benchmark” is a risk premium much in the same way that the equity risk premium produced returns over the risk-free rate. The credit risk premium may be worth it, but that’s beta, not alpha.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: December 2024
Let's take a close look at December's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 82.7% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.3% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Washington's Time Line
When and how will new policies take shape?
Labor Market Strong, But Normalization Continues
The US labor market has remained relatively strong, but the trend over the last year or so has been one of normalization back to the pre-pandemic levels.
Multiple Jobholders Account for 5.3% of All Employed
Multiple jobholders account for 5.3% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.
US Reliance on Saudi Oil Is Nearing Its Endgame
For decades, one of Saudi Arabia’s most strategic overseas outposts was a little-known office in New York City that coordinated its oil sales to American clients.