As President Donald Trump’s trade war continues, Canadian equities are poised to outperform their US counterparts, portfolio managers argue.
While many investors have been scared away from tech giants at the center of this year’s equity rout, the companies are likely to continue plowing money into buybacks that will offer at least one source of continuing support for the stocks.
Big US banks are navigating a choppy environment just two years after the last round of turmoil, this time with almost no one questioning the industry’s ability to ride out whatever is coming.
Many investors are wondering what to think of the volatility and uncertainty that has been pulsing through financial markets over the past few weeks.
Stock markets have been rattled by trade war tensions and economic uncertainty driven by US tariff policies. Yet history suggests that equities have usually performed well in the aftermath of peak market volatility.
A reintroduction of SLR relief to balance treasury market stability and systemic risk would likely produce several market effects.
BNY’s Ben Slavin provides an in-depth look at recent ETF trading and flows, and unpacks the latest on the ETF share class structure and product innovation. VettaFi’s Kirsten Chang highlights five noteworthy ETF launches.
Tesla Inc. investors reeling from one of the stock’s worst-ever quarters are once again looking for Elon Musk to inject excitement back into the firm when it reports results Tuesday, as profits slip and the much-awaited debut of a self-driving car remains months away.
If the US slides into recession, banks will be ready – at least according to commentary on their earnings calls last week.
Private equity investors will have to wait even longer before getting back their money back from older funds as global trade turmoil dims hopes of a deal revival, according to the head of Ares Management Corp.’s buyout business.
Emerging-market (EM) stocks might not seem an obvious choice for anxious investors during a trade war. But history suggests that past volatility peaks have created favorable moments to invest in EM stocks.
Tariff uncertainty, a weakening US dollar, and surging Treasury yields are flashing warning signs for investors. Explore how political risks, fiscal policy, and global volatility are reshaping capital flows and market confidence.
A fundamental lesson in finance is a security’s price should be the present value of all future cash flows. Cash flows typically consist of a regular string of dividend payments and an assumed liquidation value at the end of the time horizon.
Compare corporate and municipal bonds, including risks, returns, and tax benefits. Learn which bond type fits your investment goals.
U.S. defensives and international lead.a
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research, Todd Rosenbluth, discussed the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
Four of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through April 21, 2025. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.03%. Germany’s DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 5.35% while China's Shanghai is in third with a year to date gain of 0.88%.
Active management has not disappeared — it has simply evolved. Rather than focusing on outdated stock selection methodologies, today’s most effective active strategies center on active portfolio construction and dynamic asset allocation.
As we have learned repeatedly, the Fed will take extensive emergency measures if it perceives liquidity problems. Even above their congressional mandated objective of managing employment and prices, the Fed's top priority is preserving the banks.
Banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. can thank the White House’s aggressive disruptions on tariff policy and other issues for record hauls from equities trading in the first quarter, when market volatility began to surge.
Markets were rattled by tariff announcements in early April. Here are three takeaways for investors considering preferred securities, investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds.
In nominal terms, the yellow metal set multiple new all-time highs this week, exceeding $3,300 an ounce for the first time ever on Wednesday. And on an inflation-adjusted basis, gold also notched a new record price, surpassing the longstanding record set in 1980.
U.S. trade policy has evolved significantly in a matter of weeks.
The first quarter of 2025 marked a significant departure from the preceding two years, which had been characterized by an improving global economy and correspondingly positive market returns. Market performance in Q1 was dominated by abrupt, short-term policy shifts rather than longer-term economic trends, and tariffs became the foremost concern for market participants.
Less favorable seasonal technicals, increased focus on municipal-specific policy risks, and severe volatility spurred by higher-than-anticipated tariff increases weighed heavilyon sentiment and resulted in deeply negative total returns and significant underperformance versus Treasuries in March and early April.
Rapid U.S. policy changes pose challenges for investors accustomed to a global financial system anchored in U.S. markets and assets.
Banks blew Q1 earnings expectations out of the water, benefitting from high trading volumes, but CEO commentary remains cautious for 2025.
Right now we are in an incredibly complicated environment with regard to U.S. tariff policy gyrations and its whipsawing impact on global equity markets. One thing we can confidently assert is that however the trade negotiations play out, there will be higher tariffs and this will be negative for U.S. growth.
Canadians poured a record amount into US equities in February, even as a movement to boycott US products and vacations gained momentum.
This month’s panic-driven selling across municipal bonds — fueled by the boom in ETFs — is proving a mixed blessing for investors in a normally sedate market corner.
One day doesn’t make a trend, but wary small-caps investors may find some comfort in knowing the Russell 2000 Index jumped 8.50% on Wednesday
The yield on the 10-year note ended April 17, 2025 at 4.34%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.81% and the 30-year note ended at 4.80%.
While we remain open to changes in market conditions, as well as periodic “fast, furious, prone-to-failure” advances that can relieve the oversold “compression” produced by market losses, we are presently on high alert for a possibly abrupt and cascading market and economic dislocation in the weeks ahead.
KKR & Co. is eyeing one of the riskiest deals going right now — buying the owner of London’s creaking water and sewage system, Thames Water. Giving a private equity firm the chance to profit from fixing the mess Thames got into under past private ownership looks bad but makes sense.
Covered call strategies have been around for a very long time, but covered call ETFs have recently enjoyed a massive increase in popularity.
The month of April will unfortunately go down in financial market folklore as being one of the more noteworthy on record.
CIO Sean Taylor assesses a better-than-expected quarter for emerging markets and takes stock of the drivers that may support the asset class in what could be difficult months ahead for global markets.
If there’s one thing investors have learned in recent days, it’s that there’s no way to guess what America will do next. With its on-again, off-again tariffs, the US administration has demonstrated a rare and reckless willingness to shock markets.
JPMorgan's Jon Maier spoke with VettaFi about active management in the ETFs space approaching investing in the current environment.
Delta Air Lines Inc. and the parent of Frontier Airlines recently yanked earnings guidance for 2025, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon saying that he expects “to see more of that.”
In San Francisco’s financial district, the One Montgomery building evokes the opulence of America’s turn of the 20th century gilded age. With its Tuscan columns, marble staircases and bronze doors, the Renaissance Revival landmark once housed Crocker Bank, named after one of the tycoons who built the western portion of America’s first transcontinental railroad.
Swedish firm EQT AB received more than $10 billion in investor commitments for its latest pan-Asia private equity fund, putting it on track to reach its fundraising goal despite the market volatility.
Navigating market volatility can be challenging for investors. Our Bill Cass shares several tax planning strategies to consider.
Last week, the S&P 500 was up 5.7%, the strongest week for the market since November 2023.
While the US experiments with reordering the world’s trading system, uncertainty rises and volatility ensues. We are reminded of the delicate balance between safeguarding domestic interests and promoting a cooperative global trading system.
Nick Goetze discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
As we write this, stocks have bounced back as Trump retreated from electronic tariffs from China. Nevertheless, this was a remarkable week for markets with Trump’s tariff policy taking center stage for market stress across stocks, bonds and currencies.
While we continue to feel the U.S. has structural investment advantages, we are mindful that the scope of the current administration's policy shifts may present challenges to our sustained economic momentum.
The current market unrest over the potential for tariff increases and their impact is unpredictable. The volatility can be unnerving.
2025 has marked a striking reversal, with European stocks delivering exceptional returns that have handily surpassed US market performance.
SPY's recent surge of inflows showcases how advisors are using ETFs as crucial vehicles for navigating market volatility.
VettaFi’s Cinthia Murphy looks at several surprising ETF developments from a wild week in the markets. VistaShares CEO Adam Patti highlights the firm’s unique approach to ETFs, which includes the VistaShares Target Berkshire Select Income ETF (OMAH).
Markets have had a wild ride these past couple of weeks, alongside chaotic tariff-related news, with volatility (and its policy triggers) most elevated in the bond market.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth talked about the Neuberger Berman Commodity Strategy ETF (NBCM) with Money Life host Chuck Jaffe. The pair covered a range of topics related to the fund, providing investors with a deeper understanding of the ETF.
Wall Street on Monday finally caught a respite from the deep selloffs and unusually sharp swings that have raced through markets ever since President Donald Trump unleashed his global trade war.
On Monday, April 7, the S&P 500 dropped as much as 4.7% at the session low before whiplashing higher on reports of a potential tariff delay—closing the day up 3.4% from Friday’s close.
Swap spreads measure the difference between the interest rate on a swap and the yield on a Treasury bond with the same maturity.
On the evening before his presentation at the Exchange Conference last week, I sat down with Rob Arnott to discuss whether now is the time for smart beta to shine. Arnott is the founder and chair of Research Affiliates and is known as the “godfather of smart beta.”
If Trump is successful in ending — or at least significantly changing — the current global economic structure, the economy and geopolitics will change dramatically. Initially, this will be highly challenging from an investment perspective.
This may be the beginning of the long-awaited U.S. stock market crash, but even if it isn’t those near retirement need to protect themselves from sequence-of-return risk that can ruin the rest of their lives.
As with all decisions involving uncertainty, we want to find the answer which maximizes your expected risk-adjusted return, not your base-case or expected return. This means that we have to go beyond the industry standard and explicitly account for risk in our analysis.
Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. While yield spreads have widened, they remain well below the long-term averages. However, if recession risks increase due to tariffs, sentiment, or illiquidity, those yield spreads will widen further.
After starting the year on a high note with the S&P 500 index of U.S. Large Cap stocks posting an all-time high on February 19th, equities retreated during the second half of the quarter, officially falling into correction territory (down 10 percent) on March 13.
Another period of heightened volatility in the markets reminds us why tax management can be such an essential part of fixed income investing.
On 9 April, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on the higher “add-on” reciprocal tariffs on 50-plus countries that had been announced the previous week, precipitating a historic equity market rally and showing that there was seemingly a limit to how far he would go to move forward with his trade agenda.
Spending cuts, tariffs and recession risk—Jan van Eck’s latest outlook breaks down what to watch and why he’s focused on gold, bitcoin, semiconductors and India.
Vanguard head of U.S. ETF Capital Markets Bill Coleman discussed the growing role that active ETFs are playing in portfolios.
Bonds have gained as investors sought shelter amid growing fears around a tariff-driven global economic slowdown.
Morgan Stanley’s stock-traders delivered first-quarter revenue that exceeded analyst predictions, as Wall Street’s biggest banks continue to benefit from turbulence ignited by President Donald Trump’s policies.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. sold ¥90 billion ($628 million) of bonds on Friday in its smallest yen deal ever in a market rocked by an escalating trade war.
Getting into Donald Trump’s head is no easy task. And to the extent his economic intentions are decipherable and coherent, can Trump impose his economic will on other countries? As tariffs go into place, albeit with a partial pause, that remains to be seen.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s stock traders took in a record haul in the first quarter, boosted by chaotic market moves set off by President Donald Trump’s policy announcements after he took office in January.
The markets are in the middle of a historic decline. Not so much in the magnitude—while we are approaching a bear market, these happen fairly regularly—but in the speed of the drop.
On 2 April, the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs that were more aggressive than many had expected. Then on 9 April, the administration announced a 90-day pause on most of the new country-specific “reciprocal tariffs.”
Markets responded swiftly to President Trump’s recent announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs, with the S&P 500 falling more than 3% in a single day.
Concerns about a trade war have rattled markets so far in 2025, but we believe fixed income investors need to be patient, stay defensive, and see how things evolve before making any big decisions.
Global equities faced fresh challenges in the first quarter of 2025 amid growing trade-war concerns and developments in artificial intelligence (AI).
Last week President Trump announced tariffs on nearly all US trading partners, a move that far exceeded the most pessimistic expectations of market participants.
In an era when a select group of tech behemoths has dominated market returns, investors are growing increasingly wary of the concentration risk it poses.
Markets were jolted last week after President Trump announced sweeping tariffs, including steep increases on China, Japan, and the EU, leading to a 10.5% drop in the S&P 500 over two days—an event seen only during major crises in the past 75 years.
A Wall Street axiom states that the stock markets lead the economy by about six months. While not a perfect predictor, the stock market reacts to investor expectations about future corporate earnings, economic activity, interest rates, and inflation.
With uncertainty in abundance, we think investors should avoid drastic moves.
The April 2 “reciprocal” tariff announcement has introduced a considerable amount of uncertainty and confusion about the path ahead and the end game for President Trump.
VettaFi addresses common questions on midstream/MLPs, oil prices, recessions, and tariffs following last week’s equity sell-off.
Private equity firms are increasingly employing a fundraising tactic that makes it harder for major investors like pensions to exit their funds early, irritating clients who want cash on short notice.
When it’s finally completed seven years from now, Citadel LLC’s New York tower will be the second tallest building in the city, after the World Trade Center. It will also loom over the headquarters of JPMorgan Chase & Co. just a few hundred yards south along Park Avenue.
An enduring image from 2024 will be the capture of the SpaceX booster rocket by the Mechazilla robot arms on its return to Earth.
While there are no absolute winners in a trade war, there may be relative winners in the global stock market for investors to consider.
Mutual Funds
Portfolio Managers See Canada Stock Market as Long-Term Winner
As President Donald Trump’s trade war continues, Canadian equities are poised to outperform their US counterparts, portfolio managers argue.
Tech Giants to Plow $500 Billion Cash Hoard Into More Buybacks
While many investors have been scared away from tech giants at the center of this year’s equity rout, the companies are likely to continue plowing money into buybacks that will offer at least one source of continuing support for the stocks.
US Banks Ride Out Market Turmoil Thanks to Capital Buildup They Opposed
Big US banks are navigating a choppy environment just two years after the last round of turmoil, this time with almost no one questioning the industry’s ability to ride out whatever is coming.
Opportunities
Many investors are wondering what to think of the volatility and uncertainty that has been pulsing through financial markets over the past few weeks.
Gauging the Fear Factor: From Volatility Peaks to Equity Returns
Stock markets have been rattled by trade war tensions and economic uncertainty driven by US tariff policies. Yet history suggests that equities have usually performed well in the aftermath of peak market volatility.
Balancing Treasury Market Stability and Systemic Risk
A reintroduction of SLR relief to balance treasury market stability and systemic risk would likely produce several market effects.
BNY’s Ben Slavin on ETF Trading, Flows, Share Class Structure, & Innovation
BNY’s Ben Slavin provides an in-depth look at recent ETF trading and flows, and unpacks the latest on the ETF share class structure and product innovation. VettaFi’s Kirsten Chang highlights five noteworthy ETF launches.
Tesla at Risk of a ‘Throwaway Year’ Without a New Narrative From Earnings
Tesla Inc. investors reeling from one of the stock’s worst-ever quarters are once again looking for Elon Musk to inject excitement back into the firm when it reports results Tuesday, as profits slip and the much-awaited debut of a self-driving car remains months away.
As US Recession Looms, Banks Brace for Worse
If the US slides into recession, banks will be ready – at least according to commentary on their earnings calls last week.
Ares Says Cash-Hungry Private Equity Investors Face Big Wait
Private equity investors will have to wait even longer before getting back their money back from older funds as global trade turmoil dims hopes of a deal revival, according to the head of Ares Management Corp.’s buyout business.
Why Does Volatility Often Lead to Strong Emerging Equity Returns?
Emerging-market (EM) stocks might not seem an obvious choice for anxious investors during a trade war. But history suggests that past volatility peaks have created favorable moments to invest in EM stocks.
Smoke Signals: Dollar Decline, Tariffs and Treasury Yields Surge Signal Market Volatility
Tariff uncertainty, a weakening US dollar, and surging Treasury yields are flashing warning signs for investors. Explore how political risks, fiscal policy, and global volatility are reshaping capital flows and market confidence.
The Trade-Off in Covered Call Strategies
A fundamental lesson in finance is a security’s price should be the present value of all future cash flows. Cash flows typically consist of a regular string of dividend payments and an assumed liquidation value at the end of the time horizon.
Corporate vs. Municipal Bonds: Key Differences Every Investor Should Know
Compare corporate and municipal bonds, including risks, returns, and tax benefits. Learn which bond type fits your investment goals.
Quarterly Recap Q1 2025
U.S. defensives and international lead.a
SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY)
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research, Todd Rosenbluth, discussed the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
World Markets Watchlist: April 21, 2025
Four of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through April 21, 2025. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.03%. Germany’s DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 5.35% while China's Shanghai is in third with a year to date gain of 0.88%.
The Evolution of Active Management: From Stock Picking to Active Asset Allocation
Active management has not disappeared — it has simply evolved. Rather than focusing on outdated stock selection methodologies, today’s most effective active strategies center on active portfolio construction and dynamic asset allocation.
Swaps & Basis Trades Signal Mounting Liquidity Problems
As we have learned repeatedly, the Fed will take extensive emergency measures if it perceives liquidity problems. Even above their congressional mandated objective of managing employment and prices, the Fed's top priority is preserving the banks.
The Dark Side of Surging Bank Trading Revenue
Banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. can thank the White House’s aggressive disruptions on tariff policy and other issues for record hauls from equities trading in the first quarter, when market volatility began to surge.
Market Volatility and Corporate Bonds: 3 Takeaways
Markets were rattled by tariff announcements in early April. Here are three takeaways for investors considering preferred securities, investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds.
Analysts See Gold at $4,000 as Faith in the U.S. Dollar Tumbles
In nominal terms, the yellow metal set multiple new all-time highs this week, exceeding $3,300 an ounce for the first time ever on Wednesday. And on an inflation-adjusted basis, gold also notched a new record price, surpassing the longstanding record set in 1980.
How Effectively Can the U.S. Economy Untether From China?
U.S. trade policy has evolved significantly in a matter of weeks.
Why Does Volatility Often Lead to Strong Emerging Equity Returns?
Emerging-market (EM) stocks might not seem an obvious choice for anxious investors during a trade war. But history suggests that past volatility peaks have created favorable moments to invest in EM stocks.
Tariff Tremors, Market Rotations, and the Imperative of Optimization
The first quarter of 2025 marked a significant departure from the preceding two years, which had been characterized by an improving global economy and correspondingly positive market returns. Market performance in Q1 was dominated by abrupt, short-term policy shifts rather than longer-term economic trends, and tariffs became the foremost concern for market participants.
2025 Muni Outlook: Stay Invested and Remain Nimble
Less favorable seasonal technicals, increased focus on municipal-specific policy risks, and severe volatility spurred by higher-than-anticipated tariff increases weighed heavily
on sentiment and resulted in deeply negative total returns and significant underperformance versus Treasuries in March and early April.
Trade Wars and the U.S. Dollar
Rapid U.S. policy changes pose challenges for investors accustomed to a global financial system anchored in U.S. markets and assets.
Banks Outperformed for Q1 but Strike Cautious Tone for the Rest of 2025
Banks blew Q1 earnings expectations out of the water, benefitting from high trading volumes, but CEO commentary remains cautious for 2025.
Gauging the Fear Factor: From Volatility Peaks to Equity Returns
Stock markets have been rattled by trade war tensions and economic uncertainty driven by US tariff policies. Yet history suggests that equities have usually performed well in the aftermath of peak market volatility.
Our Thinking on the Markets
Right now we are in an incredibly complicated environment with regard to U.S. tariff policy gyrations and its whipsawing impact on global equity markets. One thing we can confidently assert is that however the trade negotiations play out, there will be higher tariffs and this will be negative for U.S. growth.
Canadian Investment in US Stocks Hit Record in February Despite Trade Tension
Canadians poured a record amount into US equities in February, even as a movement to boycott US products and vacations gained momentum.
ETFs Highlight Ease of Trading in Three-Day Selloff for Munis
This month’s panic-driven selling across municipal bonds — fueled by the boom in ETFs — is proving a mixed blessing for investors in a normally sedate market corner.
Small-Caps May Yet Have Their Redemption Day
One day doesn’t make a trend, but wary small-caps investors may find some comfort in knowing the Russell 2000 Index jumped 8.50% on Wednesday
Treasury Yields Snapshot: April 17, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended April 17, 2025 at 4.34%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.81% and the 30-year note ended at 4.80%.
An Abrupt and Cascading Dislocation
While we remain open to changes in market conditions, as well as periodic “fast, furious, prone-to-failure” advances that can relieve the oversold “compression” produced by market losses, we are presently on high alert for a possibly abrupt and cascading market and economic dislocation in the weeks ahead.
KKR Will Have to Fight for Private Equity’s Smelliest Deal
KKR & Co. is eyeing one of the riskiest deals going right now — buying the owner of London’s creaking water and sewage system, Thames Water. Giving a private equity firm the chance to profit from fixing the mess Thames got into under past private ownership looks bad but makes sense.
A Deep Dive into Covered Call ETFs
Covered call strategies have been around for a very long time, but covered call ETFs have recently enjoyed a massive increase in popularity.
The Fed Can Use the “Alphabet” if Need Be
The month of April will unfortunately go down in financial market folklore as being one of the more noteworthy on record.
Domestic Drivers in Tariff Headwinds
CIO Sean Taylor assesses a better-than-expected quarter for emerging markets and takes stock of the drivers that may support the asset class in what could be difficult months ahead for global markets.
The Financial Crisis of 2025? Better to Be Ready
If there’s one thing investors have learned in recent days, it’s that there’s no way to guess what America will do next. With its on-again, off-again tariffs, the US administration has demonstrated a rare and reckless willingness to shock markets.
JPMorgan’s Maier Sees Paradigm Shift to Active Management in ETFs
JPMorgan's Jon Maier spoke with VettaFi about active management in the ETFs space approaching investing in the current environment.
Baffled C-Suites Are a Fresh Hurdle for Markets
Delta Air Lines Inc. and the parent of Frontier Airlines recently yanked earnings guidance for 2025, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon saying that he expects “to see more of that.”
Billionaires and CEOs Bet on Cheap San Francisco Real Estate
In San Francisco’s financial district, the One Montgomery building evokes the opulence of America’s turn of the 20th century gilded age. With its Tuscan columns, marble staircases and bronze doors, the Renaissance Revival landmark once housed Crocker Bank, named after one of the tycoons who built the western portion of America’s first transcontinental railroad.
EQT’s Asia Buyout Fund Gets $10 Billion, On Track for Target
Swedish firm EQT AB received more than $10 billion in investor commitments for its latest pan-Asia private equity fund, putting it on track to reach its fundraising goal despite the market volatility.
Six Tax Planning Ideas for Navigating Market Volatility
Navigating market volatility can be challenging for investors. Our Bill Cass shares several tax planning strategies to consider.
Looking at the Economic Data and Volatility in the Bond Market
Last week, the S&P 500 was up 5.7%, the strongest week for the market since November 2023.
What to Expect From Equities in the New World Order
While the US experiments with reordering the world’s trading system, uncertainty rises and volatility ensues. We are reminded of the delicate balance between safeguarding domestic interests and promoting a cooperative global trading system.
Volatility Is the Theme of the Moment
Nick Goetze discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Resilience or Recession? Markets on Edge
As we write this, stocks have bounced back as Trump retreated from electronic tariffs from China. Nevertheless, this was a remarkable week for markets with Trump’s tariff policy taking center stage for market stress across stocks, bonds and currencies.
Equity Outlook: American Exceptionalism Reexamined
While we continue to feel the U.S. has structural investment advantages, we are mindful that the scope of the current administration's policy shifts may present challenges to our sustained economic momentum.
Risk Management Amid Economic Uncertainty
The current market unrest over the potential for tariff increases and their impact is unpredictable. The volatility can be unnerving.
From Magnificent 7 to European Revival
2025 has marked a striking reversal, with European stocks delivering exceptional returns that have handily surpassed US market performance.
SPY’s Trading Volume Highlights Advisor Enthusiasm Toward ETFs
SPY's recent surge of inflows showcases how advisors are using ETFs as crucial vehicles for navigating market volatility.
Volatile Markets Spark Unexpected ETF Stories
VettaFi’s Cinthia Murphy looks at several surprising ETF developments from a wild week in the markets. VistaShares CEO Adam Patti highlights the firm’s unique approach to ETFs, which includes the VistaShares Target Berkshire Select Income ETF (OMAH).
Upside Down(side): Markets' Wild Rides
Markets have had a wild ride these past couple of weeks, alongside chaotic tariff-related news, with volatility (and its policy triggers) most elevated in the bond market.
Neuberger Berman Commodity Strategy ETF (NBCM)
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth talked about the Neuberger Berman Commodity Strategy ETF (NBCM) with Money Life host Chuck Jaffe. The pair covered a range of topics related to the fund, providing investors with a deeper understanding of the ETF.
Bond Rebound Relieves Markets Dazed by Week of Trade Turmoil
Wall Street on Monday finally caught a respite from the deep selloffs and unusually sharp swings that have raced through markets ever since President Donald Trump unleashed his global trade war.
Lessons From the Dip: A Gameplan for Market Chaos
On Monday, April 7, the S&P 500 dropped as much as 4.7% at the session low before whiplashing higher on reports of a potential tariff delay—closing the day up 3.4% from Friday’s close.
Notes From the Desk: Bond Trauma
Swap spreads measure the difference between the interest rate on a swap and the yield on a Treasury bond with the same maturity.
Is It Time for Smart Beta to Be Smart?
On the evening before his presentation at the Exchange Conference last week, I sat down with Rob Arnott to discuss whether now is the time for smart beta to shine. Arnott is the founder and chair of Research Affiliates and is known as the “godfather of smart beta.”
Trump’s Economic Revolution: Unraveling a Blessing & a Curse
If Trump is successful in ending — or at least significantly changing — the current global economic structure, the economy and geopolitics will change dramatically. Initially, this will be highly challenging from an investment perspective.
The Q1 Stock Setback & Target Date Fund Investors — More of the Same to Come
This may be the beginning of the long-awaited U.S. stock market crash, but even if it isn’t those near retirement need to protect themselves from sequence-of-return risk that can ruin the rest of their lives.
Where Did I Put My Investments?
As with all decisions involving uncertainty, we want to find the answer which maximizes your expected risk-adjusted return, not your base-case or expected return. This means that we have to go beyond the industry standard and explicitly account for risk in our analysis.
Yield Spreads Suggest The Risk Isn’t Over Yet
Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. While yield spreads have widened, they remain well below the long-term averages. However, if recession risks increase due to tariffs, sentiment, or illiquidity, those yield spreads will widen further.
Tariffs Add Another Challenge for Investors to Consider
After starting the year on a high note with the S&P 500 index of U.S. Large Cap stocks posting an all-time high on February 19th, equities retreated during the second half of the quarter, officially falling into correction territory (down 10 percent) on March 13.
Fixed Income Tax Loss Harvesting: Realizing Losses No Matter When They Occur
Another period of heightened volatility in the markets reminds us why tax management can be such an essential part of fixed income investing.
President Trump Blinks for Now, But Tariffs Remain High
On 9 April, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on the higher “add-on” reciprocal tariffs on 50-plus countries that had been announced the previous week, precipitating a historic equity market rally and showing that there was seemingly a limit to how far he would go to move forward with his trade agenda.
Q2 2025 Outlook: In the Middle of the 3% Reckoning
Spending cuts, tariffs and recession risk—Jan van Eck’s latest outlook breaks down what to watch and why he’s focused on gold, bitcoin, semiconductors and India.
Vanguard Details Demand & Opportunities for Active ETFs
Vanguard head of U.S. ETF Capital Markets Bill Coleman discussed the growing role that active ETFs are playing in portfolios.
As Tariffs Cloud Outlook, Municipal Bonds May Offer Opportunity
Bonds have gained as investors sought shelter amid growing fears around a tariff-driven global economic slowdown.
Morgan Stanley Stock Traders Deliver Record on Volatility
Morgan Stanley’s stock-traders delivered first-quarter revenue that exceeded analyst predictions, as Wall Street’s biggest banks continue to benefit from turbulence ignited by President Donald Trump’s policies.
Berkshire Yen Bond Deal Is Its Smallest Ever Amid Trade War
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. sold ¥90 billion ($628 million) of bonds on Friday in its smallest yen deal ever in a market rocked by an escalating trade war.
Tariffs Are the First Part of a Larger Project
Getting into Donald Trump’s head is no easy task. And to the extent his economic intentions are decipherable and coherent, can Trump impose his economic will on other countries? As tariffs go into place, albeit with a partial pause, that remains to be seen.
JPMorgan Stock Traders Notch Record Revenue on Market Chaos
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s stock traders took in a record haul in the first quarter, boosted by chaotic market moves set off by President Donald Trump’s policy announcements after he took office in January.
Tariffs Shock Economy and Markets
The markets are in the middle of a historic decline. Not so much in the magnitude—while we are approaching a bear market, these happen fairly regularly—but in the speed of the drop.
The U.S. Economy’s Trajectory Amid Higher Tariffs
On 2 April, the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs that were more aggressive than many had expected. Then on 9 April, the administration announced a 90-day pause on most of the new country-specific “reciprocal tariffs.”
Tariffs, Turbulence, and the Case for Staying Diversified
Markets responded swiftly to President Trump’s recent announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs, with the S&P 500 falling more than 3% in a single day.
Strategic Income Outlook: Magic 8-Ball Says, “Ask Again Later"
Concerns about a trade war have rattled markets so far in 2025, but we believe fixed income investors need to be patient, stay defensive, and see how things evolve before making any big decisions.
Finding Silver Linings in Very Cloudy Markets
Global equities faced fresh challenges in the first quarter of 2025 amid growing trade-war concerns and developments in artificial intelligence (AI).
The Path Forward After the Tariff Shock
Last week President Trump announced tariffs on nearly all US trading partners, a move that far exceeded the most pessimistic expectations of market participants.
Small Caps, Big Opportunities: Investing Beyond Large-Cap Stocks
In an era when a select group of tech behemoths has dominated market returns, investors are growing increasingly wary of the concentration risk it poses.
Q1 2025 Baird Chautauqua Global Outlook
Markets were jolted last week after President Trump announced sweeping tariffs, including steep increases on China, Japan, and the EU, leading to a 10.5% drop in the S&P 500 over two days—an event seen only during major crises in the past 75 years.
The Stock Market Warning Of A Recession?
A Wall Street axiom states that the stock markets lead the economy by about six months. While not a perfect predictor, the stock market reacts to investor expectations about future corporate earnings, economic activity, interest rates, and inflation.
Tariff Shock: Managing a Portfolio Through the Turmoil
With uncertainty in abundance, we think investors should avoid drastic moves.
What’s the Tariff Endgame?
The April 2 “reciprocal” tariff announcement has introduced a considerable amount of uncertainty and confusion about the path ahead and the end game for President Trump.
Tariff Tantrum: Addressing Questions on Oil & Midstream
VettaFi addresses common questions on midstream/MLPs, oil prices, recessions, and tariffs following last week’s equity sell-off.
Private Equity Firms Ask for Cash to Let Stakes Change Hands
Private equity firms are increasingly employing a fundraising tactic that makes it harder for major investors like pensions to exit their funds early, irritating clients who want cash on short notice.
Shadow Banks Are Too Big to Stay in the Shadows
When it’s finally completed seven years from now, Citadel LLC’s New York tower will be the second tallest building in the city, after the World Trade Center. It will also loom over the headquarters of JPMorgan Chase & Co. just a few hundred yards south along Park Avenue.
2025 Global Market Outlook: The Mechazilla Moment
An enduring image from 2024 will be the capture of the SpaceX booster rocket by the Mechazilla robot arms on its return to Earth.
Relative Winners in a Trade War
While there are no absolute winners in a trade war, there may be relative winners in the global stock market for investors to consider.