US economic data continue to send mixed signals, keeping uncertainty high on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later this year.
Alex Veroude, Global Head of Fixed Income, believes fixed income investors can prepare for an uncertain journey by recognising trends and diversifying across different assets.
For US traders, developing-country stocks have been a surprising source of returns as Donald Trump’s trade war roiled the S&P 500 Index.
Gold plays a distinct role in the global monetary system. Simply put, it’s perceived as money, and its function as a store of value makes it arguably the world’s most popular hedge against inflation.
In the history of technological progress, there's often a critical misreading. We think the leap is in the product—the engine, the chip, the app.
Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities Lucas Klein and Head of Americas Equities Marc Pinto argue that progress on the trade impasse, further monetary easing, pro-growth reforms, and an innovation revolution should all prove supportive to equities over the mid term once the market moves past near-term volatility.
The US and China capped two days of high-stakes trade talks with a plan to revive the flow of sensitive goods — a framework now awaiting the blessing of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
It’s premature to assume that tariffs won’t push up inflation, but the developments have been pretty encouraging thus far.
President Donald Trump said he intended to send letters to trading partners in the next one to two weeks setting unilateral tariff rates, ahead of a July 9 deadline to reimpose higher duties on dozens of economies.
The first half of 2025 has been driven by headlines that have caused volatility in both the stock and bond markets. While tariff negotiations have commanded the most attention, we are now pivoting to the federal budget deficit, which feels like a perpetual headline over the last 15 years.
Today, Vanguard released its newest bond fund, the Vanguard Multi-Sector Income Bond ETF (VGMS).
What's the debt ceiling? Learn how the debt ceiling works and how a default on federal debt could impact the U.S. stock market and economy.
To anyone going through a breakup, just remember this lyric from Bernadette Peters: “If I’m patient the break will mend and one fine morning the hurt will end.”
With the world order in flux, investors can look to fortify portfolios by diversifying across global markets and capitalizing on attractive, high quality yields.
Financial institutions shouldn’t underestimate the depth of regulatory complexity coming their way. A misstep in just one area — whether it’s KYC, AML or elsewhere — could unleash severe consequences.
US Treasuries surged as easing US consumer inflation prompted traders to increase their wagers on more than one Federal Reserve interest-rate cut this year.
US stocks oscillated between small gains and losses on Wednesday, as traders look past an upbeat report on cooling consumer prices and assess the outlook for global trade.
Underlying US inflation rose in May by less than forecast for the fourth month in a row, suggesting companies are largely holding back on passing higher tariff costs through to consumers.
While the immediate path for tariffs may drift lower, the U.S. legislative branch is hammering out a tax and spending bill that seems to favor tax cuts over lower spending, reviving worries over the U.S. budget deficit and a growing debt burden that cannot be ignored.
Advisors looking to add or enhance existing gold exposures in their portfolio have a range of strategies to consider within the ETF vehicle.
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
If we lived in a world where mobile signals were visible, the sky would shimmer like a storm—layers of frequencies rolling over rooftops, crossing oceans and saturating valleys.
The U.S. economy and stock market face a confluence of challenges in the second half of the year, keeping the bar relatively (but not restrictively) high for outperformance.
Robotics was one of the earliest examples of a disruptive technology. It enjoyed some time in the investment community limelight. But it was rapidly usurped by other innovative technologies, including AI.
Diversification of portfolios using international equities can reduce volatility and enhance risk-adjusted returns, especially given recent geopolitical shifts that decrease correlations between U.S. and international markets. Despite some investor skepticism, and as we discuss below, the benefits of international diversification can be significant and should be considered in investment strategies.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, aka Mr. Valuation will do a comprehensive analysis of Autoliv Inc (ALV), the world’s largest automotive safety supplier.
Stablecoins are a special flavor of cryptocurrency. Unlike Bitcoin or countless wildly traded memecoins, whose values rise and fall based on market moods, the most popular versions of these digital tokens are supposed to always be worth $1 each.
The Fear Trade is what most Western investors are familiar with. It’s the flight to safety during times of uncertainty, driven by concerns over inflation, interest rates, geopolitical risk and more.
I spent the last two weeks of May catching up with partners and clients in Malaysia, Singapore, China, and Hong Kong. Following are some reflections on those conversations.
Investors looking to move big blocks of corporate bonds have long relied on exchange-traded funds listed on stock exchanges to jump in and out of positions. But now, they’re increasingly trading directly in the debt market.
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
For the first time in five months, gold-backed ETFs globally reported modest outflows in May as investors took profits.
Last week’s employment report was an important stabilizer for the markets. After concerning revisions and weak ADP numbers raised recession alarms, Friday’s payrolls print calmed fears on labor market deterioration.
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through June 9, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 23.23%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 17.73% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.93%.
May's employment report showed that 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours)5
Stablecoins and the concept of digital money represent a significant shift from the current system. While there are many risks with digital money, there is also promise.
US Treasuries were trimming overnight gains, with modest weakness in longer dated debt as investors awaited a Thursday auction of 30-year securities that will offer a fresh test of demand for the beleaguered securities.
US stocks flipped between small gains and losses on Monday as investors awaited the outcome of crucial trade talks between Washington and Beijing in London.
Vanguard Group Inc. is launching a low-cost fund focused on emerging-market stocks while explicitly avoiding China, muscling into a trade long dominated by BlackRock Inc.
Yale University’s $41 billion endowment, led for decades by the late investing giant David Swensen, has been the envy – and the blueprint — for many US universities eager to secure their financial future.
Three months after the Chinese artificial intelligence developer DeepSeek upended the tech world with a model that rivaled America’s best, a 28-year-old AI executive named Alexandr Wang came to Capitol Hill to tell policymakers what they needed to do to maintain US dominance.
Today we’ll continue our SIC highlight series featuring a relatively new face who is now indispensable, plus some new ones who were crowd favorites.
Research trips are an integral component of our active, fundamental investment process. Our investment teams meet with different companies, attend conferences, and travel to new markets around the world, gaining insights for our clients and a deeper understanding of potential investments.
Rebounding demand from ETF investors and resilient buying from central banks and Asia retail have propelled gold prices to fresh records north of US$3,000/oz. Find out why we believe there is more room to run.
Iron and steel mills employ about 85,700 people in the US. That’s less than half as many as in 1990 but slightly more than in 2016 and 2017.
Treasuries fell as faster-than-expected US job and wage growth prompted traders to trim back bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
The biggest story swirling around Tesla Inc. right now concerns Chief Executive Elon Musk’s sudden, if unsurprising, break with a leader who is as calm and unassuming as he is, President Donald Trump. The important story concerns what is happening far from these shores: China.
Gold’s recent surge to $3,500 was quickly followed by a sharp correction. Each tariff update or diplomatic rumor sends markets into a frenzy—rallying stocks, selling gold, or reversing course the next day.
We remain underweight most developed market stocks as US tariff policy is still unclear but are more enthusiastic about emerging market assets.
With tariffs toggling on and off and a major tax bill still in flux, investors should brace for headline-driven volatility through July, particularly around trade and fiscal policy.
Since 2019 and the establishment of the ETF Rule, traditional active managers, armed with decades of expertise, have flocked to ETFs.
In the last three months tariff news has whipped financial markets around remarkably in response to President Trump’s ever changing tariff policies. The most pronounced reactions were concentrated in the US stock market.
Stocks rallied in May 2025 as trade tensions eased, but investor confidence remains fragile.
On the trade front, investor uncertainty eased for a short time as President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs seemed to lose traction. Several key developments contributed, including a 90-day tariff pause with China, the signing of a US-UK trade agreement and progress on negotiations with other partners, including Europe.
Britain is hoping to complete a trade deal with the US in the next two weeks to avoid President Donald Trump’s vast new tariffs on steel, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Wednesday.
A U.S. trade court has blocked most of the Trump administration's "reciprocal" tariffs, but the legal battle will continue. Here's what investors should know.
U.S.-Europe negotiations involve more than just tariffs.
The economic narrative took a decisive turn last week. A stunning collapse in the trade deficit suggests we could be looking at near 4% GDP growth in the second quarter—a massive upward revision from the consensus of 2%.
Nvidia Corp. shares have staged a $1 trillion rebound in two months — and investors are betting the rally has further to go as fears about the chipmaker give way to optimism.
New research connects intensifying natural perils to their future implications for asset classes.
As investors grapple with nagging macro uncertainty, market volatility’s likely to continue. But we also see reasons for optimism — and new opportunities.
Treasury floating rate notes and ETFs like the WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury Fund (USFR) are often seen as beneficial tools to fixed income investors when yields on U.S. government debt are rising.
This past week, news flow around policy came in hot and heavy, with President Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful’ tax cut bill passing the House of Representatives, and Trump threatening 50% tariffs on the European Union (EU).
Amid a fair amount of market tumult, we wrote two months ago that the best course of action was to stay invested in roughly the same portfolios that we’ve had throughout, and let the market stabilize.
Last week's economic data presented a mixed but generally more positive outlook. Inflation continued its downward trend in April.
For anyone on Wall Street still clinging to a time-honored macro-investing playbook, Trump 2.0 has been a source of endless punishment.
Wall Street banks are reinforcing their calls that the dollar will weaken further, hit by interest-rate cuts, slowing economic growth and President Donald Trump’s trade and tax policies.
Today I’m going to highlight some speakers who added an equity market perspective to their big-picture views. Getting both right would be much easier if more investors behaved rationally. Alas, they don’t, which is why stock prices do incomprehensible things. Fortunately, you can succeed without catching every twist and turn.
It’s been a tough few months for believers in the currency market version of Pax Americana.
Emerging markets debt held its ground in the first quarter, but staying ahead means staying selective. We’re reassessing positioning across high-, low-, and frontier-beta currencies and rates as trade tensions and U.S. policy inject fresh uncertainty.
Nvidia, the biggest AI chip firm, reports Wednesday. Blackwell chip demand, tariffs, and guidance all could help determine how shares respond after a volatile two months.
Remember last July and August when the yen carry trade blew up? At the time, the central bank surprised the market by signaling a faster pace of rate hikes than expected. Investors sold foreign currency, bought back yen and sent markets into a tailspin.
An "end-to-end" approach in process management means handling a task or product from its initial planning stages to the finishing point or delivery, without relying on intermediaries for specific steps. No nation does this better than China.
The long-term bearish case for the dollar remained intact after a court ruled that the vast majority of President Donald Trump’s global trade tariffs are illegal, amplifying uncertainty over the US economic outlook.
Matching assets to long-term liabilities without compromising on return potential can be a challenge for insurers with long-duration liabilities.
There is still a wide divergence between hard and soft data, and a recovery in the latter is likely to be weak absent a meaningful reduction in policy uncertainty.
Sell in May and Go Away? This old market saying tends to resurface around Memorial Day, suggesting investors should scale back their equity exposure ahead of what’s perceived as a seasonally weaker stretch for stocks.
Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose four points this month to -9 after falling nine points in April. This month's reading was consistent with the forecast.
Nvidia Corp. faces the final test of an earnings season-driven rally that has sent its shares up more than 40% from an April low.
While official estimates remain fluid and subject to change, our preliminary analysis at the time of this writing suggests that the House Reconciliation Proposal could significantly increase the national debt over the next decade.
Rising imports of glass containers are just one sign of how the US lost its manufacturing culture.
Friday’s market tremor was ignited not by economic data, which brought limited new releases, but by revived political uncertainty—specifically, President Trump’s abrupt reinvigorated tariff threats.
Let’s unpack the state of the markets today, explore where opportunities lie and review several strategies to navigate the months ahead.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® experienced its largest monthly increase in over four years in May. The index rose 12.3 points to 98.0 this month, marking the first monthly rise since November.
US consumer confidence rebounded sharply in May from a near five-year low as the outlook for the economy and labor market improved amid a truce on tariffs.
India is the stuff of dreams for OPEC and Big Oil: a rapidly developing nation of nearly 1.5 billion people where petroleum consumption is still in its infancy.
There’s a lot to like about the travel industry right now from an investment standpoint. You just have to know where to look.
Keep your market perspective in check, avoid anchoring, and focus on your investment goals rather than market volatility.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity contracted slightly in May, with the composite index at -3. This marks the 21st consecutive month the index has been negative. Future expectations stayed positive, though they eased from 6 in April to 5 in May.
Emerging Markets
The South Is Beating Inflation — But Not Housing
US economic data continue to send mixed signals, keeping uncertainty high on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later this year.
Fixed Income Outlook: A Not-so-Random Walk
Alex Veroude, Global Head of Fixed Income, believes fixed income investors can prepare for an uncertain journey by recognising trends and diversifying across different assets.
Options Signal EM Firms’ Outperformance Could Fade: Taking Stock
For US traders, developing-country stocks have been a surprising source of returns as Donald Trump’s trade war roiled the S&P 500 Index.
Gold has Glittered Amidst Storming Markets
Gold plays a distinct role in the global monetary system. Simply put, it’s perceived as money, and its function as a store of value makes it arguably the world’s most popular hedge against inflation.
The Compute Capital Supercycle: AI’s Silent Infrastructure Revolution
In the history of technological progress, there's often a critical misreading. We think the leap is in the product—the engine, the chip, the app.
Equities Outlook: Era of Rapid Change Creates Opportunities
Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities Lucas Klein and Head of Americas Equities Marc Pinto argue that progress on the trade impasse, further monetary easing, pro-growth reforms, and an innovation revolution should all prove supportive to equities over the mid term once the market moves past near-term volatility.
US, China Officials Agree on Plan That Awaits Xi, Trump Sign-Off
The US and China capped two days of high-stakes trade talks with a plan to revive the flow of sensitive goods — a framework now awaiting the blessing of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
Why is Inflation Defying Tariff Fears?
It’s premature to assume that tariffs won’t push up inflation, but the developments have been pretty encouraging thus far.
Trump Says Again He’ll Set Unilateral Tariffs in Two Weeks
President Donald Trump said he intended to send letters to trading partners in the next one to two weeks setting unilateral tariff rates, ahead of a July 9 deadline to reimpose higher duties on dozens of economies.
Deficit Pressures Treasuries… But No Crisis: US Treasury Market Is ‘Too Big to Fail’
The first half of 2025 has been driven by headlines that have caused volatility in both the stock and bond markets. While tariff negotiations have commanded the most attention, we are now pivoting to the federal budget deficit, which feels like a perpetual headline over the last 15 years.
Vanguard Debuts New Active Multi-Sector Bond ETF
Today, Vanguard released its newest bond fund, the Vanguard Multi-Sector Income Bond ETF (VGMS).
What Is the Debt Ceiling and Why Does It Matter?
What's the debt ceiling? Learn how the debt ceiling works and how a default on federal debt could impact the U.S. stock market and economy.
Trading Away From The U.S.?
To anyone going through a breakup, just remember this lyric from Bernadette Peters: “If I’m patient the break will mend and one fine morning the hurt will end.”
The Fragmentation Era
With the world order in flux, investors can look to fortify portfolios by diversifying across global markets and capitalizing on attractive, high quality yields.
One Consumer Watchdog Loses Its Bite as Others Sharpen Their Claws
Financial institutions shouldn’t underestimate the depth of regulatory complexity coming their way. A misstep in just one area — whether it’s KYC, AML or elsewhere — could unleash severe consequences.
Treasuries Rally as Soft Inflation Fuels Bets on Fed Rate Cuts
US Treasuries surged as easing US consumer inflation prompted traders to increase their wagers on more than one Federal Reserve interest-rate cut this year.
US Stocks Waffle as Traders Weigh US-China Trade Progress
US stocks oscillated between small gains and losses on Wednesday, as traders look past an upbeat report on cooling consumer prices and assess the outlook for global trade.
US Core Inflation Rises Less Than Forecast for Fourth Month
Underlying US inflation rose in May by less than forecast for the fourth month in a row, suggesting companies are largely holding back on passing higher tariff costs through to consumers.
A Focus on Fundamentals
While the immediate path for tariffs may drift lower, the U.S. legislative branch is hammering out a tax and spending bill that seems to favor tax cuts over lower spending, reviving worries over the U.S. budget deficit and a growing debt burden that cannot be ignored.
3 Different Gold ETF Strategies for the Second Half
Advisors looking to add or enhance existing gold exposures in their portfolio have a range of strategies to consider within the ETF vehicle.
What's the 10-Year Outlook for Major Asset Classes?
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
The Infrastructure That Lets the Future Happen
If we lived in a world where mobile signals were visible, the sky would shimmer like a storm—layers of frequencies rolling over rooftops, crossing oceans and saturating valleys.
2025 Mid-Year Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy
The U.S. economy and stock market face a confluence of challenges in the second half of the year, keeping the bar relatively (but not restrictively) high for outperformance.
Intersection of Robotics & AI: Crucial Theme for Tech Sector
Robotics was one of the earliest examples of a disruptive technology. It enjoyed some time in the investment community limelight. But it was rapidly usurped by other innovative technologies, including AI.
Going Abroad for a Free Lunch
Diversification of portfolios using international equities can reduce volatility and enhance risk-adjusted returns, especially given recent geopolitical shifts that decrease correlations between U.S. and international markets. Despite some investor skepticism, and as we discuss below, the benefits of international diversification can be significant and should be considered in investment strategies.
Secure Returns: Investing in the World’s Largest Automotive Safety Supplier for Income and Growth
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, aka Mr. Valuation will do a comprehensive analysis of Autoliv Inc (ALV), the world’s largest automotive safety supplier.
Stablecoins Bring Crypto to the Mainstream. What Could Go Wrong?
Stablecoins are a special flavor of cryptocurrency. Unlike Bitcoin or countless wildly traded memecoins, whose values rise and fall based on market moods, the most popular versions of these digital tokens are supposed to always be worth $1 each.
Meet the “Hermès of Gold” the Chinese Can’t Get Enough Of
The Fear Trade is what most Western investors are familiar with. It’s the flight to safety during times of uncertainty, driven by concerns over inflation, interest rates, geopolitical risk and more.
The View From The Far East
I spent the last two weeks of May catching up with partners and clients in Malaysia, Singapore, China, and Hong Kong. Following are some reflections on those conversations.
Credit Investors Embrace Portfolio Trades as ETF Grip Eases
Investors looking to move big blocks of corporate bonds have long relied on exchange-traded funds listed on stock exchanges to jump in and out of positions. But now, they’re increasingly trading directly in the debt market.
Mid-Year Outlook: International Stocks and Economy
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Gold ETF Momentum Eased in May With Modest Outflows
For the first time in five months, gold-backed ETFs globally reported modest outflows in May as investors took profits.
Jobs Report Yields Sigh of Relief
Last week’s employment report was an important stabilizer for the markets. After concerning revisions and weak ADP numbers raised recession alarms, Friday’s payrolls print calmed fears on labor market deterioration.
World Markets Watchlist: June 9, 2025
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through June 9, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 23.23%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 17.73% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.93%.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: May 2025
May's employment report showed that 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours)5
Stablecoins to the Treasury’s Rescue
Stablecoins and the concept of digital money represent a significant shift from the current system. While there are many risks with digital money, there is also promise.
US Treasuries Win Some Respite as Key 30-Year Auction Looms
US Treasuries were trimming overnight gains, with modest weakness in longer dated debt as investors awaited a Thursday auction of 30-year securities that will offer a fresh test of demand for the beleaguered securities.
US Stocks Fluctuate as US-China Trade Talks Kick Off in London
US stocks flipped between small gains and losses on Monday as investors awaited the outcome of crucial trade talks between Washington and Beijing in London.
Vanguard Set to Challenge BlackRock’s Grip on Ex-China ETF Trade
Vanguard Group Inc. is launching a low-cost fund focused on emerging-market stocks while explicitly avoiding China, muscling into a trade long dominated by BlackRock Inc.
Yale’s $2.5 Billion Private Equity Sale Tests its Vaunted Endowment Model
Yale University’s $41 billion endowment, led for decades by the late investing giant David Swensen, has been the envy – and the blueprint — for many US universities eager to secure their financial future.
Meta Set to Throw Billions at Startup That Leads AI Data Market
Three months after the Chinese artificial intelligence developer DeepSeek upended the tech world with a model that rivaled America’s best, a 28-year-old AI executive named Alexandr Wang came to Capitol Hill to tell policymakers what they needed to do to maintain US dominance.
Good News and Creative Destruction
Today we’ll continue our SIC highlight series featuring a relatively new face who is now indispensable, plus some new ones who were crowd favorites.
Investing Expeditions: The Ripple Effects of Trade Uncertainty
Research trips are an integral component of our active, fundamental investment process. Our investment teams meet with different companies, attend conferences, and travel to new markets around the world, gaining insights for our clients and a deeper understanding of potential investments.
Gold 2025 Midyear Outlook: A High(er) for Long(er) Gold Price Regime
Rebounding demand from ETF investors and resilient buying from central banks and Asia retail have propelled gold prices to fresh records north of US$3,000/oz. Find out why we believe there is more room to run.
Why Steel Users Don’t Make More of a Fuss About Tariffs
Iron and steel mills employ about 85,700 people in the US. That’s less than half as many as in 1990 but slightly more than in 2016 and 2017.
Treasuries Drop as Strong Jobs Data Curb Bets on Fed Rate Cuts
Treasuries fell as faster-than-expected US job and wage growth prompted traders to trim back bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
Tesla Is Being Eaten Alive by Chinese Rivals It Inspired
The biggest story swirling around Tesla Inc. right now concerns Chief Executive Elon Musk’s sudden, if unsurprising, break with a leader who is as calm and unassuming as he is, President Donald Trump. The important story concerns what is happening far from these shores: China.
The Debt Spiral, Gold’s Rise, and the Dollar’s Fall
Gold’s recent surge to $3,500 was quickly followed by a sharp correction. Each tariff update or diplomatic rumor sends markets into a frenzy—rallying stocks, selling gold, or reversing course the next day.
Barometer: Cautious on Equities as Us Flip-Flops on Tariffs
We remain underweight most developed market stocks as US tariff policy is still unclear but are more enthusiastic about emerging market assets.
Trump, Powell & Rates: Tariffs On, Tariffs Off
With tariffs toggling on and off and a major tax bill still in flux, investors should brace for headline-driven volatility through July, particularly around trade and fiscal policy.
Active EM ETF Offers Access to a Time-Tested Strategy
Since 2019 and the establishment of the ETF Rule, traditional active managers, armed with decades of expertise, have flocked to ETFs.
From Tariff Angst to Optimism
In the last three months tariff news has whipped financial markets around remarkably in response to President Trump’s ever changing tariff policies. The most pronounced reactions were concentrated in the US stock market.
Markets are Back Near All-Time Highs, but Confidence Isn’t
Stocks rallied in May 2025 as trade tensions eased, but investor confidence remains fragile.
2025 Mid-Year Outlook: Global Stocks and Economy
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Political Noise Continued to Dominate Headlines in May
On the trade front, investor uncertainty eased for a short time as President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs seemed to lose traction. Several key developments contributed, including a 90-day tariff pause with China, the signing of a US-UK trade agreement and progress on negotiations with other partners, including Europe.
Starmer Wants US Deal Done in Two Weeks to Save British Steel
Britain is hoping to complete a trade deal with the US in the next two weeks to avoid President Donald Trump’s vast new tariffs on steel, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Wednesday.
Are Tariffs Over? Court Ruling Isn't the End
A U.S. trade court has blocked most of the Trump administration's "reciprocal" tariffs, but the legal battle will continue. Here's what investors should know.
Transatlantic Tussle
U.S.-Europe negotiations involve more than just tariffs.
Economic Data Surprises, While China Tensions Resurface
The economic narrative took a decisive turn last week. A stunning collapse in the trade deficit suggests we could be looking at near 4% GDP growth in the second quarter—a massive upward revision from the consensus of 2%.
Nvidia’s $1 Trillion Rally Has Traders Primed to Ramp Back Up
Nvidia Corp. shares have staged a $1 trillion rebound in two months — and investors are betting the rally has further to go as fears about the chipmaker give way to optimism.
Can Tomorrow’s Natural Hazards Inform Today’s Investment Decisions?
New research connects intensifying natural perils to their future implications for asset classes.
The Unbearable Burden of Waiting and Seeing
As investors grapple with nagging macro uncertainty, market volatility’s likely to continue. But we also see reasons for optimism — and new opportunities.
Floating Rate Notes Are Appealing Fixed Income Ideas
Treasury floating rate notes and ETFs like the WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury Fund (USFR) are often seen as beneficial tools to fixed income investors when yields on U.S. government debt are rising.
Why the Recession Call Matters for Stocks
This past week, news flow around policy came in hot and heavy, with President Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful’ tax cut bill passing the House of Representatives, and Trump threatening 50% tariffs on the European Union (EU).
QuantStreet May 2025 Letter: Negotiations
Amid a fair amount of market tumult, we wrote two months ago that the best course of action was to stay invested in roughly the same portfolios that we’ve had throughout, and let the market stabilize.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Inflation Cools While Sentiment Cautiously Climbs
Last week's economic data presented a mixed but generally more positive outlook. Inflation continued its downward trend in April.
Wall Street’s Macro Traders Get Schooled in Trump-Era Turbulence
For anyone on Wall Street still clinging to a time-honored macro-investing playbook, Trump 2.0 has been a source of endless punishment.
Wall Street Sees Deeper Dollar Rout as Currency Nears 2023 Low
Wall Street banks are reinforcing their calls that the dollar will weaken further, hit by interest-rate cuts, slowing economic growth and President Donald Trump’s trade and tax policies.
Bullish Highlights
Today I’m going to highlight some speakers who added an equity market perspective to their big-picture views. Getting both right would be much easier if more investors behaved rationally. Alas, they don’t, which is why stock prices do incomprehensible things. Fortunately, you can succeed without catching every twist and turn.
The Problem with Asia’s ‘Sell America’ Moment
It’s been a tough few months for believers in the currency market version of Pax Americana.
Risk Rethought: Local Currency in a Shifting World
Emerging markets debt held its ground in the first quarter, but staying ahead means staying selective. We’re reassessing positioning across high-, low-, and frontier-beta currencies and rates as trade tensions and U.S. policy inject fresh uncertainty.
Nvidia on Deck with Tariffs, Blackwell Sales Eyed
Nvidia, the biggest AI chip firm, reports Wednesday. Blackwell chip demand, tariffs, and guidance all could help determine how shares respond after a volatile two months.
Investors May Sell in May Until Japan’s JGB Problem Goes Away
Remember last July and August when the yen carry trade blew up? At the time, the central bank surprised the market by signaling a faster pace of rate hikes than expected. Investors sold foreign currency, bought back yen and sent markets into a tailspin.
China’s Growing Reach in Shipping
An "end-to-end" approach in process management means handling a task or product from its initial planning stages to the finishing point or delivery, without relying on intermediaries for specific steps. No nation does this better than China.
Dollar Bounce Is Short-Lived After Trump Tariffs Move Into Limbo
The long-term bearish case for the dollar remained intact after a court ruled that the vast majority of President Donald Trump’s global trade tariffs are illegal, amplifying uncertainty over the US economic outlook.
Renewable Energy and Insurers: Tailor Made?
Matching assets to long-term liabilities without compromising on return potential can be a challenge for insurers with long-duration liabilities.
No Hard Feelings: Soft vs. Hard Divide Persists
There is still a wide divergence between hard and soft data, and a recovery in the latter is likely to be weak absent a meaningful reduction in policy uncertainty.
Summer Market Signals: Tariffs, Tax Cuts and Treasury Yields
Sell in May and Go Away? This old market saying tends to resurface around Memorial Day, suggesting investors should scale back their equity exposure ahead of what’s perceived as a seasonally weaker stretch for stocks.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity Slowed in May
Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose four points this month to -9 after falling nine points in April. This month's reading was consistent with the forecast.
Nvidia to Have Final Say on Strong Earnings Season for Big Tech
Nvidia Corp. faces the final test of an earnings season-driven rally that has sent its shares up more than 40% from an April low.
The Big Beautiful Bill: Stimulus Now, Tightening Later
While official estimates remain fluid and subject to change, our preliminary analysis at the time of this writing suggests that the House Reconciliation Proposal could significantly increase the national debt over the next decade.
A Glass Plant Shows How US Can Revive Manufacturing
Rising imports of glass containers are just one sign of how the US lost its manufacturing culture.
Markets Absorb the Noise, Stay Constructive
Friday’s market tremor was ignited not by economic data, which brought limited new releases, but by revived political uncertainty—specifically, President Trump’s abrupt reinvigorated tariff threats.
First Do No Harm: Strategies for Investing in a Turbulent Market
Let’s unpack the state of the markets today, explore where opportunities lie and review several strategies to navigate the months ahead.
Consumer Confidence Sees Largest Monthly Increase in Over Four Years
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® experienced its largest monthly increase in over four years in May. The index rose 12.3 points to 98.0 this month, marking the first monthly rise since November.
US Consumer Confidence Jumps Most in Four Years on Trade Truce
US consumer confidence rebounded sharply in May from a near five-year low as the outlook for the economy and labor market improved amid a truce on tariffs.
The Oil Market Has a Bigger Problem Than a Slowing China – India
India is the stuff of dreams for OPEC and Big Oil: a rapidly developing nation of nearly 1.5 billion people where petroleum consumption is still in its infancy.
Record Memorial Day Weekend Puts Travel Stocks Back in the Spotlight
There’s a lot to like about the travel industry right now from an investment standpoint. You just have to know where to look.
The Anchoring Problem and How to Solve it
Keep your market perspective in check, avoid anchoring, and focus on your investment goals rather than market volatility.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing: Activity Contracted Slightly in May
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity contracted slightly in May, with the composite index at -3. This marks the 21st consecutive month the index has been negative. Future expectations stayed positive, though they eased from 6 in April to 5 in May.