Inflation

Moody’s Friday downgrade of the U.S. credit rating may not seem particularly earthshaking, given that Fitch and Standard & Poor’s had gotten there quite a while ago.

President Donald Trump’s first overseas trip since returning to the White House is turning heads across the aerospace & defense and semiconductor industries.

With financial markets whipsawing on every tweet and press release, Maharrey urged listeners to step back, take a breath, and consider the big picture — particularly on the issues of debt, inflation, and de-dollarization.

President Trump’s tariff maneuvers sent financial markets on a rollercoaster. The shock from his aggressive trade policies triggered a surge in volatility, briefly pushing the VIX above 50 – an extremely rare event.

Macroeconomic and structural trends are finally moving in favor of emerging local currency bonds, after recent setbacks.

Head of U.S. Fixed Income Greg Wilensky and John Lloyd, Lead, Multi-Sector Credit Strategies, discuss Moody’s rating downgrade of the U.S. and what the implications may be for the Treasury market, the Federal Reserve (Fed), and fixed income investors.

The signal of announcing trade pacts is an important start.

Milton Friedman, Art Laffer and other market-believing economists had their long day in the sun during the 1980s and 1990s. Tax rates fell and government spending declined relative to GDP. But – ironically, in the long run, and long after he passed away – John Maynard Keynes got his revenge.

Bitcoin was launched in 2008. It was the following year when it was initially used as an actual currency.

Recent revisions to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reflect a sobering message: the world economy is entering a more volatile and fragmented era.

After Friday’s close, Moody’s downgraded U.S. treasuries, as S&P had 14 years ago, in 2011. I criticized the downgrade then…and I do now. The government cannot technically default, as the Fed can always buy the bonds for any auction.

Fisher Investments recently wrote an interesting article asking whether corporate stock buybacks affect markets.

The recent rally began when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent struck a more conciliatory tone with China, saying he expected a de-escalation shortly.

Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.

Stocks have rebounded since the White House delayed steep tariffs that were announced in early April, but trade policy remains a potential driver of volatility.

The House Ways & Means Committee advanced a comprehensive tax bill this week. Our Bill Cass discusses the key provisions and how they may impact taxpayers.

While April brought further welcome news on the inflation front, underlying consumer fundamentals painted a more concerning picture.

A recent Gallup poll shows gold just passed stocks as Americans’ favorite long-term investment. We explore why it might deserve the top spot.

The 90-day reduction on tariffs between the US and China is a positive development, but some questions remain.

So far in 2025, markets have had plenty to absorb: the Trump administration’s tariffs, Germany’s latest investment commitments, the implications of the DeepSeek moment, and escalating military conflicts (now including one on the India-Pakistan border).

While the CPI has dipped close to the mythical 2 percent target, core CPI remains elevated.

We maintain a focus on resiliency as elevated yields within high quality fixed income continue to offer attractive opportunities.

Despite the announcement of new tariffs, long-term inflation expectations—as measured by the 5y5y inflation rate—have remained stable

Our overarching theme for U.S. fixed income has been, and will continue to be, based on the premise that interest rates will stay at more historically “normal” levels, but that, within this backdrop, investors will face heightened volatility.

By the end of April, the S&P 500 rallied its way back, recovering nearly all the declines notched in the opening days of the month when President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff plans tipped markets towards bear territory.

China has been a focal point of American trade policy for many years, but tensions were escalated early in the second Trump term.

Emerging market equities and bonds could benefit if the US dollar weakens—a possible scenario amid tariff turmoil.

Flows of gold into Asian ETFs exploded in April, driving global ETF gold holdings higher for the fifth straight month.

The surprisingly large reduction in mutual tariffs between China and the U.S. announced early Monday morning has sent the markets flying. Trump has softened his approach dramatically and markets are expecting future deals. The base case: everyone at 10%, China at say 20% is still a jump, but at least will likely prevent a recession. Trade and tariffs remain the main focus for markets.

The more duration risk taken, the more reward or yield demanded by investors. This is why, historically, the yield curve provides incrementally more yield for longer-maturity bonds.

In the report, Portfolio Managers John Kerschner, Nick Childs, and Thomas Polus highlight three reasons why agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) look attractive in the present environment.

The early-April announcement of a broad new round of tariffs against virtually all U.S. trading partners—followed by a pause for many of them—has triggered a tidal shift in the global economy. Uncertainty created by tariff negotiations, as well as burgeoning federal debt levels and other ongoing concerns, has far-reaching economic implications, leading us to reassess our 2025 outlook.

China and the U.S. conducted their first formal trade talks of 2025 over the weekend. And on Monday, May 12, they announced the outcome of their negotiations.

For my entire decades-long career in capital markets, I’ve made the case that gold is not just a shiny relic of the past, but a serious, strategic asset for modern investors. After years of pounding the table, it feels pretty good to say that the world’s central banks—and now the U.S. banking system—are finally catching up.

Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.

I’ve been writing about tariffs for a couple of months now, focusing mostly on the macroeconomic harm and the costs they impose on small businesses. Today I want to consider something else: the new risks they are adding to the financial system alongside the old risks.

As the effects of US import tariffs begin to emerge, we shift our stance on equities to underweight.

In the report, Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons say that despite growing policy uncertainty, plenty of healthcare companies have managed to put up big returns.

In a rare moment of honesty, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted he and his fellow central bankers don’t know what they’re doing as they wrapped up the May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Bonds and stocks falling together stirs painful memories of the 2022 inflation surge. This time, trade and tariff uncertainty is to blame, along with a dose of questioning the Fed’s independence.

Last week featured a light economic calendar, with the Fed holding its benchmark interest rate steady for the third consecutive meeting.

At Wednesday’s press conference, Chair Jay Powell signaled a wait-and-see approach, as the Fed keeps a close eye on inflation pressures and the job market.

China drove the surge in retail investment demand, charting the second strongest quarter on record.