Most investors would jump at the chance to add more money to their portfolio, but they often fail to consider the hidden costs associated with it.
By incorporating growth CDs into a diversified retirement plan, retirees can take advantage of equity market growth, protect their lifestyle, and avoid the fear of market downturns diminishing their savings.
Financial advisors will be working with millennials and Gen Z, either as new clients or as family members of existing ones.
S&P 500® earnings per share estimates have come down sharply. According to FactSet, calendar year 2025 is now expected to show $266 in operating EPS for the Index.
After entering the year with a cautious outlook, managers have become more defensively postured as the U.S. tariff policy has increased uncertainty.
Even with tariff uncertainty, there’s no stopping the engine of ETF creation. More than 288 new ETFs have already launched this year.
These are scary times. No surprise, the typical advice is to stay the course — that it will all work out fine — but those near retirement should take heed.
The first quarter of 2025 marked a significant departure from the preceding two years, which had been characterized by an improving global economy and correspondingly positive market returns. Market performance in Q1 was dominated by abrupt, short-term policy shifts rather than longer-term economic trends, and tariffs became the foremost concern for market participants.
If I had a dollar for every time I heard or read the word recession in the last week, well, I’d have enough not to be financially worried about one. Add a dollar for every mention of tariffs and I’d be comfortably flushed with cash.
This may be the beginning of the long-awaited U.S. stock market crash, but even if it isn’t those near retirement need to protect themselves from sequence-of-return risk that can ruin the rest of their lives.
The month of March featured a varied mix of articles among Advisor Perspectives’ top 10 most-read list, including book reviews, analysis of current events and primers on different subjects among its ranks.
The world has entered a period of geopolitical uncertainty, with the U.S. now at the center of the storm.
Markets sold off sharply Friday and in the early Monday hours, and I do not believe inflation data was the culprit.
If a dividend is not a gain, then what is it? Here is my irony-drenched-but-accurate definition
How recent market volatility has contributed to a sharp reversal in global equities.
Total assets held by actively run ETFs in the US have hit the $1 trillion milestone, as investors sink cash into a new generation of strategies — shaking up the passive reputation of this booming corner of money management.
This article highlights several SimpleVisor tools we use to track sector and factor rotations. These models help us better forecast tomorrow’s possible rotations and try to stay a step ahead of the market.
Quantitative easing has created serious inflation threats. The only way out is to increase tax receipts and reduce government spending, neither of which is in the Fed’s purview. Otherwise, serious inflation lies ahead, regardless of Fed actions.
The sense of gloom on Wall Street is putting pressure on some of the most committed backers of American exceptionalism: South Korea’s risk-seeking retail investors.
One of the biggest challenges investors face today is navigating the most concentrated U.S. stock market in history, where the largest stocks represent a record share of total market value.
Prices can continue to rise, until they don’t. Have we reached the point where they don’t?
The 60/40 portfolio, where 60% is invested in stocks and 40% in bonds, is the initial starting point for many portfolios. The exact asset mix is often adjusted based on an investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals, but the simple, proportional stock-bond combination is what is often considered a “balanced” portfolio.
There have been few winning strategies to seek refuge in as the stock rout sparked by President Donald Trump’s start-stop tariff war drags on for a third week.
Precidian’s Stuart Thomas spotlights the firm’s innovative ADRhedged ETFs and explains the rationale for removing currency exposure. VettaFi’s Kirsten Chang discusses several recent ETF launches, including offerings from State Street, VistaShares, Quantify Funds, and Roundhill.
The PPA has made a mistake in designating an MA as a QDIA. Perhaps the drafters of the PPA were thinking about accounts that are actually managed, but those participants do not default, so that flavor of MA is not a QDIA, and is typically reserved for executives of the sponsoring firm.
Cambria Investments CIO and founder Meb Faber explores David Swensen’s legendary investment strategy at Yale’s endowment, comparing its long-term performance to traditional portfolios and examining whether individual investors can replicate its success.
Russ Koesterich discusses the risk of higher interest rates and the potential impact (both positive and negative) such a move could have on markets.
The future is impossible to predict, but looking at the patterns around price/earnings ratios can provide some insight about what one might expect.
Today we are going to revisit that matrix updated through 2024. We will see what we got right and wrong, what further inferences we can now make and why I think it confirms my general shift in market strategy over the past few years.
Many independent firms and Registered Investment Advisors aspire to move upmarket, targeting wealthier clients who demand more sophisticated financial solutions.
Trend-chasing hedge funds are facing a fresh wave of competition from the ETF world, as asset managers make their latest push to open up strategies to the masses that were once reserved for the financial elite.
When constructing a target-date fund (TDF) glide path, providers have many decisions to make, such as what asset classes to include, when to include them, and how much to allocate to each.
My friends like to make fun of me by taunting that I don’t like to commit to things. I’m constantly trying new hobbies. I don’t like to make plans too far in advance because something more exciting might pop up. I don’t even like to renew my car tags for more than one year.
Many boomers are business owners who are selling their businesses. This article provides guidance for these retiring business owners, their heirs and their advisors. This article also discusses opportunities for investors to capitalize on this once-in-a-lifetime mass exodus of baby boomer business owners.
At the same time, the Fed has mostly ignored the impact of easy financial conditions—the combination of stock, bond, and credit conditions—offsetting increases in interest rates by bolstering wealth and confidence.
Integrating private assets may enhance target-date glide paths, but know your exposures.
In this note, we'd like to share our analysis of one potential solution we've been hearing about a lot lately. It involves leveraged direct index tax-loss harvesting.
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
Finally, an innovation has arrived in 401(k) investing. PTDAs are new. They combine multiple target date glidepaths with managed accounts, potentially using the best of both. Because they are new, it will be easy to think of them all as being the same, but that is far from the truth.
Looking back to 2024, global equity markets remained resilient despite a challenging final few weeks. U.S. equities led both annually and quarterly, buoyed by robust corporate earnings, supportive fiscal policies and market optimism following the Republicans’ red sweep in November.
The first month of 2025 will soon be behind us. We’ve seen new inflation data and earnings season start to ramp up.
During a rocky fourth quarter, strength in the financials sector was a unifying theme across global markets.
In response to the 2008 stock market and real estate crash, the Federal Reserve stimulated the economy by reducing interest rates to (almost) zero under its zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP). It “printed money” that amazingly did not bring serious inflation, yet.
As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors.
While stocks can move higher, the bond market will continue to matter. Higher rates suggest that equity leadership may continue to reside in companies that are relatively rate insensitive.
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Engaging up front with four key workstreams may smooth the process of adding a solution.
Every new year brings with it a new opportunity to stop for a moment, revisit resolutions, and refresh outlooks.
The Roaring 2020s have been very good so far, but not exceptional when examined in isolation. That said, when viewed in the context of the past 16 years, this record-breaking bull market is spectacular.
I’m not ready to concede that active bests the benchmarks by adding what I consider alpha. For example, “positioning the fund to have more credit risk than its benchmark” is a risk premium much in the same way that the equity risk premium produced returns over the risk-free rate. The credit risk premium may be worth it, but that’s beta, not alpha.
Weather has always been a key factor influencing commodity prices, even though not very obvious at first glance. Agricultural yields depend on rainfall, frost can ruin crops, and hurricanes disrupt supply chains.
Since dividend investing can be boiled down to a single strategy—generating income—you might assume we don’t need a toolbox full of tools. We know that’s not true.
Wall Street is forecasting an 8% return in 2025. That’s below the 10.4% average nominal return over the past 99 years, but it is a forecast of even higher highs. Do you believe it? Will “The Bull” keep running this new year, or is it getting tired?
Quant funds that make money surfing the momentum of markets saw a promising year slip away in 2024 when big bouts of volatility lashed everything from Japanese stocks to cocoa futures and Treasuries.
It’s that time of year again, when pundits are forecasting next year’s stock market performance. I believe investors are being gaslighted more than usual this year because the basic underlying assumptions are optimistic and unlikely.
Over the last decade, U.S. large cap growth stocks have been far and away the best performing major financial asset in the world.
After years in the investment world as an institutional manager, an academic researcher and lecturer, and an independent advisor to individual investors, I’ve learned that there are three main objectives we’re trying to achieve when we design client portfolios.
Wall Street expects the stock market to earn a return in 2025 that is similar to the average return over the past 100 years. Do you agree?
Taxes are on my mind. Do I factor in whether a dividend is considered qualified or ordinary when making my recommendations?
Why cyclical leadership in equities could continue into 2025.
The odds are good that Santa won’t disappoint in 2024. Here’s the history of the past 99 Decembers, compared to the other months.
How to unlock value in a complex market landscape.
Short-term rates are going down because the Treasury is issuing related debt at lower rates. Meanwhile, long-term rates are going up because the Fed is not intervening.. The Fed is trapped in a vicious cycle. Can you see a way out?
The question on “everyone’s” mind, whether the back or the front, is where will the stock market be in two, three, six years?
Some retirees say they could have planned better for lifetime income—helpful insight for current participants.
It is important for savers to understand guaranteed and non-guaranteed options when looking at retirement solutions offered within a 401(k) plan. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights and talks about the need for personalized strategies.
Why the equity market rally following the U.S. presidential election could continue into year-end.
For DC plan sponsors, developing a short list of income solutions is a good first step.
Most of the time the yield on long-term bonds exceeds that on short-term bonds, in order to compensate for the greater risk attached to long-term debt. But until recently the yield curve was inverted, with short-term rates exceeding long-term rates. This happens when investors expect interest rates to decline in the future.
Investors have been married to their money market funds for the better part of the last two years.
Even for dedicated investors, Social Security retirement benefits can be an important part of their financial security.
Protect yourself with Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), precious metals, certain real estate like farmland, and other real assets.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why he believes U.S. exceptionalism is a trend that is likely to continue.
The third quarter of 2024 saw a clear reversal in market leadership, with the Low Volatility and High Dividend factors performing the best while the Momentum and Growth factors performed the worst.
Markets changed character to broad-based optimism relating to the economy. The economic picture began to come into focus with inflation continuing to moderate as the economy maintains steady growth and employment. The result was a stark turnaround for economically integrated or interest rate sensitive assets, which resulted in a great quarter for diversified multi-asset portfolios. New Frontier sets a major milestone in Q4, marking 20 years of investing at the end of October.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses gold may continue to serve as a store of value in the current environment.
In the wake of pandemic shocks, economies appear more “normal” than at any time since 2019. Yet policy rates remain elevated.
GAO reports are intended to improve industry practices. GAO failed in its target date fund report but succeeded in its conflicts of interest report.
In theory, growing a pool of wealth over decades – whether for a family, an endowment, or a pensioner – is a straightforward endeavor.
The ERISA Advisory Council is conducting hearings on Qualified Default Investment Alternatives (QDIAs), seeking recommendations for improvements. The big challenge is making better decisions for people who do not want to engage.
When buying or selling an RIA practice, one of the most important documents you'll encounter is the Asset Purchase Agreement (APA). This agreement is like the foundation of the deal, spelling out exactly what is being bought or sold, how much will be paid, and the responsibilities of both parties.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why the next bout of market volatility may last a bit longer than previous downturns and how to best position your portfolio against this backdrop.
I have looked at market data on inflation expectations, Fed Funds futures, and other factors that influence interest rates. Today, I add an unorthodox factor to the list: cash cows.
An analysis of the leadership reversal and market sell-off observed in recent weeks and why an emphasis on equities with consistent fundamentals is justified.
78 million baby boomers are about one-third of the voter-eligible population and 77 percent of them vote, so there are 60 million baby boomer votes. That 60 million is 38 percent of the 158 million votes cast in the 2020 presidential election. The baby boomer voters’ bloc is a big deal.
The concept of portable alpha is over 40 years old. And while it has evolved through various forms over that time, it continues to be a valuable portfolio tool for institutional investors. Arguably, the most popular iteration right now is adding alpha expected from hedge funds on top of synthetic beta exposure.
Most people see “blockchain” and “funds” in the same sentence and immediately think of pools of money betting on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether. That isn’t how Singapore sees the utility of distributed ledgers.
High interest rates have had the predictable effect of restraining the performances of dividend stocks and related exchange traded funds.
Specialty Investments
The Case for International Equities in Target-Date Funds
Most investors would jump at the chance to add more money to their portfolio, but they often fail to consider the hidden costs associated with it.
Growth CDs: Access Stock Market Appreciation With FDIC Protection
By incorporating growth CDs into a diversified retirement plan, retirees can take advantage of equity market growth, protect their lifestyle, and avoid the fear of market downturns diminishing their savings.
The Advisor’s Guide to Communicating With Gen Z & Millennial Clients
Financial advisors will be working with millennials and Gen Z, either as new clients or as family members of existing ones.
Dividend Hikes Offer Optimism Amid Tariff Turmoil
S&P 500® earnings per share estimates have come down sharply. According to FactSet, calendar year 2025 is now expected to show $266 in operating EPS for the Index.
Tariff Risks Reshape Manager Positioning
After entering the year with a cautious outlook, managers have become more defensively postured as the U.S. tariff policy has increased uncertainty.
ETF Market Booms: Record Launches & Sophisticated Strategies
Even with tariff uncertainty, there’s no stopping the engine of ETF creation. More than 288 new ETFs have already launched this year.
A Warning to Baby Boomers and Others Regarding the China-U.S. Trade War
These are scary times. No surprise, the typical advice is to stay the course — that it will all work out fine — but those near retirement should take heed.
Tariff Tremors, Market Rotations, and the Imperative of Optimization
The first quarter of 2025 marked a significant departure from the preceding two years, which had been characterized by an improving global economy and correspondingly positive market returns. Market performance in Q1 was dominated by abrupt, short-term policy shifts rather than longer-term economic trends, and tariffs became the foremost concern for market participants.
Are Dividend Cuts on the Horizon in 2025?
If I had a dollar for every time I heard or read the word recession in the last week, well, I’d have enough not to be financially worried about one. Add a dollar for every mention of tariffs and I’d be comfortably flushed with cash.
The Q1 Stock Setback & Target Date Fund Investors — More of the Same to Come
This may be the beginning of the long-awaited U.S. stock market crash, but even if it isn’t those near retirement need to protect themselves from sequence-of-return risk that can ruin the rest of their lives.
March 2025’s Most-Read Articles Offer Something for Everyone
The month of March featured a varied mix of articles among Advisor Perspectives’ top 10 most-read list, including book reviews, analysis of current events and primers on different subjects among its ranks.
Seeking Stability
The world has entered a period of geopolitical uncertainty, with the U.S. now at the center of the storm.
Growth Stocks Lead Selloff Amid Trade Fears
Markets sold off sharply Friday and in the early Monday hours, and I do not believe inflation data was the culprit.
A Dividend Is Not a Gain (or a Loss)
If a dividend is not a gain, then what is it? Here is my irony-drenched-but-accurate definition
Volatility Brings Changes to Market Leadership
How recent market volatility has contributed to a sharp reversal in global equities.
Active Management Lives On in ETFs After $1 Trillion Asset Haul
Total assets held by actively run ETFs in the US have hit the $1 trillion milestone, as investors sink cash into a new generation of strategies — shaking up the passive reputation of this booming corner of money management.
Growth to Value: Which Rotation Is Next?
This article highlights several SimpleVisor tools we use to track sector and factor rotations. These models help us better forecast tomorrow’s possible rotations and try to stay a step ahead of the market.
The Catch-22 in the Fed’s Interest Rate Decision
Quantitative easing has created serious inflation threats. The only way out is to increase tax receipts and reduce government spending, neither of which is in the Fed’s purview. Otherwise, serious inflation lies ahead, regardless of Fed actions.
US Tech Rout Fuels Wild Bets From Korean Retail Investors
The sense of gloom on Wall Street is putting pressure on some of the most committed backers of American exceptionalism: South Korea’s risk-seeking retail investors.
How To Survive Falling Markets
One of the biggest challenges investors face today is navigating the most concentrated U.S. stock market in history, where the largest stocks represent a record share of total market value.
The Math Behind Earnings Growth Does Not Support High Stock Prices
Prices can continue to rise, until they don’t. Have we reached the point where they don’t?
Rebuilding Resilience in 60/40 Portfolios
The 60/40 portfolio, where 60% is invested in stocks and 40% in bonds, is the initial starting point for many portfolios. The exact asset mix is often adjusted based on an investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals, but the simple, proportional stock-bond combination is what is often considered a “balanced” portfolio.
Stagflation Trade Emerges as Rare Winner in US Stock Market Rout
There have been few winning strategies to seek refuge in as the stock rout sparked by President Donald Trump’s start-stop tariff war drags on for a third week.
Precidian’s Stuart Thomas Spotlights Currency Hedged Single Stock ETFs
Precidian’s Stuart Thomas spotlights the firm’s innovative ADRhedged ETFs and explains the rationale for removing currency exposure. VettaFi’s Kirsten Chang discusses several recent ETF launches, including offerings from State Street, VistaShares, Quantify Funds, and Roundhill.
Managed Account Is a Misnomer When it Comes to QDIAs
The PPA has made a mistake in designating an MA as a QDIA. Perhaps the drafters of the PPA were thinking about accounts that are actually managed, but those participants do not default, so that flavor of MA is not a QDIA, and is typically reserved for executives of the sponsoring firm.
Can We All Invest Like Yale?
Cambria Investments CIO and founder Meb Faber explores David Swensen’s legendary investment strategy at Yale’s endowment, comparing its long-term performance to traditional portfolios and examining whether individual investors can replicate its success.
Rates Still a Risk for Stocks
Russ Koesterich discusses the risk of higher interest rates and the potential impact (both positive and negative) such a move could have on markets.
Three History Lessons Frame Market Expectations
The future is impossible to predict, but looking at the patterns around price/earnings ratios can provide some insight about what one might expect.
The Bull’s Eye Matrix: Updated
Today we are going to revisit that matrix updated through 2024. We will see what we got right and wrong, what further inferences we can now make and why I think it confirms my general shift in market strategy over the past few years.
Real Talk With Rias: Considering Moving Upmarket? Here Are Some Issues to Consider
Many independent firms and Registered Investment Advisors aspire to move upmarket, targeting wealthier clients who demand more sophisticated financial solutions.
BlackRock, Fidelity Challenge Hedge Funds With Trend-Chaser Bets
Trend-chasing hedge funds are facing a fresh wave of competition from the ETF world, as asset managers make their latest push to open up strategies to the masses that were once reserved for the financial elite.
TDF Glide-Path Essentials: Setting the Right Starting Point
When constructing a target-date fund (TDF) glide path, providers have many decisions to make, such as what asset classes to include, when to include them, and how much to allocate to each.
Solving the Income Investor Dilemma
My friends like to make fun of me by taunting that I don’t like to commit to things. I’m constantly trying new hobbies. I don’t like to make plans too far in advance because something more exciting might pop up. I don’t even like to renew my car tags for more than one year.
Your Millennial Clients Could See Opportunities as Your Boomer Clients Sell Businesses
Many boomers are business owners who are selling their businesses. This article provides guidance for these retiring business owners, their heirs and their advisors. This article also discusses opportunities for investors to capitalize on this once-in-a-lifetime mass exodus of baby boomer business owners.
Navigating the (New) Conundrum
At the same time, the Fed has mostly ignored the impact of easy financial conditions—the combination of stock, bond, and credit conditions—offsetting increases in interest rates by bolstering wealth and confidence.
Bringing the Private-Asset Dimension to Target-Date Glide Paths
Integrating private assets may enhance target-date glide paths, but know your exposures.
Out of the Frying Pan and Into the Fire: Selling a Highly Appreciated Stock Without Paying Taxes?
In this note, we'd like to share our analysis of one potential solution we've been hearing about a lot lately. It involves leveraged direct index tax-loss harvesting.
February 2025 Active Management Insights: Increased Global Opportunities in Small Caps
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Stay Long Gold, Just Not as a Hedge
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
Bifurcated Advancements in 401(k) Investments
Finally, an innovation has arrived in 401(k) investing. PTDAs are new. They combine multiple target date glidepaths with managed accounts, potentially using the best of both. Because they are new, it will be easy to think of them all as being the same, but that is far from the truth.
Looking Back at Equity Factors in Q4 2024 with WisdomTree
Looking back to 2024, global equity markets remained resilient despite a challenging final few weeks. U.S. equities led both annually and quarterly, buoyed by robust corporate earnings, supportive fiscal policies and market optimism following the Republicans’ red sweep in November.
The Trends Set to Make Us Money in 2025
The first month of 2025 will soon be behind us. We’ve seen new inflation data and earnings season start to ramp up.
Q4 2024 Active Management Review: Strength in Financials and Tech
During a rocky fourth quarter, strength in the financials sector was a unifying theme across global markets.
Life Without ZIRP Spells RIR: Rising Interest Rates
In response to the 2008 stock market and real estate crash, the Federal Reserve stimulated the economy by reducing interest rates to (almost) zero under its zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP). It “printed money” that amazingly did not bring serious inflation, yet.
Balancing Caution and Optimism: Navigating 2025’s Market Dynamics
As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors.
Will Higher Rates Doom Stocks? Not Necessarily
While stocks can move higher, the bond market will continue to matter. Higher rates suggest that equity leadership may continue to reside in companies that are relatively rate insensitive.
Uncertainty Is Certain
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Transforming 2024 Insights Into 2025 Action
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Early Groundwork Is Key for Implementing Lifetime Income Solutions
Engaging up front with four key workstreams may smooth the process of adding a solution.
Market Predictions & ETF Ideas for a New Year
Every new year brings with it a new opportunity to stop for a moment, revisit resolutions, and refresh outlooks.
The Roaring 2020s Are Prodding the Bull
The Roaring 2020s have been very good so far, but not exceptional when examined in isolation. That said, when viewed in the context of the past 16 years, this record-breaking bull market is spectacular.
Examining the Case for Active Bond Investing
I’m not ready to concede that active bests the benchmarks by adding what I consider alpha. For example, “positioning the fund to have more credit risk than its benchmark” is a risk premium much in the same way that the equity risk premium produced returns over the risk-free rate. The credit risk premium may be worth it, but that’s beta, not alpha.
Climate Shocks: The Unseen Drivers of Commodity Market Fluctuations in 2023-2024
Weather has always been a key factor influencing commodity prices, even though not very obvious at first glance. Agricultural yields depend on rainfall, frost can ruin crops, and hurricanes disrupt supply chains.
A Necessary Tool for Income Investors… Especially Now
Since dividend investing can be boiled down to a single strategy—generating income—you might assume we don’t need a toolbox full of tools. We know that’s not true.
A 99-Year Perspective on US Markets — Is the Bull Getting Tired?
Wall Street is forecasting an 8% return in 2025. That’s below the 10.4% average nominal return over the past 99 years, but it is a forecast of even higher highs. Do you believe it? Will “The Bull” keep running this new year, or is it getting tired?
Fast-Money Quants Saw Big Year Go Bust in Wild Cross-Asset Ride
Quant funds that make money surfing the momentum of markets saw a promising year slip away in 2024 when big bouts of volatility lashed everything from Japanese stocks to cocoa futures and Treasuries.
A Look Behind the Gaslight Curtain: Optimistic Assumptions Underlie 2025 Market Forecasts
It’s that time of year again, when pundits are forecasting next year’s stock market performance. I believe investors are being gaslighted more than usual this year because the basic underlying assumptions are optimistic and unlikely.
Bargain, Value Trap or Something in Between?
Over the last decade, U.S. large cap growth stocks have been far and away the best performing major financial asset in the world.
Improving Client Portfolios: 4 Mean-Reversion-Driven Scenarios
After years in the investment world as an institutional manager, an academic researcher and lecturer, and an independent advisor to individual investors, I’ve learned that there are three main objectives we’re trying to achieve when we design client portfolios.
Framework for Forecasting Next Year’s Stock Market Return
Wall Street expects the stock market to earn a return in 2025 that is similar to the average return over the past 100 years. Do you agree?
In an Uncertain World, There’s 1 Sure Thing
Taxes are on my mind. Do I factor in whether a dividend is considered qualified or ordinary when making my recommendations?
Economic Resilience Supports Cyclical Rally
Why cyclical leadership in equities could continue into 2025.
Santa’s Gift to the Stock Market
The odds are good that Santa won’t disappoint in 2024. Here’s the history of the past 99 Decembers, compared to the other months.
Turning the Corner? Commercial Real Estate Themes for 2025
How to unlock value in a complex market landscape.
Fed Staunches Asset Hemorrhaging, But Consequences Could Loom
Short-term rates are going down because the Treasury is issuing related debt at lower rates. Meanwhile, long-term rates are going up because the Fed is not intervening.. The Fed is trapped in a vicious cycle. Can you see a way out?
The Changing Nature of the Stock Market
The question on “everyone’s” mind, whether the back or the front, is where will the stock market be in two, three, six years?
Lifetime-Income Lessons from Retirees Can Move the Needle for DC Plans
Some retirees say they could have planned better for lifetime income—helpful insight for current participants.
What Retirement Plan Advisors Need to Know About In-Plan Retirement Income Solutions
It is important for savers to understand guaranteed and non-guaranteed options when looking at retirement solutions offered within a 401(k) plan. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights and talks about the need for personalized strategies.
Why the Election Rally Could Continue
Why the equity market rally following the U.S. presidential election could continue into year-end.
Four Questions to Narrow the Field of Retirement Income Solutions
For DC plan sponsors, developing a short list of income solutions is a good first step.
Behind the Scenes of Uninverting the Yield Curve
Most of the time the yield on long-term bonds exceeds that on short-term bonds, in order to compensate for the greater risk attached to long-term debt. But until recently the yield curve was inverted, with short-term rates exceeding long-term rates. This happens when investors expect interest rates to decline in the future.
More Money Market Substitutes Taking Shape
Investors have been married to their money market funds for the better part of the last two years.
The Inflation Adjustment for Social Security Benefits in 2025
Even for dedicated investors, Social Security retirement benefits can be an important part of their financial security.
Update to a Very Funny, but Sobering, Movie on Our National Debt
Protect yourself with Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), precious metals, certain real estate like farmland, and other real assets.
Reasons to Remain Overweight U.S. Stocks
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why he believes U.S. exceptionalism is a trend that is likely to continue.
Q3 2024 Active Management Review: Market Leadership Reverses
The third quarter of 2024 saw a clear reversal in market leadership, with the Low Volatility and High Dividend factors performing the best while the Momentum and Growth factors performed the worst.
Q3 2024: Shifting Tides: Broad-Based Optimism Fuels Market Momentum
Markets changed character to broad-based optimism relating to the economy. The economic picture began to come into focus with inflation continuing to moderate as the economy maintains steady growth and employment. The result was a stark turnaround for economically integrated or interest rate sensitive assets, which resulted in a great quarter for diversified multi-asset portfolios. New Frontier sets a major milestone in Q4, marking 20 years of investing at the end of October.
Gold’s Stars Continue to Align
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses gold may continue to serve as a store of value in the current environment.
Securing the Soft Landing
In the wake of pandemic shocks, economies appear more “normal” than at any time since 2019. Yet policy rates remain elevated.
Critiques of 2 Recent GAO Reports
GAO reports are intended to improve industry practices. GAO failed in its target date fund report but succeeded in its conflicts of interest report.
A Second Opinion Is Just What the Doctor Ordered
In theory, growing a pool of wealth over decades – whether for a family, an endowment, or a pensioner – is a straightforward endeavor.
Recommendations to the ERISA Advisory Council on QDIAs
The ERISA Advisory Council is conducting hearings on Qualified Default Investment Alternatives (QDIAs), seeking recommendations for improvements. The big challenge is making better decisions for people who do not want to engage.
Why It’s Important to Understand the Asset Purchase Agreement When Buying or Selling a Practice
When buying or selling an RIA practice, one of the most important documents you'll encounter is the Asset Purchase Agreement (APA). This agreement is like the foundation of the deal, spelling out exactly what is being bought or sold, how much will be paid, and the responsibilities of both parties.
Why the Next Spike in Market Volatility May Last
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why the next bout of market volatility may last a bit longer than previous downturns and how to best position your portfolio against this backdrop.
Cash Cow Clues: Can Dividend Yields Forecast Interest Rates?
I have looked at market data on inflation expectations, Fed Funds futures, and other factors that influence interest rates. Today, I add an unorthodox factor to the list: cash cows.
Emphasize Consistency to Navigate Volatility
An analysis of the leadership reversal and market sell-off observed in recent weeks and why an emphasis on equities with consistent fundamentals is justified.
60 Million Baby Boomer Votes Sway the Presidential Election
78 million baby boomers are about one-third of the voter-eligible population and 77 percent of them vote, so there are 60 million baby boomer votes. That 60 million is 38 percent of the 158 million votes cast in the 2020 presidential election. The baby boomer voters’ bloc is a big deal.
Portable Alpha: Divorcing and Remarrying Alpha and Beta
The concept of portable alpha is over 40 years old. And while it has evolved through various forms over that time, it continues to be a valuable portfolio tool for institutional investors. Arguably, the most popular iteration right now is adding alpha expected from hedge funds on top of synthetic beta exposure.
Why Singapore Is Bringing Blockchain Into Mutual Funds
Most people see “blockchain” and “funds” in the same sentence and immediately think of pools of money betting on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether. That isn’t how Singapore sees the utility of distributed ledgers.
Rate Cuts Could Stoke Dividend Stock Renaissance
High interest rates have had the predictable effect of restraining the performances of dividend stocks and related exchange traded funds.