In 2025, two titans of technology stand at the forefront of innovation: quantum computing and robotics. Each offers a vision of a future transformed, where the impossible becomes achievable and industries are redefined.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House will likely protect US stocks from a big selloff, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, as investors focus on his protectionist agenda and proposals for lower corporate taxes.
There are a few things it makes sense to get a start on when a new year begins. One is tax-loss harvesting.
As we close the chapter on Biden’s presidency, we take a moment to reflect on his legacy.
Strong U.S. economic data has spurred a strong rise in Treasury yields but a tepid response in the stock market. Uncertainty likely will continue in coming months.
At CES 2025, Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, offered a compelling vision of AI’s future—one that combines bold technological advances with practical applications.
The Federal Reserve faces a reckoning: Sometime soon, it’ll probably have to subject its stress tests to public scrutiny, highlighting serious flaws in what has become its primary tool for ensuring the resilience of the banking system.
New policies could disrupt markets, but high starting yields and strong demand for income should provide ballast.
BlackRock Inc. is tapping into a fast-growing corner of the options-powered ETF world with an offering aimed at Wall Street investors bracing for the S&P 500 to tread water.
MicroStrategy Inc.’s Michael Saylor may soon have almost as many common shares at his disposal to help fund the company’s Bitcoin buying spree as market behemoths Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. have outstanding.
Canada’s stock market — where returns have lagged the US for two straight years — might offer investors protection against a downturn in US stocks, a Toronto-based asset manager says.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits ticked down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.483 million in December. This marks a 0.7% decrease from November and a 3.1% decline compared to one year ago.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts jumped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.499 million in December, the highest level in ten months. This marks a 15.8% increase from November and a 4.4% decline compared to one year ago.
With all eyes focused on the White House, investors must decide what the incoming President’s policies will mean for markets and how to position accordingly. Ahead of the inauguration, we asked our portfolio managers what they think should be front of mind.
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.
Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.
As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors.
While stocks can move higher, the bond market will continue to matter. Higher rates suggest that equity leadership may continue to reside in companies that are relatively rate insensitive.
Reflecting ongoing uncertainty around inflation and the trajectory of monetary policy, yield volatility posed challenges in 2024. Yet it also highlighted the importance of tax-efficient strategies like loss harvesting in fixed income portfolios.
Nominal retail sales in December were up 0.45% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.92% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.06% MoM and up 1.00% YoY.
Builder confidence inched up in January to its highest level in 9 months on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 47 this month, up one point from December. The latest reading came was above the forecast of 45.
Whether you’re speaking with Europe’s largest money manager, Australia’s giant pension funds, or a cash-rich insurer in Japan, there’s a resounding message you’ll hear when it comes to US Treasuries: They are still hard to beat.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December revealed headline sales were up 0.4% last month. Additionally, November retail sales were revised higher to 0.8%. The latest reading was lower than the expected 0.6% monthly growth in consumer spending.
Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief after a surprise slowdown in inflation spurred a stock rally and a plunge in bond yields, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve is on track to keep cutting rates this year.
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumped to its highest level since April 2021 as manufacturing activity increased overall. In January, the index rose to 44.3 from -10.9 in December, the largest monthly increase since June 2020. The latest reading was much higher than the forecast of -5.0.
BlackRock Inc. attracted an annual record of $641 billion in client cash, underlining the firm’s global reach across public and, increasingly, private assets as it integrates multibillion-dollar acquisitions and reshapes its leadership.
In the week ending January 11th, initial jobless claims rose or the first time in five weeks. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 217,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was worse than the 210,000 forecast.
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Donald Trump and Republicans support sweeping changes that could affect the economy, markets and investors. But narrow margins in Congress could complicate that agenda.
No country wants external developments to drive up its borrowing costs and weaken its currency, which is what the UK is facing today, together with serious cyclical and structural challenges. But if the British government responds appropriately, recent market volatility might turn out to have a silver lining.
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
The threat of tariffs is ramping up ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. This is pushing up silver and copper prices.
The US housing market faces a delicate balancing act in 2025, influenced by effects of the pandemic and persistently high mortgage rates.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for December puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.89%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for the 19th straight month. However, inflation now sits just above the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.88%.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Advisors who refine their tech stacks and focus on actionable solutions will thrive. Likewise, wealthtech companies that prioritize delivering meaningful outcomes will rise to meet the industry’s new standards.
Economic data and policies out of China are typically delayed until mid-March. Stock volatility may be prevalent until initiatives are clarified after the Lunar New Year.
Nvidia Corp.’s $3 trillion run-up in market value in the two years since ChatGPT helped trigger an AI frenzy is bigger than any stock rally in history in such a short time span.
US government bonds surged as benign inflation data prompted traders to resume their bets on additional Federal Reserve interest rate cuts by July.
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
The strong performance of large-cap stocks over the past decade has left the market exceptionally top-heavy. By some measures, stock market capitalization has never been more concentrated among a handful of large stocks as today.
The calendar page has turned, and that means we have the opportunity to get 2025 off to a good start.
US equities had a stellar 2024, with the S&P 500 up 25%, but the year ended on a softer note. The sharp rise in bond yields has caught the market's eye
The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.
Most of us like to ring in the new year with fresh energy. The Europeans appear to have made good on this resolution.
Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.
Gas prices were unchanged this past week while WTIC rose for a third straight week to its highest level in four months. As of January 13th, the price of regular and premium gas were unchanged from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $77.30, up 5.1% from last week.
Wall Street was set for a higher open on Tuesday, though a renewed rise in Treasury yields damped the sentiment boost offered earlier by the prospect of gradually imposed US trade tariffs.
Ten years ago, Research Affiliates launched the Asset Allocation Interactive online tool, making our CMEs freely available to the public. With one full cycle complete, we can see what has worked well and where we can improve.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for December. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 256,000.
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged to its highest level in over six years last month, coming in at 105.1. December's reading marks the 2nd consecutive month the index has been above the historical average of 97.9 and was higher than the forecast of 101.3.
Traders are bracing for one of the most volatile earnings periods in stock market history.
Wholesale inflation increased less than expected last month. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.2% month-over-month (s.a.), below the 0.4% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated from 3.0% in November to 3.3% in December, below the 3.5% forecast.
Over the past few months, I’ve had occasion to speak at a number of conferences concerned with the impact of artificial intelligence on financial jobs.
As we kick off 2025, the economic landscape showcased a strong economy and resilient job market even as higher interest rates weigh on market sentiment. This week’s data underscore the delicate interplay between inflation expectations, real growth, and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.
The December PMI report, released on January 5, 2025, indicates that the U.S. services sector continued to grow, albeit at a measured pace, suggesting resilience in certain areas of the economy.
On the inaugural edition of Market Week in Review for 2025, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, discussed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as well as the latest batch of U.S. and global economic data.
We identify four categories of risks to the growth outlook.
Managing Director, Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills looks at how several of the top market-relevant Washington DC issues could play out in 2025.
Every new year brings with it a new opportunity to stop for a moment, revisit resolutions, and refresh outlooks.
Markets are coming off back-to-back gains of more than 20% each on an annual basis. The chances of a hat trick in 2025 are slim to none.
Let's take a close look at December's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 82.7% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.3% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has upgraded its dollar forecasts, citing a robust US economy and likely higher tariffs that may slow monetary easing.
As we enter 2025, the financial markets are optimistic. That optimism is fueled by strong market performance over the last two years and analyst’s projections for continued growth. However, as “Curb Your Enthusiasm” often demonstrates, even the best-laid plans can unravel when overlooked details come to light. Here are five reasons why a more cautious approach to investing might be warranted in 2025.
The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.
Gold certainly had a great 2024, but 2025 is already shaping up to be an opportune year to build up more exposure through ETFs.
Many people these days are on heightened alert for bubbles, and I’m often asked whether there’s a bubble surrounding the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the handful of stocks that have been leading it.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. December saw a 256,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment ticked down to 4.1%.
After another resilient year for the US economy, we look ahead to the new year.
As we enter 2025, there has been a lot of conjecture about a return to the 5% threshold.
Weather has always been a key factor influencing commodity prices, even though not very obvious at first glance. Agricultural yields depend on rainfall, frost can ruin crops, and hurricanes disrupt supply chains.
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes break down the factors likely to impact economic growth, inflation and interest rates.
U.S. equities closed 2024 on top and U.S. growth took back leadership from U.S. value.
US equities were up notably in 2024, due to a strong economy, accelerating earnings growth, US election results, and AI/mega-cap strength.
Most people assume that the S&P 500 Index will go up over long holding periods.
After hitting nearly 80% of my predictions over the first five years, the past two years are calling into question whether I’m truly the ETF Nostradamus.
In the week ending January 4th, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February 2024. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was better than the 214,000 forecast.
Since dividend investing can be boiled down to a single strategy—generating income—you might assume we don’t need a toolbox full of tools. We know that’s not true.
Yields may trade in a wide range as markets work through issues in the new year. Navigating volatility may mean capturing higher nominal and real yields over the longer term.
While the market has largely moved past that year’s recession debate, it’s worth noting that the traditional definition that persisted for all our careers—two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth—did occur in the first half of 2022.
Although underlying fundamentals and company financial statements can be difficult to analyze, the general public can easily discern price movements and understand the primary objective—buy low and sell high.
In our year ahead outlook, we unveil 5 key factors we believe offer rare certainty in these uncertain times. Discover how we’re navigating this landscape and positioning portfolios to seize opportunities and mitigate risks in the year ahead.
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. Investors should expect more equity market volatility ahead.
Two key components drive the shape of the yield curve: expectations for the short-term interest rate and expectations for the term premium.
A few weeks ago, a reader emailed to challenge what he described as our “cautionary, skeptical and net negative” stance on Bitcoin.
On December 6, the S&P 500 set the most extreme level of valuations on record, exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks on measures that we find best-correlated with actual, subsequent 10-12 year S&P 500 total returns across a century of market cycles.
As we turn the page on 2024 and look ahead into 2025, the key question on investors' minds is: can 2024’s positive momentum in the economy and financial markets continue into 2025?
It’s important that investors remember to rebalance their commodity ETF exposure, particularly as equity ETFs had a strong year in 2024.
Volatility/Downside Protection
Titans of Tomorrow: Quantum Computing and Robotics on the Brink of Revolution
In 2025, two titans of technology stand at the forefront of innovation: quantum computing and robotics. Each offers a vision of a future transformed, where the impossible becomes achievable and industries are redefined.
BofA’s Hartnett Says Trump Trade to Shield US Stocks From Plunge
Donald Trump’s return to the White House will likely protect US stocks from a big selloff, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, as investors focus on his protectionist agenda and proposals for lower corporate taxes.
Direct Indexing: An Easy Way to Tax-Loss Harvest All Year Round
There are a few things it makes sense to get a start on when a new year begins. One is tax-loss harvesting.
Reviewing Market and Economic Performance During the Biden Administration
As we close the chapter on Biden’s presidency, we take a moment to reflect on his legacy.
Schwab Market Perspective: Markets vs. Economy
Strong U.S. economic data has spurred a strong rise in Treasury yields but a tepid response in the stock market. Uncertainty likely will continue in coming months.
The Future of AI: How NVIDIA’s Vision Is Shaping Our World
At CES 2025, Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, offered a compelling vision of AI’s future—one that combines bold technological advances with practical applications.
The Fed’s Stress Tests Are Facing a Stress Test
The Federal Reserve faces a reckoning: Sometime soon, it’ll probably have to subject its stress tests to public scrutiny, highlighting serious flaws in what has become its primary tool for ensuring the resilience of the banking system.
2025 Credit Outlook: On Firm Ground, Despite Shifting Political Sands
New policies could disrupt markets, but high starting yields and strong demand for income should provide ballast.
BlackRock’s Amped Up ETF Taps Into Wall Street’s Stock Anxiety
BlackRock Inc. is tapping into a fast-growing corner of the options-powered ETF world with an offering aimed at Wall Street investors bracing for the S&P 500 to tread water.
MicroStrategy May Soon Rival Amazon, Alphabet in Common Shares
MicroStrategy Inc.’s Michael Saylor may soon have almost as many common shares at his disposal to help fund the company’s Bitcoin buying spree as market behemoths Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. have outstanding.
Canada a ‘Good Place to Hide’ If US Stocks Drop, Contrarian Says
Canada’s stock market — where returns have lagged the US for two straight years — might offer investors protection against a downturn in US stocks, a Toronto-based asset manager says.
Building Permits Tick Down 0.7% in December
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits ticked down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.483 million in December. This marks a 0.7% decrease from November and a 3.1% decline compared to one year ago.
Housing Starts Jump 15.8% in December
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts jumped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.499 million in December, the highest level in ten months. This marks a 15.8% increase from November and a 4.4% decline compared to one year ago.
Investment Considerations for the Second Trump Presidency
With all eyes focused on the White House, investors must decide what the incoming President’s policies will mean for markets and how to position accordingly. Ahead of the inauguration, we asked our portfolio managers what they think should be front of mind.
A Deep Dive on the Recent Spike in U.S. Treasury Yields
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.
A US ETF Split Surge in Q4 2024: Digging Into the Data and What It Means for Investors
Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.
Balancing Caution and Optimism: Navigating 2025’s Market Dynamics
As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors.
Will Higher Rates Doom Stocks? Not Necessarily
While stocks can move higher, the bond market will continue to matter. Higher rates suggest that equity leadership may continue to reside in companies that are relatively rate insensitive.
Is Your Fixed Income Manager Delivering Tax Alpha?
Reflecting ongoing uncertainty around inflation and the trajectory of monetary policy, yield volatility posed challenges in 2024. Yet it also highlighted the importance of tax-efficient strategies like loss harvesting in fixed income portfolios.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Up 0.1% in December
Nominal retail sales in December were up 0.45% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.92% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.06% MoM and up 1.00% YoY.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Inches to 9-Month High in January
Builder confidence inched up in January to its highest level in 9 months on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 47 this month, up one point from December. The latest reading came was above the forecast of 45.
US Bond ‘Death Spiral’ Risk Brushed Aside by Foreign Funds
Whether you’re speaking with Europe’s largest money manager, Australia’s giant pension funds, or a cash-rich insurer in Japan, there’s a resounding message you’ll hear when it comes to US Treasuries: They are still hard to beat.
Retail Sales Up 0.4% in December, Lower Than Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December revealed headline sales were up 0.4% last month. Additionally, November retail sales were revised higher to 0.8%. The latest reading was lower than the expected 0.6% monthly growth in consumer spending.
Wall Street Has Best CPI Day Since at Least 2023: Markets Wrap
Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief after a surprise slowdown in inflation spurred a stock rally and a plunge in bond yields, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve is on track to keep cutting rates this year.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Jumps to Highest Level Since April 2021
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumped to its highest level since April 2021 as manufacturing activity increased overall. In January, the index rose to 44.3 from -10.9 in December, the largest monthly increase since June 2020. The latest reading was much higher than the forecast of -5.0.
BlackRock Gets Record Client Cash, Revamps Leadership Team
BlackRock Inc. attracted an annual record of $641 billion in client cash, underlining the firm’s global reach across public and, increasingly, private assets as it integrates multibillion-dollar acquisitions and reshapes its leadership.
Unemployment Claims Up 14K, Worse Than Expected
In the week ending January 11th, initial jobless claims rose or the first time in five weeks. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 217,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was worse than the 210,000 forecast.
Uncertainty Is Certain
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Bonds – The Dual Benefit
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
New Congress Faces Massive Policy Agenda
Donald Trump and Republicans support sweeping changes that could affect the economy, markets and investors. But narrow margins in Congress could complicate that agenda.
Shock-Proofing the UK Economy
No country wants external developments to drive up its borrowing costs and weaken its currency, which is what the UK is facing today, together with serious cyclical and structural challenges. But if the British government responds appropriately, recent market volatility might turn out to have a silver lining.
Transforming 2024 Insights Into 2025 Action
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Strategic Income Outlook: Magic 8-Ball Says, “Cannot Predict Now”
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
Tariff Threats Boost Silver & Copper Prices
The threat of tariffs is ramping up ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. This is pushing up silver and copper prices.
High Rates, Tight Supply: Housing’s 2025 Balancing Act
The US housing market faces a delicate balancing act in 2025, influenced by effects of the pandemic and persistently high mortgage rates.
Inflation Since 1872: A Long-Term Look at the CPI
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for December puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.89%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for the 19th straight month. However, inflation now sits just above the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.88%.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: December 2024
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
2025 Wealthtech Landscape: Clarity & Consolidation for Financial Advisors
Advisors who refine their tech stacks and focus on actionable solutions will thrive. Likewise, wealthtech companies that prioritize delivering meaningful outcomes will rise to meet the industry’s new standards.
What's Ahead for China in 2025?
Economic data and policies out of China are typically delayed until mid-March. Stock volatility may be prevalent until initiatives are clarified after the Lunar New Year.
Nvidia’s $3 Trillion Rally Is On Edge, Wall Street Is Unfazed
Nvidia Corp.’s $3 trillion run-up in market value in the two years since ChatGPT helped trigger an AI frenzy is bigger than any stock rally in history in such a short time span.
Treasuries Surge as Easing Inflation Boosts Fed Rate-Cut Bets
US government bonds surged as benign inflation data prompted traders to resume their bets on additional Federal Reserve interest rate cuts by July.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Ticks Up to 2.9% in December
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
Slimming Down a Top-Heavy Market
The strong performance of large-cap stocks over the past decade has left the market exceptionally top-heavy. By some measures, stock market capitalization has never been more concentrated among a handful of large stocks as today.
Tax Planning in 2025: Five Key Topics to Discuss With Your Clients Now
The calendar page has turned, and that means we have the opportunity to get 2025 off to a good start.
Bond Yields Surge’s Potential Impacts on the Equity Market
US equities had a stellar 2024, with the S&P 500 up 25%, but the year ended on a softer note. The sharp rise in bond yields has caught the market's eye
2025 Outlook: Run It Back
The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.
Europe Moves Further Away From Russian Gas
Most of us like to ring in the new year with fresh energy. The Europeans appear to have made good on this resolution.
Expect Innovation Led American Exceptionalism to Continue
Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.
Gasoline Prices: WTIC Rises to 4-Month High
Gas prices were unchanged this past week while WTIC rose for a third straight week to its highest level in four months. As of January 13th, the price of regular and premium gas were unchanged from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $77.30, up 5.1% from last week.
Wall Street Set for Higher Open on Tariff Report
Wall Street was set for a higher open on Tuesday, though a renewed rise in Treasury yields damped the sentiment boost offered earlier by the prospect of gradually imposed US trade tariffs.
Asset Allocation Interactive at 10 Years: The Good, the Not Too Bad, and the Ugly
Ten years ago, Research Affiliates launched the Asset Allocation Interactive online tool, making our CMEs freely available to the public. With one full cycle complete, we can see what has worked well and where we can improve.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: December 2024
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for December. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 256,000.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Surges to Six-Year High
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged to its highest level in over six years last month, coming in at 105.1. December's reading marks the 2nd consecutive month the index has been above the historical average of 97.9 and was higher than the forecast of 101.3.
Traders Brace for Biggest S&P Earnings-Day Reactions Ever
Traders are bracing for one of the most volatile earnings periods in stock market history.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Increased Less Than Expected in December
Wholesale inflation increased less than expected last month. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.2% month-over-month (s.a.), below the 0.4% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated from 3.0% in November to 3.3% in December, below the 3.5% forecast.
Don’t Bank on Your Banking Job Outlasting AI
Over the past few months, I’ve had occasion to speak at a number of conferences concerned with the impact of artificial intelligence on financial jobs.
Economic Resilience Meets “Higher for Longer” Rates
As we kick off 2025, the economic landscape showcased a strong economy and resilient job market even as higher interest rates weigh on market sentiment. This week’s data underscore the delicate interplay between inflation expectations, real growth, and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.
PMI Report Highlights: Inflation Pressures Persist Amid Services Sector Growth
The December PMI report, released on January 5, 2025, indicates that the U.S. services sector continued to grow, albeit at a measured pace, suggesting resilience in certain areas of the economy.
Health Check: How Is the Global Economy Holding Up?
On the inaugural edition of Market Week in Review for 2025, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, discussed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as well as the latest batch of U.S. and global economic data.
What We're Worrying About
We identify four categories of risks to the growth outlook.
2025 Political Outlook
Managing Director, Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills looks at how several of the top market-relevant Washington DC issues could play out in 2025.
Market Predictions & ETF Ideas for a New Year
Every new year brings with it a new opportunity to stop for a moment, revisit resolutions, and refresh outlooks.
Chasing Alpha: Top Active Equity Strategies for 2025
Markets are coming off back-to-back gains of more than 20% each on an annual basis. The chances of a hat trick in 2025 are slim to none.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: December 2024
Let's take a close look at December's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 82.7% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.3% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Goldman Sees Dollar Rallying 5% or More as US Growth Dominates
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has upgraded its dollar forecasts, citing a robust US economy and likely higher tariffs that may slow monetary easing.
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” In 2025
As we enter 2025, the financial markets are optimistic. That optimism is fueled by strong market performance over the last two years and analyst’s projections for continued growth. However, as “Curb Your Enthusiasm” often demonstrates, even the best-laid plans can unravel when overlooked details come to light. Here are five reasons why a more cautious approach to investing might be warranted in 2025.
The Top 10 U.S. Aerospace and Defense Contractors
The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.
Gold Investments Still Shine This Year
Gold certainly had a great 2024, but 2025 is already shaping up to be an opportune year to build up more exposure through ETFs.
On Bubble Watch
Many people these days are on heightened alert for bubbles, and I’m often asked whether there’s a bubble surrounding the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the handful of stocks that have been leading it.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: December Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. December saw a 256,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment ticked down to 4.1%.
Outlook 2025: Planning for Growth and Embracing Change
After another resilient year for the US economy, we look ahead to the new year.
Five Alive: Where Is the Treasury 10-Year Yield Headed?
As we enter 2025, there has been a lot of conjecture about a return to the 5% threshold.
Climate Shocks: The Unseen Drivers of Commodity Market Fluctuations in 2023-2024
Weather has always been a key factor influencing commodity prices, even though not very obvious at first glance. Agricultural yields depend on rainfall, frost can ruin crops, and hurricanes disrupt supply chains.
2025 Economic Outlook
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes break down the factors likely to impact economic growth, inflation and interest rates.
Q4 Recap: US Growth Closes the Year on Top
U.S. equities closed 2024 on top and U.S. growth took back leadership from U.S. value.
With New Risks Surfacing, How Should Investors Position Portfolios in 2025?
US equities were up notably in 2024, due to a strong economy, accelerating earnings growth, US election results, and AI/mega-cap strength.
Can Howard Marks Spot a Stock Bubble Twice?
Most people assume that the S&P 500 Index will go up over long holding periods.
5 ETF Predictions for 2025
After hitting nearly 80% of my predictions over the first five years, the past two years are calling into question whether I’m truly the ETF Nostradamus.
Unemployment Claims Drop to 11-Month Low
In the week ending January 4th, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February 2024. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was better than the 214,000 forecast.
A Necessary Tool for Income Investors… Especially Now
Since dividend investing can be boiled down to a single strategy—generating income—you might assume we don’t need a toolbox full of tools. We know that’s not true.
Treasury Bonds: Riding the Range
Yields may trade in a wide range as markets work through issues in the new year. Navigating volatility may mean capturing higher nominal and real yields over the longer term.
High Hopes or Hollow Hype? A 2025 Reality Check
While the market has largely moved past that year’s recession debate, it’s worth noting that the traditional definition that persisted for all our careers—two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth—did occur in the first half of 2022.
Bonds Are Boring… and That’s a Good thing!
Although underlying fundamentals and company financial statements can be difficult to analyze, the general public can easily discern price movements and understand the primary objective—buy low and sell high.
2025 Year Ahead: Certainties for an Uncertain World
In our year ahead outlook, we unveil 5 key factors we believe offer rare certainty in these uncertain times. Discover how we’re navigating this landscape and positioning portfolios to seize opportunities and mitigate risks in the year ahead.
The January 25 Dashboard: Our 3 Layers of Risk Management
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. Investors should expect more equity market volatility ahead.
Notes From the Desk: The Starting Line for the US Yield Curve
Two key components drive the shape of the yield curve: expectations for the short-term interest rate and expectations for the term premium.
Bitcoin Is Not a Nothing, But Not a Something Either
A few weeks ago, a reader emailed to challenge what he described as our “cautionary, skeptical and net negative” stance on Bitcoin.
Pressing for Yet More
On December 6, the S&P 500 set the most extreme level of valuations on record, exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks on measures that we find best-correlated with actual, subsequent 10-12 year S&P 500 total returns across a century of market cycles.
Our 10 Investing Themes for 2025
As we turn the page on 2024 and look ahead into 2025, the key question on investors' minds is: can 2024’s positive momentum in the economy and financial markets continue into 2025?
Don’t Forget Commodity ETF Exposure in 2025
It’s important that investors remember to rebalance their commodity ETF exposure, particularly as equity ETFs had a strong year in 2024.