If gold were the perfect hedge for inflation—it isn’t—then gold prices divided by the overall price level would be constant over time. However, real gold prices (adjusted for inflation by dividing by the CPI price level) are currently at multi-decade highs.
Investors face persistent behavioral challenges—such as inertia, present bias, and limited attention—that can quietly erode long-term financial outcomes. At Vanguard, we see these cognitive biases not as investor failings, but as opportunities to design digital experiences that are intuitive and easy to use, while nudging investors toward better decisions and stronger financial outcomes.
The recent high-profile bankruptcies and the timing of their collapse are consistent with this changing macro backdrop, although these cases were also allegedly exacerbated by inconsistencies in collateral accounting and pledges.
Energy and commodities are not flashing red. Oil ticked up from depressed levels amid new sanctions on certain Russian producers, but on a multi-month basis crude is still lower, and the broader Bloomberg-style commodity basket has been roughly flat over six to nine months.
Global equity markets have surged this year, in spite of moderate economic growth and an accumulating series of risks. This has led some to worry that valuations have been stretched a little too far. The same can be said of credit markets, which have seen spreads fall to levels last seen in 2007.
A small part of the federal government took a short break from being shut to make sure the Labor Department could deliver the September Consumer Price Index.
Recently, I attended the North American Blockchain Summit 2025, a digital asset conference in Dallas. Last year’s agenda leaned heavily on legislation and policy.
Kinder Morgan (KMI) announced its third-quarter results this week. It reported in-line results as well as a robust outlook for growth. Beyond earnings results, company commentary focused on its so-called shadow backlog and the recently announced binding open season with Phillips 66 (PSX) for the Western Gateway pipeline.
Bold calls to “run to gold, silver, and bitcoin” make for strong headlines, but they oversimplify the reality of modern finance. As we’ve seen, money supply growth is not inherently a sign of debasement but reflects economic expansion. Far from being destructive, government deficits flow directly into private-sector savings and stabilize household balance sheets.
It’s not just the US, China, and Japan that have debt issues. It’s a large portion of the developing countries, and especially Europe. The developed world now has as much debt in terms of GDP as it did during the Napoleonic Wars. And as much or more debt (and growing!) than it did following World War II.
Nuclear-related stocks have seen significant positive momentum this year. In addition to policy tailwinds, investors are recognizing the critical need for reliable, carbon-free power generation for years to come. Nuclear represents a compelling opportunity in that vein.
Technology stocks have continued to benefit from enthusiasm over the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI). Yet many investors are concerned that share prices and valuations may reflect overly exuberant earnings expectations.
As we move into the final quarter of 2025, I’m cautiously optimistic. The extreme policy uncertainty that plagued the first half has diminished significantly. The Fed is cutting rates but not in panic mode. Corporate earnings remain healthy.
While policy and geopolitical risks persist, we believe many countries are better positioned to absorb trade shocks and attract funding. And with spreads near historical lows but yields still elevated, we believe the asset class continues to offer compelling opportunities—particularly in high-yield and select frontier markets.
U.S.-China frictions continue, highlighting that greater volatility is likely not a bug of the current trade stand-off but a feature of the emerging geopolitical landscape.
For many investors, the fear of missing out on market gains is usually second to the pain that comes from taking a loss in their portfolios. This is why many struggle to stay invested during rocky markets.
Many people see the stock market as a casino, but according to Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs and “Mr. Valuation,” the truth is far more rational. How does the stock market work? The market isn’t about luck — it’s a mechanism for allocating capital and rewarding disciplined investors who understand value.
Friday, October 10 was a forgettable day all the way around for risk assets. Those included cryptocurrency and crypto-related equities. The CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) wasn’t immune to the broader market pullback.
JPMAM has converted a major muni bond fund to the ETF wrapper, as muni bond ETF JMUB arrives on the stage.
While the ongoing government shutdown continues to delay the release of many reports, a key piece of economic data managed to break through last week.
Not all low volatility strategies are created equal. The goal may be simple — smoother returns with less risk — but execution determines success. Portfolios built only on historical volatility can leave investors vulnerable.
Up to now, the Federal Reserve and the bond market have been operating under the assumption that the employment setting has been cooling in a somewhat visible fashion. In fact, recent comments from Powell & Co. underscore how the employment aspect of their dual mandate is where the greater risk may lie.
Though deemed to be “Modern” portfolio theory (MPT), the primary framework used to construct diversified portfolios and deliver risk-adjusted investment returns is now well over 50 years old. Enhancements have helped keep MPT’s 60% equity and 40% bond allocation formula relevant for decades.
The Fed’s balance sheet has two sides: On the asset side are Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities—the financial instruments the Fed buys to inject money into the economy. On the liability side are the reserves that banks hold at the Fed, along with physical currency in circulation.
Gold has been top of mind for many investors this week, with prices falling significantly at the start of the week. Despite a strong run in 2025, traditional valuation models suggest gold prices may have become somewhat stretched, creating some fragility in the asset class.
The equity market has shown remarkable resilience over the past two weeks despite rising U.S.-China trade tensions, a spike in equity market volatility, and growing credit concerns tied to business development company (BDC) and regional bank lending losses.
A weakening greenback is being compounded by global de-dollarization and lower interest rates, creating an environment for emerging markets (EM) ETFs to prosper. In turn, more investors are flocking into EM equities, but for more targeted exposure, South Korea could present an intriguing alternative.
For those new to the practice, it’s relatively straightforward. Nearly every investor and advisor has an investment that is on track for a loss this year. Not all investments hit, after all. Selling at a loss helps tamp down a portfolio’s overall gains for the record books, reducing the end-of-year tax bill, “harvesting” losses to offset gains.
The investment case for private assets in DC plans hinges on choosing high-performing managers—specifically those in the top third of the performance spectrum, committing to long holding periods, and accepting the risk of underperformance over time.
After an extended period of surprisingly resilient economic activity, marked by buoyant consumer spending and robust labor market gains, the U.S. economy is shifting gears. The sprint phase, characterized by fiscal tailwinds and pent-up demand, is giving way to a more measured pace.
We believe an OCIO partnership is the stronger choice. With broad access to top-tier managers, scale advantages, deep operational infrastructure and critical resources to oversee risk and capital deployment, OCIOs can often take advantages of opportunities that single-strategy boutiques often cannot.
The centerpiece of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is the extension of current income tax rates and brackets that were due to expire at the end of the year.
To analyze the impact of the Fed’s rate cut on the bond market, we are going to look at the impact of Treasuries maturing between 2 and 10 years and Treasuries maturing between 10 and 30 years. We will explore the month prior to the Fed’s September meeting and the month after, in order to understand the full impact of the Fed’s decision to cut rates.
The interest rate volatility over the last three years has many investors reaching for bond ladders. We think there’s a best number of bonds to navigate the market and, coincidentally, it has something in common with a sci-fi classic.
Aggressive policy changes from Washington have introduced potential long-term economic risks, but markets continue to rally because the near-term conditions remain favorable.
As noted by TMX VettaFi Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth, fixed income ETFs are having a banner year amid record inflows. The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) and Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (BNDX) were two of the top funds responsible for the $325 billion in net inflows (as of October 15).
In a nutshell, the price of silver is rising because there simply isn’t enough metal to meet demand.
By contrast with traditional discretionary approaches, systematic fixed-income models are exclusively data-driven and operate autonomously—ranking securities, constructing optimized portfolios and managing risk without traditional inputs or discretionary overlays.
Earnings season gets underway this week, with reports from major banks providing the first look at corporate performance. The technology sector is expected to be the standout performer with over 20% projected earnings growth, driven by the ongoing "AI arms race".
Broad measures of the U.S. economy are strong. Stock market indices have set new record highs this year.
Even thoughtfully managed strategies may underperform or suffer sharp losses. This can encourage poorly timed emotional decisions that exacerbate the decline. A systematic risk-management framework that employs stop losses can help minimize such behavioral biases.
When most people hear the term “estate planning,” they think of the wealthy or those nearing retirement. However, estate planning is for everyone, regardless of age or net worth.
The U.S. has become the world’s top producer of natural gas liquids (NGLs) thanks to abundant supplies. Rising worldwide demand for plastics and clean fuels has sent U.S. NGL exports soaring, establishing a compelling long-term growth story for midstream players.
Although specific themes come in and out of favor, thematic investing is here to stay, as investors seek diversified exposure to hot new trends and industry disruption.
The de facto “passive” allocation of 60% equities/40% bonds has proven effective at compounding wealth over time by tapping into two key risk premia: the equity risk premium earned by underwriting the risk of an economic growth shock and an inflation risk premium received for bearing the risk of surprise inflation.
While markets have been focused on the expected trajectory of short-term interest rates through Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut expectations, the Fed’s balance sheet has recently come into focus as well.
Northern Trust Asset Management provided justification for the mounting interest in munis in the fixed income space.
Over the last few years, the US housing market has defied expectations as prices, helped by constrained supply, have remained resilient—despite high mortgage rates and affordability challenges for homebuyers. But the outlook appears to be darkening, with recent headlines seizing on potentially adverse trends.
They may have never encountered unidentified flying objects, but something savvy investors can identify with is outperformance. And the Procure Space ETF (UFO) has been doing just that this year: outperforming the S&P 500 with an over 60% gain.
I want to discuss a different approach to portfolio management with you today. Rather, how to think like a “bear,” so you see the risks of the speculative bull run. However, to act like a “bull” to capture the gains while available. But that is a difficult skill to master.
