Wall Street Horizon

Have no fear—ETFs tracking crude oil, natural gas, and even wholesale gasoline futures are at the ready.

With one month left in the quarter, M&A is running a little light compared to the record-breaking close of 2025. According to Wall Street Horizon’s coverage universe of 11,000 global equities, there have been 59 M&A announcements and 78 closes as of March 2.

March came in like a lion. Stock market futures plunged last Sunday night following U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. WTI and Brent crude oil had surged 7% by the following morning, along with big gains in gold.

As the Q4 earnings season draws to a close, the market finds itself at a crossroads of record-breaking AI growth and shifting fiscal policy.

It’s a short week for traders and portfolio managers, but a long one for those dissecting macro data points. FOMC Minutes hits before a slew of mid-tier economic updates on Thursday. Friday morning could be the big reveal, with growth and inflation numbers followed by bellwether business and consumer surveys.

Volatility was once again the theme in US markets last week as a profound alpha rotation reshapes Wall Street. Investors continued to flee mega-cap tech, software stocks, and anything considered an AI loser, in favor of more cyclical sectors such as energy, materials and industrials.

Push will come to shove in the weeks ahead as tech executives take questions at key investor conferences over the back half of the first quarter.

The AI spending scare that rattled investors during Microsoft’s earnings call nearly two weeks ago intensified last week as Alphabet and Amazon followed suit. On Wednesday, Google’s parent company reported record annual revenues exceeding $400 billion and a 48% surge in Google Cloud growth.

Tech stocks and the AI trade have powered global markets ever since the bull run began in October 2022.

Headline whiplash returned to US equity markets last week, but this time the drama wasn't geopolitical. On Thursday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.3% as the market digested mixed results from some Magnificent Seven earnings reports.

The real hero of the late-week recovery was the Information Technology sector. Despite a jarring 16% slide from Intel (INTC) following a tepid outlook shared on their Q4 2025 earnings call, the broader semiconductor space and "Magnificent Seven" megacaps provided the necessary ballast.

It was a sea of red to kick off the holiday-shortened trading week yesterday. President Trump’s ambition to annex part or all of Greenland drew backlash from European leaders.

After rising to its highest level in four years during the last quarter of 2024, the Late Earnings Report Index, our proprietary measure of CEO uncertainty, has now recorded five consecutive quarterly readings below the historical benchmark as companies prepare to report their Q4 results.

We’ll call it a steady year for the box office in 2025. A handful of big-time flicks are on deck for the holidays, while studios hope for an improved macro backdrop to drive bigger numbers next year.

Plenty of official economic data is already coming down the market’s chimney, much to the delight of our partners at Econoday. Now that the pesky government shutdown is over, the pace of macro updates is set to accelerate as we head into the end of 2025.

Retail earnings ahead of Black Friday show a clear split: value-focused discounters like TJX and Walmart are thriving, while Target and home improvement stores struggle with consumer pullback on discretionary items. This shift reflects broader economic pressure, as consumers trade down due to high prices, weakening income sentiment, and increased reliance on credit.

With peak earnings season now in the rearview mirror, the market's focus shifts from broad-based results to specific, unresolved questions. Last week's tech sell-off and mixed IPO fortunes have put a spotlight on valuations, making Nvidia's upcoming report a critical test for the entire AI sector.

It's been a minute since we’ve touched on traditional stock splits. Our last look at this type of share-price engineering came in Q2, when reverse ETF splits were happening all around us. For individual investors, when a company’s management team chooses to split its stock, it can have more impactful implications for longer-run returns.

Q3 Earnings growth continues to improve, with 64% of constituents reporting thus far, S&P 500® EPS growth for Q3 2025 accelerated to 10.7%

Earnings season gets underway this week, with reports from major banks providing the first look at corporate performance. The technology sector is expected to be the standout performer with over 20% projected earnings growth, driven by the ongoing "AI arms race".

According to Wall Street Horizon’s proprietary data, Q3 2025 marked a record in the number of new U.S. ETF launches. The tally (above 200) brought the trailing four-quarter sum to more than 800. Investors have never had more choice to tweak their strategies, aim for higher income yields, or even bet on single stocks in new, creative ways.

Earnings season kicks into high gear this week, with the big banks unofficially firing the starting gun on Tuesday.

American companies continue to buy back their shares at a record pace in 2025. This has not only padded balance sheets but it’s helped drive the stock market rally that’s persisted since the April 8 trough.

The latest read on the US labor market will be out this Friday, October 3, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, average hourly earnings and other metrics.

Dividend-increase announcements are on the rise. According to the Wall Street Horizon research team, 71.9% of all dividend changes have been positive so far in 2025.

According to our IPO data, licensed from IPOScoop, six companies IPO’d last week, kicking off with the long-awaited debut from Swedish payments company Klarna (KLAR) on Wednesday.

Last week's employment update seems likely to prompt a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The August jobs report revealed a significant slowdown, with Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increasing by only 22,000, well below the 75,000 expectation from economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings are the focus tonight, but investors’ attention will quickly shift back to the macro later this week. According to our Economic Calendar, with data licensed from Econoday Inc., a second read on Q2 GDP hits the tape Thursday morning.

Last week, a tech rout that began on Tuesday led to notable declines in the Nasdaq Composite (-2.5%) and S&P 500 (-1.2%) by market close on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average roughly flat. Investors engaged in profit-taking, amidst concerns about the high valuations of many technology companies.

July CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales are in the rearview mirror, and investors now look ahead to a trio of key potential macro volatility catalysts this week.

This week, the focus shifts to US retailers, particularly after recent economic data.

As we move through the final peak week of earnings season, the blended growth rate for S&P 500 has now moved into the double digits, hitting 11.8% with 90% companies reporting.

The IPO floodgates have swung open for breakthrough AI and crypto companies ready to shake up the market

Another week of stellar earnings led to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hitting record levels by Thursday, but what a difference a day makes.

Bitcoin and gold share the same year-to-date return, both up 28% through July 16. So far, 2025 has been the year of diversification, thanks to hefty gains in international stocks, a positive (though rocky) return in the bond market, and tailwinds in the alternative asset space.

The big banks kicked off earnings season last week when they reported results for the second quarter.

Investors may be happy to shift some of their focus away from the ongoing tariff saga and back toward economic data and earnings reports.

As the second quarter earnings season kicks into gear, Wall Street analysts are forecasting modest earnings growth of 4.8% for companies in the S&P 500.

As we head into the second half of the year, expect record stock buyback activity for companies in the S&P 500.

Many small deals have done through, including ones from overseas, and an active calendar of corporate shareholder meetings could offer fresh insights into capital plans.

As we head into the second half of the year, US markets seem to be turning around, with economic data​ that is still coming in mixed. The major US indices were up the first three days of last week, dipping on Thursday after weaker back-to-back readings of the US labor market.

The muted IPO market which has become commonplace in the last few years continued in that fashion through the first five months of 2025. However, the last few weeks has brought a renewed focus to dealmaking after a couple of highly anticipated IPOs began trading, and a cryptocurrency unicorn filed to IPO.

The retailers are closing out the season in their usual fashion, but the early results have been mixed as they deal with headwinds ranging from a softening US consumer to impending tariffs.

The Q1 2025 earnings season heads into its final peak week with mostly positive results from S&P 500 companies thus far. With 90% of companies from the index now reporting, 78% have beaten Wall Street’s expectations, slightly better than what we’ve seen historically.

S&P 500^® earnings per share estimates have come down sharply. According to FactSet, calendar year 2025 is now expected to show $266 in operating EPS for the Index.

Results from some of the Magnificent 7 names last week reignited the AI trade. Both Meta and Microsoft reported after-the-bell on Wednesday, blowing past analyst estimates

Peak earnings season kicks off this week, with 7,600 companies, or 70% of our equity universe expected to report over the next three weeks.

With many of the big financial reports out of the way, the S&P 500 blended EPS growth rate for Q1 stands at 7.2%. Thus far only 12% of S&P 500 constituents have released results.

Banks blew Q1 earnings expectations out of the water, benefitting from high trading volumes, but CEO commentary remains cautious for 2025.

Q1 earnings season is about to kick off amidst what some might consider to be the most uncertain environment for US corporations since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Investors just can’t get enough of ETFs, and issuers are more than happy to oblige. Through the middle of last week—still with a handful of days left in the quarter—208 new U.S. ETFs were launched in Q1, according to Wall Street Horizon data.

Last year was a record for S&P 500® stock buybacks, led by the now “Lag 7” companies, though the SPX buyback yield dropped to a 2-year low.

With only eight trading days left in the first quarter, M&A announcements are set to come in at their lowest level since Q2 2020.

March came in like a lion, much to the bears’ delight. The S&P 500® plunged from its February 19 high on the heels of stern tariff talk and phrases like “a little bit of an adjustment period” from President Trump and the economy entering a “detox period,” as Treasury Secretary Bessent said last week.

Volatility is back in town. Tariff jitters and concerns about growth and inflation have resulted in an S&P 500® dip and the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) jumping above 20. Investors grapple with a very sanguine backdrop painted by the fourth-quarter earnings season and policy uncertainty.

The fourth quarter 2024 earnings season more-or-less wraps up this week with the final trickle of retailers coming in, as well as the highly anticipated report from Nvidia which was out yesterday afternoon.

Earnings season is winding down, and the spotlight will soon shift toward 2025 trends after an impressive end to last year.

Tech results last week were more anticipated than usual due to the emergence of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek in the prior week.

January is in the books, and markets are still waiting on a big rebound in the dealmaking space. Investors rooting for increased M&A and a flurry of IPOs will have to be patient as Q1 tracks with continued low counts on both fronts.

The Magnificent 7 kicked off fourth quarter reporting in a similar fashion to the Q3 season. Tesla once again missed expectations when they reported on Wednesday, on both the top and bottom-line this time (vs. only missing on revenues in Q3), yet investors seemed unbothered.

Big US banks marked the beginning of the Q4 earnings season when they released results last week, and overall they were positive. Because of their position opening up the earnings season they tend to set the tone for things to come.

Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.

The same themes that drove sharp 2024 returns among the Magnificent 7 stocks appear to be very much alive in the new year.

The S&P 500 earnings growth rate will likely come in just below the 6% mark for the third quarter.

Uncertainty ahead of the election may have resulted in lower corporate capex and M&A trends, but hope abounds that 2025 could bring about renewed animal spirits.

The Q3 earnings season is coming to a close in its usual fashion, with a word from retailers. With 93% of S&P 500 companies reporting at this point, YoY S&P 500 EPS growth has settled around 5.4%, while revenue growth increased 5.5% for the quarter.

In many ways it didn’t matter what those answers were, just that they were out of the way and investors and US companies could begin to plan accordingly for Q4, 2025 and beyond.

There’s a problem brewing in the world of ETFs: We are running out of ticker symbols. Bloomberg recently reported that, with so many new funds hitting the marketplace in recent years, issuers are forced to produce catchy four-letter ticker symbols rather than the more eye-pleasing three-letter abbreviations.

Looking ahead to the post-November 5th world, three Analyst Days caught our team’s attention. NXP Semiconductor (NXPI), CSX (CSX), and ASML Holding (ASML) each hold events that may shed light on key cyclical areas of the global economy.

The bar is raised for Q3. With a handful of earnings reports delivered from major banks, companies from other sectors begin now to report results to the street.

The wait is over for earnings watchers, as the latest quarterly read on US corporations kicks off with reports from JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo on Friday. Earnings will provide a gut check on the state of the US economy, and investors will be looking for these results to confirm the mostly improving economic data that’s been released in the last month or so.

After falling to their lowest level last year (in Wall Street Horizon's eight years of data), the total number of announced global corporate buybacks has been improving throughout 2024.

Conference season brings about its own set of volatility catalysts. Portfolio managers and traders must keep their ears out for clues on the state of the broad economy, specific industries, and individual companies.

This year, the bears have asserted themselves after the bulls controlled the first half. Shares of companies that recently announced stock splits are well off their highs, generally not benefiting from the historical trend of outperformance.