Northern Trust

When and how will new policies take shape?

To clear our notebooks entering 2025, here are quick perspectives on a range of topics.

We prefer equities over fixed income, in particular U.S. equities as the outlook for the U.S. economy is solid and promising.

We look back on six themes that defined another eventful year.

We believe that there are several guardrails in place that considerably limit the extent of presidential influence over monetary policy decisions.

As the year comes to a busy conclusion, we’re still catching up with news that didn’t make the front page. In the first week of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics published a data release that’s even less frequent than the four year presidential election cycle.

Last weekend, the Cathedral of Notre Dame reopened after being severely damaged in a fire five years ago. It took thousands of craftsmen and a reported €840 million to restore the iconic structure.

International commerce often follows the simple rule: one nation’s loss can result in another’s gain. China’s loss from escalating trade tensions with the U.S. is generating gains for several Asian economies, but India is not one of them.

How a diversified liquidity strategy might help time-strapped corporate treasurers reduce vulnerabilities and improve adaptability in uncertain markets while maintaining access to cash.

We expect high yield bond issuers to maintain healthy balance sheets and defaults to remain low.

We examine how a potentially complex bond market in 2025 could still offer opportunities in high-yield bonds, municipal bonds, and inflation-protected securities.

We are prone to animal analogies when describing disorderly situations: like herding cats, like a barrel full of monkeys, like a dog’s breakfast.

Not everyone is ready to give thanks for moderating food prices.

New ideas are never as easy as they sound in campaigns.

Sticky underlying price pressures could prevent a faster return to neutral monetary policy.

Lost in the excitement of election week was a meeting of the Federal Reserve. At its conclusion, interest rates were lowered by another quarter-point. But where they are heading from here is a matter of increasing uncertainty.

In sport, play is limited by time or innings. Lineups are set, rules are fixed and boundaries are defined. Winners are determined objectively.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, inflation and interest rates.

The people have spoken. While there are still some unknowns, the contours of the American government that will be seated next January are reasonably clear.

Western economies are inching towards soft landings, and their central banks are reducing interest rates. These developments will be helpful to economies in the Asia-Pacific region as they conclude 2024 and look forward to next year. However, the outlook for China remains a central concern.

The election is unlikely to influence monetary policy.

Enthusiasm for structural reforms is only going to wane.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates in major markets.

Our analysis explores how potential post-election tax policy changes might impact dividends, capital gains, and municipal bonds and how investors might prepare for different election outcomes.

Equities continued to climb in Q3, with fixed income remaining steady despite international conflicts, inflationary pressure, and election-related uncertainty in the United States.

State and municipal budgets are adjusting to life after pandemic interventions.

An independent central bank supports better economic and market outcomes.

With the election looming, investors should prepare for potential changes in tax policies, particularly given the impending sunset of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

The regulatory outlook is a question of direction more than extent.

Global oil markets are working through many disruptions.

Energy policy decisions today will have long-lasting implications.

Asia-Pacific economies will benefit from soft landings and easier monetary conditions.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, inflation and interest rates.

New business formations have held up, but closures are also rising.

The election could alter the thriving relations between the U.S. and Europe.

The need for old age support is on the rise, as is its cost.

The latest S&P 500 rebalance introduced Dell and Palantir to the index, and Apple’s weight grew with annual float changes, signaling technology’s ongoing influence.

Our research shows that on average U.S. stocks performed well a year after the start of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle.

Tougher stances on trade are a point of bipartisan agreement.

Sports fans know that a lot can change in the fourth quarter of a game. So too for the U.S. economy, as a substantial labor action commenced the minute that calendars turned to the fourth quarter of 2024.

Policymakers have recognized China's slower economy.

Our experts explore the implications of wider S&P 500 earnings growth, potential Fed rate cuts, and the outlook for global equities and bonds amidst ongoing economic shifts.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates in major markets.

Tax cuts are popular but not affordable for most nations.

The next president will face a difficult fiscal context.

Fiscal responsibility is not a priority in this election.

Since mid-2022, when the Federal Reserve was in the midst of its aggressive hiking cycle, investors piled over $1.6 trillion into money market funds, which include Treasury bills.

The Northern Trust Economics team reacts to the Fed's decision and shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment and inflation.

MSCI boosted India’s weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and reduced China’s in its latest quarterly rebalance, continuing long-term trends.

With attractive valuations, emerging market equities look like a good opportunity. A factor investing strategy, designed well, may enhance performance and help manage some key risks.

How rapidly should the Fed cut rates?

States enter fiscal 2025 maintaining stable reserves and moderating fixed costs, yet we expect many will need to make modest spending cuts due to exhaustion of federal pandemic aid.

Passive fixed income index investing has evolved significantly over the previous decade, offering investors the flexibility to align risk requirements and investment goals. Learn more from our experts.

Labor shortfalls will become the norm in advanced economies.

The next U.S. president will face immediate fiscal challenges.

The BRICS Pay initiative aims to better integrate currencies for trade and facilitate cross-border transactions among its members.

We think the decline in the S&P 500 Index on Tuesday may be more technical than fundamental.

Money can still be a factor in inflation.

A bright spot in Chinese investment could spell trouble for its financial institutions.

The case for infrastructure investment is rising, but so are its costs.

While short-term fluctuations and sudden selloffs have tested the markets, key indicators such as corporate profits, employment data, and economic resilience have held firm.

We analyze Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s comments about the potential for rate cuts in September and beyond.

A Soft Landing Scenario Is Still a Realistic Base Case.

The 19th Century American author Mark Twain once said: “Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one’s lifetime.”

That anthem was characteristic of the era. After two decades of economic frustration, free market policies had prompted a surge of growth and a bull market for stocks. The captains of industry were corporate raiders, who purchased companies, slashed expenses, pushed up prices and reaped outsized rewards.

We explore how strong fundamentals and a resilient economy may position high-yield bonds as a potentially compelling choice in today’s fluctuating market.

Last week, we explored the old economic rules that falsely predicted an imminent recession. Losing those guideposts has complicated our efforts to craft an outlook.

Powell will hint at normalizing monetary policy, but at a measured pace.

The tea trade has lessons for today’s global commerce.

Previously reliable recession signals have not worked in this cycle.

The Bank of Japan needs to proceed cautiously.

Slower employment cements the case for the Fed to start a series of rate cuts.

North American trade is booming, but gains have been uneven.

The strong currency is neither a blessing nor a curse.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates in major markets.

Today’s passive index investing requires active choices, as customization and innovations in index funds have resulted in new considerations for investors and the potential for greater control.

I chaired an international economics conference in Canada earlier this month. Delegates from all over the world attended to discuss the issues of the day. Following is an abridged version of the meeting summary that I offered during the closing session.

Western demand and monetary policy are having an important impact on economic prospects for the Asia-Pacific region.

Slower spending is a part of the return to normal economic conditions.

Metals from Mexico may have a much further point of origin.

Analysts periodically construct elegant algorithms that produce interesting conclusions, only to learn that the underlying information is flawed.

The Federal Reserve is in the pilot’s seat as the American economy approaches a soft landing. The runway is in sight, but some careful maneuvering will still be needed.

The initiation of the excessive deficit procedure will hinder European unity.

History suggests that it is better to embrace progress than hinder it.

Explore the complexities of the high-yield market through comprehensive insights from our experts.

The addition of Dell Technologies and Super Micro boosted the weighting to the technology sector. We also analyze changes to the value and growth indexes.

Tariffs do more harm than good to nations that impose them.

Rebalancing events help ensure benchmarks maintain exposure to companies within their targeted asset class or markets, but the rebalancing can also impact investment portfolios.

We review the key themes of the first half of a busy year.

Initial rate cuts by the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada may signal a transformative trend toward monetary easing.

Adapting to the new cycles requires swift operational changes, making the guidance of experienced managers crucial.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets, with a spotlight on the eurozone.

Chief U.S. Economist Ryan Boyle explains why measures of inflation don't match feelings about prices.

Higher education is one among many paths to success.

The allure of China as a global manufacturing hub is unlikely to fade anytime soon.

Lower inflation does not mean lower prices.

The health of the British economy is top of mind for voters in this election.

An array of data sources show a labor market that still has plenty of strength.

Mining brings economic benefit and environmental costs.

High-yield credit is experiencing strong inflows and investor confidence, potentially offering attractive returns and reduced volatility compared to other risk assets.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.

Despite a seemingly Hawkish stance, a closer look suggests the Fed’s conservative inflation estimates could lead to more rate cuts than anticipated.

Mexico has momentum to meet demands from reshoring.

European disinflation allowed for a first cut, but the pace from here will be gradual.

I will never forget the first auction I witnessed. It took place during one of the many summers that I spent on a farm. The auctioneer talked exceedingly quickly, but those in the crowd seemed to understand everything he said.

European value stocks offer a compelling case for short- and long-term investment opportunities, supported by strong fundamentals, attractive valuations, and favorable market conditions.

Summer hiring promises more than just monetary rewards for teens.

This year's venture to Asia was informative and delicious.

Investors are reconsidering long-term capital commitments.

Home equity lending does not require policy support.

Lower interest rates in Europe will favor spending over saving.

New tariffs will renew trade tensions.

European value stocks offer a compelling case for short- and long-term investment opportunities, supported by strong fundamentals, attractive valuations, and favorable market conditions.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, employment, inflation and interest rates in major markets.

The price gap between eating out and cooking at home is rising.

However we measure inflation, we see an incomplete recovery.

Will the rapid growth of private credit impair financial stability?

We explore how stabilization and growth of global markets may potentially shift preferences toward equities relative to bonds.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.

Sanctions have not been as powerful as expected.

Skepticism is warranted when inflation stories exclude bad news.

AI adoption will dent the fight against climate change.

Hong Kong's prospects are closely linked to the outlook for China.

The FOMC has enough factors to consider without adding politics to the mix.

The stronger U.S. dollar is benefiting America, but creating troubles in other geographies.

There are attractive investment opportunities in private credit against a backdrop of a U.S. economy that continues to outpace the eurozone and the U.K.

We saw a dovish slant to Powell’s remarks at yesterday’s press conference, with no rate hikes in sight.

For investors considering adding small-cap stocks to their equity portfolios, we suggest they do it selectively, steering clear of more speculative investments.

Having played sports my whole life, there is hardly an outdoor activity which I haven’t tried. I have been known to skip irksome social gatherings just to get out on to the fields.

Government economic intervention has persisted since the pandemic.

Financial stability is much improved since last year's stress.

Amid economic challenges, increased dispersion in high yield bonds suggests opportunities for selective investment choices versus broad sector-based strategies.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, employment, inflation and interest rates in major markets.

Demand for copper is on the rise. Can its supply keep pace?

Debt distress is rising fast, but restructuring is becoming more complex.

Dr. Bernanke found significant shortcomings in the BoE's forecasting.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key APAC markets.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.

The Chinese yuan is softening in line with the nation's economic outlook.

We had expected the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates in June. But as more of our audiences asked why, we saw the case was not strong. This week’s inflation reading seals the deal: we now expect the easing cycle to start in September.

We’ve covered some of the issues related to America’s fiscal crisis in recent months.

Analysis of Q1 2024’s equity market reveals the stage is likely set for a favorable equities market for the remainder of 2024.

Water raises the risks of conflict, civil unrest and economic pain in many parts of the world.

Immigration is coming up everywhere, including economic data.

Daniel Kahneman will be missed. But his work on behavioral economics will forever be with us.

Evidence of overstretched households is emerging, which could threaten the soft landing scenario.

Negative interest rates have more cons than clear pros.

We need a much more conservative approach to projecting budget outcomes.

The negative rate experiment has ended. What comes next?

Cautious investment is holding back the outlook for European nations.

More charging stations and lower prices can break EV sales out of their slump.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets, with a spotlight on China.

Shelter costs are keeping inflation measures elevated.

Europe needs to boost defense spending while managing stretched fiscal positions.

Corporate taxes illustrate the complexity of global policy coordination.

Climate risks and regulations are on the rise.

Food prices are dragging down feelings about the economy.

The World Trade Organization is struggling to settle international tensions.

Japan's prolonged downturn has lessons for other nations at inflection points.

European nations still have a long energy transition ahead.

Consumers are less willing to spend freely.

The current housing shortage has been long in the making.

Immigration is a vital source of economic growth.

One of the pleasant surprises of 2023 was how quickly inflation decelerated in major economies. Most of the good news came from falling goods prices.

The challenges in banks' portfolios will work out over time.

When consumers fall behind, the credit card bill goes unpaid.

Over the past two years, we have had to revise a lot of numbers upward: the Fed hiked rates more than we expected, inflation has been sticky and growth has far exceeded expectations.

As the U.S economy continues to expand at a nice rate of speed, the eurozone is stuck in a pitstop. Though the common currency region was able to avoid a technical recession last year, preliminary estimates show that activity stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is often considered the most important indicator of the health of an economy. But there are other measures that provide different perspectives, which can be more timely and impartial. The level of equity markets is one such indicator that provides a window into what’s going on.

Small businesses are a vital part of the American economy. The U.S. Small Business Administration estimates that they represent over 46% of employment and account for the majority of new job creation. Small business openings are an expression of optimism in an entrepreneur’s ability and support from their community.

Saving rates rose immensely across economies during the pandemic period. Government support programs, many designed to stimulate demand, elevated household incomes.

Can inflation continue to decline, and what will drive it down?

This week saw the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland. Top researchers join public and private sector leaders to explore the issues facing the world. Every year features an outlook for key risks; this year, the risks felt less hypothetical than they might have in calmer times.

There are about 44 million American men between the ages of 25 and 44, a time of life which is traditionally associated with high rates of employment. Yet members of this cohort are much less likely to be working than they were 20 years ago.

The Fed’s balance sheet could stabilize this year, but details are unclear.

The likelihood of another severe bout of inflation from higher shipping costs alone is low.

The higher level of U.S. oil production is helping to keep global prices contained.

EU nations have compromised on paths toward fiscal balance.

Progress on a 2024 U.S. federal budget has been limited.

The promise of GLP-1 drugs goes far beyond individual weight loss.

The economics team shares a few things that have been on our minds.

The economics teams looks back at the most significant stories we covered during 2023.

The ECB will pivot in 2024, but probably not as early or swiftly as markets predict.

The secular forces that held down rates for forty years have not entirely changed.

American consumers are becoming more frugal this holiday season.

Both supply and demand of workers will prevent a surge in unemployment rates.

The Canadian economy is buckling under the weight of higher interest rates, household debt and immigration.

Food prices illustrate several challenges of containing inflation.

Both supply and demand of workers will prevent a surge in unemployment rates.

The potency of monetary policy will weigh more heavily on activity in 2024.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.

Companies are rethinking office space.

Housing markets are cooling but unlikely to end in a bust.

Financial flows have shifted this year. In the credit arena, bank lending has been moribund throughout the year, as standards tightened and interest rates rose. But borrowers still need capital, and private lenders are increasingly meeting their needs.

The banking system has stabilized, but latent threats remain.

Households are better off today than before the pandemic.

Forecasting economic outcomes is a challenging exercise, even under steady conditions. Geopolitical events have only added to the complexity facing economies worldwide.

The longer the U.S. debt is left to grow, the harder it will be to correct.

The U.S. economy’s remarkable resilience is complicating the lives of investors and the Federal Reserve. Despite war-disrupted commodity markets and one of the most aggressive monetary tightening phases in modern history, economic activity has remained strong.

Higher long-term bond yields will allow the Fed to do less on short rates.

Women are still underrepresented among economics majors and in a range of professions.

Reverting to old fiscal rules will create a strong economic headwind for Europe.

Older workers can still be a source of relief for tight labor markets.

New bank rules will raise borrowing costs and weigh on economic activity.

The BoE will have to do more to bring inflation back down to target.

India will need to think beyond physical assets to continue its growth.

Resurgent energy prices could contribute to higher for longer monetary policy.

The strike comes at an inflection point for automotive production.

Evidence of China's slowdown is appearing in unexpected places.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.

The FOMC will make some close calls and tough decisions.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.

Measuring, anticipating and controlling the cost of healthcare are all difficult.

Higher yields on cash have allowed some de-risking.

A hard landing in China would rattle Asian economies.

Restricting the money supply will help contain inflation.

Credit balances are not the only consumer indicator running high.

The Fed's asset portfolio is on an uncharted course.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.

Volatile rates are adding to the cost of residential debt.

Disrupted global trade is weighing on Germany's performance.

Holding expectations low will help the battle against high prices.

Workers are finding a fresh enthusiasm for organizing.

Supply chains are realigning, to China's dismay.

Better productivity is easing employers' burden of higher wages.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.

Return to office mandates are growing, but workers are hesitant to give up flexibility.

Young workers are struggling to find jobs, despite labor shortages.

Geopolitics is driving new interest in industrial policy.

Public and private projects are fueling a new building boom.

The common currency has not led to common outcomes.

The nation's complex and contentious fiscal processes are deemed a credit risk.

The outlook for the British economy is sub-par.

How will we tell if the mythical soft landing is happening?

A change in Turkey's economic policies was long overdue.

A favorable inflation report is just one step in a long journey.

China's re-opening surge did not last.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.

El Niño will test the resilience of both infrastructure and food supply chains.

Corporate profits are being challenged by market forces, diminishing pricing power.

Japan may uniquely benefit from a wage-price spiral.

An upturn in residential activity may be the next inflation challenge.

Income-driven repayment will ease the burden of resuming student loan payments.

Low commodity prices are containing inflation in emerging markets.

There is renewed anxiety among central bankers in the face of sticky inflation.

Economies are struggling to shake off effects of COVID.

We review the key themes of the first half of a busy year.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates, and inflation.

Volatile input prices have been a major inflationary force.

Sunsetting a core benchmark rate is no small feat.

A perennial challenge faced by all big or small, developed or developing economies is achieving sustainable economic growth that boosts standards of living and financial stability. Globalization has been the road that brought economies to that destination.

In many respects, COVID-19 was not a temporary disruption.

Inflation is one way the U.K. is paying for leaving Europe.

A debt ceiling deal is within sight.

Transit has not made a complete recovery from the pandemic.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.

Hong Kong’s currency and financial stability are not under immediate threat.

Both domestic and external forces may limit China's growth prospects.

The worst may be over for residential investment.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates, and inflation.

Macroeconomic and geopolitical hurdles are slowing the full recovery of tourism.

What follows a technical default? We hope we will not need to find out.

A wage-price spiral isn't imminent in Europe, but inflation may take a while to descend.

The Fed's tools for managing interest rates are adding to deposit competition.

The 2011 U.S. reality television show Doomsday Preppers showed an uncommon side of life, spotlighting families that prepared to survive extreme, potentially fatal scenarios. Their plans included accumulating a surplus of food, fuel, and other essentials, all of which came at a cost.

The Fed is likely to lay the groundwork for a pause, and push back against an early pivot.

We favor high yield bonds and natural resource stocks as inflation still shows persistence, earnings expectations deteriorate and worries mount over a stalling U.S. economy.

The latest IMF reports shows the mounting risks facing emerging markets.

The disruption in office real estate is outlasting the term on its loans.

How will tighter lending standards become evident in the economy?

Financial volatility continues to moderate amid settling in the banking sector. Economic data in much of the world has remained positive. But a slowdown is in store. Businesses and households will have a harder time borrowing as credit conditions tighten further. Financial risks have risen.

Housing stress may spread to other sectors.

Technology enhancements have increased the speed of panic.

The dollar's strengths still outweigh its weaknesses.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.

The case for a central bank digital currency has many shortcomings.

Money market funds are attracting deposits for more reasons than just SVB.

The risk of Japanese inflation getting out of control is not high.

If I did not have bad luck, I would have no luck at all.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.

The demise of a major bank illustrates the global tensions in the financial sector.

The fallout from SVB will make the Fed's job more difficult.

The full story of SVB is still unfolding, but we offer some initial reactions.

Elevated job openings may not give an accurate view of labor market conditions.

If marked to market, assets purchased during quantitative easing are in the red.

Can India capitalize on supply chain realignment to build its manufacturing sector?

History shows a high risk of recession when central banks fight inflation.

A revised approach to Northern Ireland will lower trade tensions in Europe.

Artificial intelligence will reshape how a lot of work gets done.

A drawdown to fight energy inflation has left the SPR at a new low.

If marked to market, assets purchased during quantitative easing are in the red.

The war has been tremendously costly, in Ukraine and beyond.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.

The U.S. needs to put in more effort at home to maintain its technological edge.

The auto industry is navigating through shifting conditions in trade, policy, and preferences.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.

Time out of school is still weighing on student performance.

Mexico is downstream of shifting trade winds.

Differing economic cycles and limited trade links will make the sur unfeasible.

Inflation has turned a corner, but not yet for food.

Markets are no longer shocked by central bank tightening.

Inflation is a mixed picture, with services staying hot.

Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.

Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.

America's subsidies for domestic EVs have created new tensions with Europe.

A fiscal disruption could do great damage to the U.S. economy.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.

Many older workers who left the workforce during the pandemic may not return to the labor market.

Workers and managers are in a tug-of-war over return to office policies.

U.S. consumers did not slow their spending over the holidays.

A surprising shift in Japan's monetary policy.

The economics teams looks back at the most significant stories we covered during 2022.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for inflation, growth, employment and interest rates.

Central banks are incurring losses.

The recent escalation in interest rates is squeezing household budgets.

Disabled workers are helping close the labor gap thanks to remote work.

Europe needs higher investments, which will only be possible with an overhaul of its fiscal rules.

Inflation has spread to our holiday celebrations.

China is still far from open for business as usual.

A split government will limit aggressive agendas and progress on important longer-term issues.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for inflation, growth, employment and interest rates.

The Fed will keep hiking, but at a slower pace.

The Fed needs to carefully mop up excess liquidity to avoid funding stress.

Governments will have to resist the temptation to address stagflation with stimulus.

Internal priorities and external circumstances have brought China's growth to an inflection point.

After a strong rebound from the pandemic in 2021, it’s been all downhill for the global economy this year. Economic activity is being hindered as policymakers cope with the hottest inflation in decades, impairments from the Ukraine war, and China’s prolonged lockdowns. Recession fears are starting to come true.

Renewed increases in energy prices come at a bad time in the battle against inflation.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, employment, inflation and interest rates.

Hurricane Ian has laid bare the challenges facing Florida’s insurance industry.

Evidence of a cooling labor market is emerging.

A path remains in sight for the U.S. to avoid a recession.

Policy responses to shortages are not always effective.

The pandemic drove up debt, and higher interest rates are adding to the burden.

Populations are aging, and the economic consequences will be substantial.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.

Writing off a portion of student debt does not fix the core challenges of paying for higher education.

The pandemic surge in demand for houses has run its course.

The war against inflation will be won when we no longer need to worry about it.

Workers take time to reach their full potential in new jobs.

Scarcity and trade frictions are leading to major supply chain realignments.

A long negotiation cycle yields green investment, a smaller deficit and higher corporate taxes.

The tourism industry remains vulnerable to macroeconomic, public health and geopolitical risks.

Household, corporate and bank balance sheets are more resilient today than during past crises.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.

Labor force participation is the greatest shortfall in an otherwise thriving labor market.

Major EMs are more resilient to U.S. interest rate hikes today than they were in past cycles.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.

A more integrated global economy is making sanctions less effective.

Office spaces still have a role in the future of work.

The availability of goods and cost of shipping are improving.

New signs of stress are evident in China's property market.

New signs of stress are evident in China's property market.

What drove the U.S. dollar's surge, and can it last?

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.

Shinzo Abe's policies had a substantial impact both in Japan and around the world.

Reducing the money supply will help to curtail inflation.

Markets are expecting lower gasoline prices ahead.

Though risks are rising, strong hiring and purchase activity suggest that the economy can keep growing.

Revenue above expectations, pandemic federal aid and reserves have strengthened states' financial outlook. But states will need to prepare as pandemic aid winds down and the economy slows.

Inflation, China, Russia, Central Banks, Labor, Recession: It's been quite a year thus far.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.

Sustainable investing needs to adapt to new realities without compromising its core principles.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.

The world needs a stronger World Trade Organization.

How high do interest rates have to go to control inflation?

What will be the Fed's next steps after a rapid course correction?

Not all value strategies have benefited equally during value stocks’ recent outperformance versus growth stocks.

Japan zero-inflation mindset is no match for today's price pressures.

A cooler housing market isn't a bad outcome.

Strong employment and spending will help the economy grow through current shocks.

Wedding costs reflect the myriad forces that have driven inflation upward.

Policymakers and forecasters were slow to change their mindset about inflation.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.

When life gives you lemons: sell them!

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.

RMB depreciation won't offer much support to Chinese growth.

The Fed has set the stage for a series of rapid rate hikes.

The Fed will need some luck on its side to deliver another soft landing.

Draghi has put the Italian economy back on track, but challenges remain.

Drug abuse and long-haul COVID are obstacles to getting back to work.

The risk of an imminent recession is low, but next year is anyone's guess.

The dollar is not as dominant as it was two decades ago, but is still the leading global currency.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.

China's zero-COVID approach will undermine its position as the supply chain hub of the world.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.

What role do financial statements play in climate change?

The first quarter of 2022 brought violence that rocked communities – and markets – internationally. We look at what aftershocks may still be yet to come.

Output is not falling, but the amount of energy required to fuel that activity is diminishing.

The Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in years has sparked bond volatility, pushing investors to search for yield elsewhere.

The yield curve's movements are unlikely to change the Fed's course.

India's economic links with Russia leave it in a delicate position.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.

The war in Ukraine will weigh on the rest of Europe.

Fuel prices keep consumers focused on inflation.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth and interest rates in a context of high inflation.

With no end to Russia’s attack on Ukraine in sight, energy and agriculture are feeling the strain.

Price shocks are a boon for some emerging markets, while a curse for others.

Losing Russia and Ukraine's commodity exports is a risk to supply chains and inflation.

What are the consequences of taking Russia's international payments offline?

Russia's actions will have immediate and long-term ramifications.

This week's biggest news adds to the complications in energy markets.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.

Consumer spending and borrowing have rebounded, and delinquencies have not.

Inflation in the housing market will continue to build.

Inflation in the housing market will continue to build.

As tensions between Russia and Ukraine mount, so too does market volatility.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for inflation and how the Federal Reserve will react.

The size and timing of QT will depend on financial conditions and the evolution of inflation.

The macroeconomic picture still doesn't support the case for monetary tightening in the eurozone.

Ongoing labor market shifts are a risk to economic growth.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.

Spurred by rate hike concerns, geopolitical tensions and more, markets saw a 10% correction intra-day today – find out how that impacts our outlook.

“Supply chain” used to be a piece of business jargon that rarely made its way into normal conversations.

The flow of excess cash has returned to normal, but the stock is still quite elevated.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for the Federal Reserve and the U.S. economy.

Excess cash has accumulated in every corner of the economy.

A legislative impasse raises bigger questions about public finances.

Employment metrics support the Fed's change of course.

The Fed has made a sharp pivot by accelerating the tapering of its asset purchases.

The BoE has started tightening. Will the ECB follow?

The economics teams reflects on six themes that defined an extraordinary year.

High inflation and strong economic data may make the Fed hurry to conclude asset purchases.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for the U.S. economy.

The latest climate pledges are encouraging, but fulfilling them will be a challenge.

The new variant will test our ability to live with COVID-19

The deteriorating health situation in Europe threatens to send the recovery into reverse.

Once started, wage-price spirals are hard to stop.

What is in the new infrastructure bill, and what's next for Congress?

Boosting confidence in public health is essential to a durable economic recovery.

In this special report, the Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment and interest rates in the year ahead.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for the U.S. economy.

Strikes and quits show workers are feeling emboldened.

The phrase “behind the curve” originates from aviation. The “power curve” maps an airplane’s speed to the thrust applied by the engine. This relationship varies with conditions; being behind the power curve can risk stalling or damaging the plane.

With Turkey’s central bankers being shown the door, foreign investors are likely to follow.

There is no one-size-fits-all approach to dealing with COVID-19.

The higher the costs of conventional energy, the greater the case for investment in clean energy sources.

Global themes we are tracking: public health, de-globalization, policy retreat, technology and the East and West divide.

The outlook for the fourth quarter and beyond is positive, but the recovery remains uneven. The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.

Personal trading could undermine public trust in the Federal Reserve.

Unilateralism is not a remedy for multilateral institutions.

Personal trading could undermine public trust in the Federal Reserve.

The Delta variant’s impact on supply chains and domestic spending slowed economic activity in the third quarter. Consumer confidence dipped noticeably, and businesses’ outlook dimmed somewhat. Rising inflation, the product of goods and labor shortages, has been a concern.

Today's supply and inflation challenges stem from Brexit.

Are inflation forecasts reliable enough to shape policy?

Several events will have major influences on the global economy in the months ahead.

Canada's election yielded no changes, leaving housing as the key risk to watch.

The stage looks set for a taper without any tantrums.

The spillover from the property sector to the broader economy could be significant.

The Delta variant and supply constraints are the biggest worries for the global outlook.

The Fed governors will soon decide when and how to taper asset purchases.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for the U.S. economy.

Europe still needs fiscal support to preserve stability and growth.

The U.S. Congress faces major financial deadlines in the month ahead.

Evergrande is an example of the risk of debt defaults to China's financial stability.

Household savings and central bank policies have reduced the need for credit.

Trucks are a vital link in supply chains, but there aren't enough people to drive them.

Floods, fires and droughts are growing risks.

A puzzling jump in retired Americans should reverse soon.

Measures aimed at containing COVID-19 will suppress growth and stress inflation.

New virus outbreaks in supplier nations are adding to inventory problems.

The recovery has had its ups and downs, but the economy is moving in the right direction.

Governments are finding their place in supporting development.

The automotive market is running lean.

The debate over post-pandemic scheduling often centers on productivity.

A firm economic recovery is well underway, but the fast-spreading Delta variant is clouding the outlook.

Delta has the potential to alter the path of recovery; central banks are rising to face heavy challenges; and U.S. states have survived a major stress event.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for the U.S. economy.

Workers have the upper hand, but not for long; Latin America stagflates; and Sweden provides a case study in COVID-19 response.

Reflecting on a busy six months of vaccines, inflation, trade relations, supply chains, and policy challenges.

Brexit is as complicated as we expected, but restaurants are reviving and aircraft tariffs are suspended.

Many economies are now in advanced stages of economic reopening, but some are still struggling.

The Fed is talking about tapering its asset purchases.

COVID made demographic challenges even more complicated, but that hasn't slowed demand for houses in the U.S.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for the U.S. economy.

Crisis investments may yield a lasting boost to productivity, while Australia's restrictions pose a lingering risk.

From base effects to bottlenecks, wages to pricing power, inflation questions abound.

China was the first nation to enter recovery, and high U.S. import demand has helped it.

Advanced economies are doing better than emerging markets.

Biden pushes more spending just as the U.S. debt ceiling returns from hiatus, while Scotland's standing in the U.K. is uncertain.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for the U.S. economy.

Labor markets are changing course. When will the Fed do the same? India's second wave will disrupt activity elsewhere.

"Buy American:" easier said than done. Sports leagues are still struggling, and tax evasion is costly.

Human capital needs renewal; COVID-19 sweeps through India again, while the U.S. economy springs back to life.

National corporate tax policies need global coordination; U.S. unemployment rates don't tell the full story.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for global growth in this year of reopening.

Infrastructure merits more investment, everywhere; we look at the specifics of the U.S. proposal.

A year ago, the U.S. registered its deepest economic contraction since the Second World War.

Central banks will go digital, and homeowners avoided foreclosure.

Addressing technical, idiosyncratic and structural aspects of inflation.

Failure to boost vaccination programs could hurt the eurozone economy.

Reflecting on the anniversary of the pandemic, revamped child benefits and how democracy fosters economic growth.

Will the Fed respond to inflation concerns?

Over the past month, the expectations of growth in the year ahead have surged, with fixed income markets repricing and investors shifting allocations in anticipation of growth.

How does risk management work when risks change rapidly?

How long will the effects of COVID be felt in potential growth, the tourism sector and bankruptcy filings?

Weighing the costs of global vaccine access, minimum wage and the energy rally.

A strong economic rebound is expected towards the middle of the year, followed by a return to more normal growth in 2022.

Are proposed fiscal policies and student debt forgiveness too much of a good thing?

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for the U.S. economy.

Any surge in inflation will likely not last for long, but Italy's economic troubles and the shift in rental markets may endure.

Emerging markets seek a sustainable solution to debts, and the Fed takes a step toward sustainability.

Faster vaccination and bigger stimulus can pave the way to a better year, and agriculture subsidies upset trade relationships.

The Senate outcome opens the door to future cooperation, while Brexit sets the stage for future frictions.

Policymakers around the world share the challenges of containing the renewed outbreak and supporting those affected by it.

A variety of data sources show we are closer to normal, but not fully recovered.

From global responses to local lockdowns, we all witnessed dramatic changes in 2020.

Promising developments surrounding vaccination give us hope that 2021 will be a better than year than the one that is about to end.

Brexit negotiations had another unproductive week. Parcel shipping volumes are breaking records. And when and why might the Fed alter its asset purchases?

While some indicators are slowing, we are optimistic for a better year ahead.

Yellen is a good candidate for a tough job, and we review the outlooks for U.S. holiday spending and trade in Asia.

Recovery from COVID-19 has been a mix of successes and setbacks.

Fair trade over free trade will remain the theme in Washington.

The Northern Trust Economics team reviews the outlook for developed markets facing COVID-19.

The Northern Trust Economics team forecasts the U.S. economy’s continued recovery.

The 2020 election dims the outlook for major legislation and aid to local governments, while central banks face the risk of a liquidity trap.

Our election 2020 coverage concludes with a look at the nation’s physical and human capital.

Fostering immigration, encouraging family expansion, and stopping COVID-19 are tough problems with no easy solutions.

The environment is one of many sets of regulations under consideration.

With COVID-19 cases rising and policy support fading, the recovery faces many risks.

U.S. Healthcare Reform Proposals, Childcare Needed to Support Workers, Past U.S. Debt Recovery Won’t Repeat.

Our election 2020 coverage begins with fiscal policy, security risks that are slowing foreign investment, and legislative standstills.

Our election 2020 coverage begins with fiscal policy, security risks that are slowing foreign investment, and legislative standstills.

Brexit takes an uncertain turn, while the Fed seeks loan borrowers and parents welcome adult children back home.

In recent years, global equities had slightly outpaced market forecasts for lower equity returns. Then the COVID-19 pandemic hit the global economy, putting an end to the 10-year bull market. Equity markets have now started to recover, but the pandemic introduced and exacerbated challenges that we expect to subdue financial market returns over the next five years.

Breakout inflation is not our top concern. Europe explores support for national champions, and the U.S. unemployment rate masks some fragility.

The Northern Trust Economics team forecasts the U.S. economy’s recovery from COVID-19.

The Fed’s strategic review added to a bevy of policy research revealed last week.

The Kansas City Fed’s annual Monetary Policy Symposium at Jackson Hole is a signature event for those of us who follow central banks. The conference typically doesn’t generate much front-page news: the subject matter is usually more technical and conceptual than a broad audience would appreciate. But 2020 is not a typical year.

The Fed’s new take on inflation was a long time coming, while Japan’s downturn drags on and U.S. housing stays strong.

The lodging industry illustrates a panoply of pandemic problems; and keeping people in their homes will be key to economic recovery.

Washington’s inaction on a fiscal deal and action on tariffs are both perplexing, while schools face complicated choices.

The Northern Trust Economics team forecasts the U.S. economy’s recovery from a record-breaking decline.

COVID-19 causes growth in government debt, liability risks, and stress for women.

How will our lives change during and after the pandemic? Let’s start with a look at education, medicine, automation, broadband access, city living and cash.

Gold has been on a tear over the last year, rising 32% while global equities have languished. A common objective of gold is to hedge against some type of risk. This paper shows how gold can reduce downside risk during big down markets, but isn’t the most effective inflation hedge.

The U.S. and EU deliberate how to disburse aid, China’s recovery carries risks, and U.S. mortgage rates find a floor.

Automatic stabilizers prevented an economic breakdown, while trains are running empty and money stays parked.

The first wave of the economic recovery has generally exceeded expectations, but the recent surges in COVID-19 cases could deliver a setback.

COVID-19’s path is evident everywhere we look: spending, saving, staffing, sentiment, and sports.

The journey to a full recovery will be a long one, but at least we’ve taken some initial steps.

The challenges keep mounting for global trade, unemployed workers, and banks.

More infections lead to more worry, while the commercial real estate and tourism sectors are put to the test.

Banks undergo a true stress test, smartphones measure movement, and poverty may rise.

Why did unemployment fall? Why is Brexit proceeding? And why did so much food go to waste?

Economic data shows mild improvement, but the road to recovery will be a long one.

Economic factors are motivating recent protests and changes to supply chains.

Faster actions are better in fiscal policy, but that’s not the case for China’s foreign policy.

The pandemic is putting universities and their graduates to the test.

Major economies are easing restrictions to reboot economic activity. Unfortunately, they are faced with a difficult tradeoff between lives and livelihoods.

The absence of a “V-shaped” recovery means trouble for policy makers, mortgage finance, and emerging markets.

The Northern Trust Economics team gives a perspective on a tough outlook for U.S. growth and employment this year.

Will inflation soar? Will monetary policies work as intended, and what precedent are they setting?

China’s recovery and Mexico’s policy choices can be questioned, but the automotive sector’s slump is not in doubt.

SMEs and oil are feeling the demand decline, leading to calls for reopening businesses.

Using low volatility strategies to lower risk and capture alpha.

Policy measures to aid financial markets and labor forces through the crisis are wide-ranging.

Economic activity is expected to recover in the second half of the year, but the shocks in some parts of the world could last for longer.

Economic activity descended in an elevator and will climb back up on the stairs.

Economic data will reveal an incredible downturn.

Many consumers entered the crisis with no cushion.

Decisive measures taken today should help to keep the crisis from causing prolonged damage.

Relief efforts measured in trillions of dollars are bound to have some positive effect.

Growing policy responses reflect greater estimates of the costs of COVID-19.

Growing policy responses reflect greater estimates of the costs of COVID-19.

Substantial fiscal policy is the best economic prescription for COVID-19.

Economic news will get worse before it gets better, but we expect the U.S. economy to pull through.

Can policymakers minimize economic disruptions from COVID-19?

We’ve been closely watching developments related to COVID-19 for the past several weeks. While we have hesitated to make significant changes to our outlook until evidence is clearer, we now expect the economic damage done by the outbreak will be more significant than initially thought.

The coronavirus outbreak is sending ripples through global supply chains and disrupting businesses.

The U.S. economy has been resilient in the face of uncertainty, but risks are growing.

A deep dive into the factors that brought inflation down and are keeping it low.

The U.S. Census is a vital research tool; the coronavirus is a vital risk.

Phase One: A limited deal is better than none.
Inequality: We can’t manage what we can’t measure.
Canada: Taking the lead with fiscal policy.

A strong economy will help U.S. consumers meet their financial resolutions in the new year, while residents of France and Australia have bigger worries.

Tensions between Iran and the United States brings a stressful start to 2020.

Continued modest global growth in 2020 may be the best we can hope for.

Rates were unpredictable, central banks were active, trade was volatile but consumers were undaunted. We reflect on the major economic trends of 2019.

Brexit and trade talks provided lots of uncertainty this year. Last week saw progress on both fronts.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.

Rate cuts and overnight operations were important developments this year. Where will the Fed go from here?

From freight volume to flight delays and real estate to recession risk, we share quick thoughts on a variety of economic subjects.

Overloaded with infinite choices when investing in small caps? Join us to cut through the noise and learn how to determine which fund is the best fit for your client’s portfolio.

In this session, veteran portfolio manager, Robert Bergson, CFA will draw on his own investment strategies to walk you through the importance of small cap value in today’s uncertain market and his approach to the small cap universe.

You will learn:

• Why small caps make sense in uncertain market environments
• Ways to improve the efficiency of your small cap allocations
• How to separate good/compensated risks and bad/uncompensated risks within small cap stocks

In the bond market, staying positive is easier said than done.

China’s economy is slowing by any measure, while Australia’s central bank takes rates to record lows.

Growth Prospects and Challenges Ahead for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, China, and Japan.

Wealth taxes are politically resonant but difficult to enact. Oil prices are steady despite disruptions, while the EU’s food exports face tariffs.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.

This week’s Fed meeting started a pause in overnight rate cuts. But what will happen if yields on the long end move up?

Are the latest Brexit and GSE proposals the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?

Deep U.S.-China divisions make a ‘phased’ deal our best hope for trade progress.

Exploring the survey that is the current cause for concern.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.

Testing times for relations in this challenging epoch.

October will be a telling month for Brexit, the eurozone economy and the U.S.-China trade war.

• Automation will squeeze the middle of the labor market.
• Overnight lending markets are finding their equilibrium.
• Japan planned its tax increase to minimize disruption.