Commentary

Bullish Exuberance Returns As Trump Takes Office

Bullish exuberance is returning to the markets and the economy in a big way following the Presidential election.

Commentary

DeepSeek DeepSinks Bullish Exuberance

On Monday, markets were rocked by news that a Chinese Artificial Intelligence model, DeepSeek, performed better than expected at a lower development cost.

Commentary

Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation?

In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.

Commentary

Are Return Expectations For 2025 Too High?

Retail investors are the most optimistic about higher stock prices in 2025 by the most on record. Unsurprisingly, that sentiment resulted in the psychological rush to overpay for assets, pushing forward 1-year valuations sharply higher.

Commentary

Gardening Guide To Better Portfolio Returns In 2025

As we head into 2025, investors are giddy over the market returns of the last two years. As shown, the annual returns, while elevated, have come with only average volatility along the way.

Commentary

Tactically Bearish As Risks Increase

In last week’s discussion with Thoughtful Money, I noted that we are becoming more “tactically bearish” as we progress into 2025. While we have remained primarily bullish in equity positioning over the last two years, several risks are now worth considering.

Commentary

Investor Resolutions For 2025

I publish an updated version of my New Year “investor” resolutions yearly. The purpose of the process is to take an annual inventory of what I did and did not do over the last year to improve my portfolio management practices.

Commentary

“Curb Your Enthusiasm” In 2025

As we enter 2025, the financial markets are optimistic. That optimism is fueled by strong market performance over the last two years and analyst’s projections for continued growth. However, as “Curb Your Enthusiasm” often demonstrates, even the best-laid plans can unravel when overlooked details come to light. Here are five reasons why a more cautious approach to investing might be warranted in 2025.

Commentary

The Rules Of Bob Farrell – An Updated Illustrated Guide

In a recent discussion on TheRealInvestmentShow, Bob Farrell and his 10 investment rules were discussed, which elicited several email questions asking, “Who is Bob Farrell, and where are these rules?”.

Commentary

Permabull? Hardly.

I never thought someone would label me a “Permabull.” This is particularly true of the numerous articles I wrote over the years about the risks of excess valuations, monetary interventions, and artificially suppressed interest rates.

Commentary

Prediction For 2025 Using Valuation Levels

It’s that time of year when Wall Street polishes up its crystal balls and predicts next year’s market returns. Since Wall Street never predicts a down year, these forecasts are often wrong and sometimes very wrong.

Commentary

Economic Indicators And The Trajectory Of Earnings

Understanding the trajectory of corporate earnings is crucial for investors, as these earnings significantly influence stock valuations and market performance.

Commentary

Portfolio Rebalancing And Valuations. Two Risks We Are Watching.

While analysts are currently very optimistic about the market, the combined risk of high valuations and the need to rebalance portfolios in the short term may pose an unanticipated threat.

Commentary

The Kalecki Profit Equation And The Coming Reversion

Corporations are currently producing the highest level of profitability, as a percentage of GDP, in history.

Commentary

Leverage And Speculation Are At Extremes

Financial markets often move in cycles where enthusiasm drives prices higher, sometimes far beyond what fundamentals justify.