Last week's jobs report hit a "sweet spot" for the markets, confirming enough economic cooling to signal potential Fed rate cuts without yet sparking fears of a recession. I expect a 25-basis-point cut from the Fed this week and Powell may set us up for a data-dependent pause in December.
Brandywine Global: With the US election imminent, looking past heightened emotions and uncertainty to the potential economic and market impacts can be difficult. But election rhetoric eventually meets reality.
Donald Trump is offering a vision of crony rentier capitalism that has enticed many captains of industry and finance. In catering to their wishes for more tax cuts and less regulation, he would make most Americans’ lives poorer, harder, and shorter.
Key market indicators for November 2024 present a complex but opportunity-filled environment for traders and investors. Following the first phase of Federal Reserve rate cuts and growing global uncertainties, the technical landscape suggests several notable shifts. Let’s explore the key market indicators to watch.
Stocks and yields made slight early gains but attention is mainly on today's U.S. election. ISM Services data and a 10-year note auction lie ahead, and bond volatility is high.
In this article, we’ll remind you what listed real assets are, explain how they fit into an asset allocation, and help you understand why we believe now is an attractive time to invest in the asset class.
It’s almost over! Unfortunately, those texts might not stop right away. Unless this election is an unexpected blowout, some key states won’t have full counts of all their ballots for several days.
The earnest start of Q3 earnings season for the technology and communication services sectors has begun.
Even for dedicated investors, Social Security retirement benefits can be an important part of their financial security.
As we think about investing around a historic election, establishing what we know, what we need to know, and what we can count on is a useful foundation for navigating the uncertainty.
Anyone else ready for the election to be over? This uncertainty is exhausting, no matter how you want it to end. But sadly, it won’t really end. We will just transition to a different uncertainty over what will happen next. I will offer my thoughts on the election at the end of this letter, after setting the stage.
In his 2022 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter, Warren Buffett wrote that in his 80 years of investing, he had “yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America.”
Here we are, another calendar quarter down with one more to go in 2024, and investors have yet to see a “hard landing” emerge.
The Treasury yield curve is an important economic indicator that, depending on its shape, can signal changes in market expectations and provide economic insight.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates in major markets.
Thematic portfolios that tap into big global trends offer exciting opportunities for equity investors. But the devil is in the detail.
Get ready to ‘roll back’ the clocks! That’s right, Daylight Savings Time (DST) ends this weekend. This twice-a-year ritual is followed by every US state (except Arizona and Hawaii) and nearly 70 countries across the globe, but not everyone supports it.
The Fed lowered rates last month, so why are interest rates higher? More context helps clarify the disconnect between the Fed and the market.
This month, Goldman Sachs made headlines with a fresh forecast projecting the S&P 500 will see 3% in annualized returns in the next decade.
Looking ahead to the post-November 5th world, three Analyst Days caught our team’s attention. NXP Semiconductor (NXPI), CSX (CSX), and ASML Holding (ASML) each hold events that may shed light on key cyclical areas of the global economy.
VettaFi discusses crypto ETF launches.
One of the most often asked questions Professor Nathan Mauck and myself, Chuck Carnevale, are getting from investors is what is going to happen after the election? Elections are big deals and they bring a lot of investor anxiety – election effect!
With Direct Indexing, you can help your clients prepare for life-changing transactions and minimize capital gains taxes by selectively harvesting losses to offset those gains, and implementing tax-efficient trading strategies.
Drugmakers don’t have to dominate a healthcare portfolio. Equity investors should cast a wide net across the sector to find innovation and growth.
Our analysis explores how potential post-election tax policy changes might impact dividends, capital gains, and municipal bonds and how investors might prepare for different election outcomes.
Year-end can be an opportune time to review finances, rebalance portfolios, and possibly reduce taxes. Our Bill Cass shares some highlights from a year-end planning checklist.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why he believes U.S. exceptionalism is a trend that is likely to continue.
The high cost of housing is prompting many individuals to consider downsizing, but advisors recommend gradually reining in spending habits.
Data centers represent 1-2% of global power consumption. Goldman expects that range to grow to 3-4%, requiring record levels of energy production.
The most common questions we’ve been asked as the election approaches are generally about the Federal debt and deficits. Many investors worry about a looming “day of reckoning” for US debt. They fear the US’s fiscal imprudence will eventually force a sudden and dramatic repricing of US debt. In this insight, we explore the modern history of US debt to GDP across several Presidential administrations and outline why investors should not be worried about a financial apocalyptic abyss.
I was emailed several times about a recent Morningstar article about J.P. Morgan’s warning of lower forward returns over the next decade. That was followed up by numerous emails about Goldman Sachs’ recent warnings of 3% annualized returns over the next decade.
Although investing in in-state municipal bonds may have tax advantages, there can be good reasons to buy out-of-state munis.
Equities continued to climb in Q3, with fixed income remaining steady despite international conflicts, inflationary pressure, and election-related uncertainty in the United States.
Derivatives are complex financial instruments with associated risks, costs, and potential payoffs.
Integrating the physical toll of climate change helps investors spot key risks—and opportunities.
Wall Street has been steadily raising the alarm on mega-cap concentration risks, and recent notes have cranked up the hazard level a notch.
Deep value stocks are GMO Asset Allocation’s highest conviction investment idea. In a world where many stocks are being driven ever higher by positive sentiment and investor optimism, some fundamentally sound but unloved companies are being left behind, consequently trading at extraordinary discounts.
Earnings season is shaping up to be relatively strong so far, but the market will likely continue to shift focus to an increasingly murky sales picture.
State and municipal budgets are adjusting to life after pandemic interventions.
Yields have risen from the dead since their recent lows in mid-September presenting investors with an opportunity that many were scared had disappeared following the FOMC’s 50 basis point rate cut at their last meeting.
To paraphrase Milton Friedman: There are four ways in which you can spend money. You can spend your own money on yourself. You can spend your own money on somebody else. You can spend somebody else’s money on yourself. Finally, you can spend somebody else’s money on somebody else.
The latest AI-driven euphoria, led by big tech names that include NVIDIA, has dominated investment sentiment in the post-COVID era. Of course, many investors know that this has driven the U.S. equity market to an all-time high, stretching valuations to an extreme level (U.S. CAPE is at the 98th percentile of historical observations!).
Investment grade bonds have long been synonymous with a “core” fixed income allocation, but we believe a flexible strategy also belongs in most bond portfolios, as managers can adjust their exposure based on market conditions.
Throughout history one of the most significant features of the global business cycle is the synchronization of individual country economies.
Crossing a new ETF AUM threshold, Amplify ETFs has also launched new funds this year and may be set to intrigue entering 2025.
Despite recent headwinds from a strong U.S. dollar, EM local currency bonds present a compelling investment opportunity.
This week’s economic indicators continue to reflect a resilient U.S. economy despite the ongoing pressure from higher interest rates. Jobless claims dropped to 227,000, indicating a steady labor market. Durable goods orders came in strong, aligning with estimates, and GDP growth for Q3 is expected to come in between 3% and 3.25%, a robust figure by most standards.
Director of Investment Strategies Shailesh Kshatriya unpacks the potential factors driving the sharp increase in U.S. Treasury yields. He also provided an update on Q3 earnings season and the Bank of Canada’s latest decision on rates.
The long and winding road to one of the most unusual presidential elections in history is coming to an end – with Election Day now just 11 days away.
For nearly 2 years I have been recommending MLP pipelines (Master Limited Partnership) as an attractive energy play with high yields and upside price potential.
