Commentary

The Case for Optimism: Sustaining the Economic & Market Momentum

As we enter 2026, the U.S. economic momentum continues based on the foundation of a solid private sector with fiscal and monetary policies also contributing to growth. As we refine our global asset allocation, we maintain a diversified overweight stance on U.S. equities despite relatively high valuations.

Commentary

Aligned With the Fed: A Supportive Backdrop for Growth

The U.S. economy appears poised for a measured and confident expansion into 2026 driven by a stabilizing monetary policy, corporate strength, and resilient household income growth. Our outlook suggests a supportive environment for risk assets, particularly domestic equities, while favoring specialized strategies in fixed income.

Commentary

ETFs for the Distribution Phase: Why Individual Bonds & Bond Funds Often Fall Short

As investors enter the distribution phase of their financial lives, the priorities of portfolio construction shift dramatically. Liquidity becomes essential, diversification grows more important, and the ability to meet income needs – sometimes by tapping into principal – must be balanced against risk and market volatility.

Commentary

Navigating Uncertainty: The U.S. Economy & Financial Markets Offer Opportunities

Though we are getting limited amounts of economic data during the federal government shutdown, the official and private sector data we are receiving generally paints a positive picture for U.S. economic activity.

Commentary

Global Fracturing: The U.S. vs. BRICS in an Emerging Economic Rivalry

After decades of increasing global integration, signs of geopolitical and economic fracturing are becoming more visible.

Commentary

Slowing Jobs Growth, Shifting Trade Winds, & a New Phase for Monetary Policy

The U.S. economy in late 2025 presents a complex but increasingly coherent picture. Labor market dynamics, trade policy uncertainty, and evolving monetary conditions are each contributing to a recalibration of the economic landscape.

Commentary

To Hedge or Not to Hedge: Navigating Currency Risk in International Portfolios

The U.S. dollar has experienced a notable decline in value this year relative to a broad basket of foreign currencies. This depreciation has meaningfully affected the investment returns of U.S. based investors holdings in international stocks and bonds.

Commentary

Boom or Bust? Reconciling Strong GDP Growth With Sluggish Job Gains

The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly strong annualized rate of 3.0% in the second quarter of 2025, which far outpaced the post-2000 average of 2.3% and easily beat expectations.

Commentary

Despite Economic Uncertainties and Wild Market Swings, U.S. Economic Fundamentals Refuse to Buckle

The U.S. economy remains resilient despite headline volatility tied to shifting trade and tariff policies. Meanwhile, we continue to see a lot of volatility in the economic data as the world adjusts to these changing policies.

Commentary

Economic Crosscurrents in 2025: Inflation, Interest Rates, and Investment Strategy

As 2025 progresses, investors and policymakers are navigating a highly complex economic landscape shaped by three powerful and interrelated forces: evolving trade policy, a cautious U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), and growing concerns over U.S. fiscal discipline.

Commentary

Credit Markets React to Tariffs

Similar to the equity market’s response to the recently announced tariffs, the bond market responded with a widening of credit spreads. These spreads represent the difference in yield between a U.S. Treasury bond and other bonds of the same maturity but different credit quality.

Commentary

Navigating the World of Tariffs: More Uncertainty, Slower Growth, & Investment Opportunities

Recent revisions to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reflect a sobering message: the world economy is entering a more volatile and fragmented era.

Commentary

The May 25 Dashboard: Our Three Layers of Risk Management

Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. Importantly, each of these systems work together.

Commentary

Risk Management Amid Economic Uncertainty

The current market unrest over the potential for tariff increases and their impact is unpredictable. The volatility can be unnerving.

Commentary

New Headlines Overlook U.S. Economic Strength

The equity market tends to see a correction every 18 months. If it's not a recession-induced bear market, it may be a buying opportunity.