Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 25.3 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 39.5.
The inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 207% above its long-term trend at the end of June.
“Productization” has quickly become one of the most widely used terms in wealth management. It appears in strategy decks, conference discussions, and vendor messaging. Yet, despite its popularity, the concept remains poorly understood in practice.
The U.S. trade deficit expanded over 40% in May to $77.59B, its widest gap since March 2025. The latest reading missed the forecast of -$78.30B.
For years, the Magnificent Seven tech giants commanded investors’ attention, dominating the S&P 500 Index and determining which way the overall stock market was headed. Those days are over.
The higher the rally in technology high-flyers, the louder the anxiety around a new wave of turbulence in the group.
When Mark Zuckerberg gets a bold new business idea, he likes to throw money at it. Last summer, he dropped $14.3 billion for a 49% stake in Scale AI, allowing him to poach its wunderkind founder Alexandr Wang to lead a new project to build artificial-intelligence systems that surpass human intelligence.
ETF Database saw a massive surge in readers this past June. The most popular pieces focused on everything from breaking SpaceX IPO news to the technical mechanics behind top-performing ETFs.
Global equities rebounded in the second quarter as confidence in the AI investment cycle strengthened. As the third quarter begins, we believe markets have become priced for a smooth and profitable AI build-out, leaving little margin for error. June’s sharp sell-off in the Magnificent Seven stocks underscored how quickly sentiment can shift when crowded AI trades are priced for near-flawless execution.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Higher rates, weaker underwriting, and software concentration are exposing vulnerabilities in direct lending and leveraged loans, while high yield bonds appear better positioned.
Right now, advisors are facing a massive generation of clients trying to navigate retirement. That’s challenging enough, but with inflation and the cost of living rising, assuaging those clients’ concerns and delivering for them has become much trickier. Income ETFs can help meet those clients’ goals, with new, daily covered call ETFs an appealing option.
Close to 40 years ago, I moved from Canada to the U.S. after acquiring a controlling interest in U.S. Global Investors. I’ve built my entire life and career here, and in all that time, I’ve never stopped marveling at my adopted country.
Bypass the headaches of individual closed-end funds. Discover how Invesco's PCEF bundles over 100 CEFs to capture June's debt rallies.
Seven of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through July 6, 2026.
The U.S. Treasury launched the Trump Accounts for childhood wealth building. Discover the five low-cost index ETFs anchoring the program.
Every sector chart tells you where the crowd is. Almost none tell you the thing a stock picker actually needs to know: Inside a given sector, how much room is there to beat the average name?
Wage growth peaked four years ago. Since 1985, it has led CPI by three to seventeen months in every single cycle. The May 4.2% inflation print is the noise. Watch the wages.
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global rose 0.5 points to 51.2, indicating a modest rise in service sector activity. The latest reading was just below the forecast of 51.3 and marked the strongest expansion in four months.
While the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at the latest meeting, investors increasingly speculate that rate hikes are on the table in 2026.
The US industrial robot industry is characterized by low growth and highly customized projects. Artificial intelligence holds out the hope to change that, especially when it comes to robots that can move and work safely around humans.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees the yen weakening to 165 per dollar in a year’s time, driven in part by Japan’s interest rate differentials with the US.
Oil held onto its recent run of losses, with traders looking for clues on flows through the Strait of Hormuz as barrels continue to return to the market after months of disruption.
US stock futures climbed early Monday as investors gauged whether the artificial-intelligence trade can regain its footing after one of its sharpest pullbacks in more than two years.
The most interesting shift in market price action in June was the strong outperformance of value stocks compared to the broad market and tech
Six months is enough time for a lot to change. Your income, your expenses, your goals, and even the broader economy may look different than they did at the start of the year. And a plan that made sense in January might not fit the reality you're living in now.
The U.S. nuclear sector advanced on two fronts in recent days. Advanced microreactors completed a key federal target while the existing commercial fleet signed a landmark agreement with a major retailer. These moves show momentum at both the innovation edge and the operating base.
The war in Iran has delivered an oil shock into a bond market that had not fully shaken inflation pressures. Higher energy prices have revived concerns about the path of inflation just as central banks were edging toward rate cuts, forcing a reassessment of what investors require to hold long-term bonds. That reassessment is now playing out in higher long-term yields and steeper yield curves globally.
This July, the United States marks its 250th anniversary, and that has many Americans thinking about what independence really means. In many ways, genuine independence is about more than political rights. It’s financial.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its June 17 meeting, but investors were more focused on the future under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whom Trump appointed in May.
Federal estate taxes may not affect most households, but state death taxes can still be significant. Learn key planning considerations and strategies to help preserve wealth.
The strong run by the Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500 the last few years has loaded portfolios with heavy concentration risk. As a tiny group of mega cap tech giants shapes the market, finding meaningful diversification has become a priority for advisors. Data from last week’s VettaFi Mid-Year Market Outlook Symposium confirms that wealth managers are actively looking down the market-cap spectrum to rebalance risk.
The dollar holds a central place in global markets due to its role as the world’s reserve currency. Its movements influence cross-asset correlations, shape liquidity conditions, and often offer early indications of shifts in the broader macro regime. In short, it is a critical variable that warrants close attention.
At VettaFi, we’ve been talking a lot about bottlenecks as a concept. Some of the brightest equity market opportunities for capital growth are tied to bottlenecks in a supply chain-context.
Slate Auto, the electric vehicle start-up backed by Jeff Bezos, is a grand experiment in whether austerity sells — and a warning for the US auto sector.
U.S.-listed ETFs locked in a record-breaking first half of the year. Read the analysis on active ETFs, fixed income shifts, and equity flows.
The latest employment report showed that 57,000 jobs were added in June, down from May's 129,000 gain. This figure was significantly lower than the projected addition of 114,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to 4.2%.
Travel on all roads and streets decreased in May. The 12-month moving average was down 0.06% month-over-month but was up 0.93% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.10% month-over-month and up 0.32% year-over-year.
Vehicle sales rose to their highest level in nine months in June, coming in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.523 million units. This represents a 2.8% increase from the previous month and a 4.4% rise from one year ago.
The second quarter wraps up today, and it was a good one. With the S&P 500 having returned more than 14% (including dividends) with just one trading day left, it will almost certainly end up being the best quarter for the index since the second quarter of 2020. Technology was the leader despite the June weakness.
The Mag 7 has been the single largest driver of the stock market’s performance three straight years, accounting for over 20% of the S&P 500’s performance. However, there is a performance divergence happening in 2026 as the S&P 500 continues to go up, while the Mag7 go down.
The artificial intelligence boom has a power problem, and Wall Street is betting billions on companies that promise to solve it — even if some of the technology hasn’t been fully developed yet.
At first glance, allocating to emerging markets appears to add diversification to a portfolio. Look more closely, and the reality is more nuanced. In the late 1990s, the MSCI EM index was dominated by materials and telecoms, driven by the growth of mobile telephony and the internet bubble.
Global stocks surged during the second quarter as oversold conditions in March and de-escalation in the Middle East created ripe conditions for a rally. In the United States, the large-cap S&P 500 index climbed by 13%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 index increased by nearly 25% (yCharts).
There’s no doubt the most important aspect to the June FOMC meeting was the fact that policymakers kept the Fed funds rate unchanged and removed its prior easing bias. But, this was not just your normal, run-of-the-mill policy gathering. It was Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair and instead of being a ‘rubber stamp’ for rate cuts, as some market observers were opining, the new FOMC leader put his stamp on the Fed in a different way.
The business of overseeing individually tailored municipal-bond portfolios has continued to grow rapidly, turning those money managers into the biggest holders of state and local government debt, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
With the artificial intelligence race moving so rapidly, even a momentary lag can be costly. Alphabet Inc.’s Google is learning this the hard way: The search giant rapidly caught up with
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said price risks have come down in recent weeks, while repeating his determination to bring inflation back to the US central bank’s 2% target.
Markets may have ended the first quarter with a thud, but stocks put another record run in the books to close out the first half of 2026. The U.S. ETF market had already shattered records, crossing the $15 trillion threshold and cruising past $1 trillion in net inflows right before summer officially began.
