The Fed’s most pressing concerns are to not only reverse its monetary excess and misjudgment of inflation, but also to instill confidence that they will follow important provisions of the Federal Reserve Acts.
One of the headlines I have been asked about recently is the strong dollar. People are concerned about what it means, how it could hurt the U.S. economy, and, of course, how it will affect their investments. Good questions all.
“Desengaño” was noted by one Antonio Garcia Martinez in his most excellent book, Chaos Monkeys: Obscene Fortune and Random Failure in Silicon Valley, as a unique style of Spanish genre painting.
Born in the 1980s, special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) are growing up. A surge in SPAC activity that started in 2019 only grew in 2020, bolstered by the market volatility brought on by the pandemic – but also by an influx of more serious investors in a previously niche space. By the end of 2021, SPACs had raised $160 billion on U.S. exchanges – a new record that nearly doubled the level of the previous year.
For decades, globalization has been on an inexorable rise, a key pillar fueling economic growth, driving inflation and yields down, bolstering corporate profit margins and supporting an upward climb in market valuations. Over the past few years, though, cracks have started to develop in globalization, as populism has seen a resurgence and trade wars have erupted.
This incredible milestone underscores the need to solve a number of ongoing challenges related to population growth, but it also presents what I believe are some very attractive investment opportunities.
After the June 17, 2022 low, stocks have jumped higher, taking out the 50-day moving average yesterday in the S&P 500. Many are debating whether this is a bear market rally or the reversal of the bruising 6-month decline.
There is much debate about the effectiveness of Western sanctions, the Ukraine war’s implications for markets and the global economy, and what the West’s next steps should be. While there are few good options, some are clearly worse than others.
The business press sometimes likes to say that a recession is a decline of real GDP lasting at least two consecutive quarters. Not so.
As institutional investors, we most often represent risk as annual standard deviation or tracking error. But when we implement changes in our portfolios, the real-time risk happens much faster.
Although an economic rebound in China is underway according to government and private sector data, its economy and stock market may remain volatile.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.
Templeton Global Equity Group explores the legacy of Abenomics, the emergence of inflation in Japan, and finding value opportunities there.
One of the most surprising things to come out of the first half of 2022 was the walloping fixed income investors received from bonds. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index posted its worst 12-month return in its entire history, which caused many investors to shed exposures, particularly longer-term sectors.
Investors can choose one of two popular scaling methods for carbon emissions comparisons across companies. Our analysis guides investors in making this important decision.
Bad news dominates the headlines. The question for investors is when to become optimistic on markets. Since nobody rings a bell to signify that the market has hit bottom, this commentary looks back at previous recessions to see what history reveals.
Basic economics says that companies can only set prices at a level where the current supply will meet demand. Moreover, looking at prices in a vacuum is also very misleading because it doesn’t account for changes in the firm’s input or operating costs.
With central banks tightening aggressively to beat down inflation, growth is beginning to slow—and the risk of recession is ticking higher. Historically, creditworthiness has soured when growth slows. But instead of bracing for a wave of downgrades and defaults, we think income-seeking investors should embrace the high-yield corporate bond sector.
U.S. equities are seeing solid gains, as the bulls look to sustain the rise today after failing to do so yesterday.
How inflation expectations are formed determines how firmly the Fed must react. If expectations respond to current inflation, they’re possibly “unanchored”—and this makes the Fed’s job harder. Unfortunately, we can’t yet say that expectations haven’t changed for the worse.
We discuss the recent news of JP Morgan’s spoofing and why the monetary metals are behaving so oddly.
If you follow the financial press, the conventional wisdom has come to the simple conclusion that the way to fight inflation is raising interest rates. Unfortunately, this is just not true.
Shinzo Abe's policies had a substantial impact both in Japan and around the world.
As we’ve hit the halftime mark for the investment year 2022, we are faced with a daunting two-headed monster.
Reducing the money supply will help to curtail inflation.
Despite the Fed’s aggressive tightening policy, we think inflation still has a ways to run, though we remain cautiously optimistic about the economy.
We think the housing sector should hold steady with good structural trends, a potentially bad environment for housing bargains and a scenario for prolonged inflation.
June’s U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation data likely set alarms blaring in the minds of Federal Reserve officials.
If you were considering taking the family on a European vacation, now may be a good time, as the U.S. dollar and euro achieved parity this week for the first time in 20 years.
These people, whose very job is to know the lessons of the past, either forgot them or chose to ignore them. Today we’ll look at how this manifested in the 2008 crisis period—and set up the conditions we face today.
With investors wondering whether we are finally through the worst of the selloff, our latest Strategic Income outlook tries to answer the question, “Are we there yet?”
As investment conditions become more difficult, many investors remain paralyzed, still enthralled by the charms of the Fed's QE program. That relationship no long works for investors so it is time to break up and do something different.
Investors are grappling with the reality of a new monetary backdrop in the US.
June’s U.S. inflation data will likely force central bankers into more restrictive territory – raising the odds of recession.
How many times have you heard that the US dollar will collapse because of Fed and fiscal policy?
This bear market we currently find us in is bringing tremendous opportunity.
One of the vexing questions for China watchers has been the lack of stimulus delivered, despite the maintenance of the government’s 5.5% GDP target for 2022 (although there is skepticism around the ability to reach that 5.5%).
Markets are expecting lower gasoline prices ahead.
Many of the participants in the short-term credit market use it as a place to deploy cash while waiting for higher risk opportunities.
As Robert Shiller has written, market participants are always in search of an explanatory narrative. J
The June jobs report was cheered by economic bulls given its strength in level terms, but rates of change among leading indicators don't favor a soft-landing outcome for the economy.
Global liquidity has tightened dramatically this year, which may be a headwind to global equity markets. However, not all central banks are tightening because not all countries have an inflation problem. Our latest research insight explains why we think Japan and China warrant a closer look.
Equity investors are anxious about the future after sharp market declines in the first half of 2022.
Headquartered in Brookfield, Connecticut, Photronics is a world leader in the critical photomasks used to manufacture semiconductor wafers.
In the first of a two-part series on the communications services sector, Mandana Hormozi of Franklin Mutual Series breaks down the streaming wars and uncovers hidden opportunities she sees within the rubble.
In a continuation of the first quarter, stocks and bonds struggled to find any sort of traction in the second quarter, leading to one of the roughest six-month starts to a calendar year on record.
Does the third quarter mean a new start to the year?
Sri Lanka is in turmoil.
There’s more pain ahead for still-frothy tech stocks…
Though risks are rising, strong hiring and purchase activity suggest that the economy can keep growing.
