Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries remains intact.
The current round of budget discussions in Washington will have a significant impact on America’s fiscal trajectory decades into the future. A key underpinning of this year’s debate has roots that go decades into the past.
The U.S. economy is growing accustomed to elevated uncertainty.
The draft of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) runs more than 1,000 pages. Analysis of the legislation has focused primarily on its impact on the U.S. federal deficit: the Congressional Budget Office estimates that passage would add almost $3 trillion to the national debt over the coming decade.
To anyone going through a breakup, just remember this lyric from Bernadette Peters: “If I’m patient the break will mend and one fine morning the hurt will end.”
I spent the last two weeks of May catching up with partners and clients in Malaysia, Singapore, China, and Hong Kong. Following are some reflections on those conversations.
U.S.-Europe negotiations involve more than just tariffs.
The strengths of the U.S. economy are likely to endure.
An "end-to-end" approach in process management means handling a task or product from its initial planning stages to the finishing point or delivery, without relying on intermediaries for specific steps. No nation does this better than China.
Some of the most useful financial advice has a homespun tone, like to make hay while the sun is shining or save up for a rainy day. I recently encountered another helpful idea in that vein: Think of your house like a family member who is always sick.
Few leading men of the 1960s and 1970s were more dashing than Clint Eastwood. He played a series of gritty heroes, trying to do right in a world gone wrong.
A KEY PLANK of the new administration’s economic policy has been to embrace tariffs, a sharp reversal of decades of free market trade.
Markets rallied after a surprise tariff rollback, but with valuations stretched and policy signals still mixed, investors appear to be leaning toward flexibility, fundamentals, and selective exposure.
Trade pacts with America will not mean a return to the old normal.
In the aftermath of the 2018 trade skirmishes with China and the pandemic, nearshoring and friendshoring quickly became buzzwords. But like many other catch phrases, these two may soon fade from usage and memory.
Debt collectors have been unpopular since ancient times, but they play a necessary role in the lending lifecycle. Their jobs are not easy: I recall one collector noting that there are few ways to communicate with defaulted borrowers.
The signal of announcing trade pacts is an important start.
China has been a focal point of American trade policy for many years, but tensions were escalated early in the second Trump term.
The U.S. may not walk back all of the new tariffs.
Tariff talk has been at a fever pitch for the past three months. Its dominance of the news cycle has crowded out discussion of other important economic issues, such as the sustainability of America’s national debt.
At Wednesday’s press conference, Chair Jay Powell signaled a wait-and-see approach, as the Fed keeps a close eye on inflation pressures and the job market.
Most economists and portfolio managers are cautious when discussing gold. Its handling and transaction costs are high, and it pays no interest or dividends.
In recent times, central bank independence has been taken as gospel. Political pressure for easy money contributed to extremes of inflation in the 1970s.
For decades, U.S. Treasuries have been universally regarded as a benchmark and a safe haven asset during periods of turmoil.
Many American consumers recently endured their first inflationary cycle, and recent trade headlines have elevated fears of a another bout with higher costs. While not impacted by tariffs, energy markets may play a critical role in driving the price level during the balance of this year.
After the U.S. imposed substantial tariffs on China, Beijing responded with tariffs of its own and with restrictions on exports of seven rare earth minerals. The latter action will be a particular hindrance to American manufacturers.
American leaders are now engaged in an effort to reverse the loss of manufacturing. The hope is to restore a path to prosperity for struggling regions and their residents. Tariffs are being employed liberally as a means to this end.
Unexpected wider and larger-scope tariff announcements have sent tremors through bond and equity markets, resulting in a brisk sell-off that signals investors’ caution.
Asia-Pacific will likely be the hardest hit region from a steep increase in U.S. tariffs.
President Trump has been a vocal admirer of China’s Great Wall, built by the country’s emperors to protect their territory from outside aggression. In his first term, he compared his plan to build a border wall with that historic structure.
To say that it has been a tumultuous year in Canada would be an understatement. The country’s business model, which relies heavily on commerce with the United States, has been put under severe stress by the American administration.
A divide has recently developed between soft and hard economic data. At a time when conditions are changing rapidly, understanding the difference between the two is terribly important.
The deferral of “reciprocal” tariffs on most U.S. trading partners suggests that the peak of tariff uncertainty may have passed.
Measures announced so far this year have pushed the effective U.S. tariff rate above 20%. The astonishing jump has raised import taxes to a level not seen in about a century.
The reciprocal reprieve does not alter the tectonic shift in the trade outlook.
With uncertainty in abundance, we think investors should avoid drastic moves.
We’re adjusting our stance in response to rising risk while maintaining a disciplined view on long-term strategy.
We reexamine our macroeconomic outlook in light of newly announced tariffs, which have exceeded market expectations and prompted us to update our assumptions and analysis.
The 10% across-the-board (ad valorem) tariff and specific reciprocal tariffs on most U.S. trading partners went well beyond what most were expecting.
We examine the April 2 tariff announcement from President Trump, outlining key proposals and the potential implications for trade and market sentiment.
The last time the dollar needed policy intervention was in 1985. The dollar was ascendant, and that put American exports at a disadvantage.
We call upon an expert for the latest on foreign exchange markets.
The substantial shift in U.S. trade policy will put a significant dent in growth in major markets.
We’ve written quite a bit on tariffs already this year, and appropriately so. Developments on this front have been significant and are of global consequence.
The canal is a vital and valuable trade route.
The time is right to let the Fed's balance sheet level off.
As policy uncertainty grows, we consider how tariffs and other government actions might impact inflation, interest rates, and market sentiment.
Whenever political questions arise, we always encourage a broader view: politicians don’t control the economy, and policy changes rarely move markets. But the past month has raised serious questions over that assertion.
When breakthroughs occur, researchers get the lion’s share of the credit. But they owe a big debt of gratitude to those who collect and organize the data with which insight is manufactured.
Two Sessions, or Lianghui, is the popular name for the annual meeting of China’s top legislative and consultative bodies. These gatherings are closely watched by overseas observers as they provide key insight into China’s political landscape, economic priorities and overall policy direction.
