There’s a lot of uncertainty today for municipal bond investors: how do you hang onto the income you have in the face of rising rates and the potential for tax reform, and where should you look for more? We think muni credit is a good place to point the shovel.
An opportunity may be arising in one of the forgotten corners of the global fixed-income market—Japanese inflation-linked bonds (JGBi), or “linkers.” Active global bond investors can take advantage.
Great companies can come from anywhere, and emerging markets have more than their fair share. We’ve identified three megatrends we expect to give birth to tomorrow’s superstars—and that no globally inclined portfolio should be without.
Many plan sponsors are shifting away from recordkeepers’ target-date funds to nonproprietary versions. But others are still using yesterday’s model. We think it’s time to take a look around.
Government-led initiatives are shaking up the economic landscape in India. Despite the challenges, we discovered that consumers are embracing change and feeling confident about the future in ways that could open new opportunities for investors.
US economic policies have always mattered to international investors. While President Trump’s agenda is still taking shape, equity investors can already map out broad guidelines for identifying winners and losers among companies outside the US.
Not long ago, we suggested that investors who wanted to make their equity portfolios less volatile add a dash of high-yield bonds. There’s a similar low-volatility strategy available to high-yield investors: shorten duration and focus on quality.
As earnings season rumbles on, analysts remain fixated on the bottom line of company reports. But earnings tell only a partial story. There’s a better way to identify businesses that can generate long-term growth.
For decades, there were two things that workers saving for retirement could count on: falling interest rates and low inflation. Change may be afoot. We think target-date funds should take notice.
Investors often ask us which of the two primary bond market risks—interest rate or credit—they should focus on in 2017. Our answer? Both of them—and the interaction between the two.
Investors have had mixed experiences with alternative investments lately, as the market landscape has made it hard for managers’ skills to shine. It’s time to ask some pointed questions to get the right fit.
After lagging the market for years, US financial stocks surged after Donald Trump’s surprising win in the US presidential election. Investors can still profit from investing in banks; in our view, many of the best opportunities now lie in the micro-cap banks the rally left behind.
US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen offered an upbeat assessment of the US economy, signaling that further rate hikes are in store for 2017. But will the Fed also reduce the size of its balance sheet?
There’s value and opportunity in European high-yield bonds today. But if you’re considering using an exchange-traded fund (ETF) to tap into the market, you may want to think again.
These are uncertain times in markets, and that creates a dilemma for investors who need high levels of income but can’t stomach a high level of risk. We have a solution. Actually, we have two.
Stable stocks are out. Riskier reflation plays are in. But who knows which way fickle market winds will blow tomorrow? That’s why strategies that harness stability and good judgement never go out of style.
Confucius wrote, “The green reed which bends in the wind is stronger than the mighty oak which breaks in a storm.” We believe that, similarly, municipal investors who choose flexible mandates will be well equipped for any type of weather.
Fresh concerns about Greece’s debts have prompted new worries across Europe. But another compromise looks likely—European leaders can ill afford a full-blown Greek crisis amid so much regional political uncertainty.
If President Trump’s promise to increase defense spending comes to fruition, it would sharply reverse the trend of the past five years—and have important implications for the outlook on US growth and inflation.
After last year’s oil-price rebound, many investors wonder whether the recovery is over. Probably not. As global demand increasingly relies on US shale, we think oil prices could touch $80 by the end of the decade.
As passive investing has become increasingly popular, the number of indices that track stocks has exploded. More portfolios are being built to track a wider range of exotic indices. But do investors really know what they’re getting?
Rising rates are typically good for stocks, especially when they’re rising because of a strengthening economy. That should mean better days ahead for many post crisis laggards. But a lot will depend on how inflation behaves.
Success for most alternative strategies depends largely on producing returns from alpha—sources beyond broad market movements. It’s been harder to do that in recent years, but that could change in 2017.
Equity investors are increasingly thinking about how their decisions affect society. The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide a good road map for identifying investments that can make an impact—and generate profits as well.
Investors tend to think of floating-rate bank loans as an antidote to rising interest rates. It ain’t necessarily so.
Trump. Brexit. There were plenty of big stories last year. But the one that may matter most for your portfolio in 2017—and how you manage risk—is how markets responded to these surprises.
Plan sponsors are focusing a lot on fees these days. Fees do play a part in sponsors’ fiduciary duties, but just one part. And fiduciary duty is tied to ensuring that fees are reasonable––not simply the lowest.
Investors excited by the boost the US election gave to US stocks should recall that starting conditions matter. This is not 1981, the beginning of the Reagan era.
The US credit cycle is entering its ninth year. That doesn’t mean it will end tomorrow. But it will end—and possibly sooner than markets think. Fortunately, there are ways to de-risk and maintain exposure to high-income assets.
Donald Trump’s policies appear almost certain to contribute to volatility in Asian markets during 2017. For active fixed-income investors who understand the dynamics of bonds and currencies in the region, this creates opportunities.
Details of Donald Trump’s economic agenda remain an enigma. Yet there are already enough clues to help investors target companies that should do well in an era of unpredictable policies from the incoming president.
Fearing rising rates, some municipal investors have sought protection in passive laddered portfolios. The strategy’s seeming simplicity packs a lot of allure—but also hidden risks.
Higher interest rates, a stronger dollar and Donald Trump: three reasons to avoid emerging-market (EM) debt? Not necessarily. Rising rates seem to be signaling faster growth, and that’s good news for many EM bonds and currencies.
With Donald Trump about to be sworn in as US president, markets in Asia are nervous about some of his policies, especially on trade. Investors who are alert to these policies’ likely limitations could find attractive opportunities.
Rising volatility and yields. Toppy valuations. Global policy uncertainty. To handle these bumps in the road, investors need to build a better return path focused on strong up/down capture. Further, we see seven key themes affecting that path ahead.
Among the highlights in our global cyclical outlook: We expect economic growth to remain moderate this year, but slightly better than 2016, and fiscal stimulus should move into the spotlight.
Instead of sitting on the sidelines in 2017, take a look at Europe’s corporate bond markets. They could prove a beacon of stability in an uncertain world.
Could Indonesia be the next China in the world of e-commerce? In conversations with consumers across the country, we discovered an online revolution in the making that has huge growth potential for investors.
The nascent recovery in emerging markets has been thrown into question by Trump’s election. While the concerns warrant attention, we still see compelling reasons to invest in developing economies.
The ECB’s decision in early December to reduce the monthly pace of its asset purchase program came as a surprise. But investors should draw considerable comfort from its commitment to maintain a “sustained presence” in euro-area markets.
Capital spending, which slowed sharply this year, may be poised for a rebound in 2017. That could be good news for certain cyclical sectors—provided governments make good on their plans to boost fiscal stimulus.
It’s been a wild month for US banking stocks, which have rallied sharply since Donald Trump’s victory. So how can investors position themselves in the sector amid a potentially dramatic change in the business and regulatory environment?
Still casting about for a New Year’s resolution? If you’re an income-conscious investor, try this: expect that something unexpected will happen next year and act now to cushion your portfolio.
Risk appetite has returned to European equity markets. Is there a way to capture the rally of value stocks while mitigating risks across an unsettled region? Focusing on cash flows can make the difference.
Though stable stocks are expensive and look vulnerable to rising interest rates, we still see ways to build a winning defensive portfolio. But it’ll take some unconventional thinking.
Some of Donald Trump’s plans for the US economy may provide a big boost for small stocks. We think there are five compelling reasons for investors to take a closer look at this segment of the market.
When the market starts buzzing about rising rates, high-yield bank loans’ popularity grows. Although the bank loan bandwagon may look tempting, we’ve found reasons why high-yield bonds shouldn’t be so easily dismissed.
The cruelest month? Muni investors would probably say November. But the sell-off that began when Donald Trump won the US election already appears to be running out of steam. Investors who sell now may soon regret it.
Emerging-market stocks have suffered from a Trump-induced hangover after surging through the first 10 months of 2016. We think investors should put the new risks into perspective.
