How much debt is too much? [Carl/The Northern Trust Economics team] digests the outlook for debt across countries and levels of government, recaps the most recent outlook for the U.S. fiscal situation, and contrasts China’s current ascendance with the historical example of Japan.

Northern Trust’s economic team recaps recent economic developments and shares our monthly outlook for economic growth, inflation, employment and interest rates in the United States.

Northern Trust’s Economic Research team shares its quarterly perspective on the growth prospects and challenges ahead for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, China, and Japan.

This issue contains a deeper look into the competitive strategies at play in the current U.S.-China tariff feud, the drivers of the recent upturn in U.S. homeownership, and the market for Japanese government bonds.

One year away from its deadline, Brexit is already shaping up to be an expensive arrangement. Strong U.S. employment makes us question the “natural rate” of unemployment. Do aging populations increase or reduce inflation? Time will tell.

In many respects, economists are a little unusual. We think in odd ways, and we arrange data into odd patterns. We find it hard to reach conclusions without significant equivocation.

We’ve written about the American steel tariffs in each of the last two weeks. But there remain some important points to make on the topic of trade.

We may come to view February 2018 as a turning point for the U.S. economy. For the first nine years of the current expansion, fiscal policy was constrained and trade policy was measured. During the past month, the two have moved with more force, raising important questions about the outlook.

The White House has announced a new set of broad tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The measure is surprising in its scope, its targets and its break from the long-prevailing trends of international trade.

This week, the White House signaled its intention to place punitive tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum. Markets and analysts reacted quickly, and negatively.

U.S. fiscal policy has become unmoored, and it will be difficult to steer it safely back to shore.

I am a traditionalist when it comes to outdoor cooking: wood and charcoal are the only suitable fuels.

It is said we should be careful what we wish for, because we just might get it. Beginning late last week, stocks finally stepped back. Market declines of 5% and even 10% occur with some regularity, even in the midst of long bull intervals

For several years, the U.S. economy has produced a “Goldilocks” combination (neither too hot nor too cold) of solid growth with limited inflation. The absence of price pressures, even at very low levels of unemployment, has surprised many observers.

Given the events of a decade ago, 2018 promises to be a year filled with reminiscence. Chroniclers will recall the signs of the gathering storm: falling U.S. house prices, rising mortgage defaults and spreading institutional failures.

For more than a year, the U.S. Dollar (USD) has been losing value relative to most other currencies. When asked about this trend this week in Davos, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin seemed unconcerned, and even supportive.

Most central banks have targets, too. And judged solely by the numbers, monetary policy would be assigned a substandard rating.

We’ve been doing some de-cluttering at my house, adapting to life as empty nesters. During a review of some long-forgotten storage bins, I found the very first tax return I ever filed. It listed income of less than $2,000, earned lifeguarding and shelving books at the campus library.

As it is for people, so it is for business cycles, which can become more vulnerable as they continue. This theory will certainly be tested in 2018. The global economy enters this year with considerable momentum and lots of policy support.

The economic news this year could scarcely have been better. Strong growth, low inflation and rising asset prices in major markets will make 2017 one of the most successful years in recent memory.

There has been no let-up to the economic news cycle this year. Even the approach of the holiday season has failed to offer a respite, with tax reform deliberations ongoing through the holidays.

Times have changed, in more ways than one. This December has been especially hectic, with the transition in Brexit negotiations, U.S. tax reform debate and Bitcoin setting new highs every few minutes.

We’re thankful for this year’s economic growth in the U.S., which has exceeded most expectations. A soft first quarter has been followed by two quarters in which real activity expanded at an annual pace exceeding 3%.

Has the stock market gotten too expensive? Overall, we would say it hasn't. But we do feel some sectors are better positioned than others.

The elimination of personal exemptions is one of many features of the tax reform proposal presently being debated in Washington. If passed, the new regime would realign the finances of industries, households and even countries.

This month's forecast follows a wave of generally positive economic data that appeared to shake off the weather-related disruptions seen throughout the summer and early fall.

The current situation in Puerto Rico cannot be fully understood without a bit of a history lesson.

As expected, this month's forecast was a little more difficult to assemble. The influence of severe storms on economic activity and economic data made it harder to discern fundamental trends.

All cultures have the challenge of balancing the past and the present. But nowhere is the contrast between the two more apparent than in the Middle East.

We would do well to heed the teaching of behavioralists as we craft solutions to some of today’s thorniest problems.

The German phrase Sturm und Drang (literally: storm and stress) describes situations that become especially dramatic. This seems an apt expression to describe both the immediate past and the near future for the United States economy.

The eurozone has been the brightest star on this year’s economic horizon. The region’s output expanded at a 2.5% pace during the second quarter and has been rising continuously for 48 consecutive months.

Pharmaceutical costs represent about 10% of total U.S. health care expenditures, or about $325 billion each year.

Supply and demand theories suggest worker scarcity would increase the price paid for labor. This has certainly been the case during recent American expansions, when annual wage gains topped 4%.

Warm temperatures prevail in most of the United States at the moment, a trend that is mirrored in recent economic data. We don't expect conditions to cool as autumn approaches.

Monetary Policy Rules: Revisited and Giving Japan Credit