The federal funds rate will remain 3.5% to 3.75%. While the market still expects two rate cuts late this year, the Fed is likely to tread cautiously given the economic backdrop.
Investors are returning to health care stocks, but $1 trillion in government funding cuts and a looming pharma "patent cliff" are among the risks as Q4 earnings reports come due.
While our outlook for the municipal bond market in 2026 is positive overall, we have identified five risks that we believe should be on investors' radar.
Year-end S&P 500 price targets implicitly assume continuity and fail to recognize volatility and macro forces that affect markets throughout any given year.
We expect another generally good year for bond returns this year, but even the best-laid plans can go awry when circumstances change. Here are four risks to our outlook.
EM stocks have increasingly become tied to the fortunes and risks of the growth in AI. Should the AI capex race continue, and earnings estimates are realized, EM stocks have the potential to continue to rise, because valuations are not yet extended.
Big banks begin reporting tomorrow with JPMorgan Chase. Fundamentals may need to be robust to match the sector's recent Wall Street gains, and loan demand could get a close look.
The capture of Venezuelan President Maduro has been digested well by global markets, which is in keeping with 2025’s theme of massive volatility and solid index-level returns.
Our 2026 outlook shows fixed income continuing to benefit from elevated rates, while equities still face a narrowing edge over risk-free investments.
After three strong years in a row, major indexes ended the year seeking direction. While optimism abounds, here are some potential issues that could trip up U.S. stocks.
Understand how a recession is defined and how to avoid common investment mistakes during recession-driven stock market downturns.
Researching lesser-known economic indicators on the thinkorswim® platform is a low-effort way to potentially elevate an investor's game.
Investors are navigating not just uncertainty, but an unstable environment influenced by tariffs and inflation, among other factors. While volatility may increase, there is likely room for another solid year in 2026, especially for fixed income and international stocks
The Federal Reserve lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, as widely expected. However, Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a pause ahead, and there were several dissents.
International stocks could be poised for another strong year in 2026 due to accelerating global growth, attractive valuations and the potential for dollar weakness.
We believe the macro environment will continue to be unstable given policy crosscurrents and a wobbly labor market, but stocks can likely churn higher given a firmer earnings backdrop.
We continue to suggest an up-in-quality fixed income bias for the short run, but investors can still consider some of the riskier parts of the fixed income market in moderation.
We expect 2026 to be another good year for fixed income investors. However, yields that are lower than where they were a year ago and less room for rate cuts by central banks likely will mean less-robust returns.
Thanks to AI-generated power demand, the utilities sector is losing its traditional defensive role. Is this a permanent move, or will utilities ultimately regain their place?
After a gangbuster stock market rally since the early-April lows, many of the prior highfliers have taken a breather amid AI bubble and valuation concerns.
Answers to questions investors are currently asking about Treasury bonds, tax policy, credit quality and other issues currently affecting fixed income investments.
Investors will be looking for a read on hyperscaler AI spending, the impact of rising competition, and expansion to new growth areas in the chipmaker's upcoming Q3 earnings report.
While stock and bond markets wait for U.S. federal data to become available again, private-sector reports suggest lukewarm overall economic growth.
Consumers are in a sour mood over inflation and jobs as major retailers prepare to report earnings and offer their outlooks for the holiday shopping period.
A bipartisan group of senators struck a deal on November 9th to re-open the government, with seven Democrats and one independent joining 52 of the 53 Republicans to reach the elusive 60-vote supermajority needed to move forward.
While we wait for federal data to come back online, private sector gauges continue to underscore still-weak manufacturing, resilient services, and mediocre job growth.
We often hear about the Fed chair, but who are the governors at the Fed and what is their role? Recent events have raised the profile of other Fed interest rate voters.
Though many AI-related stocks continued to struggle, including Advanced Micro Devices despite solid earnings, indexes rebounded early as a private jobs report exceeded forecasts.
German officials announced a massive stimulus program in early 2025. The results have been underwhelming so far, but we believe the economic boost to Germany and Europe is still coming.
The Federal Reserve lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, as widely expected. However, dissenting votes may cloud the path forward.
Effectively reading the Federal Reserve's Beige Book can help investors spot economic, industry, and consumer trends that could potentially impact investment portfolios.
The politics of the government shutdown are about to get trickier. Today is Day 28 of the government shutdown. The Senate will be in session this week, but the House of Representatives remains in recess.
Still-healthy demand and disciplined cost control are central themes for earnings, which continue to suggest a mostly resilient economy in light of government data darkness.
As major tech firms report this week and next, investors will focus on how much they're spending on AI. Cloud competition is also top of mind, along with early iPhone 17 sales.
Earnings growth and attractive valuations for Japanese companies, reforms to corporate governance, and other shifts in the Japanese economy may create opportunities for investors.
The stock and bond markets are taking the government shutdown—and lack of data releases—in stride, but how long the calm might last is an open question.
With Congress unable to reach an agreement on funding the government, a government shutdown began when the new fiscal year started on October 1.
Big banks begin reporting Tuesday and are expected to benefit from a steeper yield curve, strong trading, and investment banking demand. The profit path ahead is less certain.
With official data halted by the U.S. government shutdown, investors turn to private and high-frequency indicators to track jobs, spending, and growth in real time.
President Trump again proposed that companies be required to report twice a year rather than every quarter. What are some pros and cons, and how would it affect investors?
While the Consumer Price Index is closely followed, these five under-the-radar inflation gauges can provide more insight into inflation's trajectory.
The full impact of U.S. import tariffs on the broader economy has yet to be felt and may not happen for some time—or even at all. Economic distortions from tariffs are still filtering through the global economy, but so are offsets such as fiscal and monetary stimulus, as well as spending on artificial intelligence (AI).
The U.S. government bought shares of Intel and other companies and made a deal with Nvidia for some of its revenue. What does this mean for investors and for those firms?
AI technology has the potential to profoundly improve industries and markets, but not without some risks—like valuation and profitability—that investors should be aware of.
BLS and ADP jobs reports often diverge, creating mixed signals. Traders need to know why this happens, and how to use these reports to spot risks, opportunities, and mispricing.
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, can help buffer a portfolio against inflation. However, it's important to understand their unique characteristics and complex nature.
Chinese equities have surged amid investor optimism about AI innovation and certain government initiatives, despite a slowdown in China's economy.
As expected, the Federal Reserve cut its short-term interest rate, citing concerns about slowing job growth. Where Fed policy goes from here is less clear.
Greater mega-cap stock exposure carries significant upside risks, but concentration can also work against investors—helping make the case for diversification in portfolios.
A Federal Reserve rate cut won't necessarily lower longer-term bond yields or mortgage rates.
