The investing industry is constantly devising new acronyms and buzzwords. Sometimes these can be dangerous. The rise of the FANG stocks highlights how clusters of stocks may create investing hazards that standard risk models struggle to detect.
What shouldn’t you do as the Federal Reserve tightens policy? You shouldn’t be passive. Passive muni investors suffer from the painful phenomenon of clipped wings. That’s when passive strategies can’t rapidly reinvest in higher-yielding securities as rates climb, unlike their more nimble, actively investing cousins.
Afraid you’ve missed the rally in emerging-market (EM) assets? Don’t be. Responsible policies and pragmatic politics have taken hold in many developing countries. That bodes well for growth and suggests the rally has room to run.
When the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates, the knee-jerk reaction for many investors is to reduce exposure to US Treasuries and load up on credit assets, which tend to be less sensitive to interest-rate changes.
Sentiment toward hedge funds has been negative in recent years, in large part because industry returns were poor in 2015 and the first half of 2016. Also, CalPERS and other institutions left the asset class, amid a wider debate about active management in general, and hedge funds’ fees, in particular.
Never before in the US have we experienced a natural disaster of the magnitude of Harvey. The damage is of such a degree that we find it nearly impossible to comprehend. Yet Harvey does not stand alone. Climate events that preceded it give us much-needed insight into how municipalities recover, and whether disasters precipitate credit defaults.
From nuclear tensions with North Korea to turmoil on the streets of Charlottesville, political risks have been hovering over equity markets again. We think investors should be on alert for a potential resurgence of volatility.
Preparing for a stock market correction? We’ve got another thing to add to your to-do list: take a look at your fixed-income holdings, too.
Solid economic growth and receding political risk continue to support sentiment towards European equities, despite the recent market pullback. As market conditions shift, a selective focus on companies with underestimated profitability is essential for investment success.
Should tighter monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic worry bond investors? We don’t think so. Bonds have historically delivered positive returns when interest rates rise—particularly when they rise gradually.
Speculation is building about a looming shake-up in the leadership of the US Federal Reserve. Transitions are nothing new—but the stakes this time are unusually high for the economy and markets.
Political fireworks from developed economies have been front and center for most investors. But under the radar screen, there’s been a healthy turnaround in emerging markets that’s generating appealing fixed-income opportunities.
The US Department of Labor (DOL) has cut financial advisors some slack in getting ready to comply with its new fiduciary rule. But defined contribution (DC) plan sponsors don’t have the same luxury.
Equity investors are increasingly focused on short-term results. In an impatient marketplace, investors can discover powerful sources of returns in emerging-market companies that deliver extended growth over several years.
Reading the signs in markets can be tough. When he headed the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan missed early signs of a housing bubble. Now he’s warning of a bond bubble that’s about to burst. We disagree.
Looking for a way to increase your US exposure without adding equities? Need more income but worried about rising rates? US high-yield bonds deserve a place in your portfolio.
The Trump administration is starting to consider a replacement for US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen after her term expires. This is only one potential leadership change in what could be a wave of turnover ahead for the institution.
A decade ago, we got the first warnings that the US subprime crisis would go global. Since then, monetary policy has pushed deep into unconventional territory. How will it respond as the backdrop begins to look more “normal”?
As an asset class, fixed income generates longer-term returns that are largely predictable. So why are those returns not always a reasonably sure thing, and why is there controversy around the methodology being used for making predictions for one sector in particular?
Even amid the midsummer lull, more investors are hunkering down and preparing for a potential correction. As the S&P 500 Index continues its relentless grind higher, we think it’s worth considering proactive steps for a change in the environment.
Equity factors are increasingly used by investors to help guide their portfolio allocations. So it’s important to have a good grasp of what factors are and how they perform through an economic cycle, in order to invest effectively.
The index-tracking trend is firmly entrenched. But do investors recognize the big differences between stock and bond ETFs? And do they appreciate that these can cause European high-yield ETFs to lag?
US equity markets continue to march upward, fueling fears of a correction. History suggests that a downturn is overdue. So how should investors prepare?
Investors who want to reduce risk and maintain a steady income might consider a barbell strategy that pairs interest rate–sensitive bonds with high-yielding credit assets. But first, it’s important to strike the right balance.
Today’s risks are clear: stock valuations are high, credit spreads are tight and interest rates remain low. A modest tilt toward return-seeking assets still makes sense. But investors should also be willing to look beyond traditional stocks and bonds.
For investors in search of a way to boost income and diversify their bond portfolios, now may be the time to consider what local-currency emerging-market bonds offer.
We project solid global economic growth into 2018. The US should continue to raise rates gradually, while tapering of asset purchases moves onto the European Central Bank's agenda in the second half of this year.
After weathering the global financial crisis and an era of heavy regulation, the US banking sector has gotten what looks to be a clean bill of health. We think this opens a lot of possibilities for equity investors.
One of the biggest challenges for bond investors today is keeping income flowing without taking too much risk. We think a balanced barbell approach can help.
Illinois’s fiscal woes, shaped by years of political gridlock, culminated in a rating downgrade to BBB– on June 1. A downgrade to junk is possible. But Illinois could recover its footing, should legislators muster the political will to work together. We know it can be done, because of California’s example.
Economic insecurity, social insecurity and political ineffectiveness: these developments have fed a resurgence of populist policies in many regions of the world. We think there’s potential for major impacts on global capital markets.
It’s been a really good year for equities so far. Paradoxically, this is sowing the seeds of anxiety. Valuations are higher, so people are worried about a correction. Subdued volatility has stoked fears of renewed turbulence.
US growth stocks surged in the first half of 2017, fueled by mega-cap technology companies. Active managers of growth portfolios have done especially well, reinforcing the case for stock-picking strategies.
Disruptive forces are wreaking havoc across the global business world. But not all disruption is fatal. Lots of companies are facing the threat—and thriving. We think they deserve more credit than investors are giving them.
MSCI has announced that China A-shares will be included in its emerging-market (EM) index next year, as we anticipated. Now, global equity investors need to consider how to access the vast universe of stocks traded onshore in China.
Rising interest rates. Stretched valuations. Populist politics. These are some of the challenges bond investors face today. They’re also reminders of why it’s so important to manage interest-rate and credit risk in an integrated way.
Populism is here—and it isn’t going away. The ideology can come from either side of the political spectrum, and it can have a big impact on policy, the macroeconomic landscape and—ultimately—how we invest today.
Passive investing strategies continue to attract big money. But think carefully before choosing to track a benchmark in emerging markets (EM). Active managers offer several clear benefits for equity investors in the developing world.
Healthcare continues to generate political controversy. So should investors stay away? Absolutely not. What’s important is to target companies that are positioned to deliver long-term growth no matter what happens to the US healthcare system.
On the surface, passive municipal ladders seem like a sensible investment. Simple. Easy. Cheap. But the numbers don’t lie.
May’s labor-market report disappointed, with every meaningful indicator lower than expected and down from last month. But we don’t believe it’s weak enough to stop a June rate hike or knock the Fed off track.
Political noise emanating from Washington has prompted fresh concerns that a US equity market correction may be looming. But have no fear: the market often takes a leg down, only to bounce back quickly.
Stock market volatility is unusually low these days. Does that mean investors are complacent? We don’t think so. In fact, some risk indicators suggest market participants may be less relaxed than they seem.
Rising interest rates make bond investors nervous. But purging your portfolio of interest-rate risk can backfire—even in a rising-rate environment. There’s a better way to balance risk and return.
Investors are wary about US stock multiples. But elevated valuations of high-growth stocks may be deceiving. Growth overachievers that can deliver persistent fundamental strength often make a mockery of their short-term valuations in hindsight.
Volatility is remarkably low today, but it’s not likely to stay that way. Alternatives have the potential to provide diversification and reduce risk when markets get stormy again. But what’s the best way to design an alternatives allocation?
The defined contribution (DC) community has been buzzing about lifetime-income products lately. It’s a topic that’s been dormant for several years, but there are good reasons for renewed interest.
US inflation bounced back last month, but by less than expected. The data should support two more rate hikes in 2017, but if inflation doesn’t pick up, it may impact plans for more aggressive policy tightening down the road.
