Weakness in the Chinese economy is becoming clearer, while the way forward for Brexit is anything but clear. And what exactly does "tighter financial conditions" mean?
Markets struggle to price new risks, and the U.S. government shutdown grows in severity.
Major economies are positioned to keep growing in the year ahead, but risks are mounting.
Six themes emerge as we look back on a busy year of economic news.
Several years into the recovery from the global economic crisis, the jobs of central banks have only become more difficult. How are indebtedness, inequality, inflation and instability contributing to their problems, and what can we expect from future interest rate decisions?
Private, public and international pension plans are all due for a reckoning.
The global economy looks set to move into a lower gear as both advanced and emerging economies will find it hard to extend their recent robust economic performance into 2019.
Senior Economist Ryan Boyle looks at how America accumulated so many student loans, and how best to deal with them going forward.
Dramatic events surrounding Brexit left Theresa May’s government balancing on a precipice. What are the economic implications? Later in the column, we examine U.S. drug prices and possible solutions to exploding costs.
The World Trade Organization plays a crucial role in global trade. How essential is it, and what can we expect as trade tensions rise?
How will the results of the U.S. midterm elections be reflected in trade agreements, legislation and international relations?
This week, we evaluate the potential near-term futures of nationalism, inflation, demographic shifts, emerging markets and the effects of prosperity. What trends can we expect to encounter?
Is the International Monetary Fund a useful tool in preventing economic dysfunction? Or, as the nationalists claim, are there more appropriate uses of capital?
With USMCA and Brexit negotiations, nations are reworking the world’s most fundamental trade agreements. How will these new treaties affect global relations?
What do a Nobel Prize, oil prices and employee compensation have in common? Change. The Nobel committee tipped its hat to the importance of recognizing climate change with its prize for Economic Sciences. But changes in oil’s global role and compensation vs. wages are also on our minds
Both the U.S. state of Illinois and the nation of Brazil suffer from fiscal deficits that have been years in the making. How can these trends be reversed, and will the upcoming elections for each government contribute to a solution?
Until this year, the global economy had been characterized by three years of strong, synchronized growth with subdued inflation—the “not too hot, not too cold” characteristics of a “Goldilocks” economy. Though global growth is still relatively resilient, inflation risk is clearly on the rise, driven by high commodity prices and tight labor markets.
This week, we look back at EU's recovery from the global financial crisis and the new normal of the US housing market. They have both recovered, but are we on the right path?
This week, the team looks at what’s ahead for the Fed
Reflecting on ten years since the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy: Households have reduced their borrowing, but governments haven’t. Debates over the response to the financial crisis may never end. Non-bank lenders have thrived while managing their risks.
In the span of human history, retirement is a fairly new idea. Only a few generations ago, most of our ancestors could expect to work until the end of their lives. We are happy to report this is no longer the case. Improving longevity brings the opportunity for retirement, but also the responsibility for preparing. Unfortunately, many Americans have not handled this responsibility very well at all.
Northern Trust’s Economic Research team shares its monthly perspective on the growth prospects and challenges ahead for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, China, and Japan.
Infrastructure investment promises are politically popular, but actual funding has been slow to follow. Italy’s bridge collapse illustrates the real risks of putting off infrastructure projects. The shortage of truck drivers in the U.S. is driving inflation, and this labor market gap looks likely to last.
This week, the NT Economic team covers the following topics:- Turkey’s Troubles- Should countries try to control capital?- Labor markets work best when there are no guarantees
The economic team looks at the possibility of a bad Brexit.
The Northern Trust economics team explores India, recaps revisions to U.S. economic measurements, and gauges potential future economic growth.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its monthly perspective on the growth prospects and challenges ahead for key markets.
The Northern Trust Economics team tracks China’s fiscal policies and exchange rate volatility, and reacts to recent comments that undermine the Fed’s independence
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook on the Fed’s balance sheet, the world's persistent preference for cash, and the challenge of measuring the gig economy.
The Northern Trust economics team explores agriculture markets globally and in the United States.
The Northern Trust Economics team addresses a variety of questions heard most often from our audiences.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, employment, inflation, and interest rates in the U.S., U.K., E.U., Japan and China.
The economics team surveys a variety of upcoming events: Mexican elections this weekend, trade battles in the coming months, and LIBOR sunsetting in the years ahead.
China is in focus this week as the economics team considers the country’s trade practices and defaults in its bond market.
What happened at the Fed and the ECB meetings? The economics team explains.
The team illustrates the economic background behind the Korean summit meeting and profiles corporate debt.
The Northern Trust Economics team recaps the circumstances that led to this week’s drama in Italy and investigates a slowdown in U.S. business formation.
Public debt may be growing at the expense of private debt, the Chinese bond market is opening up, and important dates for tariffs are fast approaching.
In this issue, the Economics team looks at current recession risks in the U.S. and eurozone, and explores how rising oil prices will affect U.S. consumers.
The Northern Trust economics team explores the risks of overstretched state and local governments, dramatic actions in Argentina and Turkey, and the recent difficulty of the carry trade.
Oil prices are rising. We explore the causes of this recent trend and the effects it will have on markets across the world.
This week, the economics team takes a look at NAFTA, past and present.
In this issue, the Northern Trust economics team explores the challenges facing Ireland in Brexit, the continuing demand for eurozone debt, and wage growth within U.S. states.
How much debt is too much? [Carl/The Northern Trust Economics team] digests the outlook for debt across countries and levels of government, recaps the most recent outlook for the U.S. fiscal situation, and contrasts China’s current ascendance with the historical example of Japan.
Northern Trust’s Economic Research team shares its quarterly perspective on the growth prospects and challenges ahead for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, China, and Japan.
This issue contains a deeper look into the competitive strategies at play in the current U.S.-China tariff feud, the drivers of the recent upturn in U.S. homeownership, and the market for Japanese government bonds.
One year away from its deadline, Brexit is already shaping up to be an expensive arrangement. Strong U.S. employment makes us question the “natural rate” of unemployment. Do aging populations increase or reduce inflation? Time will tell.
In many respects, economists are a little unusual. We think in odd ways, and we arrange data into odd patterns. We find it hard to reach conclusions without significant equivocation.
We’ve written about the American steel tariffs in each of the last two weeks. But there remain some important points to make on the topic of trade.
