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International Equity Commentary
by Team of Thomas White International,
International equity prices saw robust gains in September as the U.S. Federal Reserve unexpectedly refrained from reducing its bond purchase programs. In addition, the lowering of the U.S. growth forecast by the Fed lifted investor optimism that the quantitative easing is likely to be wound down at a very gradual pace.
Investment Bulletin: Global Equity Strategy
by Team of Bedlam Asset Management,
The portfolio enjoyed another index-beating month with a gain of 0.9% versus 0.6%, so improving further the long term numbers. As noted in previous Bulletins, correlations between growth and equity market returns are low. Investors remain fixated otherwise, but some confusion is reasonable given that growth in earnings per share is also slowing. Yet strong equity markets can be justified by the Free Lunch Theory.
Emerging Europe: Regional Economic Review - 3Q 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) further trimmed its forecast for global growth. The Washington-based lender said expansion will be driven more by developed economies as emerging markets grapple with slowing growth and a tighter global financial scenario as interest rates hint of trending higher in advanced economies such as the United States. However, a reading of economic tea leaves for the Euro-zone and economies such as Russia, Turkey, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic offers room for optimism.
Singaporean Consumer Consumption and Confidence is Weak - Should Investors Worry?
by Team of Manning & Napier,
Singapore is the worlds 35th largest economy by nominal GDP, yet ranks 6th in the world by GDP per capita, signifying its position as an advanced and highly-productive economy. With an efficient regulatory framework, low tax rates, and a flexible labor market, Singapore has a reputation for being one of the most business-friendly countries in the world.
Lackluster Employment Report Leaves Fed on Hold
by Team of Northern Trust,
The sluggish hiring pace visible in the September employment report justifies the Federal Reserves decision to postpone tapering of asset purchases. Data for the September report were gathered prior to the government shutdown, but October employment numbers will contain distortions arising from not collecting data during the typical survey period, rendering comparisons difficult.
Middle East/Africa: Regional Economic Review - 3Q 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
Economic activity in the Middle-East and North Africa (MENA) has been hindered by prolonged political unrest and civil strife. The regions vulnerability has increased over the last two years due to mounting structural challenges. Whats more, widening fiscal deficits due to the economic slowdown and dwindling foreign currency reserves remain sources of concern, as noted by a World Bank report.
Fixed Income Investment Outlook
by Team of Osterweis Capital Management,
Last quarter we wrote about the confusion that can be created by the Federal Reserves (Feds) two official mandates: keeping inflation in check and ensuring full employment. We also pointed out that given the rather fragile economic backdrop, talk of letting the economy stand on its own two feet by reducing their bond buying might be premature. During the third quarter, it appeared most economists felt comfortable that the Fed would indeed begin tapering its purchase of Treasuries and mortgage securities after the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetin
The U.S. Budget Deal: Peace, for a Time
by Team of Northern Trust,
Less than 24 hours before the U.S. Treasury Department ran out of room to borrow, Congress arrived at an agreement to reopen the government and steer away from debt default. This news came as a great relief, but that feeling may only last a few months. Following are some highlights and an initial analysis of the accord.
Economic Assessment Without Government Reports
by Team of Northern Trust,
The very near-term economic outlook is unclear and will remain so until the political impasse in Washington over the government shutdown and debt ceiling is settled. If differences are resolved in a day or two, the damage could be about 0.2 percentage points to fourth quarter real gross domestic product (GDP). A failure to raise the debt ceiling would more of a calamity, which we hope not to encounter.
Pacific Basin Market Overview - September 2013
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
North Asian markets ended higher during the quarter after comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke appeared to infer that the Feds asset purchase program would be extended for a while longer. On the other hand, India and the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region underperformed along with weakening currencies and continued fund outflows. In China, Premier Li Keqiangs statement that China would meet its gross domestic product (GDP) growth target this year, coupled with better-than-expected economic data, brought some relief to the equity markets.
Equity Outlook
by Team of Osterweis Capital Management,
As we write this outlook, our political leaders once again have succeeded in holding the U.S. government budget, and by extension the financial markets and the broader economy, hostage to their respective political agendas. We believe it is important to avoid getting caught up in the drama on Capitol Hill and remain focused on the slow but continued healing taking place in the U.S. economy.
A Degree in Debt: Student Loans and the Economy
by Team of Manning & Napier,
Recent times have drawn concerns about student loan debt and rising delinquencies. Anecdotes of unfortunate individuals struggling financially to cope with massive student loans raise fears of broader risks to the US economy and financial markets.
Economic and Market Overview: Third Quarter 2013
The economic environment in the third quarter was one of growth, albeit at a slower pace than most economists, and the Federal Reserve (?Fed?), believe can be self-?sustaining. The slow but steady gains the economy made were enough to buoy the stock market, but likely only because the Fed has seen it necessary to maintain its aggressive monetary policy. While employment gains were anemic during the quarter, the unemployment rate actually declined to 7.3%, largely due to a contraction in the labor force.
Fixed-Income Sector Report - High Yield and Bank Loan Outlook
by Team of Guggenheim Investments,
Fundamental factors underlying the corporate sector continue to underscore our constructive stance on leveraged credit, however, investors should prepare for heightened Q4 volatility amid shifting technical dynamics in the bank loan market.
Government Shutdown and Beyond
by Team of Neuberger Berman,
After months of eerie quiet in Washington, DC, fiscal conflicts have taken center stage, most prominently with the October 1 "shutdown" of U.S. government services. Markets are nervously watching if Congress can move past current wrangling to create a workable budget while navigating both the debt ceiling and shutdown-related fallout. In this issue of Strategic Spotlight, we consider how the budget debates could play out and the implications for investors.
Investment Bulletin: Global Income Strategy
by Team of Bedlam Asset Management,
The Global Income equity strategy is unconstrained by geography, sector or stock, and is committed to achieving the target yield based on the opening NAV at the beginning of each financial year of 4.5%, payable in equal quarterly dividends with any excess paid out at the end of the year. It may only invest in companies with an historic dividend yield of at least 2.5% based on the price at the date of purchase. There is a bar on using derivatives or options to achieve the target yield and it must invest in a company on its merits rather than rotational dividend stripping.
Investment Bulletin: Emerging Markets Equity
by Team of Bedlam Asset Management,
Since the start of the year to date, the portfolio has whupped the index by over 1,100 basis points, with a real gain against an index loss. Overall, the developed market (DM) index easily outperformed that for emerging markets (EM). This is expected to continue at the index level, partially because of weaker earnings growth and for political/social reasons. Analysts crank out studies on their companies, yet few look up from their spreadsheets to take a wider view encompassing politics and real people.
High Yield Market Overview August 2013
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
The high yield market, as measured by the Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Master II Constrained Index, was down 0.62% for the month of August. Political uncertainties continue to weigh on investor sentiment, including a potential military response to Syria and the U.S. approaching the debt ceiling limit in mid-October. Uncertainty about Fed policy and who will be the next Chairman are also in the background.
FOMC Preview: Taper Likely To Be Deferred or Minimal
by Team of Northern Trust,
Market participants have been working overtime to refine their expectations of what the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) might do at its meeting next week. Many are calling for a cut in the Feds pace of asset purchases from the current level of $85 billion per month.
Waiting for Clarity From the Fed and Congress
by Team of Northern Trust,
U.S. economic growth averaged roughly 2.0% in the first half of the year and the average gain of real gross domestic product (GDP) during the entire 16-quarter economic recovery is 2.2%. Real GDP is projected to grow close to this trend in the second half of the year.
Pacific Basin Market Overview August 2013
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
Asian equity markets ended lower in August, chiefly due to concerns about currency weakness in India and Indonesia, while improved macroeconomic data from China contributed to this markets outperformance. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Free Index including Japan fell by 1.3% while the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Free Index closed 0.71% lower during the month. (All performance figures are based on MSCI indices in U.S. dollar terms with dividends included unless otherwise stated.)
September Investment Bulletin: Global Equity Strategy
by Team of Bedlam Asset Management,
Year-to-date end-August the strategy performed well with a gain of 22.2% vs. 14.6% for the benchmark. During the month, the index tumbled 3.9%, partly out of fear of foreign military action in Syria and partly that central banks would cease printing money to hold down interest rates commonly known as tapering. Even so, the portfolio held up in August, with a much lesser 2.4% fall, thereby further widening outperformance over the index to 760 basis points so far in 2013.
India and Indonesia
by Team of Matthews Asia,
Comments from the Federal Reserve to begin reducing its stimulus operations have weighed heavily on markets across Asia in recent weeks. Growing investor concerns have largely centered on those economies that have been running current account deficits and that are likely to be further impacted by lower growth forecasts and reduced capital inflows. More short term, speculative flows from investors into fast-growing Asian economies have also fallen as expectations for higher interest rates in the U.S. have risen.
Momentum in Europe
We think now is a good time to be investing in Europe. European equity valuations are at the lowest level in more than 40 years, by some measures, and we are seeing green shoots in the regions downtrodden economy. Meanwhile, European companies in several industries have right-sized their cost structures or refocused their businesses, setting them up to be more competitive on a global scale.
Monthly Investment Commentary
U.S. stocks resumed their positive streak in July (after a slightly negative June). Large-cap stocks rose in three out of the four weeks and were up 5% for the month. Smaller companies generally outperformed their larger-cap counterparts. After Federal Reserve comments regarding the timing of its stimulus withdrawal upset markets in May and June (particularly the bond market), investors seemed to take comfort in the Feds more recent comments. Among other points, Chairman Bernanke reiterated that a decision to taper bond purchases is different from raising the federal funds rate
Weekly Market Review Notes
by Team of Tuttle Tactical Management,
Yesterday was a pretty big down day for the market. The media blamed it on fear about a war in Syria. If the market sold off every time there was a war or fear of a war in the Middle East then the Dow would be at 100 by now. What you had was a market that was slightly overbought in the short term, a week when tons of people are on vacation, and an excuse to take profits. Moves like this are disconcerting but at the end of the day they are just noise. For Syria to cause a real market decline it would have to morph into a massive war that engulfs the entire Middle East.
Inflation Update
by Team of North Peak Asset Management,
As can be seen in the schematic above, most portfolios are effectively a bet on a low inflation environment due to their heavy reliance on mainstream equities and fixed income securities. In order to protect a portfolio from the damage that inflation can inflict, asset classes that are sensitive to increases in inflation need to be incorporated into the asset mix. These include Inflation Linked Bonds (TIPS), Precious Metals, Global Natural Resource equities and Commodities.
Weekly Market Review Notes
by Team of Tuttle Tactical Management,
This was a tough week for the markets as the long expected and healthy correction finally surfaced. Times like these can be a little nerve wracking is there are always now shortage of people to go on CNBC and claim that the sky is falling.
August Monthly Investment Bulletins
by Team of Bedlam Asset Management,
For the first seven months of the year the portfolio rose by 25.2% vs. 19.3% for the index. During the month, the 6.4% gain was 150 basis points ahead. Three trends continued: the gradual increase in fund flows into equity markets relative to other asset classes, slightly improving economic data across most developed countries, and a mild deterioration in many developing nations.
Pacific Basin Market Overview July 2013
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
Asian markets ended higher in July after comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke appeared to infer that the Feds asset purchase program would be extended for a while longer. In China, Premier Li Keqiang stated that China would meet its gross domestic product (GDP) growth target this year, which brought some cheer to the markets. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Free Index including Japan gained 1.5% while the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Free Index closed 2.0% higher during the quarter.
Preparing for Rising Interest Rates: Bond Ladder vs. Bond Fund Ladder
The last few years have seen interest rates hold steady or drift lower, causing investors to be concerned about how their fixed income portfolios will be affected when rates eventually rise. The question is, how can investors protect themselves from rising rates while still earning income while they wait?
High Yield Market Overview July 2013
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
The high yield market, as measured by the Bank of America Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Constrained Index, was up 1.88% for the month of July. High yield recovered some of the sell-off experienced in May and June as Treasury yields stabilized and mutual fund and ETF (exchange traded fund) flows turned positive. The markets rally occurred as rate fears subsided, which resulted in retail flows returning to the asset class.
Emerging Asia Pacific: Regional Economic Review - Q2 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
Asias emerging nations, the darling of the world economy since the 2000s, uncharacteristically slowed in the first quarter of 2013. After a decade of robust growth, many of Asias fast-growing economies are coming to terms with structural changes. Asian currencies, which had appreciated quite a bit over the past few years thanks to ultra-loose monetary policy in the developed world, came tumbling down at the first talk of a slowdown in the supply of cheap money.
Developed Asia Pacific: Regional Economic Review Q2 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
Many developed economies in the Asia Pacific region rebounded during the second quarter of 2013 to post a healthy set of growth and inflation numbers. Turning on the monetary spigots during the past one year provided a major fillip to many developed Asian economies. Countries that fumbled in the wake of natural disasters in the recent past, showed marked improvement. Even those countries that were said to be suffering from structural deficiencies, too, responded well to the monetary medicine administered by their various central banks.
Quarterly Letter
by Team of Grey Owl Capital Management,
To begin, let us state that we are tired of writing about macroeconomic issues. We suspect you are tired of reading about them. We would like nothing more than to send out a quarterly letter full of updates on the companies we own and the rationale for individual buy and sell decisions. Nevertheless, we must address the market action following Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernankes May 22nd testimony before Congress, where he merely floated the idea of tapering the Feds quantitative easing efforts.
Weekly Market Commentary
by Team of Tuttle Tactical Management,
The trend in stocks is still up but the rally is still showing signs of being "tired". That should change this week as we have a lot of data coming out about jobs and inflation, the two things that the Fed cares most about and the two things that will impact Fed policy going forward. I would expect large moves one way or the other depending on how the market thinks the Fed will react to the data.
Why Tinkering Too Much with Your Portfolio Won't Pay Off
by Team of Knowledge @ Wharton,
When it comes to your investment portfolio, how much attention is too much -- and what constitutes too little? In a recent paper, Wharton finance professor Andrew B. Abel and two colleagues found that even when transaction costs are small, it makes more sense to act according to a schedule with surprisingly long intervals. Too much fussing, in other words, is counterproductive -- even if its cheap.
Is It Time for the Fed to Wind Down the Economic Stimulus?
by Team of Knowledge @ Wharton,
Is it time for the Federal Reserve to start tapering down the "quantitative easing" bond-buying program that has helped stimulate the U.S. economy since the financial crisis of 2008? Views are mixed. Several experts, say yes, its time. Others worry it could be too soon.
Fed in Watch-and-Wait Mode
by Team of Northern Trust,
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) today held unchanged its current asset purchase program of $85 billion per month. The Federal Reserve avoided providing new nuances to existing forward guidance and re-issued the June policy statement with minor modifications to reflect recent economic developments.
Still High Time for High Yield?
Given recent strong performance and yields hovering at historic lows, a current topic of debate has been whether the high yield bond market has become an asset bubble and how much of a risk is the potential end to the Federal Reserve?s accommodative monetary policy to high yield investors. While we at Rainier acknowledge there are current risks in the fixed income market, we believe these concerns are not unique to high yield bonds.
Results 1,701–1,750
of 2,793 found.
