Search Results
Results 1,651–1,700
of 2,793 found.
Emerging Europe: Regional Economic Review - 4Q 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
The club of emerging European economies expanded, as Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) moved Greece from developed to the status of an emerging economy. The majority of the countries covered in this review, including the new entrant, had something to look up to in the New Year.
2013 Year-End Investment Commentary
by Team of Litman Gregory,
We find ourselves with a more sanguine big-picture view, at least over the nearer term, than we have had in some time. U.S. and global economic fundamentals gradually improved over the past year across a number of dimensions, and seem poised for continued improvement or at least stability in 2014. However, as we look ahead, the longer-term risks related to excessive global debt, subpar growth, and unprecedented government policy that we have worried about since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis still remain largely unresolved.
Dr. Copper: Prognosis Negative
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
Dr. Copper, aptly named for the metals ability to gauge the strength of the global economy, is not giving the most upbeat prognosis at the moment. In fact, with todays weakness the intermediate term trendline is being tested. A decisive breach of this important trendline would likely lead to a testing of the low made last June and would probably be accompanied by rising concerns of deflation and slow global growth.
FOMC Sticks With the Tapering Plan
by Team of Northern Trust,
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at the conclusion of its meeting today announced a further $10 billion reduction in its monthly rate of asset purchases. The increment was similar in size and composition to the first tapering step taken in December.
Middle East/Africa: Regional Economic Review - 4Q 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates weak growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region mainly due to heightened political instability. Whats more, after years of healthy performance, growth in the oil exporting nations is expected to lose pace due to lower international demand and local oil supply disruptions. Given that these countries are witnessing a population boom, the IMF emphasized the need for economic diversification by the oil exporters and job creation in private non-oil sectors.
TIPS And Inflation Reality
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
By decomposing a US Treasury bond, we can get a sense of the markets expectations for real rates and inflation expectations. The inflation component is easy to flesh out by just subtracting the TIPS yield, for the same maturity, from the nominal bond interest rate. From there, we can compare the implied breakeven inflation rate embedded in long bonds to actual measures of inflation.
2014: Once more for '84
by Team of Smead Capital Management,
Since our thinking is always dominated by owning businesses which meet our eight investment criteria in a long-duration time frame, we continue to remain vigilant of the circumstances around us. To that end, we thought it would be helpful to review a similar historical situation and glean a feel for what was wise behavior back then and what might be wise behavior as we look forward to the year 2014.
Let the taper begin! Fixed Income Investment Outlook
by Team of Osterweis Capital Management,
At the December meeting, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) decided to reduce its purchases of Treasury and mortgage securities (a.k.a. quantitative easing/QE) beginning in January 2014. This answered the question of when the taper would begin, and the markets reacted predictably. Two questions remain, however: How long until the Fed completely winds down QE; and when will short rates begin to reflect the improving economy? We feel it may be sooner on the former and could be quite some time on the latter.
Investing Today with Long-Term Trends in Mind
by Team of Manning & Napier,
Short-term news may drive day-to-day market volatility, but over time the long-term trends ultimately matter. In this post, we examine the long-term trends that most investors are not focusing on today, and the potential risks and opportunities that lie ahead for those most affected - the Boomers (those commonly born between 1946 and 1964, and the Millennials (oftentimes those born between 1980 and 1999).
High Yield and Bank Loan Outlook- January 2014
by Team of Guggenheim Investments,
Improving U.S. macroeconomic conditions should spur additional investor demand for high-yield bonds and bank loans, particularly with defaults exceptionally low. Still, investors should monitor trends pointing to an erosion of safety in leveraged credit.
2014 Economic and Investment Outlook
Although the December 2013 U.S. budget pact between House and Senate negotiators was a welcome development, partisan battles over government spending still are possible in 2014. The agreement ends a three-year budget fight and sets government spending through fall 2015, but it does not eliminate the need to raise the nations borrowing limit - the "debt ceiling."
2014 Outlook: The Emergence of a Global Expansion
by Team of Loomis, Sayles & Co.,
After years of a global recovery characterized by fits and starts, we expect more synchronized global growth in 2014. Global GDP growth will accelerate modestly from 2.7% in 2013 to approximately 3.4% in 2014, primarily driven by larger advanced economies. In particular, we are optimistic that US growth will be sustainable. The fading economic drag from government policy and the ongoing housing recovery should help boost US GDP growth toward 3% as the year progresses. The UK is poised for a similar rate of expansion in 2014, and Europe will likely post positive growth in the coming year.
Is 2% Growth The New Normal For Consumption?
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
From 1960 to November 2007 (the 2007-2009 recession started December 2007 according to NBER), real personal consumption expenditures grew at just about 3.5% trend growth. In this recovery, consumption as only mustered a growth rate just above 2%. Is this another permanent downshift in consumption growth or will consumption ratchet back up? Something we will be keeping an eye on.
Stanley Black & Decker: Powering Its Way Toward Fair Value
by Team of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) is a machine tools company built on namesakes of - you guessed it - three individuals with the last names: Stanley, Black and Decker. Frederick Stanley started a hardware manufacturing company in 1843. Duncan Black and Alonzo Decker started a similar shop in 1910, becoming known for the worlds first patent for a portable power tool. In 2010 the two companies merged to form what is today Stanley Black & Decker.
Payment Industry - Follow the Money
by Team of Baird Investment Management,
The substantial growth in credit and debit card usage is a multi-decade trend driven by increased global consumer activity and a shift in behavior to less transactions completed by cash or check. As the buzz of the holiday season takes hold, consumers wouldnt think twice about leaving home with just a debit or credit card in hand. The simple act of a purchase followed by swiping a plastic card occurs a staggering several hundred million times each day, with a step up in activity during the holiday season.
This Bull Market Is Narrowings As It Advances...Market Breadth Continues Deteriorating
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
The advance-decline ratio is a market breadth indicator that compares the number of stocks that closed higher with the number of stocks that closed lower than their previous days closing prices. Its a useful tool to understand whether there is broad participation in a market move or if a few very large cap stocks are driving indices one way or another.
Debt Crisis Recovery: Bell Curves and Balance Sheets
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
The purchasing power parity (PPP) theory basically states that the exchange rate between two countries should adjust so that a basket of goods in Country X costs the same as it does in Country Y when priced in the same currency. It is a useful theory in understanding the relative strength of a currency, especially for a reserve currency such as the USD. It is important to keep in mind that over/under valuation based on PPP can remain in place for years and that this is not at all a timing tool.
To Taper Or Not To Taper? Digging In To Today's Employment Report
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
Todays employment and personal income and outlays reports may be strong enough for the Fed to begin tapering later this month. November employment came in at 203k jobs and the unemployment report dipped to a 5-year low (7%). The net revisions for September and October were also 8k higher.
Emerging Asia Pacific: Regional Economic Review - Q3 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
The second half of 2013 has posed significant challenges to growth in major Emerging Asia Pacific economies. Almost all emerging Asia Pacific economies showed signs of strain arising from stubborn inflation, higher interest rates, slower consumer spending and lukewarm exports.
Economic Cycle Update: Evidence Suggesting Slow Growth Reigns
by Team of Manning & Napier,
Since the start of the current recovery, we have made the case that the economy would grow at a slower pace compared to most other expansions in recent memory. The consumer factored prominently in this outlook as they embarked on a long overdue period of balance sheet repair. Corporations would have little reason to invest if consumer growth was weak and large fiscal deficits would limit the ability of the federal government to contribute to growth.
China's Great Leap
Chinas government just announced it would take a big step back...and let its economy take a giant leap forward. We believe Chinas proposed economic reforms will transform the economy and should allay investors main concerns about Chinese markets. In Janus latest Equity Monthly, our equity team offers its perspective on Chinas Great Leap.
Global Economic Overview - October 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
Global economic trends continue to see gradual improvement, though the progress has become less steady. The developed economies remain the major drivers of global growth, but data from some of the regions have not met expectations.
Wal-Mart: Fairly Valued Retail Powerhouse
by Team of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
This Bentonville, AR based mega-retailer perennially ranks amongst the top of the Fortune 500 list and likely needs no introduction. In lieu of a business summary, we thought it might be interesting to highlight some prominent statistics. For instance, every week more than 245 million customers visit Wal-Marts (WMT) 11,000 stores under 69 banners in 27 different countries. Last year alone the company had sales of about $466 billion while employing 2.2 million associates.
When the Stimulus Stops, Cash Flow Matters
Several rounds of massive stimulus by the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates well below where they would otherwise be, buoying both stock and bond markets. As stock prices have reached new peaks, many professional investors consider current valuations to be stretched. When the stimulus finally stops, a new era of rising interest rates will likely take hold. And experienced investors know that rising interest rates and high valuations and can be a dangerous combination. Read more.
Looking Beyond Inventories
by Team of Northern Trust,
Inventories have the habit of offering surprises in reports of real gross domestic product (GDP). The third quarter GDP report was one such occurrence, with inventories making an unexpectedly hefty contribution. A reversal of this event is most likely to influence the headline GDP number in the final three months of the year.
Developed Asia Pacific: Regional Economic Review Q3 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
Developed Asia Pacific economies were back on their feet during the second quarter of 2013 as economic growth gained momentum, inflation fell mildly and exports climbed strongly. Most developed countries in the region such as Japan, Australia, and New Zealand reported a sharp positive swing in consumer and business confidence. Predominantly expansionary monetary and fiscal policies also helped keep the pace of economic recovery.
Accenture: Continuing To Deliver A Growth Story
by Team of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Accenture (ACN) is a global management consulting, technology services and outsourcing company with approximately 275,000 people serving clients in more than 120 countries. As of the end of fiscal year 2013, the company had revenues just shy of $29 billion and a market capitalization that was roughly double that amount. Additionally, Accenture provides services to a wide spectrum of industries ranging from Automotive and Aerospace to Energy and Travel. Effectively, Accenture wants to deliver a high performance solution to whatever problem you have on hand.
Penske Automotive Group: Fast Cars, Fast Growth
by Team of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
If we told you about a company that saw earnings per share drop by nearly half from $1.49 a share to $0.86 during the recession, what would you think? Before you answer, its important to also point out that the company suspended its dividend from late 2008 until early 2011 as well. At first blush this might seem like a worst case scenario. Usually we go about our research time looking for the best companies that have held up even in the worst of times this type of company does not fit the bill. Yet what is not readily obvious is the fact this would have been the best time to buy.
What Price for Growth?
Cloud computing and social media are bringing a level of disruption and innovation not seen in the technology sector since the dot-com era. The troubling aspect is that valuations for many of these companies seem just as stretched as Internet stocks were back then. We think investors may be paying too much for the growth inherent in these companies.
Emerging Markets Equity Commentary
by Team of Thomas White International,
Emerging market equity prices saw a robust recovery in September as investor concerns about slower capital inflows to these markets faded after the U.S. Federal Reserve unexpectedly decided to delay the tapering of bond purchases.
Third Quarter Letter
by Team of Grey Owl Capital Management,
Despite the recent shenanigans in Washington concerning funding the government and raising the debt ceiling, as well as the constant news coverage of the quantitative easing taper that the Federal Reserve may or may not begin, we are going to spare (at least for this quarter) both you and us another long discussion of these very real issues.
Results 1,651–1,700
of 2,793 found.
