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Emerging Markets Outlook - April 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
Emerging market equities as an asset class have been underperforming developed market equities for more than three years, though they continue to maintain the lead over 10-year returns. The divergence in returns between emerging and developed markets widened sharply in 2013, when the prospect of reduced capital inflows heightened investor concerns about slower economic growth in the emerging countries.
Gaming The System = Lower Rates
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
Many are shocked to learn that the Fed's payment of 25bps of interest on excess reserves (a clear banking subsidy) is available to foreign banks, and they have parked substantial sums with the Fed. In the chart below we show the total assets of foreign banks with branches in the US, their cash assets and the percent of assets represented by cash assets. Currently, foreign banks represent 51% of the excess reserves on deposit with the Fed.
Americas: Regional Economic Review - Q1 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
The developed economies in North America continue to see relatively healthier growth prospects this year, while the outlook for the emerging economies in Latin America remains subdued. Trends from both the U.S. and Canada indicate that these economies are recovering from the slowdown at the beginning of the year, caused by adverse weather.
Weekly Market Update
by Team of Castleton Partners,
With the crisis in Ukraine escalating, US Treasury yields were able to grind marginally lower last week, despite improving economic data pointing to gradually improving fundamentals. At a yield of 2.67%, 10 year Treasury rates have been confined to a 25 basis point trading range over the last 12 weeks (2.57%- 2.82%), which according to Bloomberg, is the narrowest such range in the last two decades.
The Rate at Which Foreigners are Dumping Japanese Stocks is Slowing
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
Foreigners have been net sellers of Japanese stocks in 2014 but that trend may have seen its climax. Data released today showed that foreigners were actually net buyers of stocks for the week ending April 18th, which marks the second week of net buying out of the last three.
Apple: Can't Buy My Love
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
Yesterday Apple announced a whopping $90 billion stock buyback, to be completed by the end of 2015. This means they will be buying roughly $45 billion in stock this year and next. By way of comparison, this is $5-7 billion more than earnings that are expected this year or next. So, Apple will be using over 100% of its earnings to finance stock repurchases
Emerging Asia Pacific: Regional Economic Review - Q1 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
The byword for economic prospects in emerging Asia Pacific economies during the first quarter of 2014 was "optimism". The countries in the region, despite undergoing a torrent of political activity and struggle, pinned their hopes on a revival in global trade. With other avenues of growth such as investment and consumption showing little promise, the emphasis on global trade took on even greater importance.
Positioning Your Portfolio for Rising Rates.
by Team of Forward Management,
Accelerating outflows from bond funds in 2013 highlight investor nervousness over the prospect of rising interest rates. Investors may want to carefully assess the role of fixed-income investments in their portfolios, particularly in light of other types of income-producing vehicles. Upon careful evaluation of their options, investors can make adjustments suitable to their objectives.
New Home Sales Plunge In March
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
New home sales dropped by 14.5% in March and are now down over 13% year-over-year. All four regions are now negative on a year-over-year basis. Meanwhile, median price rose over 11% to a all-time new high of $290K as months' supply spiked to its highest level since October 2011.
First Stock Market Crash on NYSE Reminds Us What Can Happen At A 25x CAPE
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
The panic of 1901 was the first crash on the New York Stock Exchange, brought on by a battle for control of the Northern Pacific Railway. June 1901 marked the peak in valuations for 27 years, only to be eclipsed in the months preceding the September 1929 peak in stock prices. Between June 1901 and December 1920, the 10 year real P/E (Shiller CAPE) fell from 25x to 5x.
Emerging Europe: Regional Economic Review - Q1 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
The International Monetary Funds latest assessment of the global economy pointed out that robust economic recovery in developed countries has significantly reduced the risk of a downturn this year. The Washington-based lender said it sees growth in emerging and developing Europe as a whole at 2.4 percent in 2014, which is expected to accelerate to 2.9 percent next year.
Fixed Income Outlook
by Team of Osterweis Capital Management,
Given that the Fed is likely to complete its asset purchases this year and may raise rates in early 2015, we still feel that Treasuries and investment grade bonds are unattractive. Although yields in the high yield universe are low by historical standards, they still give us a decent cushion against rising rates, especially at the shorter end of the maturity spectrum. Maintaining a shorter duration exposure in high yield and some convertible bonds, as well as a cash reserve, continues to make sense.
US Econ Roundup - Initial Claims Improve To 6 1/2 Year Lows and Philly Fed Accelerates
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
While initial jobless claims were just a bit higher this week than last (304K vs 302K), the widely watched 4-week moving average slid down to 312K which is its lowest level since October 2007. Continuing claims fell to 6-year low as well. Finally, the less looked non-seasonally adjusted initial claims series remains firmly negative on a year-over-year basis. This is important because increases in this series tend to signal higher future levels in the seasonally adjusted series.
High Frequency Trading: Under the Spotlight
by Team of Manning & Napier,
The growing popularity of HFT is troubling; investors, media outlets, and academics alike are expressing concerns. We applaud any and all efforts that help to shine a light on HFT and its potential threat to the fair and orderly functioning of financial markets. While it remains to be seen if action will be taken against HFT, it is encouraging that ongoing research and dialogue on the subject is catching the broader attention of regulatory bodies that are tasked with preserving the levels of transparency and fairness that all market participants benefit from.
Equity Outlook
by Team of Osterweis Capital Management,
Short term, we would not be surprised if the market took a breather after its strong gains last year. Additionally we may see volatility related to news coming out of the Middle East and Russia. But longer term, we remain very optimistic on the outlook for U.S. equities. In addition to the reasons we discussed above we believe U.S. equities are very attractive relative to the alternatives. The great bull market in bonds appears to be over. The great decades of emerging market growth appear to be behind us.
Weekly Market Update
by Team of Castleton Partners,
US Treasury yields registered their largest weekly drop since early February, driven by dovish minutes from the March Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting and equity market weakness. With the technology stocks at the epicenter of the equity storm, major indices fell nearly 3% last week. As Q1 earning season begins in earnest this week, equity performance is very much expected to remain in the headlines. Reaching yields last seen in early March, five year notes were the best performer across the Treasury curve, falling 12 basis points on the week to yield 1.58%.
India: Poised for Change?
by Team of Manning & Napier,
In the current slow growth environment, India?s economy will likely continue to feel the downward pressure being exerted by high interest rates and a more challenging global liquidity environment that has negatively impacted foreign capital flows into the country. Despite the challenging short-to-intermediate-term outlook, there are a number of internal dynamics, such as favorable demographics, improving labor productivity, and the potential for tremendous growth in domestic consumption, which provide the opportunity for more robust growth in the future.
Master Limited Partnerships
Master Limited Partnerships (?MLPs?) are a unique asset class in the investment landscape. Historically, MLPs have been primarily owned by high net worth and retail investors due in part to the tax complexities. However, MLPs have started gaining traction over the past few years among institutional investors as they seek alternative sources of yield in our present low-yield world.
Back-to-Back 1% Down Days?
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
Beginning the year, there had only been five 1% down days over the previous six months. With Friday's decline, the total has edged up to nine 1% down days over the previous six months. If the SP500 were to closes at its current level (1846), this would be the tenth 1% down day in the last six months.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
During the Great Recession, America laid off two million factory workers and factory output fell 20 percent. Before the Great Recession, of course, manufacturing jobs were headed overseas. As we have slowly emerged from the Great Recession, its a little surprising to some that manufacturing has led the way, outpacing overall GDP growth. This year it looks like manufacturing could add 3.5 percent in growth. Is this just a replacement of jobs that were lost during the Great Recession?
Johnson Controls: Back To Consistency?
by Team of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Johnson Controls (JCI) traces its roots back to an interesting bit of history. One hundred and thirty-one years ago, Warren Johnson was a professor in Whitewater, Wisconsin. It was here that he invented and installed the first electric tele-thermoscope ? known today as the thermostat ? in his classrooms. The invention served a dual purpose: it kept his students more comfortable and put an end to the hourly interruptions from the janitor checking the rooms? temperature. Of course we can?t confirm this, but it would be our guess that Professor Warren was a regular student favorite.
Hotchkis & Wiley: Frequently Asked Questions
by Team of Hotchkis & Wiley,
In Hotchkis & Wiley's 2014 1Q Newsletter, Ray Kennedy, Mark Hudoff, and the rest of Hotchkis & Wiley's high yield team examines the high yield market and attempt to answer the questions it they get asked most frequently, or ones they believe to be particularly relevant in the current market environment.
Americas: Regional Economic Review 4Q 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
The outlook for the developed economies in North America remains healthy while the emerging economies of Latin America continue to face headwinds. Though recent data from the U.S. and Canada have indicated moderation in economic activity, most of the slowdown was likely caused by adverse weather conditions in the region.
Market Update
by Team of Castleton Partners,
Last week?s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) produced a more hawkish tone than anticipated, driving interest rates higher and flattening the yield curve in the process. Between the Fed?s summary of economic projections and Chairwoman Janet Yellen?s remarks following the meeting, the FOMC suggested a shorter timeframe for rate hikes than the market had expected.
World Industrial Production Finished 2013 At An All-Time High
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis publishes a monthly report called "World Trade Monitor". This report tries to quantify the seemingly unquantifiable; world industrial production and world trade volume and prices. Either later today or early next week the CPB should come out with the first statistics for 2014. Today, however, we are going to take a look at world industrial production for 2013.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
On average, how much taxable income must you have to pay six figures of income taxes? In order to pay exactly $100,000 in federal income taxes, your 2013 taxable income must equal $376,047 on a married filing jointly basis. Twenty years ago, it took $312,363 to pay that much in taxes. In 2011, the top 10% of US taxpayers paid 68.3% of all federal income tax while in 1980 the top 10% paid 49.3%. It is estimated that for the tax year 2013 the government will receive approximately $3 trillion. (Sources: Tax Foundation; White House; Internal Revenue Service)
Market Update
by Team of Castleton Partners,
With military tensions rising over the Ukraine saga and geopolitical posturing dominating the headlines, Treasury rates rallied across the yield curve last week, with 10 year yields falling 13 basis points to 2.66%. Though Cold War-era rhetoric remains high, there are indications that the threat of military action is becoming less likely. As such, we suspect markets will become more comfortable with the situation and expect it to become less of a focus. Nonetheless, we concede that headline risk remains and the primary influence on the Treasury market this week may well be external.
Global Economic Overview - February 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
Pessimism over the sustainability of global growth this year has subsided as it is now widely acknowledged that softer data from some of the developed countries in recent months were influenced by the severe winter weather.
Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: January 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
Emerging market equity prices corrected in January as investors worried about slower growth in China as well as political and economic turbulence in some the frontier economies such as Argentina and the Ukraine. Markets were also unnerved by the unexpectedly large interest rate hike in Turkey, which failed to prop up the currency.
Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: January 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
Emerging market equity prices corrected in January as investors worried about slower growth in China as well as political and economic turbulence in some the frontier economies such as Argentina and the Ukraine. Markets were also unnerved by the unexpectedly large interest rate hike in Turkey, which failed to prop up the currency.
International Equity Commentary: January 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
International equity markets have started the year on a difficult note, as concerns about the robustness of economic growth in the U.S., Japan and Europe have made investors more cautious. Though the U.S. economy expanded at a faster than expected pace during the last quarter of 2013, recent data reports from the labor market have not been as healthy.
PepsiCo Dividend: Refreshing The Investor World
by Team of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
PepsiCo is presently trading in line with its historical valuations and might be offering a reasonable - albeit not necessarily screaming - opportunity moving forward. However, as always, we recommend that the reader conduct his or her own thorough due diligence.
Emerging Markets Equity Commentary - December 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
Emerging market equity prices saw a modest correction for the second successive month in December, as investors remained cautious about the outlook for some of the emerging economies. Select countries such as Thailand in Asia and Turkey in Europe continue to face difficult political environments, with large demonstrations against the governments. Their currencies have reacted negatively to the latest developments, making investors fearful of a repeat of the volatile market movements seen during the third quarter of 2013.
Global Economic Overview - December 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
The global economic outlook has turned brighter as several major economies are improving. Both business and consumer sentiment have become healthier across most regions, as the policy uncertainties that plagued several countries last year have faded. The U.S. economy is expected to accelerate further in 2014, while Europe and Japan are also likely to see faster growth.
International Equity Commentary - December 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
International equity prices saw marginal gains in December as investors weighed the improved global economic outlook against the reduction in monetary stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Economic trends have become more positive across most regions, helped by the improving business environment and consumer sentiment in the U.S. as well as in Europe. Japan continues to see stronger export gains as demand revives in its major markets and the cheaper yen remain supportive.
Results 1,601–1,650
of 2,793 found.
