Search Results
Results 1,451–1,500
of 2,793 found.
A Point-and-Figure Perspective on Ratings Upgrades
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
Faithful followers will already know that we do not rely on meetings with management or analyst reports in our methodology for finding the world's best knowledge leaders. And, while we have developed a more objective, data-driven process, it is always interesting to at least take a look at how our various tools compare with the consensus from the street.
U.S. Economic Growth Picks Up
by Team of LPL Financial,
We believe the U.S. economy will continue its transition from the slow gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2011 - 2013 to more sustained, broad-based growth. We expect the U.S. economy will expand at a rate of 3% or slightly higher in 2015, which matches the average growth rate over the past 50 years.
Black Friday Special: How Do The Retailers Look?
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
In honor of Black Friday, we thought we would look at how the North American retailers look from a technical perspective using our relative point and figure charts. Once again, our box size is 2.5% relative performance and all charts have four years worth of history.
Weekly Economic Commentary
by Team of Northern Trust,
Someone observed recently that the holidays are starting late this year, as the time between Thanksgiving and Christmas is shorter than usual. You could have fooled me; judging by store displays and TV advertising, the commercial side of the season is already two months old.
Developed Europe: Regional Economic Review - Q3 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
Developed Europe remained bogged down by deflationary conditions all through the third quarter. Annual inflation in the regions 18-member single-currency bloc, the Euro-zone, slipped from 0.4 percent in July to 0.3 percent in September, its lowest level since October 2009.
Where's Waldo Global Treasury Bond Style
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
In case some of our readers aren't familiar with the popular picture book/game series entitled Where's Waldo, here's a quick run down of how it works. Basically, the object is to find an inconspicuously dressed Waldo among a throng of people in endless settings ranging from a sports stadium to the Egyptian pyramids and everything in between. Finding Waldo isn't as easy as it sounds as he tends to blend in quite well with his surroundings.
Middle East/Africa: Regional Economic Review - Q3 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
Despite continuing geopolitical tensions and subdued oil prices, the Middle East and Africa region had a largely positive third quarter. South Africa, the largest economy in this region, saw its labor problems diminish while Egypt reported a string of encouraging data, signaling that it is steadily recovering from a long phase of political and economic turbulence.
International Equity Commentary: October 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
International equity prices saw large price swings during the month of October as fears about slower global growth led to an appreciable decline during the first two weeks. Equity prices recovered subsequently as better than expected U.S. economic data helped allay global growth fears.
Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: October 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
Emerging market equity prices turned volatile during October as concerns about weak global growth and the impending close of bond purchases by the U.S. Federal Reserve unnerved investors. Still, some of the large emerging markets in Asia rebounded strongly during the second half of the month.
Global Economic Overview: October 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
Regional growth trends diverged further during the month of October as data from the U.S. and China were positive, while activity in the Euro-zone remained subdued. The U.S. economy expanded faster than expected during the third quarter, helped by higher government spending.
If German Yields Break To New Lows, European Cyclicals Will Likely Follow
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
European cyclicals continue to be the weakest segment of developed global equity markets, and there doesn't appear to be much sign of that changing. We refer to the extremely strong relationship between German 10 year bond yields and the relative performance of European cyclical sectors.
Japanese Recession and the Referendum on Abenomics
by Team of Northern Trust,
Early this week, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced that he will delay to April 2017 from October 2015 the next phase of his countrys consumption tax hike. In addition, he dissolved the lower house of Parliament and announced that elections will be held on December 14.
Next 12 Month Sales Estimates For MSCI North America Lowest Since 2009
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
Last week we looked at how sales growth estimates for the next fiscal year are now negative for five of the 10 MSCI World Index sectors. Today, we are again looking at estimates but this time from a forward 12-month perspective. Sales for the MSCI World Index are only expected to grow by 3% over the next 12 months according to estimates (blue line below). This is about 2% lower than expected in July. EPS for the MSCI World Index are expected to grow by 9% over the next 12 months which is about 1.5% lower than expected in July.
High-Yield Bonds & Oil Prices
by Team of LPL Financial,
The decline in oil prices and its impact on the high-yield market has been cited as a concern for investors. This week we stay on the topic of high-yield bonds and take a closer look at the potential impact of oil prices on the high-yield bond market and whether recent concerns are justified.
Municipal Market Perspectives
by Team of SMC Fixed Income Management,
The most surprising and impressive asset class performance has been generated by long-term municipal bonds. Most pundits were calling for negative market performance again this year following the sharp 2013 sell-off; no one we know of (ourselves included) foresaw the stellar returns achieved through the years first ten months.
Knowing What You Can't Know, Knowing What You Don't Know, and Staying Disciplined in Your Investment
by Team of Litman Gregory,
In our investment analysis and decision-making, we try to focus on what is knowable with a reasonable degree of certainty or within a reasonable range of outcomes. We also recognize the importance of staying within our circle of competency, which means not investing in things we don't fully understand. And while our investment discipline requires us to adapt and change our views if the facts and circumstances change, it also protects us against getting swept up in the short-term noise and emotions of the markets.
When Volatility Rises, So Have Active Management Relative Results
by Team of The Royce Funds,
For many investors, volatility is often synonymous with risk. We as value investors (and risk managers), on the other hand, have always viewed volatility as a crucial component of active stock selection. In our latest Royce Research piece, we explore the relationship between low- and high-volatility environments and the relative performance of active managers versus their respective benchmarks during these periods. This deep dive is especially important in a market that has recently seen more volatility and its largest correction in almost three years.
Global Economic Overview: September 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
Global economic growth concerns resurfaced during the month of September, as data from the Euro-zone suggested that select large counties yet again face recession. Even Germany, the bulwark that shielded the common currency area during the fiscal crisis, has slowed down as subdued external demand has taken a toll on exports.
Americas: Regional Economic Review - Q3 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
The clear divergence in economic growth trends between the developed economies in North America and Latin America widened during the third quarter. The U.S. is now the fastest growing developed country in the world, and has lifted the outlook for Canada and Mexico, two of its major trading partners in the region.
International Equity Commentary: September 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
International equity prices corrected in September as investors became concerned about slower global growth and the continued withdrawal of monetary stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Stronger than expected U.S. growth could support the global economy in the coming quarters, but has made investors anxious of early interest rate hikes. The Euro-zone economic recovery is faltering yet again as growth has slipped in most large countries.
Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: September 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
Emerging market equity prices corrected in September on concerns about weaker global growth even as the U.S. Federal Reserve is set to wind down its bond purchases. Signs of yet another downturn in the Euro-zone economy are likely to hurt the export outlook for the major emerging countries that had seen a modest improvement in exports in recent months.
Weekly Economic Commentary
by Team of Northern Trust,
Stress testing is performed in a number of arenas. Tools and parts are stressed to ensure that they will stand up to extreme conditions. Medical patients are stressed to detect heart disease. Computer systems are stressed to ensure that they can operate stably at peak times.
Financial Markets Review Third Quarter 2014
Similar to earlier this year, the third quarter featured further evidence of a multi-speed economic recovery across the globe. Central banks reacted in a less-than-coordinated fashion compared to years prior, with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) loosening monetary policy while the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) retained more of its status quo as detailed further here.
On Top of the Market
The third quarters seventh straight gain for the S&P 500 did not come easy. Investors wrestled with geopolitical turmoil in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the eventual end of the Federal Reserves (the Fed) bond buying program. U.S. small-cap stocks were volatile and fell into negative territory, year-to-date.
Realized Volatility is Picking Up, but Remains Far From Extremes
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
After an extended period of extremely muted volatility in virtually every major asset class, volatility is finally starting to pick up, as it was always likely to do. A number of our volatility measures such as our equity, FX, bond and commodity volatility have turned a corner recently and have moved up off of in some cases generational lows.
When Will Rates Potentially Rise?
by Team of Osterweis Capital Management,
When 2014 started, some Wall Street strategists predicted a continuing rise in interest rates as U.S. economic growth accelerated and the Federal Reserve (the Fed) reduced its monthly stimulus. Instead, it has been a one-way street in government bond markets as they continued to deliver low yields at higher prices. In August, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Note fell to 2.3%, back down to June 2013 levels.
Quarterly Review and Outlook
The U.S. economy continues to lose momentum despite the Federal Reserves use of conventional techniques and numerous experimental measures to spur growth. In the first half of the year, real GDP grew at only a 1.2% annual rate while real per capita GDP increased by a minimal 0.3% annual rate. Such increases are insufficient to raise the standard of living, which, as measured by real median household income, stands at the same level as it did seventeen years ago
The US Mortgage Application Market Finally Wakes Up
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
All summer long we talked about how mortgage applications were down and couldn't get off the mat. That looks to finally be changing, at least from a refinancing point of view over the past couple of weeks. In the last two weeks the mortgage application index has increased from the 350 to 413 and has broke out of the range it has been in all year.
October has Been a Tough Month for Stock Picking
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
The percent of stocks with positive performance for the month of October through last Friday stands at a paltry 15%. Granted, as of last Friday there were ten trading days left in the month, but 15% would the lowest reading since May of 2012 and September of 2011 before that.
Stock Valuations Remain Near Record High Including in Europe and EM
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
Even as stock prices have corrected in recent weeks with only 36% of stocks having positive performance over the last 200 days and the average stock 19% from its one year high, we are reminded that stock valuations are still stretched pretty much everywhere.
Disruptive Innovation: The New Normal
by Team of Manning & Napier,
The current economic and market environment is not one in which a rising tide of economic growth will lift all ships; actually, its quite the opposite. As businesses compete, the winners will largely succeed at the expense of the losers. Consider recent examples such as Nokia and BlackBerry; both companies once widely recognized as dominating their respective markets, only to be disrupted by innovative competitors.
Who Will Blink First?
While tax-exempt yields did follow Treasuries higher during September, the snap-back has been fast and significant; yields have recently established new twelve-month lows. Meanwhile, investors appear to be repositioning from equity and other asset classes into fixed income. The move to bonds includes municipal securities, as evidenced by strong flows into tax-exempt funds, which is forcing cash-laden portfolio managers to buy at the highest prices of the year.
Are Hedge Funds the Great Diversifier?
by Team of Milliman FRM,
The California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS) announced on September 15th that it would divest its entire $4.5 billion hedge fund investment. With a market value of $298 billion, a move by Calpers may be a bellwether for the industry. The decision comes at a time when many pensions are reconsidering hedge fund investments as a risk management tool.
Putting the Pieces Together: An In Depth Chart Review of Global Financial Markets
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
One of our favorite grounding exercises is to peruse our chart library and review what has happened in the global financial markets so we can opine about what those prices and patterns are telling us about the world. We'll save the opining for another time, so we present the following charts with little commentary.
Global asset allocation outlook
Recent market performance, particularly in September, has been negative across a widespread array of asset classes as we have seen the U.S. dollar exchange rate rise with increasing intensity in recent months. The worst returns, not coincidentally, were delivered by the very assets that have shown historically high sensitivity to dollar strength. This disruption to currency stability in general, and the particular importance of a rise in exchange value for the worlds reserve currency, represents an important change in capital market conditions.
What PIMCO Management Changes Mean for Investors
by Team of Charles Schwab,
Bill Gross resigned from his role as PIMCOs Chief Investment Officer to join Janus Capital. The PIMCO funds on the current edition of Schwabs Mutual Fund OneSource Select ListTM are not managed by Gross. There are no PIMCO ETFs currently on Schwabs ETF Select ListTM. A list of funds formerly managed or co-managed by Gross is available below.
The Largest Stocks Are Carrying The MSCI World Index
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
The 50 largest stocks in the MSCI World Index account for roughly 28% of the total market cap of the MSCI World Index. So for a market-cap weighted index such as the MSCI World, the movement of the largest 50 stocks (out of 1615 total stocks) can have an outsized effect on the performance of the index as a whole at certain times.
Weekly Market Update
by Team of Castleton Partners,
In a week defined by increased rate volatility, Treasury yields ended mixed, as the yield curve continued to flatten. Registering its first monthly decline in over a year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) continued to support a benign inflationary environment, further supporting long-dated instruments. With global inflation subdued, central banks around the world remain more concerned about lapsing back into recession than about frothy risk markets and potential bubbles.
Keeping Up With Global Relative Performance Trends
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
The MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) is a comprised of two basic pieces: the MSCI World (Developed) Index, which contains about 1,600 companies and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which contains about 850 companies. The MSCI ACWI is a good global reference point for measuring relative performance trends.
Destroying the Dollar a Penny at a Time
Efforts are once again underway to discontinue the US penny due to the rising cost of zinc. But it is not zinc that is becoming more precious, but rather the dollar that is losing value relative to all commodities. A comparison of product prices over time shows that a dollar just isnt what it used to be.
More than Half of EM Stocks are Down At Least 10% From Their High
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is down about 4% from its recent high, but the average stock has fared much worse. By our count more than than 50% of EM stocks are down at least 10% from their 200-day high. The trend of more stocks being down at least 10% from their recent high can be seen in all regions, but is clearly most prevalent in Latin America, where the number has increased from 22% to 60% in a week.
Results 1,451–1,500
of 2,793 found.
