As speculation builds around a Warsh-led Federal Reserve, the prospect of eliminating the ‘dot plot’ could mark a major shift in forward guidance—potentially increasing rate volatility and reshaping how fixed income markets price policy risk.

As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to pause their rate cuts at the January meeting, keeping the fed funds trading range at 3.50%–3.75%. For those keeping track, the Fed had lowered ‘the funds rate’ by 75 basis points (bps) during the final three FOMC meetings of 2025.

As we get ready to close out 2025, one stand-out trend in the U.S. Treasury (UST) market has been the steepening of the yield curve. The question now is whether this trend will continue into 2026, and if it does, how should investors position their bond portfolios?

While only two official dissenters opposed the December rate cut, dot-plot projections reveal that six Fed members, including four “silent dissenters,” were against easing, signaling deeper division within the Fed than headlines suggest.

With a third consecutive rate cut bringing the Fed Funds range to 3.50%–3.75%, the Fed may pause for now as it reassesses the effectiveness of its “risk management” approach amid mixed economic signals.