As is our custom, we conclude the year by reflecting on the 10 most-read investment and planning articles over the past 12 months. Tomorrow, we will highlight the 10 most-read practice management articles.
In decreasing order, based on the number of unique readers, those are:
- Social Security is Not a Retirement Safety Net
by Rick Kahler, 5/22/23
Social Security has always been born from political rather than financial necessity. The initial retirement age was not based on life expectancy but rather on the political and social realities of the time.
- Managing Taxes in Retirement using the Effective Marginal Tax Rate
by Wade Pfau, Joe Elsasser, 11/13/23
Research on tax-efficient retirement distribution strategies aims to sequence withdrawals from taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-exempt accounts to maximize after-tax spending. That can be either in terms of meeting an after-tax spending goal for as long as possible or preserving the most after-tax legacy after meeting spending needs over a specified timeframe.
- Buffett was Right About Sentiment and the VIX as Predictors of Returns
by Larry Swedroe, 9/18/23
Warren Buffett has advised investors to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful. New research confirms Buffett’s admonition.
- Gundlach: We Could Have the Worst Default Cycle Ever
by Robert Huebscher, 3/8/23
High-yield investors beware. Junk bonds that were financed at low, fixed rates will eventually mature and, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, weak issuers that cannot refinance at higher rates will default.
- Are Fixed Indexed Annuities More Efficient Than Bonds?
by Allan Roth, 8/14/23
When adjusting for more realistic assumptions and considering the fact that the insurance company can change return caps and that inflation is both an unknown and deep risk, an FIA, along with most annuities, is not on the efficient frontier in either accumulation or decumulation phases.
- Larry Summers – Get out of U.S. Equities
by Robert Huebscher, 4/26/23
“Be careful in the equity markets,” warned Larry Summers. The bond market is predicting a recession but, he said, the equity market has not priced that in.
- Challenging Morningstar’s Safe Withdrawal Rates
by Allan Roth, 1/16/23
Morningstar’s latest research showed higher safe spending rates across all asset allocations over all time horizons. I don’t agree with those results.
- The Dilemma That Isn’t: Bonds versus Bond Funds
by Laurence B. Siegel, 3/27/23
Should investors build their own portfolios of bonds, or buy shares of bond funds? Is there an economic difference or just one of appearance? Are directly held bonds safer because they mature, and you get your money back? How should one decide?
- Gundlach: There Will be a Recession in the First Half of 2024
by Robert Huebscher, 9/15/23
The consensus is wrong, and the Fed has not engineered a “soft landing.” A recession is all but certain in the first half of next year, according to Jeffrey Gundlach.
- The Dangers of Monte Carlo Simulations
by Massimo Young, Wade Pfau, 1/10/23
Probability-based retirement income strategies are highly sensitive to the capital market assumptions used in Monte Carlo analysis. Seemingly small changes in those assumptions can mean the difference between projecting a comfortable lifestyle and financial ruin.
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