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Results 701–750
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The Art of Capital Flight
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
For emerging-market investors, art has become a critical tool for moving and hiding wealth, which has been a major factor in the spectacular rise in auction prices of the last several years. So, with emerging-market economies from Russia to Brazil mired in recession, and China slowing rapidly, is the art bubble about to burst?
Inflation, the Fed, and the Big Picture
by Carmen Reinhart of Project Syndicate,
Inflation was the theme of this year’s international conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. But, while policymakers are right to prepare for future risks to price stability, they did not place these concerns in the context of recent inflation developments at the global level – or within historical perspective.
Cheap Oil and Global Growth
The standard explanation is weak Chinese demand, with the oil-price collapse widely regarded as a portent of recession, either in China or for the entire global economy. But this is almost certainly wrong: On all recent occasions when the oil price was halved, faster global growth followed.
A Financial Early-Warning System
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
Recent market volatility – in emerging and developed economies alike – is showing once again how badly ratings agencies and investors can err in assessing countries’ economic and financial vulnerabilities. More than ever, the world needs an early-warning system for financial tsunamis.
China’s Complexity Problem
by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate,
There are many moving parts – economic, social, and geopolitical – in China’s daunting transition to what its leaders call a moderately well-off society, and the ultimate challenge may lie in managing the exceedingly complex interplay among them. Is China’s leadership up to the task, or has it bitten off more than it can chew?
America in the Way
by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate,
Today, developing countries and emerging markets say to the US and others: If you will not keep your promises on development aid, at least get out of the way and let us create an international economic architecture that works for the poor. Not surprisingly, the US is doing whatever it can to thwart such efforts.
A New Deal for Debt Overhangs?
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
The IMF’s acknowledgement that Greece’s debt is unsustainable could prove to be a watershed moment for the global financial system. Clearly, heterodox policies to deal with high debt burdens need to be taken more seriously, even in some advanced countries.
Are US Middle-Class Incomes Really Stagnating?
The challenge of raising the incomes of middle-class families has emerged as an important focus of the unfolding US presidential election campaign. Unfortunately, the political debate is distorted by misleading statistics that grossly understate how well middle-income families have actually done over the past few decades.
Why the Greek Deal Will Work
Most economists and political commentators believe that the latest Greek bailout was little more than an analgesic. It will dull the pain for a while, but the euro’s problems will metastasize, with a dismal prognosis for the single currency and perhaps the EU as a whole. But the conventional wisdom is likely to be proved wrong.
The Mirage of the Financial Singularity
by Robert Shiller of Project Syndicate,
Many economists and financial-market observers seem to believe that we are approaching the point when even Warren Buffett would be better off leaving all investment decisions to a computer program. How, then, would they explain the recent plunge in China's stock market?
Why the Greek Bailout Failed
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
As the crisis in Greek demonstrates, imposing structural reforms from outside a country is unlikely to succeed without the willingness of a capable government. If a bailout program requires a wholesale change in a country’s economic model, moving swiftly to write down outstanding debts may be the more sensible option.
Emerging Markets After the Fed Hikes Rates
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
The prospect that the US Federal Reserve will start exiting zero policy rates later this year has fueled growing fear of volatility in emerging economies’ currency, bond, and stock markets. But, with a few exceptions lacking systemic importance, widespread distress and crises need not occur.
Europe’s Attack on Greek Democracy
by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate,
The rising crescendo of bickering and acrimony within Europe might seem to outsiders to be the inevitable result of the bitter endgame playing out between Greece and its creditors. In fact, European leaders are finally beginning to reveal the true nature of the ongoing debt dispute, and the answer is not pleasant.
Shelter from the Storm in Europe
To secure a prosperous future, Europe must confront three distinct challenges: the Greek crisis, Russia’s incursion in Ukraine, and the rise of populist political parties. While Europe could address each of these challenges individually with relatively little risk, all three must be addressed simultaneously.
America, China, and the Productivity Paradox
by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate,
As American and Chinese leaders meet for their annual Strategic Dialogue, they need not look far to find a shared challenge. Both are now victims of the “productivity paradox”: huge investments in information technology and Internet-enabled goods and services have been accompanied by slower growth in output per worker.
A Rule of Law for Sovereign Debt
by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate,
To avoid economic and political instability, governments sometimes need to restructure their debts. But, in the absence of an international rule of law for doing so, the world pays a higher price than it should: a poorly functioning debt market, marked by unnecessary strife and costly delays in addressing problems when they arise.
The Right Food Fight
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
The question of the extent to which governments should regulate or tax addictive behavior has long framed public debate about alcohol, tobacco, gambling, and other goods and services. And now, in the US – arguably the mother of global consumer culture – the debate has turned toward the fight against the epidemic of childhood obesity.
The Quiet Financial Revolution Begins
Steadily and indisputably, the financial services industry – with which we all interact, whether as borrowers, savers, investors, or regulators – has embarked on a multiyear transformation. This process, slow at first, has been driven by the combined impact of two sets of factors.
Europe’s Last Act?
by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate,
Greece has met its creditors’ demands far more than halfway. Yet Germany and Greece’s other creditors continue to demand that the country sign on to a program that has proven to be a failure, and that few economists ever thought could, would, or should be implemented.
The Liquidity Time Bomb
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
Advanced countries’ central banks have managed to keep interest rates low, reduce the volatility of bond markets, and lift many asset prices. But a series of recent shocks suggests that macro liquidity has become linked with severe market illiquidity.
The Currency Manipulation Charade
by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate,
The US Senate narrowly defeated a “currency manipulation” amendment to a bill giving President Barack Obama so-called “fast-track” authority to negotiate the controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. But the issue could return as the debate shifts to the House of Representatives.
The Economic Consequences of Mr. Osborne
by Niall Ferguson of Project Syndicate,
In the wake of the 2010 British election, Keynesians like Robert Skidelsky predicted that Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne was gravely wrong in seeking to reduce the budget deficit. It turns out that it is the Keynesians who were mistaken, with the main question being why they refuse to admit it.
Inspiring Economic Growth
by Robert Shiller of Project Syndicate,
In his First Inaugural Address, during the depths of the Great Depression, US President Franklin Delano Roosevelt famously told Americans that, “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” The same could be said today, seven years after the 2008 global financial crisis, about the world economy’s remaining weak spots.
Western Politics’ Locust Years
Many mainstream political parties in the West are so busy playing defense that they are forgoing the strategic thinking needed to re-energize growth models, anchor financial stability, and ensure that technological innovation enables broad-based prosperity. As a result, Western economies may be undermining their future potential.
Inequality, Immigration, and Hypocrisy
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
Europe’s migration crisis exposes a fundamental flaw, if not towering hypocrisy, in the ongoing debate about economic inequality. Wouldn’t a true progressive support equal opportunity for all people on the planet, rather than just for those of us lucky enough to have been born and raised in rich countries?
The Dollar Joins the Currency Wars
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
Until recently, US policymakers were not overly concerned about the dollar’s strength; America’s growth prospects were stronger than in Europe and Japan. But things look different today, and officials' exchange-rate jitters are becoming increasingly pronounced.
Asia’s Multilateralism
by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate,
In March, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Italy joined more than 30 other countries as founding members of the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which will do what existing institutional arrangements cannot: help Asia meet its massive infrastructure needs. So why has the US sought to undermine the effort?
Creative Self-Disruption
Companies like Uber, Apple, and Airbnb have succeeded by exploiting a fundamental trend affecting nearly all industries: individual empowerment through the Internet, app technology, digitalization, and social media. If traditional firms hope to remain competitive, they must follow suit.
Will China’s Infrastructure Bank Work?
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
With China's creation of the new $50 billion Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, most of the debate has centered on the futile US effort to discourage other advanced economies from joining. Bu the real question is why multilateral development lending has so often failed, and what might be done to make it work better.
China’s New Normal and America’s Old Habits
by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate,
China is generating a lot of confusion nowadays, both at home, where officials now tout the economy’s “new normal” but are unclear about what it is, and abroad, where the US is embracing “containment” of China’s rise. On both counts, the disconnects are striking, adding a new dimension of risk to a fragile world.
Are Equities Overvalued?
by Michael Spence of Project Syndicate,
Since the global economic crisis, sharp divergences in economic performance have contributed to significant stock-market volatility. Now, stocks are reaching relatively high levels by conventional measures – and it is difficult to discern precisely why.
The Messy Politics of Economic Divergence
The world is increasingly characterized by divergence – in economic performance, monetary policy, and thus in financial markets. Though there is a broad consensus on what must be done to rebalance the global economy, political leaders remain unwilling to fulfill their economic-governance responsibilities.
How Scary Is the Bond Market?
by Robert Shiller of Project Syndicate,
With the bond market appearing ripe for a dramatic correction, many are wondering whether a crash could drag down markets for other long-term assets, such as housing and equities. But when an event has never occurred, it cannot be predicted with any semblance of confidence.
The Stock-Bond Disconnect
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
How should one understand the disconnect between the new highs reached by global equity indices and the new depths plumbed by real interest rates worldwide? Several competing explanations attempt to reconcile these trends, and getting it right is essential for calibrating monetary and fiscal policy appropriately.
A Fair Hearing for Sovereign Debt
Last July, when US federal judge Thomas Griesa ruled that Argentina had to repay in full the "vulture" funds that had bought its sovereign debt at rock-bottom prices, the decision reverberated far and wide, affecting bonds issued in a variety of jurisdictions. Do US court rulings really apply to contracts executed in other countries?
The Negative Way to Growth?
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
Monetary policy has become increasingly unconventional in the last six years, with central banks implementing zero-interest-rate policies, quantitative easing, credit easing, forward guidance, and unlimited exchange-rate intervention. But now we have come to the most unconventional policy tool of them all: negative nominal interest rates.
Obama Steps Up
by Simon Johnson of Project Syndicate,
For the past six years, Barack Obama's administration has, more often than not, sided with the interests of big banks on financial-sector policy. But this week, announcing a new proposal to prevent conflicts of interest in financial advising, Obama seemed to turn an important corner.
A Greek Morality Tale
When the euro crisis began a half-decade ago, Keynesian economists predicted that the austerity imposed on Greece and the other crisis countries would fail. Now that it has, what is needed is not structural reform in Greece so much as a fundamental reform of the eurozone's design and policy frameworks.
What Is Plan B for Greece?
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
Though the far-left Syriza party’s recent election victory has sent Greek equities and bonds plummeting, there is little sign of contagion to other distressed countries on the eurozone periphery. The question is how long this relative calm will prevail.
An Unconventional Truth
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
To be effective, monetary stimulus must be accompanied by temporary fiscal stimulus, which is now lacking in all major economies. That is why, given persistent insufficient aggregate demand, unconventional monetary policies will remain a central feature of the macroeconomic landscape.
Wall Street for President?
by Simon Johnson of Project Syndicate,
America's Democratic Party – including President Barack Obama – is apparently of two minds on the extent to which it should defend its own financial legislation from attack by the country's powerful megabanks. It can have the 2010 Dodd-Frank reforms, or it can have Wall Street's campaign contributions, but it cannot have both.
The Lemmings of QE
by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate,
Predictably, the European Central Bank has joined the world?s other major monetary authorities in the greatest experiment in the history of central banking: large-scale quantitative easing. But careful analysis of QE's impact so far should give the ECB pause.
Results 701–750
of 1,033 found.
