We talked yesterday about the possibility of another government shutdown and the effect that could have on both business and consumer confidence. That shutdown looks to be something we will avoid. But now there is another potential confidence buster ahead being talked up in the media: an earnings recession.

After a terrible fourth quarter in the financial markets, we had a sizable bounce in January. Markets were up significantly, both here in the U.S. and around the world, and sentiment seemed to change markedly from pessimism to a new optimism. The question going forward is whether things have really changed that much.

Well, as expected, the Fed did not raise rates yesterday. Further, it came out with what was perceived as a much more dovish statement than anticipated, essentially declaring a pause in rate increases. In response, markets cheered.

With the brutally cold weather locking down large parts of the country, the hope today is that the Fed will heat up the markets by both holding rates steady (as expected) and dialing back the liquidation of its balance sheet.

Right now, the base case remains positive. With earnings expected to keep rising and with valuations low per recent history, continued appreciation seems reasonable. Add in the real possibility that many of the issues currently weighing on the market will be resolved, and the positive scenario looks even more likely.

I wrote about the big-picture effects of the government shutdown the other day, which are likely to be longer term. As it continues, though, the shorter-term effects continue to pile up. As such, it is time to take a look at what the shutdown means now and over the next month or so.

As we approach year-end, we find ourselves in an unfamiliar place. Despite mounting worries over the past couple of years about politics and other issues, the market and economy continued to grow. Through the first half of 2018, the markets were moving higher, despite a few breakdowns, and economic growth was accelerating.

Yesterday morning, the major headline was the downward revision in Apple’s revenue projection—the first time this has happened in well over a decade—on lower sales in China. The reaction to this news was apocalyptic, with markets around the world selling off.

Brad McMillan, Commonwealth’s CIO, provides his 2019 market outlook. As we approach the new year, hiring is strong and both business and consumer confidence remain high. With these solid fundamentals, the financial markets are likely to respond. Earnings should go up, so we should expect to see rising stock prices as well. Of course, there are always worries, including political concerns in the U.S. We may also see slowing growth. All in all, the year ahead looks to be much like earlier years in the cycle. But the name of the game in 2019? Solid fundamentals and, very likely, solid markets.

Yesterday, there is no doubt that markets were expecting a bailout from the Fed—and threw a tantrum when they didn’t get it.

As we approach year-end, we find ourselves in an unfamiliar place. Despite mounting worries over the past couple of years about politics and other issues, the market and economy continued to grow. Through the first half of 2018, the markets were moving higher, despite a few breakdowns, and economic growth was accelerating.

Yesterday’s market drop reversed all of Monday’s gain and then some, reportedly on growing doubts regarding the exact terms of the trade war truce announced by President Trump. That might be the case, but I suspect the headlines pointing out that part of the yield curve had inverted played a bigger role in the decline.

Some advisors today are rushing to sell their practices after very little forethought, and they could be leaving money on the table. If you want to get what your practice is worth, focus on four key tenets—business, management, financial, and market—to demonstrate your value to potential buyers.

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for November? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

Growing your business through practice acquisition is a good goal, but it's a long-term strategy that can take years to accomplish. How can you meet your growth objectives in the meantime? By focusing on these client-facing activities that are proven revenue drivers.

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for October? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

Yesterday was a bad day in the market. The Dow was down more than 800 points (800 points!), and the S&P was down almost 100 points (100 points!). Surely, this is the beginning of the end.

The third quarter looks like another good one, at least here in the U.S. Despite ongoing turmoil—both political (with the Kavanaugh confirmation battle) and economic (with the rising trade conflict and tariffs)—markets rose steadily, reaching new highs. Markets abroad were not as positive, with emerging markets down and developed markets generally flat.

There has been much discussion recently about how the great financial crisis kicked off 10 years ago this week. We have retrospective interviews with participants, updates on how people fared during and after the crisis, and all of the typical media storytelling.

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for September? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

As Turkey’s crisis rumbles on, investors are on the watch for signs of contagion. Emerging markets in general are getting hit, so contagion remains a possibility. Still, there are reasons to believe the crisis will burn out in Turkey itself.

To end the week, I have a couple of quick takes on some hot topics from the financial news. Let’s start with inflation.

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for August? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

As we begin August, let’s take a look back at the markets in July, plus what to expect in the month ahead.

Coming off of a strong year for the economy and markets, we had high hopes for 2018, but the first half of the year didn’t play out as planned. Between the stock market pullback early in the year; the slowdown in economic growth; and rising risks, largely in trade, expectations softened. As we hit the midway point for 2018, though, it looks as if those initial hopes might be more realistic than they seemed even a month ago.

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for July? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

2017 was a great year for the economy and financial markets, and we started 2018 with high hopes for even faster growth and continued market gains. But between the stock market pullback early in the year; the slowdown in economic growth; and the rising political risks in Asia, with North Korea, and in Europe, with Britain and Italy, expectations softened. Perhaps 2017 was the end of the cycle after all.

One of the big pieces of news in the financial world today focuses on General Electric (GE). The iconic American conglomerate has been removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and its stock will no longer be included when the index is calculated. It will be replaced by the drugstore chain Walgreens.

Much of the economic data suggests that the slowdown in the first quarter is passing—this morning’s personal spending report is a good example. But, as always, what matters most for the economy is jobs.

First, there was “Grexit,” which was the name given to the possibility that Greece would leave the eurozone. Then, there was “Brexit,” the plan for the U.K.’s exit from the European Union, which is actually happening (at least potentially). Now, we have “Italeave,” which I think sounds better than the other contender, “Italexit.” So what’s going on with Italy?

We closed yesterday’s post on whether markets are efficient with the conclusion that it could be possible to beat the market. But, to do so, we would need either better information or to view things differently—specifically referencing time horizons as one way to do that. Let’s start with a couple of areas where better information is a real possibility. Then, we’ll take a deeper look at the second idea, which is both more subtle and more interesting.

Oil has been in the news quite a bit recently. Prices have risen to multiyear highs, and the recent decision by the U.S. to reimpose sanctions on Iran has rattled markets even further. We know that oil prices are a key risk indicator for the economy, but is it time to start worrying? Plus, what do higher oil prices mean—if anything—for the financial markets?

As we start moving further into May, I think it’s a good time to take a look back at April’s economic news, plus what to expect in the month ahead.

As we move away from the financial crisis and as policies normalize, it is a good time to take a look at what the removal of those policies might mean. After all, many of the actions taken in the aftermath of the crisis were explicitly designed to do certain things. If those actions were successful, then presumably their reversal would have the opposite effect.

Yesterday, we had another breakdown in the stock market. Major indices dropped for the third day out of four, and they were down this morning. Once again, we are getting close to the long-term trend line, the 200-day moving average, which is where I personally start to pay attention.

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for April? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

The first quarter of 2018 saw the end of the bull market. Not in stocks necessarily, as the upward trend remains intact, but certainly of the bull market in confidence. January was a strong month, but then the world changed. Markets dropped in early February, only to bounce and then drop again in March. Let’s review why things changed in Q1, plus what we might expect in Q2.

I consider housing to be one of the key drivers of the economy. This is true from a fundamental basis—with housing driving construction and mortgage finance, which are significant parts of the economy, plus all sorts of indirect spending such as furniture.