It seems to be the end of the Great Moderation Era for the U.S. economy. The Great Moderation Era—which marked most of the two decades leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic—is drifting away into what we call the new Temperamental Era.

A hawkish pivot by the Federal Reserve and resilient U.S. growth could keep the dollar strong, but its gains could be limited by any narrowing of the U.S. interest rate advantage.

The Fed's recent shift into a more hawkish mode creates concern about banking profits later this year, but second-quarter results are seen strong thanks to IPOs, mergers.

The Great Moderation has given way to a more volatile era, where inflation shocks and market dispersion favor flexibility and diversification.

Congress is in recess from June 30 through July 13 for the annual July 4 break, so it's relatively quiet in the nation's capital. But there is still plenty worth paying attention to.

During this time of year, we like to take stock of what happened in the first half of the year and compare it with the expectations we had at the beginning of the year when we published our full-year outlooks.

The Senate passed $70 billion immigration enforcement funding bill, Capitol Hill struggles to find consensus on how to regulate AI, and the Trump Accounts app is live.

Equity markets should remain supported by strong earnings and capital investment trends through 2026, but market concentration and macro risks leave less room for error.

Our broad message for the second half of 2026 is this: Income still matters, but investors should be selective. Despite the recent rise in Treasury yields, we suggest investors favor a below-benchmark average duration with their bond holdings, favoring short- and intermediate-term maturities.

Learn what's in store for the remainder of 2026 and the challenges that lie ahead in our mid-year outlook for U.S. stocks and the economy.

Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as 17th Federal Reserve chair on May 22. Warsh is likely to build consensus at the Fed rather than push for aggressive action to cut rates.

The "four horsemen" of the labor market are the unemployment rate, hiring rate, layoff rate, and vacancy rate. Analyzing them together may sharpen investors' read on the economy.

As Kevin Warsh takes over as Federal Reserve chair with his own goals, he may face challenges even beyond rate policy, from inflation to independence to a bulbous balance sheet.

First quarter 2026 earnings were stronger than expected and we think that there might be continued strength in the second quarter, unless there is a major macro shift.

Yields for preferred securities have generally risen more than corporate bond and long-term Treasury yields over the past few months, making them more attractive to investors.

Kevin Warsh set to be confirmed as the next Fed chair, Senate committee meets to consider the CLARITY Act, President Trump heads to China, and the gerrymandering wars heat up.

Emerging market stocks have rebounded to new highs following their correction at the onset of the Iran war. The recent rally has been concentrated around AI. Can this continue?

Though the U.S. drills far more oil than in the past and relies less on supplies from the war-torn Persian Gulf, U.S. consumers see there's no escaping global price realities.

S&P 500 first quarter 2026 earnings are tracking at nearly 28% year-over-year, with rising profit margins suggesting the strong run could persist.

As widely expected amid rising oil, rates will remain 3.5% to 3.75%. However, four policymakers dissented. And Fed Chair Powell will stay as governor after his chairmanship ends.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, can help buffer a portfolio against inflation. However, it's important to understand their unique characteristics and complex nature.

The Department of Justice drops probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh's confirmation moves forward, and Department of Homeland Security funding is back in the spotlight.

Higher oil prices have both positive and negative effects on the municipal bond market. Investors may want to evaluate their concentration risk.

Iran war-related headlines continue to cause volatility in the markets and oil prices to rise, but our experts remind readers that uncertain times might also present opportunities.

Rising oil prices and the historically inflationary aspects of war have changed expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy and have pulled Treasury yields higher.

There's a fight over war funding looming in Congress after a return from the Easter break, and uncertainty around the timing of the Fed chair confirmation hearing remains.

While infrastructure companies are not immune to a potential economic slowdown, they may provide a longer-term investment opportunity amid an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop.

Gambling is rising in popularity, blurring lines between betting vs. investing. Misunderstanding the key differences can endanger financial security.

Volatility is a trader's bread and butter: Without it, profits are harder to come by. However, when volatility remains elevated for an extended period, it could be the sign of a more deeply rooted market shift.

Department of Homeland Security shutdown continues, and Congress considers addressing growing concern over prediction markets.

Bitcoin is now less volatile than some Magnificent 7 stocks, but it's still capable of steep, prolonged declines.

Many investors think about getting out of the stock market when it gets bumpy. But history shows that staying invested over the long term has resulted in positive gains.

A properly functioning Strait of Hormuz holds the keys to clarity around the growth, inflation, and market shock that has stemmed from the war in the Middle East.

The federal funds rate will remain 3.5% to 3.75%. The 'dot plot' still projects a single rate cut this year, and the Fed sees slightly stronger economic growth and inflation.

Investigation of Federal Reserve chair hits an obstacle, while the Department of Homeland Security remains shut down amid funding standoff.

Iran-related geopolitical risk has boosted stock volatility, especially in sectors like Energy. Uncertainty remains high and there are a range of scenarios for how this conflict could be resolved and how it might affect economic conditions and markets.

The worsening energy shock from the Iran War has raised risks of a more severe crisis. It may resolve quickly, but the longer it persists, the larger the possible economic damage. Asia and Europe are most vulnerable.

Volatility spiked as investors questioned the Federal Reserve's next move, adding to existing concerns about private credit markets. Here's why investors shouldn't overreact.

If tensions de-escalate soon, there could be relatively little impact on international markets. However, risks will rise if global energy supplies face a prolonged disruption.

Notwithstanding developments in the Iran conflict, there are important leadership shifts still at play within the equity market, which emphasize the importance of diversification.

Recessions are a regular part of the economic cycle, which means planning ahead is essential. You can't control the economy, but you can take steps to help protect your savings, manage debt, and keep your goals on track. Here are some smart ways to prepare when the economy shifts.

U.S. job creation has been weak despite resilient gross domestic product growth. Here's what may be going on.

In a 6-3 decision, the highest court in the U.S. ruled that President Trump lacks the legal authority to impose sweeping tariffs. But the administration has a Plan B in place.

Municipal bonds have posted strong performance so far this year, despite a news cycle that has many investors questioning the path forward.

AI has evolved from concentrated innovation to increased adoption across industries, which has led to a considerable (and somewhat swift) shift in stock market leadership.

Fourth-quarter earnings results have been generally solid so far, albeit a bit weaker relative to prior quarters when it comes to beat rates and price reactions. On the international front, weakening global ties may lead to economic disruption and lasting investment implications. Meanwhile, bond market volatility has remained low despite economic and policy uncertainty.

While occasional bouts of volatility are likely, we expect the fixed income markets to provide ballast for portfolios and are likely to deliver solid returns in 2026.

As Trump and Powell argue over rates, the Taylor rule uses data to suggest where rates should be. But some argue this is an outdated way to set policy.

Weakening global ties may lead to economic disruption and lasting investment implications. Here's what investors should know about navigating the changing landscape.

Earnings results are shaping up to be quite solid this season, albeit a bit weaker relative to prior quarters when it comes to beat rates and price reactions.