Less favorable seasonal technicals, increased focus on municipal-specific policy risks, and severe volatility spurred by higher-than-anticipated tariff increases weighed heavilyon sentiment and resulted in deeply negative total returns and significant underperformance versus Treasuries in March and early April.
How recent market volatility has contributed to a sharp reversal in global equities.
One of the textbook drivers of alpha is an information edge. Having more information, advanced ways to use that information, and the ability to react to it before anyone else has been a massive advantage throughout the history of markets.
The 60/40 portfolio, where 60% is invested in stocks and 40% in bonds, is the initial starting point for many portfolios. The exact asset mix is often adjusted based on an investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals, but the simple, proportional stock-bond combination is what is often considered a “balanced” portfolio.
Q4 company earnings offered a lot to cheer at the start of the year, even as U.S. stocks contended with bouts of volatility.
Russ Koesterich discusses the risk of higher interest rates and the potential impact (both positive and negative) such a move could have on markets.
In the second half of 2024 the risk premia associated with inflation releases declined relative to labor market data as the Fed shifted focus toward labor market and away from inflation risk. With elevated S&P 500 Index concentration and the market leadership of the artificial intelligence (AI) theme, some single company earnings (NVIDIA) have been rising risk events for the entire index.
The second Trump presidency marks a new regime for government policy, with a range of potential macroeconomic and market implications.
At the same time, the Fed has mostly ignored the impact of easy financial conditions—the combination of stock, bond, and credit conditions—offsetting increases in interest rates by bolstering wealth and confidence.
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
What’s in store for stocks after two years of strong returns? Fundamental Equities Global CIO Tony DeSpirito assesses the prospects for another positive year and offers his year-ahead outlook through the lens of an active stock picker.
Value stocks hit some investors’ radar screens with a performance uptick in the second half of 2024. Yet many portfolios may be unwittingly underweighted in this popular equity style.
While stocks can move higher, the bond market will continue to matter. Higher rates suggest that equity leadership may continue to reside in companies that are relatively rate insensitive.
We are pro-risk, with the biggest overweight in U.S. stocks, yet eye three areas that could spur a view change.
Three interconnected lessons from 2024 help shape our 2025 outlook.
The S&P 500 Index posted its best month of the year in November, with a clear election result and a “no-surprise” Fed rate cut providing support.
Why cyclical leadership in equities could continue into 2025.
Investment themes are highly dynamic, shouldn’t your investment process be too? Learn about a systematic framework to help with identifying and investing across the themes driving markets.
Historical trends are being permanently broken in real time as mega forces, like the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), transform economies.
Expectations for solid corporate earnings drove our U.S. and Japanese equity overweights this year. They have delivered, showing that fundamentals are key. Earnings strength could matter more to equity investors in 2025 over valuations.
Why the equity market rally following the U.S. presidential election could continue into year-end.
The current global expansion has been characterized as one of US exceptionalism. Despite many developed market economies outperforming low expectations, the robustness of the US expansion has stood out. We believe this can continue based on differences between the US and European economies.
Municipal bonds broke their winning streak in October, posting negative total returns alongside broader fixed income assets.
We are in a world where multiple, starkly different outcomes are possible. The decisive U.S. election outcome has stoked uncertainty about future U.S. policy.
This is not a typical business cycle. We see structural forces holding inflation higher long term, keeping the Fed from cutting as much as markets expect.
As we think about investing around a historic election, establishing what we know, what we need to know, and what we can count on is a useful foundation for navigating the uncertainty.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why he believes U.S. exceptionalism is a trend that is likely to continue.
Annuity owners value the financial security that guaranteed lifetime income provides.
The start of a rate-cutting cycle has opened up new questions ― and possibilities ― for stock investors. Tony DeSpirito, Global CIO of BlackRock Fundamental Equities, outlines key areas to watch as the Fed takes action to “recalibrate” interest rates.
The tendency to blindly follow these rules has led investors towards prematurely de-risking and over-estimating the likelihood of recession.
Municipal bonds bucked the seasonal trend and posted strong performance in September.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses gold may continue to serve as a store of value in the current environment.
The puck has certainly moved since our last market commentary. This month, we argue that the needle on portfolio construction should move with it. Equities have been the driver of returns for much of the last few years.
We bring together historical and real-time analysis for insight into the economy, markets, and potential alpha opportunities and risks we’re watching.
The world could be undergoing a transformation akin to past technological revolutions. But the speed, size and impact of that investment is highly uncertain. We think leaning into the transformation and adapting as the outlook changes will be key.
The economy is not the stock market. And that’s good news.
The impressive arc of AI stock growth has been something to behold. Touring Silicon Valley and meeting with AI and tech company leaders offers another level of inspiration and insight on the market juggernaut. Active equity investor Tony Kim shared the experience and his broader AI investment outlook with The Bid podcast.
As the back-to-school season fills your social media feed with first-day photos and ads for the latest school supplies, it is also a prime opportunity for financial advisors to reconnect with clients about their education savings plans.
Munis cemented their best “summer” since 2010 after another month of strong performance. Some near-term caution is warranted given that September has been historically challenging. Robust issuance ahead of the election should provide opportunities in the primary market.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why the next bout of market volatility may last a bit longer than previous downturns and how to best position your portfolio against this backdrop.
An analysis of the leadership reversal and market sell-off observed in recent weeks and why an emphasis on equities with consistent fundamentals is justified.
Recent growth data have been muddled and subject to conflicting interpretations. There have been mixed signals from leading indicators and hard data and divergent readings across major economies.
The healthcare sector offers a compelling mix of defensive characteristics and growth potential driven by innovation. It also features ample dispersion that presents stock pickers with an opportunity to parse potential leaders and laggards in pursuit of above-market return.
The most glaring uncertainties today, which contributed to early August seeing some of the largest market moves in the last several years, are the risks associated with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate.
Improve your income potential with a tactical, unconstrained strategy that sources opportunities across geographies and asset classes. BlackRock Multi-Asset Income Fund takes a risk-first approach while seeking to deliver a consistently attractive yield.
Robust U.S. stock momentum hit a slowdown in the third quarter, even as strong company earnings results rolled in. Fundamental Equities’ U.S. and Developed Markets CIO Carrie King weighs in on the incongruence with three reflections from Q2 earnings season.
Technology stocks led the market for much of this year, with AI euphoria in full effect. Recent cracks in the momentum caused some investors to question whether the enthusiasm has been exhausted. Technology investors and active stock pickers Tony Kim and Reid Menge offer answers ― and an optimistic outlook.
Municipal bonds maintained their summer strength and posted a second-consecutive month of positive performance in July.
Recent macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, along with shifting AI sentiment, have raised concerns over whether strong headline returns, low volatility, and persistent mega cap tech leadership can continue as we look ahead.
