While the last 12 months were profoundly shaped by the incoming Trump administration’s DOGE program, tariffs, immigration and foreign policy, what hasn't changed over the last year is that the bond market still represents good value despite policy initiatives that cloud the outlook: “We think the Fed is poised to ease, given weak employment reports,” Pierson said.
We believe the best way to add value is through relative positioning in sector allocations, individual security selection and along the yield curve, holding duration neutral overall. That approach, however, does not prevent us from having views on interest rates and we think bonds offer good value at current rate levels.
The era of “TINA”—short for “there is no alternative” and describing a phenomenon where bond yields were so low that many investors felt they had no choice but to invest in stocks, even at stretched valuations—has given way to a market where they can “pay attention to the yield(s).” Or “PATTY,” for short.
Different investors will choose different paths in response to the challenge of low rates and high credit uncertainty. Some may want to fight the trend by taking on more risk to achieve a target level of income or return.
Bond holders can still find opportunities amid the tug of war between strengthening cyclical forces that usually produce inflation and powerful long-term trends—an aging population, technology’s impact on labor and the overhang of significant government debt—that are preventing the economy from overheating.