While the last 12 months were profoundly shaped by the incoming Trump administration’s DOGE program, tariffs, immigration and foreign policy, what hasn't changed over the last year is that the bond market still represents good value despite policy initiatives that cloud the outlook: “We think the Fed is poised to ease, given weak employment reports,” Pierson said.
Recessionary fears have subsided and all signs are that the global economy has stabilized, albeit at a less-than-desired growth rate. But risks abound – tariffs on Chinese goods that could trigger a trade war, Brexit negotiations, rising oil prices and a possible Fed rate hike.
Value in Short-Term Bonds: The sharp rise in short-term rates in 2017 has created attractive valuations on the front end of the investment-grade curve. If the curve could speak, almost certainly the shorter maturities would now be shouting, Look at me---look at me! Not since fall 2008 have investors been able to earn 2.0% or more on high-quality, short-term bonds such as 2-year Treasury notes.