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A Look Back (2011) and Forward (2012)
by Team of American Century Investments,
The major US equity markets ended 2011 not far from where they began in terms of their index values. Now that the New Year has arrived, the question is where these markets might be headed in 2012. Three important considerations behind this question are: 1. How key macro-factorse.g. the EU debt crisisare or arent addressed 2. Can U.S. corporations continue to deliver the earnings growth they have for the past three years 3. What are the prospects for US consumers and householdsan increasingly important consideration as the global recovery slowed in the fourth quarter of last year.
Emerging Asia Pacific: Economic Review 4th Quarter 2011
by Team of Thomas White International,
Emerging Asia Pacifics economic expansion slowed considerably beginning in October 2011. In many economies, export growth along with investments grew at their slowest pace since the summer of 2009. Although the Purchasing Managers Index improved across key economies in November the index was still under the 50 mark, which generally means a contraction in manufacturing activity. Almost all the countries in emerging Asia Pacific posted slower third quarter expansion over the year-ago period.
Developed Asia Pacific: Economic Review
by Team of Thomas White International,
Developed Asia Pacific economies faced economic headwinds for the greater part of the fourth quarter of 2011 beginning in October. Major export-oriented economies such as Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore witnessed slowing export growth as consumer confidence in key markets such as the U.S. and the EU remained weak. Although China boosted exports from Developed Asia Pacific economies, overall exports to emerging economies across the world came under pressure. Furthermore, the resilience of the labor market was also tested by the slowing export and domestic markets.
Aberdeen Chile Fund, Inc. Fund Manager Interview
Chile has developed a middle class quicker than many of its Latin American peers and consequently, more robust domestic consumption trends. Chile has formed close ties with China in recent years and in 2005 became the first country in Latin America to sign a Free Trade Agreement with the Asian nation. Chile has proven to be a model to the Latin American region in regards to good corporate governance and transparency. Though Chile will not be fully insulated from the global downturn, the countrys longterm fundamentals remain sound.
Intrade Recession Odds Plummet
by Team of Bespoke Investment Group,
The stock market has stabilized over the past few weeks here in the US. This has coincided with a belief that things might not be as bad as expected here in the US on the economic front. One way to highlight sentiment towards the US economy is through Intrade's contract for whether or not the US will go into a recession in 2012. As shown below, the odds have plummeted recently down to just 25.1%, which is the lowest level seen since mid-2011 before Europe really went haywire.
A Postcard from the Middle East & Africa
by Team of Thomas White International,
Retail therapy may or may not make the soul happy but it sure does make the feet sore. Young Middle Easterners though have warmed up to a retail format that promises to keep both soul and feet happy. E-commerce and online retail are getting bigger by the day across the Middle East for several reasons. For one, the region recorded the worlds fastest growth in internet usage between 2000 and 2009, and it is now home to more than 60 million internet users, which makes it a huge market for online transactions.
2011 In A Nutshell
by Team of Bespoke Investment Group,
We ran our decile analysis on the S&P 500 to see which stock characteristics impacted performance the most in 2011. Based on our analysis, it was dividend yield that mattered the most. The three deciles of stocks with the highest dividend yields are the only ones that averaged gains in 2011.The stocks in the seven remaining deciles all averaged declines, with the three lowest yielding deciles seeing the biggest losses. If you had a conservative portfolio of high yielders, chances are you outperformed significantly. If you had an aggressive growth portfolio, chances are you underperformed.
Investment Perspective Fourth Quarter 2011
by Team of Cambridge Advisors,
The concerns over Europes debt problems continued and contributed to volatility in stock prices and bond prices. Although the markets have responded favorably to the partial solutions that have emerged, the issues are not entirely resolved. In this environment where the outlook can and does change quickly based on unfolding worldwide events, volatility is likely to persist. We continue to believe diversification across asset classes is the prudent strategy in this environment. Bonds provide stability, but stock exposure is needed for long-term growth.
Middle East/Africa Fourth Quarter 2011 Economic Review
by Team of Thomas White International,
Weakening global activity and further political uncertainty are the foremost risks that are likely to affect the Middle East and Africa (MEA) regions performance. The IMF report notes that oil exporting nations of the MEA region have benefited from continued high energy prices and are slated to finish off 2011 clocking in a GDP growth of 5% before easing to 4% in 2012. However, these countries do face a downside risk in the likelihood of fiscal and debt challenges in the developed nations that could adversely impact global activity and international oil prices.
New Year, Old Worries
by Team of BondWave Advisors,
2011 was a volatile year where the old guard of the global economy was plagued by weak economies, bloated debt levels, tight credit, and action against normally stellar credit ratings. Europe dominated the headlines, both in December and 2011 overall, and continues to struggle. We discuss these issues and provide additional insight into the US Treasury, Corporate and Municipal Bond Markets.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
The year 2012 is upon us and looms large for a number of different reasons. Within the next few days, the first of the Presidential primaries will begin and by early November we will know who our next President is and who controls Congress, along with many State Houses. Some astrologists believe this is the Age of Aquarius and according to the Mayan calendar, December 21st will be the end of time, or as some prefer to think of it (ourselves included) the beginning of a new age. Maybe the astrologists and Mayans have something going.
Beyond Beasts and Bossa Nova:The Brazilian Boom
by Team of Guild Investment Management,
What does all this mean for those who wish to invest in Brazil? It means that when it is time to buy Brazil and the time isnt here yet you will want to consider banks and credit card companies as a way to capture the wave of consumer cash since many consumers go abroad to buy personal and pricey consumer goods. To take advantage of rising internal Brazilian spending you will probably want to consider autos, housing, and big ticket durables that will not fit into the luggage of shoppers returning from spending trips abroad.
Preferred Securities Investment Commentary
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
With interest rates likely to remain near historical lows for an extended period, we believe the high income potential of preferred securities (which currently offer nearly twice the income of corporate bonds) will continue to attract investors. Not only is high income in high demand, but it also provides a meaningful buffer to the total return profile of the asset class in this volatile environment.
Global Infrastructure Investment Commentary
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
The investment environment is likely to continue to be characterized by heightened risk, including political risk as governments institute austerity measures and posture ahead of upcoming elections. The delay in the Keystone XL pipeline in the United States and Canada and the challenge faced by Central Japan Railway in confirming government financial assistance underscore these risks. Positive fundamental trends do continue, such as in the North American pipeline space, where companies continue to benefit from the need to reshape the regions energy grid.
Emerging Markets Real Estate
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
Emerging markets real estate securities had a negative return in November following an exceptionally strong October. Worries about the global economy and Europe continued to weigh on equities broadly, while signs of slowing growth in China were of particular concern to developing countries. A sharp rally in the last few days offset some of the decline, as China cut its reserve requirement ratio for the first time in three years and central banks announced a coordinated effort to provide much-needed liquidity to European banks.
International Real Estate Investment Commentary
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
Our macro outlook has turned more positive given the recent shift toward monetary easing in Asia Pacific and emerging markets, as well as U.S. economic data confirming slow but positive growth. However, Europe is likely to remain an overhang, as the region appears to be heading into recession, making a resolution to its debt crisis considerably more difficult.
U.S. Real Estate Securities - November 2011
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
Europe appears headed for recession, which would have at least some negative effect on the U.S. economy. However, that is a scenario we have incorporated into our models, and we continue to expect slow but steady domestic growth with gradually improving fundamentals for U.S. commercial real estate. Our estimates of net asset value are largely conservative. While transactional information has been relatively light, it has provided confirmation to our numbers. We believe acquisition activity could pick up as 2012 progresses, especially as REITs ability to raise capital remains in force.
Global Real Estate Investment Commentary
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
Our macro outlook has turned more positive given the recent shift toward monetary easing in Asia Pacific and emerging markets, as well as U.S. economic data confirming slow but positive growth. However, Europe is likely to remain an overhang, as the region appears to be heading into recession, making a resolution to its debt crisis considerably more difficult.
Closed End Funds Investment Commentary
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
With interest rates likely to remain near historical lows for an extended period, we believe that attractive spreads should continue to benefit the income-generating potential of leveraged closed-end funds. As for new closed-end fund issuances, we believe the IPO window will remain open, but not to the degree that could pressure pricing in the secondary market or impede discount narrowing as investors bid for above-average income.
European Investment Commentary
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
Our global macro view has turned more positive given the recent shift toward monetary easing in Asia Pacific and emerging markets, as well as U.S. economic data confirming slow but positive growth. However, we expect Europe to struggle in the intermediate term as austerity measures introduced by a variety of governments continue to hinder growth.
Large Cap Value Commentary
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
We expect the markets to do better through year-end (although most of November gave us pause), but the outlook for the first half of 2012 remains wildly uncertain. Modestly improving U.S. economic data have not fully offset the European debt quagmire that is now inhibiting growth around the world. Recent economic news from the continent has been decidedly weaker, and is beginning to show up in data from Germany, the regions economic juggernaut and stalwart defender of a unified Europe.
Value Traps and Investor Psychology
by Team of American Century Investments,
Many financial market participants are familiar with what is generally known as the two basic emotions felt by investors, greed and fear. Very often, over-enthusiasm is observed accompanying greed during bull markets and over-despondency is seen on the heels of fear during bear markets. Besides the cyclical aspects of investor psychology, there are other aspects of behavioral finance (another name for this branch of psychology) to explore that relate to value trap avoidance.
Seeking Absolute Return: Finding Opportunity in Overly Hyped Alternatives
by Team of Litman Gregory,
This commentary references and updates views originally shared in our 2003 whitepaper on hedge-fund strategies. Today, we have similar concerns about a low-return environment for stocks in the years ahead. As we concluded eight years ago, hedge-fund strategies do have the potential to add value to a portfolio. However, finding funds that are skillfully managed and offered at a reasonable cost remains a difficult challenge.
The Three Scrooges
by Team of Dana Investment Advisors,
Lawmakers are lining up to play Ebenezer Scrooge in the seasons production of A Christmas Carol. The backdrop for this years production is energy and the key players trying for the lead role are the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency), the Department of Energy, and Congress. They are each doing their best to stifle energy development thereby keeping gas prices high and curtailing job growth.
Pacific Basin Market Overview November 2011
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
In our assessment the market has already priced in the prospect of future earnings deterioration and credit risk spreads. Although we must be watchful for the possibility of a temporary future decline in share prices in the event that investors again become more risk averse, we believe an up-tick in investor sentiment will be enough to support a market rally. Cash levels at institutions are relatively high, valuations are very reasonable and investor sentiment is weak. Nevertheless, support for Asian markets could come from the fresh evidence that the U.S. economy has regained some momentum.
Changing of the Guard: Do European and U.S. Debt Woes Signal a Shift in the Economic World Order?
by Team of Emerald Asset Advisors,
Industrialized nations in the West have enjoyed decades of economic prosperity and generous social safety nets. However, recent events have made it clear that shifting demographics and huge debt burdens will make it increasingly difficult, if not impossible, for many industrialized nations to maintain the same standard of living for their citizens. It seems that many formerly emerged economies are now on the verge of submerging. As citizens and political leaders in Europe and the U.S. slowly awaken to this reality, economies in many emerging markets are moving ahead at full steam.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
The third quarter of 2011 produced negative returns for just about every asset class in every country in the world. Although the markets have rebounded over the past two and a half months, the net worth of each American household fell, on average, by 4% during those 90 days. This was the largest drop since the fourth quarter of 2008 which marked the beginning of the Great Recession. While the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was the so-called catalyst for the decline in 2008, the decline from July 1st to September 30th this year was largely based on the fears of a default by the US government.
The Credit Research Case for Using Muni Funds
by Team of American Century Investments,
We believe muni market credit quality remains generally high despite continuing changes and challenges, including the demise of the bond insurance industry (which has created a more heterogeneous muni market) and the slow economic recovery, which has put continued pressures on municipal budgets. However, we believe these challenges have made experienced, professional credit analysis more important than ever. One way for investors and advisors to access expert, experienced credit analysis is through the use of established muni mutual funds that have been through multiple market cycles.
The Third Dimension
by Team of Beacon Pointe,
The uncertainty generated by the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in Europe and policymakers' deadlock in the U.S. is likely to persist for a while, but it should not drive long-term investors out of the market. We believe it is prudent to stay focused on the third dimension -- time -- and to remain committed to one's long-term investment strategy with an emphasis on diversification, capital preservation, and careful manager research and selection.
Intrade Contracts for a Recession and the Health Care Law
by Team of Bespoke Investment Group,
We've been highlighting the Intrade contracts for the 2012 elections quite a bit recently, but below are two other contracts that readers may find interesting. The first chart shown is of the Intrade contract for whether or not the US will go into a recession in 2012. For the contract to pay out, US real GDP would need to be negative for two consecutive quarters. As shown, the odds of a recession in 2012 are currently at 38.2% This is down from a high near 50% that was reached in early October. Since then, economic indicator data in the US has gotten much better.
Will a Eurozone Recession Put a Damper on the World's Fragile Economic Recovery?
by Team of Knowledge @ Wharton,
If large parts of Europe fall into a recession, as many experts are predicting, it is likely to have negative, although varied, effects on economies around the world, including those -- like the United States -- that are struggling to recover from the global financial crisis. As European leaders hammer out yet another package of solutions this week, Wharton faculty weigh in on the impact of a eurozone recession, as well as the pros and cons of the recovery measures that are up for debate.
Some Perspective on Recent Stock Market Volatility
by Team of American Century Investments,
Both October and November exhibited substantial price volatility. For the full month of October, the index was up 10.9% on a total return basisthe best October performance for the S&P 500 in nearly 20 years. In contrast, for November the index was down -7.5% through Friday the 25th before a substantial rally the last three trading days of the month. Well take a closer look at the volatility of the S&P 500 from a historical perspective to provide some insights about market volatility its history, trends and causes.
Asset Class Correlations
by Team of Bespoke Investment Group,
The charts below highlight the rolling six month correlations for the S&P 500 relative to oil, US Treasuries, and gold. There has been much discussion recently regarding the extreme correlations within global financial markets. In fact, the correlation between the S&P 500 and US Treasuries was recently at a record inverse extreme.In recent weeks, however, the extreme correlations between the S&P 500 and all three asset classes has eased somewhat, with the inverse correlation between the S&P 500 and gold moderating substantially.
Adding Some Holiday Gloss to a Not-So-Super Month
by Team of BondWave Advisors,
November began with a European shakeup that did little to bolster the confidence of investors. Fear raged as Greece and Italy threatened to roll back efforts made by the ECB and IMF. In the US, all eyes were on the supercommittee, which was tasked with reducing the deficit over the next 10 years. BondWave Advisors discuss the US economic indicators that brought a coat of gloss to the pessimism and provide additional insight into the US Treasury, Corporate and Municipal Bond Markets.
Week in Review: Worst Thanksgiving Week for Equities Since 1932
by Team of American Century Investments,
The continuing European sovereign debt crisis and the failure of the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction to reach an agreement on the U.S. budget deficit weighed on the major equity indices, with the S&P 500 Index down 4.69%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 4.78%. The European debt crisis continues to take center stage. While the peripheral countries of Greece, Portugal, and Ireland have dominated headlines for months, the bigger core countries of Italy, France, Germany, and Spain were the main acts this past week.
The European Crisis and Global Investing
by Team of Neuberger Berman,
The sovereign debt crisis in Europe has placed persistent pressure on global equity markets since first emerging as a problem in Greece in the first half of 2010 and quickly spreading to Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. In a recent panel discussion, moderated by Investment Strategist Leah Modigliani, Benjamin Segal, portfolio manager and head of the Global Equity team, and Tony Gleason, portfolio manager for the MLG Group, discussed the turmoil in Europe, prospects for global growth, and some potential areas of opportunity. We share their thoughts below.
Residential Housing Hangover
by Team of Neuberger Berman,
The housing crisis has left a lasting mark on the U.S. economy. Six years after the market peak in 2005, home prices continue to falter in some areas of the country, volumes remain low, and many investors and potential homebuyers remain wary of the residential marketplace. In this edition of Strategic Spotlight, we examine recent data from the U.S. housing market to consider how they may figure into overall growth expectations going forward.
Telecommunications Sector in India: Surviving the Scandals and Consolidating Past Gains for Future
by Team of Thomas White International,
From one of the most celebrated among emerging market success stories to a case study in corruption and nepotism, the Indian communications industry has seen a dramatic swing in fortunes in recent years. After several decades of stagnancy under a government-owned monopoly, the industry became a classic example of how the right combination of new technology, innovation, and supportive government policies can transform a sector. Through the industrys success, Indias large consumer market potential was boosted, attracting investments into several other sectors of the economy.
Beyond the Supercommittee
by Team of Charles Schwab,
After months of negotiations, the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction announced that it could not reach agreement, stating: "we have come to the conclusion today that it will not be possible to make any bipartisan agreement available to the public before the committee's deadline" The supercommittee had a deadline of November 23 to make recommendations to trim at least $1.2 trillion from the budget deficit. What's beyond the supercommittee? Schwab answers the key questions. Such as, why did the supercommittee fail? and are US Treasuries still a safe-haven investment? among others.
Liquidity of the Banking System Remains in Focus
by Team of ChinaScope,
With year end approaching, the release of financial deposits will have a magnified impact on the monetary base. Central financial deposits released are expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan in Nov-Dec this year. Loan-to-deposit ratio (LTD) and capital assessment were tightened by the end of October. A holistic approach to analyzing bank data is required is provide a complete picture of bank liquidity and its impact on SME financing.
Investment Outlook: November 2011
Financial crisis continues to dominate the political agenda: a credit crunch looms as Europes banks shrink balance sheets, growth momentum is diverging among different regions, investor focus on global fiscal policy will intensify in 2012 and abundant liquidity via central bank easing is likely to prevail for some time. Economic data has tended to surprise analysts over the last few weeks, encouraging the view that growth may not be as weak as some were predicting only a month ago. However the picture is very different among different regions around the world.
Supercommittee Update
by Team of Charles Schwab,
New this week: the real deadline for the supercommittee; why we think there's still hope for an agreement; President Obama's vow to veto legislation to "undo" automatic cuts if an agreement isn't reached.
What are the different deadlines for the supercommittee, and what do they mean? November 23 is the deadline by which the supercommittee must put forward recommendations to cut at least $1.2 trillion from the deficit. However, the supercommittee must post its recommendations publicly 48 hours prior to November 23, meaning the true deadline for finishing its work is Monday, November 21.
The Holiday Spending Outlook Reflects Continued Consumer Caution About the Economy
by Team of American Century Investments,
Santa may not be especially generous, but at least hes planning on adding a little extra compared to last year. That outlook is according to the National Retail Federation. And while this forecast is not one to get retailers especially excited about the season, it is the second best outlook for growth in spending in the past five years. The major challenge for retailers will be that, while spending is forecast to increase slightly, consumers will be price-conscious and bargain-drivenmeaning that generating profit growth off any sales increases will be a difficult challenge.
Not a Level Playing Field: How Big Investors Benefit from Selective Access to Top Management
by Team of Knowledge @ Wharton,
The title of a research paper by Wharton accounting professor Brian J. Bushee and two colleagues is in the form of a question: "Do Investors Benefit from Selective Access to Management?" The answer, the paper strongly suggests, is yes. Bushee and co-authors Michael J. Jung and Gregory S. Miller define selective access as the opportunity to meet privately with management at invitation-only investor conferences. That access, the researchers say, can result in profitable trading opportunities for big investors.
Why The Price Of Oil Has Risen From About $75 To About $100 Over The Past Six Weeks
by Team of Guild Investment Management,
Many veteran observers seriously question the intelligence of ongoing policies that ignore domestic resources and keep the US sending billions of dollars a year to countries that dislike the US and actively seek Americas decline. After it's recent rise, we recommend investors take profits in oil. It can go higher but we like taking profits after a rapid rise. Also, a mechanism is being put in place that will allow financially-responsible Eurozone countries to force irresponsible members to either make necessary changes in their approach to government spending or to leave the Euro currency.
As Alternative Investments Move into the Mainstream, Advisors and Investors Need to Choose Wisely
by Team of Emerald Asset Advisors,
We believe that having a piece of an overall portfolio that is committed to liquid alternatives is a critical component to long-term portfolio stability, capital preservation and growth. No one wants a repeat of 2008, or anything close to it. There are an abundance of liquid alternative choices available, some of which have proven themselves through various market cycles and environments. They have gone from Wall Street to Main Street for good reason. Embrace the opportunity, and you and your clients may just sleep a bit better at night during these volatile times.
It Ain't Over Till It's OverAnd Thats Not Happening Soon
by Team of Guild Investment Management,
Dont expect the current crisis of budgetary deficits and spending restraints to stop any time soon. Instead, think in these realistic terms: the era of fiscal restraint and spending limits has come, and will be with us for ten to twenty more years. It is obvious to veteran observers that Europe and America are facing hard choices that will result in slow growth and increased suffering for the people. And for that we have our incompetent legislators past and present to thank. They have misused their mandates, grossly exceeded their budgets, and are loath to correct wayward behaviors.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
2012 may be the year that banks get back into the business of actually lending money. While some of the banks that avoided the real estate fiascos have been in a position to lend money to the most highly qualified borrowers, we should see a significant increase in lending by all banks during 2012. Like consumers, big banks spent the last few years repairing their balance sheets. They now need to find ways to deploy their capital other than using it for a write-off. Interest rates are about as low as they can go, especially for high quality borrowers.
Pacific Basin Market Overview October 2011
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
The Japanese equity market ended the month of October almost unchanged. Concerns about Europes sovereign debt crisis and a slowdown in the global economy initially sent the index sliding to a new year-to-date low at the outset. Subsequently, the Japanese stock market rebounded along with a steady retreat from the excessive investor pessimism surrounding overseas economic conditions. Positive U.S. economic indicators, including unexpectedly strong employment figures, housing data and solid GDP growth, boosted market confidence.
Style Investing Revisited: A Disciplined Approach Means More Than Adhering to a Style Universe
by Team of The Royce Funds,
Over time much has been written about style investinggrowth versus valuewithin the small-cap universe. In fact, investors often rely on style indexes such as the Russell 2000 Value Index and Russell 2000 Growth Index as proxies for a particular style and/or performance pattern, such as moving to value in anticipation of a bear market or growth in expectation of a bull. While this is certainly easy and convenient, especially for performance comparisons, style indexes are often more about a particular type of company or narrow set of criteria as opposed to a specific investment approach.
Results 2,301–2,350
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