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Is Decoupling for Real?
by Team of Neuberger Berman,
After an extended period of high correlations, U.S. and European stock markets have taken distinctive paths in recent months. In this report, we take a look at the link between underlying economic fundamentals and market results to consider whether these markets have truly decoupled or are simply going through a temporary separation.
Global Real Estate Securities - January 2012 Review & Outlook
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
We are encouraged by the recent trend of U.S. economic data showing measured improvement, including steady employment gains. With funding costs remaining low and demand showing signs of strengthening, we believe U.S. real estate fundamentals will continue to gradually improve in 2012. Importantly, new supply remains scarce in most sectors, due in large part to banks continued reluctance to finance speculative development projects.
International Real Estate Securities - January 2012 Review & Outlook
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
International real estate securities rallied along with stocks broadly in January amid an easing of macro risk concerns. Positive developments in Europe significantly reduced the risk of a liquidity crisis, while data from China suggested the country was successfully navigating a soft landing to its economy. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy continued to show evidence of modest yet self-sustaining growth.
Global Listed Infrastructure - January 2012 Review & Outlook
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
We have a positive near-term outlook for infrastructure securities based on improving U.S. economic data and stabilizing credit conditions in Europe. But there are still headwinds. The road to Europes recovery is unlikely to be smooth; and in the United States, state and local government debt may dampen growth. Emerging markets are likely to be somewhat stronger, in our view, driven by better structural demand. For this reason, we have increased our investments in Brazil, China and Mexico.
Greek Crisis: This Too Shall Pass
Jerry Palmieri, Vice President and Sr. Portfolio Manager for Franklin Equity Group, doesnt worry too much about whether the Greek drama dominating daily headlines will turn into global market tragedy. A veteran of Franklin Templeton since 1965, hes survived to tell the tale after more than four decades of market ups and downs. His wizened view summarized: Market ups and downs are to be expected. U.S. market, economy will survive the Greek debt crisis. Things will work out. Market timing not the ticket to long-term investing success.
Large Cap Value Strategy - January 2012 Review & Outlook
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
January was a quiet but strong month for equities. Investors moved away from defensive sectors and into somewhat riskier names as sentiment about the global economic outlook improved. There was no bad news from Europe. Indeed, global markets expressed relief that Europes banks now have access to additional liquidity through the Long-Term Refinancing Operations program (LTRO) announced in December. The U.S. economy continued to show self-sustaining growth that, while modest, allayed fears of recession.
Preferred Securities - January 2012 Review & Outlook
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
Preferred securities had their best month in more than a year in January, driven largely by significant improvement in European credit markets. Investors also gained encouragement from positive U.S. economic data, as well as improving credit trends for U.S. banks despite their lackluster profitability. In Europe, yields on bank and sovereign debt declined sharply in the wake of the European Central Banks long-term refinancing operation. The program reduced systemic risk in the financial system by improving European banks liquidity, while also giving banks the capacity to buy sovereign debt.
Muni Outlook Q&A with Portfolio Manager Alan Kruss
by Team of American Century Investments,
Municipal bonds (munis) are back in the bond market spotlight, but for different reasons than a year ago (when widespread defaults were projected, and muni funds experienced heavy outflows). Muni performance has rebounded strongly since then, which has triggered follow-up questions about the muni market outlook. We posed them to Alan Kruss, Vice President and Municipal Portfolio Manager at American Century Investments.
Emerging Markets Real Estate Securities
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
We believe that recent developments within emerging real estate markets are consistent with our macro view. As emerging economies work through the late stages of a mid-cycle slowdown, policy markets are attempting to engineer soft landings as inflation pressures moderate. Given the potential for better domestic growth, we expect to take advantage of buying opportunities among residential developers (e.g., in Brazil), and have selectively been moving in that direction.
Closed End Funds - January 2012 Review and Outlook
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
The U.S. economic picture has brightened meaningfully since December, and we expect the trend to continue, albeit at a modest pace. We are also encouraged by progress in Europe, but continue to monitor developments closely, as the issues there are complex and will take considerable time to resolve, while economic austerity measures are likely to weigh on growth. In this period of extended easy monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, we believe the yield advantage of leveraged closed-end funds will continue to draw investor interest, as demonstrated by the IPO in January.
European Real Estate Securities
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
Recent initiatives to address the sovereign credit crisis appear to be having a meaningfully positive effect on credit conditions across Europe. Importantly, the ECBs long-term repurchase program has given banks vital breathing room to recapitalize. While we are cautiously optimistic, we remain vigilant to the potential risks and have a keen eye on Greece, which is engaged in ongoing negotiations with international lenders.
Emerging Markets Equity - January 2012
by Team of Thomas White International,
Emerging market equities outperformed the developed markets by a wide margin in January, as investors became increasingly confident that weak data trends from the third quarter of last year were not an indication of a significant growth deceleration in the major emerging economies. The gains were well spread out as almost all regions participated in the uptrend. India, Egypt, and select markets in Europe that had seen the worst price declines during the second half of last year, recovered the most during January.
International Equity - January 201
by Team of Thomas White International,
International equity prices recorded strong gains in January on increased optimism that the global economy is not headed for a significant downturn this year. Markets across all regions, led by Asia, recovered during the month. Emerging markets, which had seen price declines during the second half of last year, outperformed the developed markets. Economic indicators from most regions, except Europe, have been relatively healthy and suggest expansion. EU leaders have now agreed to set tighter fiscal rules for member countries, including limits on fiscal deficits and aggregate public debt.
U.S. Real Estate Securities - January 2012 Review & Outlook
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
We are encouraged by the recent trend of U.S. economic data including steady employment gains. With funding costs likely to remain low and demand showing signs of strengthening, U.S. real estate fundamentals will continue to gradually improve. New supply remains scarce in most sectors, due in large part to banks continued reluctance to finance speculative development projects.The positive trajectory, however, is not without potential dangers. Economic growth remains at risk to global macro concerns, and our global investment team continues to closely monitor developments in Europe and China.
Weekly Market Update: Introduction to Alternative Investments
by Team of American Century Investments,
Alternative investments (or alts as they are commonly known) have exploded in popularity in recent years. What began as specialty investment strategies utilized by only the most sophisticated institutional investorssuch as pension plans and university endowmentsare now readily available to retail investors through a number of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. Here we try to explain alts appeal in broad terms, discussing how these strategies are used and what role alts may play in an individual investors portfolio.
Hasenstab Sticks to His Guns
Michael Hasenstab, Portfolio Manager of the Templeton Global Bond Fund, doesnt scare so easily. As he reiterated recently, he actually sees times of market panic as opportunities to make investments where he sees long-term value. The key thoughts he shared: The challenge during periods of volatility is that, although investors can take a short-term hit, this volatility can create opportunity. Fears Europe will sink Asia appear overblown. China not likely to see a hard landing. The Eurozone drama continues to unfold.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
There was much to cheer about in the January jobs number, with unemployment dropping to 8.2% and 243,000 jobs being created; almost 90,000 more than was originally projected. On top of that, the government revised the November and December numbers, adding another 60,000 jobs to those two months, bringing the total number of people employed during 2011 to around 1.82 million. But, among all the good news that both sides of the political arena jumped all over, there remain some unpleasant facts.
Pacific Basin Market Overview January 2012
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
The risk of a meltdown in the peripheral European economies now appears to have been alleviated due to aggressive monetary easing by the European Central Bank. We have also recently upgraded our GDP forecast for the U.S. Japan has started implementing the third supplementary budget for earthquake reconstruction. As such, the countrys growth rate will exceed those of other developed economies in the first half of 2012. A less hostile global environment will be positive for Asian stock markets as investors increasingly appreciate the regions superior fundamentals.
Does Inequality Mean Slower Growth?
by Team of Neuberger Berman,
As the November election inches closer, taxes are as always a key element of the political debate. This time out, however, the issue of income inequality has become more prominent, altering the typically partisan argument over tax rates. Below, we take a closer look at the dynamics of income inequality, how it could affect the long-term outlook for U.S. economic growth and what that implies for tax policy.
Our Budget Deficit and the Coming Elections
by Team of American Century Investments,
One week ago, the CBO released its latest federal budget and economic outlook for the U.S. In the associated report, they explain that their ten year baseline budget projection is not a forecast of future events. Instead, it is provided as a policy benchmark that reflects what will occur to the federal budget and deficits if the existing taxation and spending laws are kept intact without additional legislative actions. Of course, we are now within nine months of a major election where a key issue will be what changes are needed to address our present fiscal woes.
Private Equity: Fact, Fiction and What Lies in Between
by Team of Knowledge @ Wharton,
What good is private equity, anyway? Critics say these investment pools make money the wrong way -- buying "target companies," slashing jobs, piling on debt and selling the remnants, which by then are doomed to fail. Defenders say PE is a strong creator of jobs and value, and a vital source of outsized returns for pension funds, university endowments and other investment pools that serve ordinary people. Who's right?
European Update: Volatility Will Remain High Amidst Rating Agency and Political Uncertainty
S&P downgraded nine of the 16 Euro area countries on credit watch negative. Germany is now the sole AAA country with a stable outlook. The primary drivers of the downgrades were reduced political and external scores. The near-term market impacts have been relatively muted, as the downgrades were not as bad as investors may have feared. However, the negative outlooks across the region and potential for further downgrades. Within the Euro area, further volatility is likely to be reflected in lower German yields relative to other Euro area bond markets.
Global Overview: January 2012
by Team of Thomas White International,
Concerns over a significant global downturn have faded further as economic data trends from the last days of 2011 and the early days of the current year remain healthy. Global manufacturing activity expanded again in January, helped by output growth in the U.S., China, Japan, India, and Australia. Manufacturing output also improved in the Euro-zone, helped by continued gains in Germany. U.S. labor market conditions advanced again in January, raising hopes for increased consumer demand that will also help export growth in other economies such as China.
Obama Re-Election Odds Versus the Stock Market
by Team of Bespoke Investment Group,
Obama's odds to win re-election onIntrade.comhave been steadily rising since hitting their lows in the mid-40s last September. Last week alone, the odds rose from 54% to 56.6%. We've overlaid the historical Intrade.com odds for Obama to win re-election on a chart of the S&P 500 going back to 2010. As shown, the lows in Obama's re-election odds came at the exact same time that the stock market made its low last year. Rest assured that the Obama team is watching the stock market just as closely as any poll out there as the 2012 election looms.
The U.S. Economy Marches On To An Unsteady Beat
by Team of BondWave Advisors,
Despite the misgivings by the Fed about the recovery, and with much of Europe teetering on recession, domestic economic data continues to suggest moderate expansion in both output and employment. We discuss this situation along with the positive performance of the Treasury, Corporate and Municipal bond markets.
Knowledge is the Antidote to Fear
by Team of Sloan Wealth Management,
We feel investors should focus on the high probability that this could be a rewarding decade. The volatility of the market can often mask the improving fundamentals. Now two years into the decade, we are pleased that the SWM Moderate Risk Composite is up 14%. This election year will create endless entertainment, needed discussion on the future of our great nation and finally clarity for corporations and individuals. This clarity should allow corporations to loosen their purse strings and continue to fuel growth.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
If you dont think there is a huge disconnect between government spending and government revenues, perhaps some of the following facts will convince you. This information is important given discussions in Congress during the month of February regarding extending the payroll tax holiday to the end of the year, and how that will be paid for. For the fiscal year ending Sept 30, 2011 government spending equaled 24% of GDP, taxes collected were 15% of GDP. Combine the two and you can understand why the country is moving in the wrong direction.This cannot be sustained and it will require sacrifice.
The U.S. Economy: This is How Our Game is Played
by Team of American Century Investments,
In an election year, it is impossible to escape the bombardment of political rhetoric. Politicians typically have little compunction as they encroach into the arena of economics. As a result, people from all walks of life, including investors, are often left confused and wondering which of the various economic theories and norms remain relevant. The goal of this piece is to consider what recompense we receive from government intervention in the economy. Some bitter divisions exist regarding the style of play that should be adopted to guide our nation as the slow economic recovery continues.
Royce Looks Back at 2011, a Year of Correlation, Capitulation, and Consternation
by Team of The Royce Funds,
Twenty-eleven saw disasters both natural and human. There were threats of European default, failures of political leadership, worries over recession, and the ever-present specter of staggering debt. All of these events contributed to one of the wildest years for stocks in recent memory. It seems likely that 2011 will be remembered not for the severity of its losses, which weren't nearly as bad as one might think, but for its daily drama of extreme volatility.
Global Infrastructure Investment Commentary - December 2011
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
We are entering 2012 with a positive outlook for infrastructure securities based on better-than-expected U.S. economic data and credit conditions in Europe that show some signs of stabilizing. Even so, we recognize that it will take time for the global economy to achieve sustained growth. We will continue to monitor global monetary policies, having already seen the beginning of the next easing cycle. Despite the fact that the sector still carries meaningful political and regulatory risk, we believe infrastructure companies should perform well in 201
Preferred Securities Investment Commentary - December 2011
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
In terms of preferreds broad performance potential, we note that bond yields are at or near historic lows, and that the Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady until 2013. In such an environment, the income offered by preferreds (78% or more) will be hard to come by, likely resulting in good investor demand in the year ahead. At the same time, the high income these securities produce is also likely to continue to factor meaningfully into their total return and dampen returns volatility.
LCV Web Commentary - December 2011
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
We continue to believe that the crisis in Europe is far from over; that the improving U.S. economic data, while encouraging, signal something well short of a robust recovery; and consequently, that the first half of 2012 remains highly uncertain. For these reasons, we still expect (1) more intervention by politicians and central bankers, (2) continued historically low interest rates in the US, (3) modestly positive U.S. economic data, (4) high but slowing growth in China and emerging markets, (5) short-term measures to address Europes long-term debt crisis.. and others.
Europe Investment Commentary - Full Year 2011
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
Our global macro outlook has turned positive given the shift toward monetary easing as well as U.S. economic data steadily improving growth. However, Europes central role in fiscal crises has made for a difficult backdrop in the region. We have begun to envision a recession in Europe as a base-case scenario. Given this, we seek to invest in companies that are best able to shield themselves from the most adverse effects of a slowing economy. Broadly speaking, opportunities to invest in companies with good balance sheets that are trading at meaningful discounts to their property values.
Global Real Estate Securities Investment Commentary - Full Year 2011
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
Our macro outlook has turned more positive given the global shift toward monetary easing as well as U.S. economic data confirming steadily improving growth. However, we expect the fiscal crisis plaguing Europe to remain an overhang, as the region is likely heading into recession, making a long-term resolution increasingly difficult. Despite these challenges, we believe fundamentals for global real estate securities will continue to improve broadly, with the lack of new supply coupling with growing demand and effective expense reduction to generate meaningful cash flow growth.
Adding to Our Pro-Muni Arguments
by Team of American Century Investments,
Last month, we outlined multiple reasons why investors and investment advisors should consider high-quality muni investments as core fixed income portfolio holdings. In support of owning funds vs. individual securities, we focused primarily on credit-quality issueshow we believe most of the muni market remains fundamentally sound and resilient, but pressured by the economic and fiscal environment. We think this has created a heterogeneous muni market with generally strong credit quality but dotted with potential credit risks and pitfalls in select areas that require professional vigilance.
International Real Estate Investment Commentary - Full Year 2011
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
We remain materially underweight Europe and Japan, and overweight Asia Pacific (ex-Japan). We have selective allocations to well-established companies in emerging markets whose business models are positioned to benefit from secular growth in consumer spending among emerging middle classes. We are overweight high-quality retail and offices in major city centers globally, where tenant demand has been more resilient and supply more constrained. Finally, we have allocations in property sectors and geographies where stronger cyclical recovery is emerging as a driver of outsized cash flow growth.
Is There Value in U.S. Equities?
by Team of Emerald Asset Advisors,
The importance of asset allocation and timing was again evident last year. After rallying earlier in the year, stocks took investors on a gut-wrenching ride over the summer before rallying again in the fall. And for all of the twists and turns, in the end the S&P 500 essentially ended the year where it began. But that's history. What do we expect looking ahead? As we examine today's investment landscape, we believe opportunities can be found in U.S. stocks, particularly large-cap stocks. There are several trends in place that support our view.
Closed End Funds Investment Commentary December 2011
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
The U.S. economic picture has brightened in recent weeks, a positive for equities and credit markets, and we expect slow sustained growth. However, Europe remains a risk. While recent fiscal, political and central bank initiatives to address the credit crisis in Europe are encouraging, the political landscape remains uncertain, and economic austerity measures will weigh on growth. With interest rates likely to remain near historical lows for an extended period, we believe that attractive spreads should continue to benefit the income-generating potential of leveraged closed-end funds.
U.S. Real Estate Securities Investment Commentary - December 2011
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
We expect GDP growth of between 1% and 2% in 2012, with modest but steady gains in employment. This should support continued gradual improvement in real estate fundamentals, given low new supply in most sectors. In this environment, we seek to identity markets with above-average employment (and income) trends. And in an election year that should present opportunities and risks, we will monitor how the results might affect employment in the financial and health care industries, and the Washington, D.C. market generally.
Emerging Markets Real Estate Investment Commentary Full Year 2011
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
Over the long term, we believe emerging market real estate securities are well positioned to benefit from secular trends such as expanding urban centers and the rise of the consumer class. In the near term, however, we expect volatility to continue as markets grapple with uncertainty about Europe and further deceleration in economic growth. In this challenging market environment, we continue to favor commercial landlords over developers.
Africa: Opportunities and Challenges in a Growing Economy
by Team of The Royce Funds,
As the South African economy continues to mature and other, even less developed, economies begin to thrive, we will keep our attention focused on company fundamentals, corporate governance, and what we think are attractively undervalued businesses with the potential to grow in the global economy. As the bulk of Africa's economies are frontier markets, still progressing toward the status of developing economies, the continent as a whole represents long-term opportunities that will require patience and diligence. Its resources and demographics are likely to make it well worth the wait.
Obama and The Market: The First Three Years
by Team of Bespoke Investment Group,
While his critics argue that Obama is one of the most anti-business Presidents in US history, a look at the equity market's performance since Obama was inaugurated shows a different picture. The chart below shows the performance of the DJIA during the first three years of each US President since 1900. As of last Friday, the DJIA has now risen 60% under President Obama, making him one of only five Presidents to see the Dow gain 50% or more in their first three years in office! After last Friday's rally, Obama moved narrowly ahead of Clinton.
Inflation: Wheres the Beef?
by Team of American Century Investments,
With inflation seemingly in check, we reevaluate the near- and longer-term inflation environment, and discuss implications for investor portfolios. It is easy to understand why this topic intrigues so many. Depending on your perspective, inflation can be said to be rising fairly rapidly from low levels seen just a few years ago; or it could be said to be quite restrained, given the calls in recent years for runaway inflation as a result of unprecedented U.S. monetary and fiscal policies and a number of pronounced global economic imbalances.
Developed Europe: Economic Review Fourth Quarter 2011
by Team of Thomas White International,
Germany: Unemployment fell to historically low levels. Exports grew in November, while businesses and consumers remained optimistic. U.K.: The services and construction sectors stayed buoyant. GDP grew 0.6 percent in the third quarter of 2011 France: The unemployment rate rose suddenly in the July after being in a downtrend for several quarters. Italy: The new government introduced the countrys third austerity package in 2011. Spain: Tax hikes and spending cuts were announced by a new conservative government.
Americas Economic Review: Fourth Quarter 2011
by Team of Thomas White International,
As the year 2011 ended, the clouds of pessimism about the economy lightened across the Americas region, as key data trends suggested that earlier fears of a steep downturn were unfounded. Financial markets stabilized as investors turned more optimistic about the outlook for 2012. Concerns over external risks, particularly about the European fiscal crisis, also calmed down as hope was renewed that enduring political solutions will be found for the fiscal challenges facing the developed countries.
Global Overview
by Team of Thomas White International,
Fears of a recession in developed economies such as the U.S. have receded as recent data releases indicate that economic activity has not weakened as much as thought earlier. Though European economies are still expected to see a decline, there is now increased optimism that the monetary union and the common currency will survive the crisis. Large European countries such as Spain and France have been able to sell new bonds at relatively affordable costs and the European Central Bank has cut its benchmark rate again, besides extending additional liquidity support to the regions banks.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
The season for predictions is behind us and we thought it might be fun to come up with a few predictions that go out on a limb, both positively and negatively. Here are five semi-wild, but possible predictions for 2012. 1: Jobs, especially manufacturing jobs, return to America. 2: Switching from the economy to politics, the Republicans will hold a majority in the House, although they will lose some seats. 3: Turning to the world, the euro survives in spite of its being badmouthed over the past several months, and it strengthens late in the year. ...
Spin City
by Team of Dana Investment Advisors,
The December jobs report was recently released and politicians are falling all over themselves to spin interpretations. It pays to look at these numbers in an objective way. As Mark Twain once said, Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. So here goes. The private economy created 212,000 net new jobs in December and the unemployment rate dropped to 8.5%. Most industry sectors added jobs, even construction added 17,000 jobs. The government lost 12,000 jobs, but that is good news as it indicates that government is paring back to better control their budgets.
Emerging Europe: Fourth Quarter 2011 Economic Review
by Team of Thomas White International,
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development was established in 1992 to help the former communist states in their transition to market-based economies. The EBRDs mandate includes investments in Russia and its satellite states such as Poland and Hungary. The Czech Republic, which was the first country to complete the transition process successfully, has come out from under the EBRD umbrella. According to the banks latest forecasts, GDP growth in the central and eastern European region will be approximately 4.5 percent in 2011 and about 3.2 percent in 2012.
Pacific Basin Market Overview December 2011
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
For much of the fourth quarter of 2011, anxiety surrounding the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis has kept the Pacific Basin equity markets largely range bound, although most indices managed to trend higher from their October lows with the help of unexpectedly buoyant economic data from the U.S. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Free Index including Japan gained 0.66% and the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Free Index gained 3.96%, resulting in declines of 17.31% and 17.98%, respectively, for the full year.
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