Search Results
Results 1,501–1,550
of 2,793 found.
Weekly Market Update
by Team of Castleton Partners,
After a strong summer rally, the first two weeks of September have not been kind to US financial markets, with both stock and bond markets generating negative returns. In the month to date, ten year Treasury yields have risen twenty five basis points to 2.60%, the highest such level since the first week of July.
Economic Update
by Team of Cambridge Advisors,
After a rocky month in July, stocks resumed their march higher in August. The S&P 500 was up 4.0% for the month and is up 9.9% year-to-date. The small cap Russell 2000 index also performed well for the month, up 5.0%. Year-to-date, small cap stocks have lagged and are up only 1.75% as of the end of August. International stocks continued to struggle in August and year-to-date with performance of -0.4% and +2.93% respectively.
Only 37% of Companies Are Seeing Rising Sales Estimates
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
Yesterday we noted the fact that EPS estimates have fallen versus 3 months ago for most stocks in the developed world. In a similar vein, today we note that top line estimates are rising for only 37% of stocks in the MSCI developed world index, meaning they are falling for 63% of stocks. The only region in which more than half of stocks are seeing rising sales estimates is North America, where 62% of companies have seen top line estimates rise versus three months ago.
Cyclicals: Early or Late
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
For the first part of the year, early cyclicals (consummer discretionary sector) in North America underperformed late cyclicals (energy, material and industrial sectors), which made perfect sense given the appearance of a strengthening economy and the tapering of FRB asset purchases. Recently, however, early cyclicals have come back to lead late cyclicals. Since June 23, early cyclicals have outperformed late cyclicals by 7%. In the chart below, we compare an equal weighted basket of early cyclical companies in North America against late cyclicals.
International Equity Commentary: July, 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
International equity prices saw a modest correction in July as geopolitical tensions worsened in Ukraine and the Middle East. The risk of these conflicts spreading to wider areas and pulling in more countries unnerved the markets.
Developed Europe: Regional Economic Review - Q2 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
Europes ability to sustain its economic recovery is back in the spotlight. The latest second quarter estimates of statistics agency Eurostat, which were released in mid-August, show that compared to the first quarter, GDP merely inched up 0.2 percent in the 28-country European Union (EU) but failed to grow at all in the 18-member Euro-zone.
Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: July, 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
Emerging market equity prices continued to outperform the developed markets in July and ended the month with moderate gains. Markets in Asia significantly outperformed during the month, helped by signs of stabilizing economic growth in major markets such as China.
The Modern Day Widow Maker Trade is to Short Treasuries
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
As treasury yields plunge again today to new 1-year lows (the 10 and 30-year treasury bond yields are both down 3bps to 2.33% and 3.07%, respectively), we are reminded of a popular trade over the last decade to short Japanese government bonds, which has aptly been named the "widow maker" trade.
Global Economic Overview: July 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
Recent economic data from the developed world have shown divergent trends while growth in the emerging economies appears to be stabilizing. The U.S. economy expanded at a faster than expected pace during the second quarter, more than offsetting the first quarter decline, which revised estimates show was not as severe as thought earlier.
Fed Revises Down Potential GDP In More Hawkish Minutes
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
In our latest quarterly presentation in July, we noted how spare capacity in the economy may be much smaller than is generally perceived. We found out today the FOMC came to similar conclusions in their latest FOMC meeting.
Americas: Regional Economic Review - Q2 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
Economic trends from the region during the second quarter were in line with earlier periods, as the developed economies in North America are seeing healthier growth while most of the emerging economies in Latin America are facing a slowdown.
5 Charts Showing The Taper Effect
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
We noted yesterday how treasury bond yields keep falling along with the reduction of fed purchases. This inspired us to dig deeper into our chart library to see how other asset classes or economic statistics have performed in relation to our taper model.
Not A Single Developed Sector Is Trading Below 22x P/E
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
Markets rarely turn on valuation levels alone. Most of the time it takes a case of irrational greed or fear to mark a turning point in the stock market. However, it is always wise to keep one eye on valuations in order to calibrate just how much more greed or fear can be squeezed out of current earnings.
Why Gilead Is The Most Exciting Growth Opportunity In 2014
by Team of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Earnings drive stock price in the long run and Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) is entering a remarkable period of what could only be called astounding future earnings growth. This has not gone unnoticed by the market, as the stock price has been on a steady ascent for the past several months.
A Change In Consumer Behavior?
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
Retail sales in the US were unchanged in July, which prompted us to dive into our chart library to figure out what may be going on underneath the surface of the economy. Job growth has been pretty solid this year, which when combined with increases in hours worked, has led to a an almost 4% year over year increase in personal income. So what gives?
Municipal Market Perspectives
Heightened international unrest and the likelihood of accelerating economic weakness in Europe will provide further support for fixed income securities. It is unlikely central banks will move from their current accommodative monetary positions anytime soon. Since we do not anticipate a meaningful upward move in Treasury rates, municipal bond prices should also benefit. Yields are likely to remain close to current levels and even possibly move lower. Strong market technical factors will also provide support.
Global Economic Overview: June 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
Recent data from the major countries suggest that the global economy is emerging out of the slower growth period experienced at the beginning of this year. Though the Euro-zone economy continues to see softer trends, data from the U.S. has become more positive.
Middle East/Africa: Regional Economic Review - Q3 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
With a geopolitical setback and a positive market development, the Middle East had a mixed second quarter. Amid the civil war in Syria, another conflict erupted in the region during the quarter as a militant group started systematically seizing territory from Iraqi security forces.
Developed Asia Pacific: Regional Economic Review - Q2 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
During the first half of 2014, developed Asia Pacific economies faced challenges arising from lukewarm consumption and meek trade growth. Most countries in the region tried boosting their economies with a mix of infrastructure spending and loose monetary policies. Countries that had their trade skewed to China, Asias largest economy, faced prospects of slowing trade.
International Equity Commentary: June-2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
International equity prices advanced further in June on expectations that the major developed economies are likely to see healthier trends during the second half of this year. Japan and Canada saw robust gains during the month while markets in Europe underperformed.
Weekly Market Update
by Team of Castleton Partners,
In a week devoid of meaningful economic data, financial markets were once again led by intensifying geopolitical events. With stock indices across the globe recording losses of 1%-3% on the week, US ten year yields declined to a low of 2.35% on Fridaya new low for 2014 and the lowest such point since June 2013. Since the onset of the Ukraine crisis in February, and later followed by the Iraq/ ISIS and the Israel/ Gaza conflicts, global sovereign yields have declined to levels unthinkable at the turn of the year.
The Potential Impacts of Geopolitical Risks on Financial Markets
by Team of Manning & Napier,
As a global investment management firm, it is critically important that we monitor any and all varieties of risk that could threaten the performance of financial markets both domestically and abroad. Today, developments in a number of regions, particularly the Middle East and Eastern Europe, have brought geopolitical risk to the forefront of our minds. Below we describe some of the issues, why risks are rising, and how they may impact financial markets.
Detailing The European Correction
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
Over the last 50 days European equity markets have taken a beating. The average stock in Europe is down 6%, and both Portugal and Austria are down more than 10%--putting them in correction territory. Down almost 9%, Germany isn't far behind.
Grey Owl Q2 Investment Commentary
by Team of Grey Owl Capital Management,
Even after a second quarter rebound, gross domestic product (GDP) growth is barely positive for the first half of 2014. That has not stopped the S&P 500 from climbing to new highs. In fact, GDP growth has been weak for the entire recovery and, while improved, corporate sales and earnings also leave something to be desired. Stock market returns look better still, but only when compared to these weak results. Looking over a longer timeframe, the US equity market is approaching fifteen years of low single-digit returns.
Stock Market Valuations Suggest That This Bull Market Still Has Teeth
by Team of LPL Financial,
Losing under 3% in a week seems a minor concern given historical market ups and downs; nevertheless, investors may begin to wonder if stock market valuations are signaling a decline. Since the end of the last significant sell-off for stocks, the market has been in a pretty consistent upward trend. Valuation is a poor market-timing indicator; while valuation should always be considered, it is a blunt tool that should be taken into broader context.
Weekly Market Update
by Team of Castleton Partners,
After months of record low volatility and little directional bias in price, fixed income markets were finally awoken from their summer doldrums, driven by a string of robust economic data. Not to be outdone, equity markets sold off sharply on the data, with the DJIA recording a 317 point drop on Thursday, its largest such decline since March.
Second Quarter 2014 Investment Commentary
by Team of Litman Gregory,
Overall, our macro view and assessment of the risks and returns across the major asset classes has not changed meaningfully since last quarter. We continue to see the U.S. and global economies on a slow path of recovery from the 2008 financial crisis. ... Despite our more positive fundamental outlook, we also continue to view the markets as too dependent on central bank largesse, too short-term focused, and too complacent about the risks and imbalances that remain in the global economy in the aftermath of the financial crisis.
The Bank of Englands Balancing Act
by Team of Manning & Napier,
The United Kingdom (U.K.) has recently been a subject of increased attention in the media and investment circles. An improving economyparticularly relative to its Eurozone neighborshas provided a reason for optimism among economists and investors alike. However, rapidly rising home prices and accommodative monetary policy have also raised potential red flags.
Treasury Bond Yields Still Catching Bid in Line with Slowing QE
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
Last week we wrote that the bond market is following perfectly the reduction of QE with new 1-year lows and with today's bond moves that trend is still firmly in place. In what may seem counter intuitive, treasury bond yields have had a high positive correlation with the rate of Federal Reserve asset purchases. When the rate of Fed asset purchases rises, bond yields rise, and vice versa. If one thinks of Fed asset purchases as stimulative to growth and inflation expectations (the two components that make up risk-free bond yields) then this positive relationship makes sense.
Weekly Market Update
by Team of Castleton Partners,
Increasing geopolitical tensions, mixed economic data, low volatility, and little directional bias in interest rates; sound familiar? Last week produced more of the same in fixed income, as prices across the entire maturity spectrum remain in a well-defined (and very narrow) trading range. With a yield of 2.48%, the ten year US Treasury note has been oscillating within a twenty basis point band since May 1st: 2.65%- 2.45%.
Emerging Europe: Regional Economic Review - Q2 2014
by Team of Thomas White International,
During the second quarter of the year, the Emerging Europe region appeared to be displaying divergent trends. The fallout of the Ukraine crisis was not as damaging to the Russian economy as feared, with the economy even expanding during the review period. However, as the IMF pointed out, the sanctions imposed by the West appear to have dented investor confidence.
Maintaining A Constant Standard Of Living Is Very Difficult
by Team of Optimus Advisory Group,
Ever wonder why rises in the Consumer Price Index ("CPI") seem low compared to your own personal experiences? Or why social security annual cost of living increases seem to get smaller and smaller? Or why inflation-adjusted pensions can't seem to keep up with general price increases? Or why the American worker gets such meager annual raises (if at all) that they seem to fall further behind year after year?
Keep An Eye on Commercial Bank Liquidity Trends
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
An interesting development this year has been the increase in purchases of US Treasury bonds by commercial banks. In the chart below, we show the year over year increase in the holding of US Treasury bonds by US commercial banks set against the interest rate on 10-year UST. This goes some way in understanding the move lower in rates this year.
Does Active Management Succeed in International Small-Caps?
by Team of The Royce Funds,
Divergent conclusions about the relative success of active management in the international small-cap universe prompted us to do our own examination, which stresses the importance of choosing the appropriate benchmark and evaluating the consistency of a fund's performance over long-term time periods.
U.S. Equities Continue to Look Attractive: Equity Investment Outlook
by Team of Osterweis Capital Management,
As we sit down to write this Outlook we are struck by two trends: the consistency of the economic recovery in the U.S. and the dramatic escalation of geopolitical turmoil. Whether these two trends will collide to derail the bull market is an open question, but usually geopolitical flare-ups have only short-term effects and do not overwhelm long-term economic trends. Thus, they tend to appear as hiccups in stock market progress.
Should EMC Corp Break Itself Apart?: FAST FUNdamental Analysis
by Team of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
On Monday a Wall Street Journal article reported that the hedge fund Elliott Management Corp has taken a more than $1 billion stake in EMC Corp (EMC) and revealed that it intends to petition the company to break itself apart. Elliott believes that this would unlock shareholder value. Implicit in that thesis would be the idea that EMC Corp is not receiving full value from the market. This article is offered as an in-depth analysis of the fundamental value of EMC Corp in relation to how the market is evaluating its business.
Weekly Market Update
by Team of Castleton Partners,
The intensifying geopolitical backdrop of Ukraine/ Russia, Israel/ Gaza, and Iraq/ ISIS continued to influence market activity and investment flows last week. As a result, intermediate and longer-dated Treasury rates were able to revisit their low yields of the year, last touched in May. However, the one thematic constant that continued unabated last week was the persistent flattening of the yield curvethe one trend that we are unwilling to fade.
German And French 10-2 Spread Flattest In The Last 5 Years
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
The front-end of the yield curve has flattened in many bond markets this year. The German and French bond markets closed last week with their 10-year bond yield minus 2-year bond yield spread at it's smallest level since January 2009. The German spread fell to 1.13% while the French spread dropped to 1.42%. The 10-2 spread for the United States has also narrowed this year to 2%. That's the lowest level in a little over a year.
Decomposing the S&P 500 PE Ratio by Market Cap: Most Stocks Look Expensive
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
Back in December we wrote a piece entitled, "Decomposing the S&P 500 PE Ratio: How Can the Market PE be "Low" and Stocks be Expensive at the Same Time?" in which we showed how the market capitalization of the S&P 500, and many other indexes for that matter, is dominated by a few mega-cap companies which distorts index level valuation statistics. It's been a few months so we thought we'd provide an update on that analysis.
Weekly Market Update
by Team of Castleton Partners,
Geopolitical headlines, coupled with renewed stress in European markets, led to a strong rally in US Treasuries last week. Further supporting the decline in interest rates was the perceived dovish overtone to the minutes of the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook
by Team of Guggenheim Investments,
Certain areas of leveraged credit are overvalued, particularly CCC-rated bonds and bank loans, but often some of the best profits come in the final phase of a cycle. Low yields on U.S. Treasury bonds and European sovereign debt have kept the global search-for-yield theme alive and have lured more capital into U.S. credit markets, helping the ongoing rally in high-yield bonds and bank loans, which gained 2.4 percent and 1.2 percent (as represented by the Credit Suisse High Yield Index and Credit Suisse Institutional Leveraged Loan Index) in the second quarter of 2014, respectively.
Risk of European Counter-Cyclical Underperformance in 2H2014
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
Last week, we noted the outperformance of European counter-cyclicals and the group's relationship to the German Bund (here). A quick look at sector performance in Europe so far this year shows the top three market leaders have indeed been the counter-cyclicals (with the exception of the Consumer Staples sector).
Results 1,501–1,550
of 2,793 found.
