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Results 51–100 of 104 found.

Thanksgiving Pie
by Doug MacKay and Bill Hoover of Broadleaf Partners, 11/4/10
Where might the unexpected upside come for investors? Two areas. Dividends may attract some money away from the bond market as a source of yield, providing some relative capital appreciation potential for stocks. On a longer term secular basis, the emerging market consumer may also be worth paying attention to. As the wealth of overseas economies grows and makes its way into the hands of its citizens, a growing middle class should emerge with the same needs and wants that many of those in the United States have enjoyed for years.

Chain Gangs and Pipe Dreams
by Doug Mackay and Bill Hoover of Broadleaf Partners, 9/28/10
Last Friday David Tepper, who runs a very successful hedge fund, made a convincing no-lose case for stocks in an interview on CNBC. In the stock market as in sports, anytime winning seems easy, it is usually a decent signal that you might be treading in dangerous territory. During such times, it has usually paid to increase rather than decrease one's aversion to risk. Equities could indeed move higher from here and likely will, but buying under the influence of a pipe dream that they are a no-lose proposition would be as foolhardy as an offense with no defense.

Bullish Sea Change in a Land of Little Victories
by Doug MacKay and Bill Hoover of Broadleaf Partners, 9/1/10
The odds of slower growth rather than a double-dip went up considerably with Wednesday morning's Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index release and probably even more so for the markets as a whole. The index came out at a strong 56.3, compared to expectations of 52.9. Generally speaking a reading under 50 indicates contraction rather than expansion in the manufacturing sector. While the manufacturing sector expansion may not represent a sea change akin to what investors became accustomed to in the go-go 1990's, it is nevertheless positive.

Medicine for a New Normal
by Doug MacKay and Bill Hoover of Broadleaf Partners, 8/13/10
We could be on the cusp of a major sea change in the markets, one in which cash-rich companies - which are in far better shape than governments - begin to compete for investors through the dynamics of dividend yield. Investors who can start to capitalize on these changes now are likely to benefit as the groundswell for all things bonds begins to find a suitable and potentially even safer path towards stocks with rising dividends.

Caribbean Blue
by Doug MacKay and Bill Hoover of Broadleaf Partners, 7/21/10
There is no doubt that economic growth is slowing after a significant reacceleration off the Great Recession lows that occurred 16 months ago. The only question at this point is how much it slows. After peaking in the four percent vicinity, most economists now expect GDP growth to slow to something in the 2 percent range. It is nearly always the case that when deceleration occurs during a recovery, folks in our industry begin to wonder if growth will merely slow to a 'soft landing' outcome or if we will crash land in a 'double dip' recession.

Bed Pans and Bunk Beds
by Doug MacKay and Bill Hoover of Broadleaf Partners, 6/23/10
Going forward, we may indeed be operating in an extended period of slower growth, the so-called 'new normal.' In such an environment, nominal gains in the stock market may be lower and dividends and active management may therefore play a more dominant role for investors who outperform. Broadleaf has been favoring stability over cyclicality, except where cyclical improvements have gone unrewarded, and innovators over companies that participate in more mature markets. They have also favored domestic companies rather than those with international sales exposure.

Burgers, Parades & Baseball Games
by Doug MacKay and Bill Hoover of Broadleaf Partners, 5/28/10
This year should bring only measured gains in equity markets, even as the economy demonstrates solid growth. A near-term range of 1050 on the downside and 1150 on the upside may likely persist until we get some sense of closure on both Europe and offshore drilling. If we can get past these issues, a year-end target of 1250 would still seem plausible, roughly the level where the markets traded when Lehman went down a year and a half ago. The good news is that this year-end target now represents a 14 percent gain from current levels as opposed to only 5 percent one month ago.

Fighting a Good Greece Fire
by Doug MacKay and Bill Hoover of Broadleaf Partners, 5/10/10
Recently televised riots on the streets of Greece, a collapsing euro, and ineffectual monetary policy efforts by a politically divided European Union have all heightened concerns and comparisons of the current Greece 'fire' to our own mortgage mess a couple of years ago. While our banks and financial system are much less exposed to Greek and European debt than the European banks were exposed to our own mortgage problems, our Fed and Treasury departments, unlike Europe, stood united in doing whatever they could to prevent a second Great Depression.

Chocolate and the Mathematics of Loss
by Doug Mackay and Bill Hoover of Broadleaf Partners, 4/21/10
During the depths of the downturn a little over one year ago, many investors were quick to provide a lesson on the mathematics of loss. A 50 percent decline would require a subsequent 100 percent gain - not a 50 percent gain - to get back to even. Such truths, it seemed, were a justification for remaining bearish and a comfort perhaps to some, in making the painful decision to sell. Unfortunately, while the mathematics of loss is indeed an investing truth, it may also be an author of lies by suggesting that the only investor goal worth its salt is 'getting back to even.

Changing Seasons
by Doug Mackay and Bill Hoover of Broadleaf Partners, 3/12/10
The economy is shifting from its early recovery phase of rapid growth into a late expansion phase of moderate growth. While low interest rates were critical to market success in 2009 during the early stages of the expansion, economic growth patterns tend to have greater influence in later stages. As economic seasons change, it will be necessary for investors to weed out bad stocks, prune healthy ones and transplant names in order to maintain the vitality of their overall portfolios.

Fun with Charts
by Doug Mackay and Bill Hoover of Broadleaf Partners, 2/19/10
Investors need not worry about the Fed's recent increase in the discount rate by 25 basis points, to 75 basis points, even though this rate hike may be the first in a series of many such increases. The last time the Fed started to raise rates, in mid-2004, the S&P 500 climbed from roughly 1100 to 1567 three years later.

Easy Money
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 2/2/10
The authors are bullish on US equities, noting that ?that at current rates of improvement, S&P 500 profits could be back to the peak levels achieved in 2006 by the second quarter of this year,? and when profits were at that level, the S&P 500 was 30% higher than it is now. The economy is stronger than many suspect and they forecast ?a recovery based on the strength of corporate profits and business spending rather than the consumer.?

Fourth Quarter 2009 Review
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 1/7/10

Shifting Gears
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 12/17/09

Painting the House
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 11/12/09

Sitting on My Porch
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 9/4/09

Look Forward and Smile
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 8/6/09

All Aboard!
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 7/14/09

Market Review and Outlook
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 7/2/09

Technical, Practical, Theoretical; Observations on Bonds and Inflation
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 6/16/09

Bear Market Bubbles
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 6/5/09

Answering Your Question
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 5/20/09

Why God Made Mom's; The View from the Second Grade
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 5/8/09

The Road to Recovery
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 4/30/09

Valleys, Foothills and New Mountains
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 4/6/09

Something for Nothing, Free Lunches and Fool's Gold
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 3/12/09

Caressing and Stressing, Shopping and Rebalancing
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 2/25/09

Black Holes and Red Giants
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 2/20/09

A January Dud, Bad Banks and Earnings Insights
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 2/2/09

Revisiting Lows
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 1/14/09

Looking Back at 2008
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 12/25/08

Mortgage Rates, A Treasury Bubble and Oil's Cumeuppance
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 12/5/08

Unemployment, The Consumer and the Faith of Ancients
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 11/12/08

Valuations and Extremes
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 10/28/08

Finish the Race
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 10/23/08

True Value and the Great I Am
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 10/10/08

Weighing In
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 10/9/08

Third Quarter Review
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 10/3/08

A New Bailout Plan?
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 9/26/08

What Happened Today
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 9/15/08

Buy the Bleeding: Time to Revisit Energy & Industrials?
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 9/10/08

Uncertainty and the Birth of Black Swans
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 9/8/08

Finding Michael Phelps
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 8/13/08

Oil, Earnings, and When To Sell
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 7/31/08

Ugly Days, Springboards, and Silver Linings
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 7/13/08

The Commodities Debate
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 6/3/08

Bubbles, Barron's and Broadleaf
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 5/19/08

Storms, Steroids, and Sunnier Skies
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 4/25/08

First Quarter Review
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 4/2/08

What's an Investor to do?
by MacKay of Broadleaf Partners, 3/17/08
Results 51–100 of 104 found.