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The Pace of Trump’s Policy Agenda: Three Big ‘Ifs’
by Libby Cantrill of PIMCO, 2/24/17

It’s hard to believe that U.S. President Donald Trump has only been in office for a month, given the dizzying activity in Washington. Yet our observations from before the inauguration seem to be holding true, at least so far: Governing is indeed harder than campaigning.

Trump’s First Year: What’s Realistic
by Libby Cantrill of PIMCO, 1/20/17

With the inauguration of the 45th president imminent and the market’s high expectations for policymaking, what is realistic for investors to expect from Washington in 2017?

Will the Trump Administration Target the DOL Rule?
by Libby Cantrill of PIMCO, 12/20/16

With deregulation seemingly high on the agenda for President-elect Donald Trump, the fate of the Department of Labor’s “fiduciary rule” is now unclear.

Investors: Focus on State Polling as U.S. Election Nears
by Libby Cantrill of PIMCO, 11/4/16

With less than a week to go until the U.S. presidential election, investor anxiety about next Tuesday’s outcome is running high, as evidenced by the recent move in risk assets.

The Unexpected Ripple Effect of New Bank Capital Requirements
by Libby Cantrill, William G. De Leon, Tracey Jordal, Courtney A. Walker of PIMCO, 4/16/15
In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, lawmakers and regulators promulgated sweeping regulations that sought to reduce systemic risk and promote market stability.

Unintended Consequences of Staying Early Termination Rights
by William De Leon, Tracey Jordal, Libby Cantrill, Courtney Walker of PIMCO, 12/3/14
The topic of too big to fail has been an intense area of focus for policymakers and market participants, and for good reason: Everyone has a vested interest in avoiding a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis and its corresponding aftershocks.

Setting Global Standards for Central Clearinghouses
by William G. De Leon, Tracey Jordal, Libby Cantrill of PIMCO, 10/11/14
While a possible central counterparty (CCP) failure is a very remote event, there is no one single solution that alone will prevent it. However, PIMCO believes that if several conditions are met, including 1) a CCP is capitalized correctly and sufficiently with its own skin in the game, 2) segregation of client assets are consistent across cleared derivatives, 3) CCPs have a way to access cash easily to manage liquidity and 4) stress tests are consistently performed and reviewed, a CCP will be much more likely to recover than to be forced into a resolution process.

Congress Will Go Out With a Whimper, But the Next Could Come In With a Roar
by Libby Cantrill of PIMCO, 9/4/14
A government shutdown is highly unlikely this year, and most need-to-pass bills will likely pass either before the election or during the "lame duck" session of Congress. Should Republicans take the Senate, we should expect heightened policy uncertainty around issues such as the debt ceiling increase in 2015.

Smoother Sailing in Washington?
by Libby Cantrill of PIMCO, 2/25/14
With the debt ceiling increase out of the way, we should expect many fewer fiscal fights ? and less policy uncertainty and potential market disruptions ? emanating from Washington in 2014. We also expect Washington to do less harm from an economic growth perspective. We estimate that fiscal drag in 2014 will be about 0.4% of GDP. As we enter an election cycle, we expect Congress will do very little that is constructive for the economy in the year ahead ? meaning that tax reform and an immigration overhaul will likely have to wait.

Watch for the Signals on Policy Direction Out of Washington
by Libby Cantrill of PIMCO, 10/18/13
As expected, the deal that passed Congress on October 16 is another short-term, kick-the-can package. The big question is whether we will have to endure yet another saga next year, when Congress is once again forced to address the debt ceiling and fund the government. We are skeptical on the outlook for the bipartisan budget conference committee: The main obstacles to a grand bargain that have existed for the past two years continue today.

Washington's Prolonged Saga and the Market's Reaction
by Josh Timmons and Libby Cantrill of PIMCO, 10/4/13
The federal government shutdown represents yet another self-inflicted wound to already modest growth. While the market seems to be mostly sanguine about the government shutdown, a breach of the debt ceiling which we feel is highly unlikely would be incredibly negative for financial markets.

Policy Uncertainty on the Rise
by Libby Cantrill, Josh Thimons of PIMCO, 8/27/13
Congress seems to be digging in and ramping up the rhetoric in advance of a possible government shutdown, a debt ceiling increase and a probable selection of a new Fed chair. We think it is likely policymakers will agree to a short-term deal to fund the government and avert a shutdown, and also cobble together a resolution on the debt ceiling, although neither is likely until the last minute. The Fed chair debate will likely continue to sway markets over the next few months, leading to greater uncertainty and greater market volatility.

Washington May Be Ready to Take a Break From the Brink
by Josh Thimons, Libby Cantrill of PIMCO, 3/15/13
With Washingtons dysfunction not in the forefront, the economy could be more unencumbered to grow, with markets trending in a similar direction. The Feds proactive policies should continue to favor overweight positions in the five-year through 10-year part of the Treasury yield curve and support interest-rate-sensitive sectors of the economy most notably housing. In the longer term, however, we would advise investors to be cautious: Without meaningful long-term structural deficit reform, real growth will inevitably lag in the U.S.

From Cliff to Ceiling: No Clear Signal for Investors
by Libby Cantrill, Josh Thimons of PIMCO, 1/8/13
We expect the last minute deal in the lame duck session to result in about 1.3% of GDP contraction, slightly less than our earlier prediction of about 1.5%. The compromise eliminated (or at least delayed) the possibility of the most damaging equity market outcomes. The deal failed to set up a framework for structural deficit reform in 2013. Almost immediately, Congress must address the debt ceiling, the sequester and the continuing resolution to keep the government funded.

After the Election, Fiscal Cliff Outcome May Surprise
by Libby Cantrill, Josh Thimons of PIMCO, 11/12/12
Our base case for a fiscal cliff resolution continues to be a lame-duck mini-deal that would reflect about 1.5% of GDP in fiscal contraction in 2013 (vs. nearly 5% without a deal). But the dynamics of polarization and partisanship that played a role in past dysfunctional negotiations may have gotten worse. On a more optimistic note, it is widely known that second-term presidents are largely interested in their legacies spearheading noteworthy, bipartisan and lasting accomplishments for the history books.

Falling Off the Fiscal Cliff?
by Libby Cantrill, Josh Thimons of PIMCO, 9/28/12
When we look at how the fiscal debate is likely to play out, rather than how it should play out, our base case is the fiscal cliff will likely be resolved in a short-term deal before the end of the year, making what was a cliff more like fiscal black diamond still dangerous, but not likely to land the economy in a body cast.
Results 51–66 of 66 found.