Morningstar’s Ben Johnson Recaps the Year in ETFs and Looks Ahead to 2025

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On this week’s episode of the “ETF Prime” podcast, host Nate Geraci was joined by Todd Rosenbluth, Head of Research at VettaFi. Rosenbluth and Geraci broke down recent polling data from VettaFi’s 2025 Market Outlook Symposium. Afterward, Ben Johnson, CFA, head of client solutions, asset management at Morningstar, hopped on the podcast to discuss the future of spot bitcoin ETFs.

Betting Big on Equities

To get started, Geraci and Rosenbluth dove into the polling results from the VettaFi 2025 Market Outlook Symposium. The event was held earlier in December. The VettaFi polling data broke down how the Symposium’s audience are preparing for financial markets in 2025.

Looking at the overall outlook for Symposium attendees, Geraci assessed that roughly 75% of respondents are bullish on equities. Noting that he was expecting advisors to be more cautious about equities next year, Geraci asked Rosenbluth what his take on the matter was.

Rosenbluth agreed that respondents were more bullish on equities than expected. However, he did note that there should certainly be some opportunity for equity returns to broaden out in 2025. That would set the stage for equal-weight, small-cap, or midcap approaches to succeed as well.

“You know, when the market is too bullish, that sets us up for disappointment,” Rosenbluth added. “Corrections are normal, and corrections will likely happen in 2025, just because they happen year after year after year.”

Keeping Risk in Mind

Moving on, Geraci then looked at a VettaFi Symposium question on market risks. When asked what the biggest risk to capital markets in 2025 will be, 47% of attendees selected geopolitical risks. The next two largest answers for the topic were earnings surprises for the Magnificent Seven and economic/trade issues for China.

Geraci added that this polling data also presented surprising answers, asserting that he would have assumed the top answer would have been policy from the Federal Reserve. Looking to Rosenbluth, Geraci asked him if he had any thoughts about the responses.

Rosenbluth noted that investors have plenty of options to tap into ETFs that can mitigate some of these risk concerns. As examples, he highlighted the defined outcome, structured protection, and covered call ETFs offered from sources like NEOS, Calamos, and Innovator.

“I think those products offer you the optimism to be bullish and control your destiny, either with partial protection or even full protection on the downside, which is just novelty within the ETF industry,” Rosenbluth noted.

Momentum Mounting for Securitized Debt

Pivoting to fixed income, Geraci examined which areas of fixed income Symposium attendees deemed to be the most attractive heading into 2025. He assessed that 38% chose investment grade, while 23% said securitized debt. Coming in third place was high yield, at 21%. Noting that these responses made sense to him, Geraci asked Rosenbluth to weigh in.

Rosenbluth noted that the amount of support for securitized debt actually jumped out for him. He added that the ETF market provides a wide variety of tools to generate support for the securitized market.

“That’s exciting to me, because there’s nothing wrong with investment grade corporate bonds,” assessed Rosenluth. “But it’s exciting to me to see these newer areas of the marketplace get the attention.”

Could Bitcoin Lose Its Magic?

To close out this week’s podcast, Geraci was then joined by Ben Johnson, CFA, Head of Client Solutions, Asset Management at Morningstar. As a yearly tradition, Geraci and Johnson recap the year in ETFs and look ahead to what the next year may bring.

Last year, one of the main points of discussion that the two focused on at the time was investor interest in the then-unreleased spot Bitcoin ETFs. Johnson noted that flows for spot Bitcoin ETFs have vastly outperformed how he expected them to go. Geraci then asked Johnson what he expects from these funds next year.

Johnson noted that some alternative investment classes tend to lose some of their overall interest when they become more mainstream. When this happens, these investment classes may see less volatility and lower outsized returns.

“I think a lot of the future really depends on how much magic is left in this asset class,” said Johnson. “And then, from an allocator’s point of view, does it really make sense to improve the overall sort of complexion of a portfolio, to consider any allocation?”