The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), providing forecasts for energy markets. This article presents the annual production outlooks for crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), comparing the May 2026 projections against the previous month's estimates. These forecasts are particularly relevant for energy infrastructure companies operating in the U.S.
The Role of Energy Infrastructure in the Economy
Energy infrastructure forms the bridge between energy production (supply) and consumption (demand). It includes the transportation, storage, and processing of crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs through a network of pipelines, terminals, and other infrastructure.
"The global economy requires vast amounts of energy. As the world’s largest producer of oil, natural gas, and NGLs, energy infrastructure plays a critical role in connecting US energy production with domestic and global demand," adds Stacy Morris, Head of Index Product Research at TMX VettaFi.
U.S. Crude Oil Production Outlook
The May 2026 STEO shows an increase in both the near-term and long-term forecasts for U.S. crude oil production compared to the April 2026 estimates. The forecast for 2026 was raised by 1.03% to 13.65 million barrels per day (MMBpd). Most notably, the estimate for 2027 shows a forecast of 14.10 MMBpd, which represents a 1.10% increase from the April estimate of 13.94 MMBpd. Based on the latest figures, this results in a projected yearly growth of 0.5% from 2025 to 2026, and a robust growth of 3.3% from 2026 to 2027.
U.S. Natural Gas Production Outlook
The forecast for U.S. marketed natural gas production showed an increase to forecasts in the May 2026 STEO. The 2026 forecast saw a upward revision of 1.0% to 121.82 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) and the long-term estimate for 2027 was raised by 2.1% to 126.791 Bcf/d. These updates represent a projected yearly growth rate of 2.9% from 2025 to 2026, and further growth of 4.1% from 2026 to 2027.
U.S. Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) Production Outlook
Natural Gas Plant Liquids (NGLs) production forecasts show a strong upward trajectory in the May 2026 STEO. The 2026 forecast saw an increase of 1.2% to 7.78 MMBpd compared to the April estimate of 7.70 MMBpd. Additionally, the estimate for 2027 was raised by 1.3% to 8.19 MMBpd from the previous month's estimate of 8.08 MMBpd. This reflects a yearly growth rate of 4.1% growth from 2025 to 2026, and an additional 5.2% growth from 2026 to 2027.
To provide a clearer view of the long-term shifts in this month's outlook, the following table summarizes the updated 2027 production forecasts for crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs compared to last month’s estimates.
ETFs related to the energy infrastructure space include: the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) and the Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF (ENFR).
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